AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 9, 2012 16:42:43 GMT -5
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 9, 2012 16:53:24 GMT -5
$500 to Herman Cain?
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Oct 9, 2012 16:57:30 GMT -5
Holy shit! How big is your car, or does your ego drive separate?
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 9, 2012 16:58:48 GMT -5
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 9, 2012 16:59:00 GMT -5
Double decker bus required.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 9, 2012 17:02:13 GMT -5
Ego is little Barry walking of the stage in Denver thinking he won the debate. I, on the other hand, may be described as confidently well-informed.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2012 17:03:42 GMT -5
Stop masturbating before the climax Paul...pace yourself.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 9, 2012 17:04:13 GMT -5
But let's not make another thread all about me. I mean you can comment on how amazing it is that I've had a prediction about the continuation of the 2010 slaughter of Democrats for some time now, but let's stick to the topic: We know Obama never really had a 9 point lead in Ohio (I was right about that, too)- that's established fact now. And now a real poll has Obama in real trouble: what does he do now?
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Oct 9, 2012 17:04:30 GMT -5
ROFL
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Don Perignon
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Post by Don Perignon on Oct 9, 2012 17:13:56 GMT -5
But let's not make another thread all about me. I mean you can comment on how amazing it is that I've had a prediction about the continuation of the 2010 slaughter of Democrats for some time now, but let's stick to the topic: We know Obama never really had a 9 point lead in Ohio (I was right about that, too)- that's established fact now. And now a real poll has Obama in real trouble: what does he do now? Every thread you create turns out to be a monument to an enormous ego. A problem for some of us is that your posts demonstrate a consistent lack of credibility, accuracy or factuality. In other words... you're like some guy who obsessively and compulsively masturbates publicly... when privacy would be much less inappropriate.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 9, 2012 17:17:18 GMT -5
Holy shit! How big is your car, or does your ego drive separate? LOL! We've been here before, thyme. As Tennesseer pointed out, at one time Herman Cain was a SURE WINNER!!!!1111ONE There are more debates coming up. I, for one, will wait and watch. Since I won't vote for either candidate, I don't have a dog in the race.
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mwcpa
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Post by mwcpa on Oct 9, 2012 17:22:05 GMT -5
And palm beach county decides the race again, but his time even before most of the ballots are cast.......we can all stay home on November 6th.....
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Virgil Showlion
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[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 9, 2012 17:22:42 GMT -5
Sound advice. Odd spelling of 'date', though.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Oct 9, 2012 17:23:08 GMT -5
LOL. What if Jesus tells us we have to?
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 9, 2012 17:24:37 GMT -5
In all seriousness, Paul, I'm tickled you get to be "right" for once.
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Oct 9, 2012 17:31:42 GMT -5
Request denied.
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cereb
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Post by cereb on Oct 9, 2012 17:42:35 GMT -5
"Sound advice.
Odd spelling of 'date', though. [image] "
Funny and yet icky at the same time...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2012 17:52:32 GMT -5
9!
Paul has 9 chickens everyone!
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Oct 9, 2012 17:56:49 GMT -5
LOL - This has got to be the best thread of the day.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2012 19:01:13 GMT -5
"But let's not make another thread all about me."
You wouldn't have it any other way, Paul.
As far as the poll, let's wait and see the next realclearpolitics poll. I think they combine multiple polls, which should be more accurate. I think the next one will come out Friday or Monday.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 9, 2012 19:09:53 GMT -5
You'd think so, but averaging is a poor technique for parameter estimation in many cases. Your best bet is to find the polling agency with the best predictive track record going back at least fifteen years and stick with their estimate. Averaging basically give you the truth mixed together with some arbitrary, non-zero amount of garbage. It might well end up close to the actual figure, but if it does, this will be by random chance rather than any inherent power in the estimator.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2012 19:33:32 GMT -5
OK, if I'm too lazy to do all of that, is it better to look at the average than to pick one at random?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 9, 2012 19:35:15 GMT -5
Rasmussen is notoriously right leaning. they average 3.9% bias toward Republicans. i am doubting you, Paul.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 9, 2012 19:36:17 GMT -5
You'd think so, but averaging is a poor technique for parameter estimation in many cases. totally. but poll averaging can be every bit as scientific as polling is.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 9, 2012 19:37:12 GMT -5
In all seriousness, Paul, I'm tickled you get to be "right" for once. don't count on it.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 9, 2012 19:38:00 GMT -5
PS- why do you even care? you are the one who said yourself you would never vote for the guy.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Oct 9, 2012 19:38:17 GMT -5
9!
Paul has 9 chickens everyone! (My sides hurt!)
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 9, 2012 19:39:11 GMT -5
I'm going to stand at the back gate so I can open it when Herman Cain rides in on his white horse to save the day in the nick o' time.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 9, 2012 19:46:53 GMT -5
I'm going to stand at the back gate so I can open it when Herman Cain rides in on his white horse to save the day in the nick o' time. with Paul's $500 check held aloft between thumb and forefinger.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 9, 2012 19:52:17 GMT -5
i noticed that Paul didn't mention the CNN poll that has Obama +4 in Ohio, just released. this confirms the Rasmussen result which is +1 (=+5).
if Romney loses Ohio, he loses.
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