MARKET AT ....WHAT????......FTI TOLD YA SO

[kman]

He's in Texas tonight....having a laugh...sent me a message to share...the 62 Impaler is done and on it's way to my house....could be some fun ..drive speedy my friends

[frankq]

kman? KMAN!!! Where the hell have you been??

[kman]

 well.....you know me Q.....Love the brownies.....and it does make me laugh to see the armchair quarterback board...Drove the Mustang down to FTI's house.....and Frank is driving up to my house in the 62 Impaler....Dinner at two vines...should be fun

[frankq]

Nice!!!! Have fun....and go easy on the "brownies".

[usaone]

Need some pics of the '62.

[Deleted]

enjoy the brownies....r u kidding!

life is short, and in this case, you two gents have "earned" the just desserts

have fun...enjoy life....and keep sending us a tidbit now and then

     give FTI a big hello from the "rat pack"

[Steady As She Goes]

Absolutely ...

A big SHOUT-OUT to kman and FTI.

Have a great time!

[kman]

Dow is ready to launch...soon...pull back frst

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Buy on the dips hold on the rips! 

[kman]

Hey..so Aman....the wife says you may be heading soon to a natural wonder of the world near me

[Virgil Showlion]

You guys are too much.

Glad that FTI is doing well in the markets.

[kman]

he is...and he was correct....and will be.....it's just a 4 hour drive...dinner on us if you chooe to

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

May 15, 2013 21:43:45 GMT -5 kman said:

Hey..so Aman....the wife says you may be heading soon to a natural wonder of the world near me

 We were just talking about that today actually, too funny.   All we have to do is get the thing booked now, the weeks are deposited and payed for.   What is the best time? I kinda want to see it in Sept....  

[jarrett1]

Only the Niagara falls....markets go up!

[jarrett1]

Stand back and side step this amatuer hour...

There’s been a lot of talk lately about the Federal Reserve tapering off its so-called “quantitative easing” (QE3) program. Just in case you’ve been meditating in a cave somewhere for the past couple of years, that program involves the Fed buying $85 billion of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed bonds each month.

The objective of the program was to drive down long-term interest rates, to encourage corporate and personal borrowing, to increase spending, to boost economic growth, and to lower unemployment. Economists will be debating whether it’s been successful for years to come. That’s not my purpose here.

I’m concerned with the market’s reaction to even the mention of a possible end to the program. Even the possibility of lessening purchases, let alone ending them, has sent chills through the bond market and worried stock prices as well. I believe those draconian fears are not well-founded, and I’d like to share some data to back up my thinking.

My understanding is that about half of those monthly purchases went to buy some of the bonds sold by the U. S. Treasury to finance the national debt. For a nice round number, let’s assume the Fed bought around $500 billion each year of new Treasury debt.

In the years following the Great Recession, our national debt increased by almost $1.5 trillion each year. Even last year, fiscal 2012, our budget deficit was -$1.087 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office (www.cbo.gov). That means the Fed has been buying about one-half to one-third of our new debt annually. The rest has been going into private hands, or the coffers of foreign governments.

For fiscal 2013, however, the CBO estimates the deficit at -$642 billion. And, the projections fall to -$560 billion and -$378 billion for fiscal 2014 and fiscal 2015, respectively. If those figures are anywhere near accurate, do we need the Fed to continue buying $500 billion of bonds each year?

My answer is an emphatic NO! The private sector should have first call on those securities, with the Fed stepping in only if private demand isn’t enough. Applying the percentages of the past couple of years, the Fed should consider tapering off to $25 billion per month ($300 billion annually) this year and just $10 billion to $15 billion per month, or even less, in the following years.

What do you think?

[kman]

I think you know what you're talking about there sunshine

[frankq]

I think in a month people will be wishing they had bought into the "Fed Panic" weakness. The fact that the Fed will be pulling out has been a given since day one. The fact that the Fed is pulling out because the economy is improving is a good thing. That's what is supposed to happen!!Once we shake out the day by day traders and correct this market, which has been hot since New Years Day, we can start buying some quality companies. Don't get caught up in the hour by hour talking head commentary. I think you're on to something there Jarrett...... Welcome.

[jarrett1]

  Thank you sir!

[sunrnr]

Jun 20, 2013 15:07:31 GMT -5 jarrett1 said:

  Thank you sir!

[frankq]

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jun 20, 2013 11:36:54 GMT -5 jarrett1 said:

What do you think?

I think there is more to it than just the Fed's eventually easing at play here. The BRIC countries are slowing and rising interest rates are having an impact on bond sales in emerging markets, or I should say a negative effect on bond sales.

The thing with bears that I have realized, there is always a reason to panic. For all hyper inflation talk from money printing that we have heard, there is currently a credit crunch in China and the EU, and therein lies the problem. The bears have been so focused on QE and what they perceived to be the truth, they have missed that for the last four years there wasn't mountains of cash building up in very many places, and so now we enter the second stage of this recovery.

I have mentioned this second stage a few times over the last year or so, this trend is what I like to call the strength in the weakness. The USA is now the bright spot in the global economy and everywhere else now has to work though a mountain of shit. War in the mid east that is spreading to a recession plagued Europe, protests over better wages and standard of living from Brazil to China, smog so bad in Singapore you can't even go outside, and here we are getting ready for our summer vacations and Independence celebrations... 

"Jarrett" we have chatted for a couple years now about the slow motion plane crash that will be the Chinese economy unraveling, now it's time for all these mainstream guys to finally wrap their head around the fact that the USA is going to lead us forward...   

China Poses Global Growth Risk as Li Squeezes Credit

The aim is to deliver sustainable, more-even economic expansion closer to 7 percent than the rates faster than 9 percent witnessed in recent years. The risk is that getting the transition wrong will stifle credit and hurt activity at home and abroad just as the Federal Reserve pivots toward withdrawing stimulus.

“I wasn’t too worried up until this week,” said Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd, which manages the equivalent of more than $119 billion. “Things are quite a lot different in China than might have been expected. It does potentially pose risks for global growth.”

Really?  You mean empty cities filled with empty malls isn't going to work out?? 

Fedex's earnings were off 50 some % y-o-y because of the slowdown in the emerging markets, and Darden missed and gave poor guidance sighting Obamacare as a headwind.  

Stay frosty my friends. 

[usaone]

I posted on the "other" board a week ago that I think we have made the highs for the year.

I think we are also a only going a few % higher until 2017 and then the real Bull market begins. I'm a long term Bull but we have more housekeeping to do.

Still plenty of ways to make money in the meantime though.

[jarrett1]

and now for a flash back to a fonder time and memories for some...enjoy:

notmsnmoney.proboards.com/thread/306

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Good times indeed jarrett, the wrong person left in 2011 that is for sure.   Can't go back though, it's time for the future.. Why not   a bit? 

Jun 24, 2013 8:59:17 GMT -5 usaone said:

I posted on the "other" board a week ago that I think we have made the highs for the year.

I think we are also a only going a few % higher until 2017 and then the real Bull market begins. I'm a long term Bull but we have more housekeeping to do.

Still plenty of ways to make money in the meantime though.

I hear that, isn't that the biggest reason why we love dividends??  I'm also really starting to like the idea of buying Treasury notes at 40-50 that were sold for 116 face value... 

 You did say that we hit our highs for the year my friend... and the Taliban just bombed a central building in Kabul...  I think it might be a little early to call Earnings Season a Train Wreck, however, CITI: We're 'Shocked' By The Surge In Negative Earnings Preannouncements ...

 I'm not getting to pessimistic that earnings will be bad for a long period of time, I do believe that volume from the emerging markets is really going to come on strong in the next couple of years as China throws their money around.  I'm still thinking that by the end of 2015 things are going to be a lot different..   I think your overall point is to load up while you can though, eh? 

[usaone]

We had a hell of a run so far this year A.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jun 25, 2013 7:49:21 GMT -5 usaone said:

We had a hell of a run so far this year A.

Amen to that! Glad we live where we do when this shit hits the fan. 

[jarrett1]

This market will make "new" highs this year...within the two weeks after the earnings reports are announced the second week of July...be patient

[kman]

Indeed !!!

[jarrett1]

Hey slim how goes it...spoke with Linda yesterday....I am on my way!

[jarrett1]

Anything above 91 points today...takes us back to pre-correction levels in the DOW