bimetalaupt
Senior Member
Joined: Oct 9, 2011 20:29:23 GMT -5
Posts: 2,325
|
Post by bimetalaupt on Feb 25, 2014 19:02:16 GMT -5
I can't see much of anything that tells me that the market is going much higher for the near future. As always, I call my shots. I'm out and 100% in cash waiting for better days. Good luck too all. frankq,  Sounds like bonds to me. My Banker grandfather made money in the 1930's in the bond market. Bond market is much larger then stock. Remember the NYFRB owns about $4 Trillion worth bonds and other paper. I plan to lean against the odds. Target for the summer of 3.5% for the 30 year for the summer. This will back your 100% Kash is King vs my 37% bond? Today bonds were up stocks down. Just a thought, Bruce 
Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX) -Chicago Options Follow
3.66 Down 0.05(1.35%) 2:59PM EST
|
|
usaone
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 9:10:23 GMT -5
Posts: 3,429
|
Post by usaone on Feb 26, 2014 10:51:41 GMT -5
I think bonds and the stocks trade sideways for the next couple of years as the economy catches up. No big corrections either way. And then its Dow 20K+....to the moon.........  . |
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Feb 27, 2014 23:10:43 GMT -5
Really when it comes down to it a 25-30% correction at this point is nothing in the bull market. I definitely don't see a breakdown in the US economy, just more slow and steady growth. At the same time, I am 100% bracing/positioning myself for anything at this point. I can't find where I posted it, but I thought the next big story was going to be the rise of the far right in Europe during these spring elections. I personally was not expecting the EM flare up at the start of the year to go along with that story. While I knew that the mid east was going to be a persistent issue this year, at this point I was next expecting Police to restrict Friday prayers on Temple Mount Announcement comes after protesters burn Israeli flag, throw rocks near entrance to al-Aqsa compound. All the socioeconomic/geopolitical trends that I was watching out for last year are lining up quicker than I thought, and I didn't think the Ukrkaine would flare out of control like it has. If there is enough push back this spring I have a bad feeling we are going to be hearing all about a sovereign debt crisis once again. Dow 20k is the long term goal that I'm planning on, looking forward to adding to the basket at a discount as we move towards NA rebuilding the world. Stay my friend. Austrian Banks with Significant Exposure in Ukraine |
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Feb 27, 2014 23:12:52 GMT -5
Forgot to add, make sure to note the echoes of 2007-2008 in the article about who's gonna get screwed if Ukraine didn't pay bills due from the debt wall of 2013.
|
|
frankq
Well-Known Member
Joined: Jan 28, 2013 18:48:45 GMT -5
Posts: 1,577 
|
Post by frankq on Mar 1, 2014 15:37:22 GMT -5
Dow 20k is the long term goal that I'm planning on, looking forward to adding to the basket at a discount as we move towards NA rebuilding the world. Stay my friend.
Absolutely. I have a feeling the market is a little ahead of itself. All out except for my T and some F that I bought for almost nothing back when GM was in the shit. I consider those two the same as cash.
|
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Mar 1, 2014 23:57:50 GMT -5
Haha, ya man, F for less than a cup of coffee was were it was at. In all reality the argument could be made that since the companies on the big indexes make half their profits outside the US, the GDP to market cap correlation isn't as relative as it once was. On the other hand world GDP is less than four percent. They keep trying to move it higher in their estimates, but it ain't happening. The market is a head of itself without a doubt. Watch out for the breakout to the upside on the short term if things cool down in the Ukraine, but if things escalated, the world is watching... Also, further confirmation of a situation being spread thin... Syrian airstrikes kill two in Lebanon border town |
|
tyfighter3
Well-Known Member
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 13:01:17 GMT -5
Posts: 1,806
|
Post by tyfighter3 on Mar 2, 2014 1:08:48 GMT -5
I think Russia has already shown what it won't give up in the Ukraine is the Sea Ports. The rest of the Country, ?. JMO
|
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Mar 2, 2014 10:53:05 GMT -5
I agree they aren't going to give up the sea port the Black Sea fleet has been there since like 1798. All through the rest of the eastern part of the country there were pro Russia demonstrations yesterday, probably a good indication on where this is going. Looking at the wider implications, Putin will face more pressure at home, as we know how happy the people in Moscow and other places are with him. But more so, if the Ukraine splits in two at this point, how empowered are the far right in Ukraine going to feel? What kind of message is it going to send to the rest of the far right movement in Europe? Also think about how hard some of us got raked over the coals around here for saying back in 2009-2011 that things are slowly getting better in the US economy. We talked about these thing going down in what, 2011 Ty? The biggest problem that we seen is that it's all happening so fast that it risks spinning out of control. Wecolme to the present, eh? Lol.. Stay . |
|
sunrnr
Established Member
SISU
Joined: Oct 4, 2012 15:03:01 GMT -5
Posts: 463
Location: Somewhere between Now Here and No Where.
Favorite Drink: Ice cold spring water
|
Post by sunrnr on Mar 4, 2014 22:47:10 GMT -5
Seems Putin doesn't buy into the EU's (New World Order/The Enterprise) little world domination plan. They're trying to take over Russia a bite at a time starting with Urkraine. Seems the Russian backed puppet president was put into a precarious position when the EU started to make headway in the country. He backed out of the agreements with the EU resulting in the EU (and the West) stirring up "protests" hoping for a regime change to get their way. Of course, we (the US), along with the UK, have to start lambasting Putin in self righteous indignation accusing him of "trying to expand the Russian Empire". Oddly enough, Russia was mostly silent as the US has embarked on empire building by taking on Irag, Afganistan directly along with Iran, Syria and African countries indirectly. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black! It's about time someone stood up to the bullies of the West. America and Obama are going to find how little influence we really have in the world. Unfortunately, it's the people in all these countries who suffer, not those "in charge". This whole affair could seriously blow up into a major world crisis and economic disaster. Oh, well it gives the mainstream media, the talking heads and our useless Congress something to get all worked up about. Just my $1.98 worth of opinion.  |
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Mar 5, 2014 0:29:34 GMT -5
IDK, what u have been watching sun, but this whole thing in the Ukraine started as a peaceful sit in that went on until the pro Russia puppet, as you call him, started to crack down. It has turned into an disaster because Putin lives in a dream world surrounded by yes men. Look at the shirtless photos!! You know who else liked to have pictures of himself taken flexing his muscles? Mussolini. I mean what happened to the conspiracies about Putin and Obama from when Russia and the US were holding joint terror drills? Honestly, what is going on in the Ukraine is nothing compared to the can of worms this crazy dictator has opened. But on the other hand, all the peeps that have been calling for Chinese military action will finally get their wish. Just won't be directed at the US as so many assumed that it would be. Take care. |
|
sunrnr
Established Member
SISU
Joined: Oct 4, 2012 15:03:01 GMT -5
Posts: 463
Location: Somewhere between Now Here and No Where.
Favorite Drink: Ice cold spring water
|
Post by sunrnr on Mar 5, 2014 8:55:56 GMT -5
|
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Mar 5, 2014 14:16:30 GMT -5
I'm not sure how the article you posted proves Putin isn't a maniac, or he isn't the problem. But it proves without a doubt that Russia is, and always has been a bully. Funny thing they have collapsed before because of this exact same attitude. The second article, is exactly what I been posting about since 2011. Notice the threads on Investing Perspectives?? Sun you need to keep in mind that this is God's Kingdom and all man kind will be thanking Jesus in the future. |
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Mar 5, 2014 14:22:35 GMT -5
Sorry, no to harp on ya Sun, but this situation(aside from Putin, I was wrong about him) is exactly what I have been posting about since I stared posting. I have had this theory since I was in high school, and things just keep happening. Take care my friend. |
|
bimetalaupt
Senior Member
Joined: Oct 9, 2011 20:29:23 GMT -5
Posts: 2,325
|
Post by bimetalaupt on Mar 5, 2014 14:22:53 GMT -5
I'm not sure how the article you posted proves Putin isn't a maniac, or he isn't the problem. But it proves without a doubt that Russia is, and always has been a bully. Funny thing they have collapsed before because of this exact same attitude. The second article, is exactly what I been posting about since 2011. Notice the threads on Investing Perspectives?? Sun you need to keep in mind that this is God's Kingdom and all man kind will be thanking Jesus in the future. A+++, IT is a power grab for Putin. Richest man in the world. Look at LUKOIL VS XOM!!!
Just a thought, Bruce
|
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Mar 5, 2014 17:07:49 GMT -5
the , I agree, he's waiting til the referendum to make his next move. Split it two he says! Ukraine is then in a new parliament with far right elements, which further empowers that movement. Meanwhile, Russia barely grew last year and he's spreading himself further by having to secure the new Ukraine. This leaves gaps in central Asia, which is a powder keg. China will have no choice but to move in to try and secure the area.... Oh and Iran, a close ally of Putin, who has boats on the way to the US coastline.... Iran announces missile breakthroughIsraeli naval raid nabs Gaza-bound arms from IranThen when all this central Asia and surging mid east conflict/Iranian navy thing happens, the further empowered far right in Europe will more than likely see it as justification for their positions on immigration and Mulslims in general. As you say, just some thoughts. These ones from a guy who should have listened to a list of good people about Putin so his math models were more accurate. God Bless, A+++
|
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Mar 6, 2014 0:05:57 GMT -5
Just as suspected...
|
|
sunrnr
Established Member
SISU
Joined: Oct 4, 2012 15:03:01 GMT -5
Posts: 463
Location: Somewhere between Now Here and No Where.
Favorite Drink: Ice cold spring water
|
Post by sunrnr on Mar 6, 2014 7:56:44 GMT -5
I'm not sure how the article you posted proves Putin isn't a maniac, or he isn't the problem. But it proves without a doubt that Russia is, and always has been a bully. Funny thing they have collapsed before because of this exact same attitude. The second article, is exactly what I been posting about since 2011. Notice the threads on Investing Perspectives?? Sun you need to keep in mind that this is God's Kingdom and all man kind will be thanking Jesus in the future. A & Bruce, I'm not trying to prove anything one way or the other, just pointing out there's multiple layers to this crisis. I don't support any of the "leaders" involved as they're interested in the money and resources involved, not the inhabitants of the area. It's definitely a power struggle as there are stories of armed neo-nazi gangs running amok in Ukraine along with a host of other miscretanats. The whole thing is a power keg in my opinion and the current "we're right, you're wrong" dialog going on by various "leaders" and talking heads sure the hell ain't helping. Good follow up posts by you both. Thanks for that. |
|
bimetalaupt
Senior Member
Joined: Oct 9, 2011 20:29:23 GMT -5
Posts: 2,325
|
Post by bimetalaupt on Mar 6, 2014 15:42:54 GMT -5
I'm not sure how the article you posted proves Putin isn't a maniac, or he isn't the problem. But it proves without a doubt that Russia is, and always has been a bully. Funny thing they have collapsed before because of this exact same attitude. The second article, is exactly what I been posting about since 2011. Notice the threads on Investing Perspectives?? Sun you need to keep in mind that this is God's Kingdom and all man kind will be thanking Jesus in the future. A & Bruce, I'm not trying to prove anything one way or the other, just pointing out there's multiple layers to this crisis. I don't support any of the "leaders" involved as they're interested in the money and resources involved, not the inhabitants of the area. It's definitely a power struggle as there are stories of armed neo-nazi gangs running amok in Ukraine along with a host of other miscretanats. The whole thing is a power keg in my opinion and the current "we're right, you're wrong" dialog going on by various "leaders" and talking heads sure the hell ain't helping. Good follow up posts by you both. Thanks for that. Sun, With all the events of the last 100 years; the multiple layers of politics are too complex for any easy solution. Crimea is an antonymous political unit with a 60% Russian population. They want a vote to allow them to join Russia. It looks like they have done a pincer on the military basses of the Ukraine. 
Who is going to bail out the some $40 billion needed for Ukraine to repay then current $35 billion debt Plus interest and cash needs now. Russia has now closed the major railroad ferry. 
What next for this area. Putin and Obama could meet at Yalta.  Two Liberals might be too much for Yalta? Obama Could come on the CVN Ford! 
Just a thought, Bruce
|
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Mar 7, 2014 1:19:32 GMT -5
Sun, civil conversation is where it all has to start, right? Thank you for that. I'm with you, I don't think any of these politicians should have this kind of power. Here's the major points I see shaping the next, maybe decade in global events. As I pointed out above Putin will support separation of any Warsaw province that is "under threat". Today's vote, as B pointed out, is the first step. Putin thinks that because they are "winning" in Syria, that he isn't spreading himself thin across the warsaw states... Iran is sending ships to the US coast line, and they have just flaunted a new missile system.... There was also a cover up proving Iran has been working on a nuke. Israel just intercepted a missile shipment from Iran to Gaza.... Israel has been shelling Lebanon and Syria more frequently because the war is just going in the mid east... There is a huge debate going on right now in Israel about the Temple Mount Russia, Iran, and Syria think China is going to back them up.... Ain't going to happen... China is so screwed without the UST it's not even funny.... Right now I suspect China is letting the three amigos think they will be there for them. Chinese culture and Jewish culture have been intermingling for millenniums... Russia could very well collapse because the Wahhabist want nothing more than for Russia to get itself into a position where they will have to support a fight in central Asia. This will stop support to Syria, allowing a surge there and into Iran. If Russia goes, a wildfire spreads across Europe... China's economy is teetering on the brink of a depression.... China is also experiencing a wave a terrorism in central Asia, hand once again thanks to Putin will be drawn into the whole mid east conflict. The only army big enough to stop the wahhabist if they accomplish destabilizing central Asia, is the 200-300 million Chinese that could be conscripted... On the bright side Roman and Muslim scripture has pounded this fear of the end into so many people, that they miss the Hebrew aspect. It's about Gods promise to Abraham and JC is the Messiah that fulfills that promise. The Earth is the promised land. |
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Mar 7, 2014 1:21:44 GMT -5
|
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Mar 15, 2014 12:31:24 GMT -5
Russia, Iran, and Syria think China is going to back them up.... Ain't going to happen... China is so screwed without the UST it's not even funny.... Right now I suspect China is letting the three amigos think they will be there for them. Check. |
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Mar 18, 2014 12:08:17 GMT -5
Putin thinks that because they are "winning" in Syria, that he isn't spreading himself thin across the warsaw states... Check.. Russia Sounds Alarm on Economy as West Starts With SanctionsBut hey, what better excuse is there for martial law than an economy in crisis. I mean it's not like Putin has cracked down on everything inside of Russia or anythig ... |
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Mar 23, 2014 0:17:16 GMT -5
|
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Mar 25, 2014 23:12:04 GMT -5
|
|
damnotagain
Well-Known Member
Joined: Oct 19, 2012 21:18:44 GMT -5
Posts: 1,211
|
Post by damnotagain on Mar 30, 2014 16:43:24 GMT -5
I see you answered your own question on another thread Aham.
With China buying 350 billion in oil from Russia, I doubt China will be turning it's back on Russia and Iran anytime soon. As they both continue to sell US bonds. I happen to notice Belgium picking up the slack. Something is just not right.
104 billion in just one week. More to come.
|
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Mar 30, 2014 18:57:26 GMT -5
|
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Apr 10, 2014 21:56:27 GMT -5
Bruce, This is what I mean by laying out a real situation.. Sun, civil conversation is where it all has to start, right? Thank you for that. I'm with you, I don't think any of these politicians should have this kind of power. Here's the major points I see shaping the next, maybe decade in global events. As I pointed out above Putin will support separation of any Warsaw province that is "under threat". Today's vote, as B pointed out, is the first step. Putin thinks that because they are "winning" in Syria, that he isn't spreading himself thin across the warsaw states... Iran is sending ships to the US coast line, and they have just flaunted a new missile system.... There was also a cover up proving Iran has been working on a nuke. Israel just intercepted a missile shipment from Iran to Gaza.... Israel has been shelling Lebanon and Syria more frequently because the war is just going in the mid east... There is a huge debate going on right now in Israel about the Temple Mount Russia, Iran, and Syria think China is going to back them up.... Ain't going to happen... China is so screwed without the UST it's not even funny.... Right now I suspect China is letting the three amigos think they will be there for them. Chinese culture and Jewish culture have been intermingling for millenniums... Russia could very well collapse because the Wahhabist want nothing more than for Russia to get itself into a position where they will have to support a fight in central Asia. This will stop support to Syria, allowing a surge there and into Iran. If Russia goes, a wildfire spreads across Europe... China's economy is teetering on the brink of a depression.... China is also experiencing a wave a terrorism in central Asia, hand once again thanks to Putin will be drawn into the whole mid east conflict. The only army big enough to stop the wahhabist if they accomplish destabilizing central Asia, is the 200-300 million Chinese that could be conscripted... On the bright side Roman and Muslim scripture has pounded this fear of the end into so many people, that they miss the Hebrew aspect. It's about Gods promise to Abraham and JC is the Messiah that fulfills that promise. The Earth is the promised land. .... Just like housing bottoms, oil and gas booms, reshoring, slow and steady growth, space mining/tourism, colonization of mars...... God bless, |
|
tyfighter3
Well-Known Member
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 13:01:17 GMT -5
Posts: 1,806
|
Post by tyfighter3 on Apr 16, 2014 17:58:51 GMT -5
What really does the Ukraine have that would make the EU and the USA want to keep it in the EU? Nothing. Well they do have a lot of Debt. Does the EU want it? NO, they have enough of that allready. I would let Russia have it. JMO The EU does want the Gas and Oil coming from Russia and here is where the USA could help them with that problem but I don't see that happening soon either. LOL
|
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Apr 16, 2014 22:56:28 GMT -5
I hear ya TY, it will have to be completely out of control before we get it here. At that time it will be like, gee, maybe we should ship fuel to the war, lol... Honestly my friend, this ain't about the Ukraine anymore. The Ukraine is just the current news cycle. It's that map of rising nationalism across Europe that Putin has his eye on, and we damn well know it too... NATO Boosts Military Presence in Eastern EuropeGet a hat, you're going to need to hold onto it, lol.. |
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Apr 16, 2014 22:59:00 GMT -5
You know, like this.... Putin thinks that because they are "winning" in Syria, that he isn't spreading himself thin across the warsaw states... |
|
