AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 10:56:30 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2012 11:16:26 GMT -5
No candidate with numbers has EVER lost with numbers like Romney's: let me see if i am getting this right. Rove is calling the election based on ONE poll? he has truly lost it. edit: as of today, 538 has Colorado leaning Obama for the first time in two weeks.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2012 11:31:07 GMT -5
This election is over in my mind. The Obama campaign painted Romney as a villain for the months leading up to the debates. And now that the public is seeing more of him, they are realizing it’s just a big lie. Romney’s not perfect and probably not a guy you’d want to have a beer with, but he is coming off to the public as extremely driven and competent. Plus, Romney is driving home the point of “What is he going to do now that he hasn’t already tried?” and I think the public is getting it.
So long Obama! Nice knowing you! (not really)
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2012 11:42:15 GMT -5
This election is over in my mind. The Obama campaign painted Romney as a villain for the months leading up to the debates. And now that the public is seeing more of him, they are realizing it’s just a big lie. Romney’s not perfect and probably not a guy you’d want to have a beer with, but he is coming off to the public as extremely driven and competent. Plus, Romney is driving home the point of “What is he going to do now that he hasn’t already tried?” and I think the public is getting it. So long Obama! Nice knowing you! (not really) i would love to call this for Obama right now, just so you would have a brick wall to bang your head against, but i am not going to do that. though i have to admit, the foolishness of calling a race that is within 1% right now is rather inspiring. i will save my foolishness for something more certain. edit: i am still giving 5:3 odds, but if any of you want to wait a day or two, i will likely pay double or nothing.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2012 12:22:10 GMT -5
Ah, so you see what I did there? I’ve noticed that is a strategy that dailykos utilizes. They basically dance around and pretend it’s all wrapped up because they know redstate visitors are reading. But I think the battleground polls are useless and Romney will still win. Romney peaked at the right time and it’s coasting at this point.
On a separate note, I have to admit that I absolutely love to read posts on the dailykos. Specifically after a debate performance. Those people have way to high of an opinion of Obama when it comes to strategy. Some of the most “Rec’d” posts involved theories that he threw the first debate so he could bait/trap him in the 2nd one. Haha.
1/10 posts will include a variation of “Watch Paul Krugman DESTROY GOP talking points”
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Oct 18, 2012 12:35:22 GMT -5
And the Mavs had never lost a game when Josh Howard scored 20 points. Right up until my wife said that against the Heat a few years ago.
Hope you're happy if you just jinxed Mittens.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 12:38:38 GMT -5
This election is over in my mind. The Obama campaign painted Romney as a villain for the months leading up to the debates. And now that the public is seeing more of him, they are realizing it’s just a big lie. Romney’s not perfect and probably not a guy you’d want to have a beer with, but he is coming off to the public as extremely driven and competent. Plus, Romney is driving home the point of “What is he going to do now that he hasn’t already tried?” and I think the public is getting it. So long Obama! Nice knowing you! (not really) I am on a mission to play a round of golf with Obama. (I'd also like to play with Rush). So, maybe I'll have a better shot at it now.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 18, 2012 12:40:16 GMT -5
Don't you personally know both of them?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2012 12:45:49 GMT -5
Obama won't fight, just like Gore didn't. he is too much of a company guy. Gore didn't fight? noRewriting history now? noHe threw in the towel, after he lost like three different times. You ought to write a University history book, because we see this type of revisionism in Uniiversities all the time. isn't hyperbole the greatest thing ever?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2012 12:48:17 GMT -5
Ah, so you see what I did there? I’ve noticed that is a strategy that dailykos utilizes. They basically dance around and pretend it’s all wrapped up because they know redstate visitors are reading. But I think the battleground polls are useless and Romney will still win. Romney peaked at the right time and it’s coasting at this point. he peaked at the wrong time, imo. about a week ago.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 12:55:27 GMT -5
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Oct 18, 2012 12:56:14 GMT -5
Sweet! Does that mean you will simmer down?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2012 13:01:48 GMT -5
and yet you still won't take 5:3 odds.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 18, 2012 13:08:13 GMT -5
Very strong upturn in Obama's numbers since the last debate. They're about neck-and-neck with all polls considered, as I read it. It ain't over, yet. The pleasingly plump lady has not yet vocalized.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 13:09:29 GMT -5
Very strong upturn in Obama's numbers since the last debate. They're about neck-and-neck with all polls considered, as I read it. It ain't over, yet. The pleasingly plump lady has not yet vocalized. Keep telling yourself whatever you need to tell yourself...
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 13:12:43 GMT -5
Once a voter decides to leave an incumbent President, they do not return. It quite literally does not ever happen. Further, Obama is said to have won the debate, but he lost on every single important issue. To the point where an Obama surrogate said, "If those numbers are accurate- if they are representative of what people thought that viewed the debate, and if they do not change their minds before the election, Romney is going to win". That was after the SECOND debate.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2012 13:14:52 GMT -5
Once a voter decides to leave an incumbent President, they do not return. It quite literally does not ever happen. Further, Obama is said to have won the debate, but he lost on every single important issue. To the point where an Obama surrogate said, "If those numbers are accurate- if they are representative of what people thought that viewed the debate, and if they do not change their minds before the election, Romney is going to win". That was after the SECOND debate. 5:3 odds, Paul. four days straight now.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2012 13:16:02 GMT -5
Very strong upturn in Obama's numbers since the last debate. They're about neck-and-neck with all polls considered, as I read it. It ain't over, yet. The pleasingly plump lady has not yet vocalized. Gallup has been at least this far off median once before in the last two months. and in the same direction.
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Sum Dum Gai
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Post by Sum Dum Gai on Oct 18, 2012 13:19:35 GMT -5
Uh huh.
By my count Obama has 201 likely electoral votes. Romney has 206 likely.
The toss up states according to RCP's 5 poll average: Virginia (13) Obama leading by 0.8% Ohio (18) Obama by 2.4% Florida (29) Romney by 2.5% New Hampshire (4) Obama by 0.8% Wisconsin (10) Obama by 2% Michigan (16) Obama by 4.2% Pennsylvania (20) Obama by 5% Iowa (6) Obama by 2.3% Colorado (9) Romney by 0.7% Nevada (6) Obama by 3%
Every one of those toss up states went Obama in 08. I see Romney leading in exactly two of those toss up states right now. If he won them both he'd have 244 electoral votes, which doesn't get it done. This race is anything but over right now.
It's trending Romney though. A few weeks ago if you looked at the toss up states Romney was getting absolutely destroyed. Now it's close.
National polls are meaningless though. We don't elect a president by popular vote. The only votes that matter are in the states listed above. Obama and Romney getting huge margins in their likely states are completely and totally meaningless. It's all about eeking out wins in the toss ups.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 13:23:05 GMT -5
This is the time of year when the race breaks for one or the other candidate. Nobody reverses the trend now. When the candidate that leads is also the candidate with the momentum, that cannot be undone. My 2012-is-2010-continued theory of the election is falling into place with each new poll. Obama is in shore-up-the-base mode now to avoid an embarrassing wipeout. All they've got left is their hatred of conservatives and Republicans. If you think the Obama campaign planned to be in Iowa, and New Hampshire at this stage of the game talking about Big Bird, Binders, and Birth Control... you're crazy. This is fire-walling at this point. Romney is gaining nationally, and he's gaining with women in key battleground states. Romney is +7 now with a +/- 2% margin of error with likely voters. It's over...
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 13:23:54 GMT -5
This thing is close. Romney's Libyan gambit didn't work, and that was all he had on foreign policy. The next debate is about.... foreign policy. You seriously don't see that this was a catastrophe for Obama? C'mon. I know you're not this out of touch.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 18, 2012 13:25:37 GMT -5
Very strong upturn in Obama's numbers since the last debate. They're about neck-and-neck with all polls considered, as I read it. It ain't over, yet. The pleasingly plump lady has not yet vocalized. Gallup has been at least this far off median once before in the last two months. and in the same direction. Huff has a site that lumps the polls together and tracks them as an aggregate number. It's updated several times a day, if I remember correctly (to take new polls into account). If you look at the end of the graph (today), there's been a sharp upturn in Obama's numbers since the last debate. It's an interesting graph, anyway, as you see what's happened over the course of time and take into consideration what was going on during the various time frames. I'm sure you know of it. If you don't, I'll get the link.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2012 13:27:10 GMT -5
This thing is close. Romney's Libyan gambit didn't work, and that was all he had on foreign policy. The next debate is about.... foreign policy. You seriously don't see that this was a catastrophe for Obama? C'mon. I know you're not this out of touch. i know you weren't asking me, but i don't.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 18, 2012 13:27:38 GMT -5
This thing is close. Romney's Libyan gambit didn't work, and that was all he had on foreign policy. The next debate is about.... foreign policy. This is one I want to catch, deminmaine. I want to hear what both candidates have to say on the issues of foreign policy. While it would take a miracle to get me to vote for either of them, I'm interested in their take on what's going on worldwide.
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Sum Dum Gai
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Post by Sum Dum Gai on Oct 18, 2012 13:27:47 GMT -5
Good for him, sounds like he'll do really well in the popular vote. He's still trailing a little bit in the electoral college, and since that's the one that puts somebody in the white house, this race is still on.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2012 13:27:52 GMT -5
Gallup has been at least this far off median once before in the last two months. and in the same direction. Huff has a site that lumps the polls together and tracks them as an aggregate number. It's updated several times a day, if I remember correctly (to take new polls into account). If you look at the end of the graph (today), there's been a sharp upturn in Obama's numbers since the last debate. It's an interesting graph, anyway, as you see what's happened over the course of time and take into consideration what was going on during the various time frames. I'm sure you know of it. If you don't, I'll get the link. i have narrowed it down to two sites i watch daily for polling information, and that is one of them.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 18, 2012 13:34:09 GMT -5
Huff has a site that lumps the polls together and tracks them as an aggregate number. It's updated several times a day, if I remember correctly (to take new polls into account). If you look at the end of the graph (today), there's been a sharp upturn in Obama's numbers since the last debate. It's an interesting graph, anyway, as you see what's happened over the course of time and take into consideration what was going on during the various time frames. I'm sure you know of it. If you don't, I'll get the link. i have narrowed it down to two sites i watch daily for polling information, and that is one of them. I thought it might be, dj. I really like what they've done, as it gives more than a snapshot. I check it daily, as well.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 18, 2012 13:40:17 GMT -5
Well past time for a musical interlude
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2012 15:53:50 GMT -5
Well, I can be as partisan as the next person, and occasionally a wishful thinker, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves here.
Things remain fluid and relatively close. I still think Obama has a winning edge…(just think, if all those huddled masses on food stamps and one kind of social assistance or another come out to vote, it will be a landslide. lol ).
I’ll give you my prediction on November 1st. Until then it is all idle speculation and wish fulfillment.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 16:40:07 GMT -5
It's over. The Real Clear Politics Electoral College Map has moved Romney - Ryan into the electoral college lead for the first time. One of the changes? New Jersey has been moved from "Obama" to "Leans Obama". New Jersey! LOL! Goodbye, Barry.
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