Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 17, 2012 10:41:16 GMT -5
PBP, Florida is still close, so just in case, I think you better still vote for Romney. We don't want no freaking recount down there this year. Obama has way many more lawyers than Gore ever dreamed of.....
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 17, 2012 10:46:00 GMT -5
I know that you'll argue with me on this, but the fact is that it's perfectly possible for me to know Kari's political affiliation even if Kari doesn't. And in my opinion, I do. Obama is a Democrat. If you 'prefer Obama', that means you prefer the Democrat. If you vote for Obama, you are voting Democrat. You cannot separate a person from their party (even though Ron Paul supporters have a similar challenge- if you support Ron Paul, as long as he's a Republican, you support the Republican Party). OK Paul. I'm going to vote for Angus King, an Independant, for the US Senate. Does that make me an Independant? I think it does, yes. Why not vote for the Democrat if you're a Democrat? But anyway- I wanted to rewind a bit and ask you if you ever responded to my question about what exactly it was that was going in Obama's direction? Everything I'm looking at today-- all the polls-- show continued momentum for Romney.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 17, 2012 10:47:31 GMT -5
Maybe Romney is closer to your position than Romney because he changes them so often. ;D I meant to type "Obamney" to make that point- and I messed it up. Damn, I hate when I screw up a perfectly good joke.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2012 11:30:18 GMT -5
And yet you continue to make comments on things you know nothing about. I am on the record on this forum that I am voting for Gary Johnson. The fact that I prefer Obama to Romney is meaningless when I am voting for neither. I am not making the lesser of two evils vote that most here are making. A fun bet for karma has nothing to do with my actual vote. If it did, then you should be going after Virgil for multiple voter fraud, and he isn't even a US citizen. Ah, so you're a libertarian? I'd like to know how a libertarian can come up with Obama over Romney? I'm a libertarian as well, and I, too, will be casting my vote for Gary Johnson. However, as a libertarian it's not hard to see that Romney is closer to my positions than Romney. i can answer that. there are two types of libertarians in the US, with very little crossover. there are social libertarians, and there are economic libertarians. Romney is clearly an economic libertarian, no doubt. but he is also clearly NOT a social libertarian. so it comes down to what matters to you.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2012 11:31:01 GMT -5
PBP, Florida is still close, so just in case, I think you better still vote for Romney. We don't want no freaking recount down there this year. Obama has way many more lawyers than Gore ever dreamed of..... Obama won't fight, just like Gore didn't. he is too much of a company guy.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2012 11:33:52 GMT -5
But anyway- I wanted to rewind a bit and ask you if you ever responded to my question about what exactly it was that was going in Obama's direction? Everything I'm looking at today-- all the polls-- show continued momentum for Romney. looked at Ohio lately?
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 17, 2012 11:34:03 GMT -5
You don't have the qualifications to tell anyone what party they belong to, paul. Fact is, you don't know. That's right. You don't know what Kari's political affililation is. Kari knows that. I know that you'll argue with me on this, but the fact is that it's perfectly possible for me to know Kari's political affiliation even if Kari doesn't. And in my opinion, I do. Obama is a Democrat. If you 'prefer Obama', that means you prefer the Democrat. If you vote for Obama, you are voting Democrat. You cannot separate a person from their party (even though Ron Paul supporters have a similar challenge- if you support Ron Paul, as long as he's a Republican, you support the Republican Party). You're full of it and you know it. One of these days, you're going to spin sooo hard you drive yourself right into the ground, paul.
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Post by resolution on Oct 17, 2012 11:42:40 GMT -5
And yet you continue to make comments on things you know nothing about. I am on the record on this forum that I am voting for Gary Johnson. The fact that I prefer Obama to Romney is meaningless when I am voting for neither. I am not making the lesser of two evils vote that most here are making. A fun bet for karma has nothing to do with my actual vote. If it did, then you should be going after Virgil for multiple voter fraud, and he isn't even a US citizen. Ah, so you're a libertarian? I'd like to know how a libertarian can come up with Obama over Romney? I'm a libertarian as well, and I, too, will be casting my vote for Gary Johnson. However, as a libertarian it's not hard to see that Romney is closer to my positions than Romney. I am not a libertarian either. I am an unaffiliated voter that generally votes for balanced budgets and individual liberties. I don't vote a straight ticket. Both Romney and Obama are big spending big government guys that have no plans to balance the budget, the only difference that I see fiscally is where they direct the money. I think Romney is further from the libertarian ideal than Obama. His plan for military build up and foreign intervention goes against libertarian principles, as does his desire to legislate morality. Obama's overspending on stimulus and social programs is problematic, but I think Americans are resilient and can deal with economic problems a lot better than more wars and a loss of individual rights.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2012 11:45:36 GMT -5
Ah, so you're a libertarian? I'd like to know how a libertarian can come up with Obama over Romney? I'm a libertarian as well, and I, too, will be casting my vote for Gary Johnson. However, as a libertarian it's not hard to see that Romney is closer to my positions than Romney. I am not a libertarian either. I am an unaffiliated voter that generally votes for balanced budgets and individual liberties. I don't vote a straight ticket. Both Romney and Obama are big spending big government guys that have no plans to balance the budget, the only difference that I see fiscally is where they direct the money. I think Romney is further from the libertarian ideal than Obama. His plan for military build up and foreign intervention goes against libertarian principles, as does his desire to legislate morality. Obama's overspending on stimulus and social programs is problematic, but I think Americans are resilient and can deal with economic problems a lot better than more wars and a loss of individual rights. this is extremely close to my position, kari.
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Post by weltschmerz on Oct 17, 2012 11:49:20 GMT -5
I know that you'll argue with me on this, but the fact is that it's perfectly possible for me to know Kari's political affiliation even if Kari doesn't. And in my opinion, I do. --------------- Lol! You're priceless, Paul! Please, never leave this board. It's like having our very own court jester to keep us entertained.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 17, 2012 11:55:57 GMT -5
I know that you'll argue with me on this, but the fact is that it's perfectly possible for me to know Kari's political affiliation even if Kari doesn't. And in my opinion, I do. --------------- Lol! You're priceless, Paul! Please, never leave this board. It's like having our very own court jester to keep us entertained. "38. Become personal, insulting and rude as soon as you perceive that your opponent has the upper hand. In becoming personal you leave the subject altogether, and turn your attack on the person by remarks of an offensive and spiteful character. This is a very popular technique, because it takes so little skill to put it into effect." - 38 Ways To Win An Argument from Arthur Schopenhauer’s The Art of Controversy
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 17, 2012 12:17:13 GMT -5
I'm going to stand at the back gate so I can open it when Herman Cain rides in on his white horse to save the day in the nick o' time. Turns out, I was wrong. Romney is not ahead nationally in the Gallup Poll 50% to 46%. Romney is ahead 51% to 45%. It's hard to stay on top of the anti-Obama wave as it gathers momentum- but I shall do my best.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2012 12:34:33 GMT -5
I'm going to stand at the back gate so I can open it when Herman Cain rides in on his white horse to save the day in the nick o' time. Turns out, I was wrong. Romney is not ahead nationally in the Gallup Poll 50% to 46%. Romney is ahead 51% to 45%. It's hard to stay on top of the anti-Obama wave as it gathers momentum- but I shall do my best. Gallup is a 7 day poll, so it has often overshot actual tracking. this is a pretty weird result, imo. but we shall see. edit: i am moving Florida from tossup to "leans Romney" based on the polling there. this follows NC into the expected Romney win column. i am still rating VA, CO, NV, IA as Tossup. however, i have also moved OH and NH back to "leans Obama" at this point.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 17, 2012 13:08:13 GMT -5
Once the national polls break, the race is over. You're never going to see a situation where a candidate has a six point lead nationally, and that candidate loses Ohio by a point.
Final Presidential Estimate: Obama 55%, McCain 44% in 2008- Independents break for Obama, boosting Obama's broad Democratic base.
Independents are breaking for Romney and Obama is just one point above where McCain finished in 2008. When voters leave an incumbent President, they don't change their minds.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2012 13:17:15 GMT -5
Once the national polls break, the race is over. You're never going to see a situation where a candidate has a six point lead nationally, and that candidate loses Ohio by a point. Final Presidential Estimate: Obama 55%, McCain 44% in 2008- Independents break for Obama, boosting Obama's broad Democratic base. Independents are breaking for Romney and Obama is just one point above where McCain finished in 2008. When voters leave an incumbent President, they don't change their minds. ok, you are going on record saying this is a runaway for Romney, and i will go on record saying that the polls have already started to break for Obama, and that, barring anything unforseen, he will end up with about a 2% lead on election day. i am still giving 5:3 odds as of today.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2012 14:17:38 GMT -5
Is it possible that Obama will take the electoral college and Romney the popular vote?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2012 14:20:32 GMT -5
The Daily Kos has Romney ahead by 4 points. Huh.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 17, 2012 14:29:02 GMT -5
I love this aspect of US elections. You guys are all so passionate and hopeful, you become totally irrational. It gives the rest of us an opportunity to clean up. We "guys" aren't ALL anything. "All" may be an exaggeration. Suffice it to say that most of the partisan P&M crowd hates the "other guy" so much that it warps their perceptions of reality. The InTrade people must be making a killing from arbing the system.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 17, 2012 14:29:49 GMT -5
Is it possible that Obama will take the electoral college and Romney the popular vote? Absolutely. This has happened before. Most recently Gore won the popular vote and Bush took the Electoral College- with some help from the Supreme Court. Possible, but it's not probable when it's not close. And it ain't gonna be close.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2012 14:44:12 GMT -5
Absolutely. This has happened before. Most recently Gore won the popular vote and Bush took the Electoral College- with some help from the Supreme Court. Possible, but it's not probable when it's not close. And it ain't gonna be close. it is not probable when it IS close. 538 currently rates it as a 30:1 longshot.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 17, 2012 17:33:41 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2012 17:51:58 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2012 18:02:45 GMT -5
the right path wrong direction poll is at it's highest level since August 2009.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 17, 2012 19:30:49 GMT -5
Interestingly, the Gallup Poll that has Obama down 6% at 45% to Romney's 51% was taken before last night's debate. So, if Obama won the debate, will it stem the tide? Reverse it? Guess we'll see...
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2012 20:59:48 GMT -5
Interestingly, the Gallup Poll that has Obama down 6% at 45% to Romney's 51% was taken before last night's debate. So, if Obama won the debate, will it stem the tide? Reverse it? Guess we'll see... like i say, the Gallup poll is a 7 day rolling average. it picks up a lot of noise and reports it as news. that is fine, but it is well to keep in mind that it is a difficult ship to steer. it continues long in the direction it is going well after other polls have gone elsewhere.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 18, 2012 0:34:30 GMT -5
Turns out, I was wrong. Romney is not ahead nationally in the Gallup Poll 50% to 46%. Romney is ahead 51% to 45%. It's hard to stay on top of the anti-Obama wave as it gathers momentum- but I shall do my best. Gallup is a 7 day poll, so it has often overshot actual tracking. this is a pretty weird result, imo. but we shall see. edit: i am moving Florida from tossup to "leans Romney" based on the polling there. this follows NC into the expected Romney win column. i am still rating VA, CO, NV, IA as Tossup. however, i have also moved OH and NH back to "leans Obama" at this point. That is very magnanimous of you. I moved Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, to Romney days ago. I gave you Wisconsin, but tonight I am taking Wisconsin back. Ohio is still trending to Romney also. I am beginning to think this race Will not be as close as originally thought. Romney can easily wind up with the neighborhood of 310 Electoral votes.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 9:23:19 GMT -5
Gallup is a 7 day poll, so it has often overshot actual tracking. this is a pretty weird result, imo. but we shall see. edit: i am moving Florida from tossup to "leans Romney" based on the polling there. this follows NC into the expected Romney win column. i am still rating VA, CO, NV, IA as Tossup. however, i have also moved OH and NH back to "leans Obama" at this point. That is very magnanimous of you. I moved Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, to Romney days ago. I gave you Wisconsin, but tonight I am taking Wisconsin back. Ohio is still trending to Romney also. I am beginning to think this race Will not be as close as originally thought. Romney can easily wind up with the neighborhood of 310 Electoral votes. I moved Wisconsin to Romney the day Walker crushed the recall attempt by 5.8% when it was supposedly a "dead heat". Turns out it was a walk, and there's no way less than 90 days later, Wisconsin voters are going to turn around and vote for the guy that tried to have their governor removed so the Democrats could rape them on taxes the way they're doing down in Illinois.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 18, 2012 9:38:33 GMT -5
PBP, Florida is still close, so just in case, I think you better still vote for Romney. We don't want no freaking recount down there this year. Obama has way many more lawyers than Gore ever dreamed of..... Obama won't fight, just like Gore didn't. he is too much of a company guy. Gore didn't fight? Rewriting history now? He threw in the towel, after he lost like three different times. You ought to write a University history book, because we see this type of revisionism in Uniiversities all the time.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 9:39:51 GMT -5
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 9:54:10 GMT -5
Yeah- that's what I think of President Obama student of Saul Alinsky, mentored by Frank Marshall Davis-- a "company guy". He's a radical, but he can't tip his hand and he hasn't figured out how to walk the line where you govern like a lawless lunatic whack job leftist and campaign like Ronald Reagan. Maybe he should have picked up that phone and called Bill Clinton for that advice after all. www.theblaze.com/blog/2012/10/16/breaking-news-barack-obama-does-not-like-people/#The truth is that liberals rarely play for long in the competitive marketplace, especially the marketplace of ideas. They thrive in "little blue corners" - in cities like L.A., Chicago, and New York, in academia in the faculty lounge, in labor unions, and government bureaucracies-- places where they are insulated from mainstream thought, and competitive challenges. The reason little Barry President Obama is faltering in this campaign is simple- he's always had it handed to him. He has had exactly zero experience having to earn anything, having to manage anything well, or having to succeed on his own. Perhaps that's why he so easily projects his assumptions onto others who have succeeded. Maybe he really believes that successful people are basically like him- they got handed a college education- at Occidental College and Harvard Law no less, they were handed jobs where they really didn't do a whole lot except wield power over the downtrodden, the poor, and the oppressed; in politics for Barry- the way was always made clear for him, his opponents simply removed, or in the case of John McCain- too timid to blow his ass up in a debate the way Romney has. Barry isn't losing because he's too much of a company guy- in a nutshell, Barry is losing because he never learned how to win, because he's always had a pathway to victory secured for him, and this time he's got to earn it, and he doesn't know how.
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