Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2012 16:41:17 GMT -5
It ain't over until it's over. A lot can happen one way or the other.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 16:46:15 GMT -5
I'll grant that people still need to actually cast their votes, but no one with Romney's numbers has ever lost. It would be unprecedented if it happened.
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Sum Dum Gai
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Post by Sum Dum Gai on Oct 18, 2012 16:47:34 GMT -5
LOL!! You're declaring it based on that map?? Dude... Really? That same map had Obama at 269 electoral votes to Romney's like 180 just three or four weeks ago. It wasn't over when Obama was one vote away, but it's over now that Romney needs 64 more? Come on. That's crazy even for you.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 17:16:22 GMT -5
LOL!! You're declaring it based on that map?? Dude... Really? That same map had Obama at 269 electoral votes to Romney's like 180 just three or four weeks ago. It wasn't over when Obama was one vote away, but it's over now that Romney needs 64 more? Come on. That's crazy even for you. Think about what you just said. Three or four weeks ago, Obama had 269. Now, he's at 201. Three weeks ago, they were tied at 48%. Two weeks ago, it was Romney 49% to 47% It stayed Romney 49% to 47% until the 14th when it broke loose and started running towards Romney. We've seen three rolling average changes now in rapid succession: Romney 50% to 46% Romney 51% to 45% Romney 52% to 45% It's over.
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Sum Dum Gai
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Post by Sum Dum Gai on Oct 18, 2012 17:22:23 GMT -5
Which means we could see just as big a swing either way in the remaining two weeks.
Scroll down on that page you quoted. It shows the toss up states and the 5 poll average for them. Obama was still leading in all but 2 of them. Over my foot.
If Romney continues to surge, and more importantly surges in the toss up states, then it's over. Right now he went from getting his ass kicked electorally to making it a roughly even fight. That's far from a knockout blow.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 17:25:10 GMT -5
Which means we could see just as big a swing either way in the remaining two weeks. Scroll down on that page you quoted. It shows the toss up states and the 5 poll average for them. Obama was still leading in all but 2 of them. Over my foot. If Romney continues to surge, and more importantly surges in the toss up states, then it's over. Right now he went from getting his ass kicked electorally to making it a roughly even fight. That's far from a knockout blow. While technically possible, it's highly improbable. Once a dead heat breaks, it breaks. It would be completely unprecedented for the losing candidate to reverse the trend, and win. The only candidate to do so thus far was George W. Bush in 2004, however, he didn't come back with numbers like these. No candidate has EVER come back from this.
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Sum Dum Gai
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Post by Sum Dum Gai on Oct 18, 2012 17:32:03 GMT -5
This wasn't a dead heat that broke. Electorally Obama was winning the entire time and Romney just now pulled to almost even. It's more or less a dead heat right now. As it stands right now, Romney is losing, but just barely. Obama doesn't have to come back from anything. If the vote were held tomorrow he would just barely edge out Romney in enough swing states to clinch the nomination. He does have to counteract the surge that Romney has going though. If that continues to grow, then he's losing with two weeks to go. Right now Mitt is still the underdog.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 17:43:12 GMT -5
Challengers don't barely win. They just win. Undecided voters break for the challenger by 89% in every election (except 2004) since 1960. In a state like Ohio where they're saying Obama is up by 1%, that means Romney wins Ohio. In Wisconsin, also Obama up by 1%, another Romney win. Look, when you're staring at a map where Obama only has a lock on 7 states, and Oregon, Minnesota, and New Jersey are merely "leaning" Obama, and all the rest are toss ups, and the toss ups include Pennsylvania and Michigan-- and you're a Democrat? You're f***ed.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 17:45:51 GMT -5
For those of you just joining us this afternoon...
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Sum Dum Gai
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Post by Sum Dum Gai on Oct 18, 2012 17:55:07 GMT -5
Uh... Obama isn't the challenger. He's the incumbent, Romney would be the challenger, and right now he's not even barely winning, he's losing.
Uh huh. Right now Mitt has a lock on 13 states. All of them combined are worth less than California and New York. This happens every cycle. The Republicans look at all the red on the map and see no way they can lose. Those few blue states are worth more electoral votes than the entire heartland of the country. That sea of red doesn't matter because nobody (relatively) lives in it.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 18:23:51 GMT -5
Uh... Obama isn't the challenger. He's the incumbent, Romney would be the challenger, and right now he's not even barely winning, he's losing. Uh huh. Right now Mitt has a lock on 13 states. All of them combined are worth less than California and New York. This happens every cycle. The Republicans look at all the red on the map and see no way they can lose. Those few blue states are worth more electoral votes than the entire heartland of the country. That sea of red doesn't matter because nobody (relatively) lives in it. In reality, it's not close, it never has been close, and that the media has been trying to keep it a horse race and will try to keep it a horse race as long as they can, but it's over. Romney was the first to break 50% in the Gallup daily tracking poll, Obama has never even hit 50%. It's over. My best guess is that if Gallup has a 7 point lead for Romney, it's probably closer to 10%.
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mwcpa
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Post by mwcpa on Oct 18, 2012 18:26:22 GMT -5
What are you going to do if all of the polls you cite are wrong and the President is re-elected... ?
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parker1b2
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Post by parker1b2 on Oct 18, 2012 18:27:04 GMT -5
washingtonexaminer.com/poll-shows-romney-leading-in-blue-pennsylvania/article/2511153#.UICHI-xPE1oPoll shows Romney leading in blue Pennsylvania Romney-49% Obama-45% A new poll shows Republican Mitt Romney leading in Pennsylvania, a state that Republicans had all but written off just weeks ago but which is now listed as a toss up by the Real Clear Politics website. Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.
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Sum Dum Gai
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Post by Sum Dum Gai on Oct 18, 2012 18:27:22 GMT -5
Hard to argue with that. I mean, since you're the only person on the planet who's operating in true reality and the rest of us are just clueless and all.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 18:32:11 GMT -5
By the way, about California...Romney is up 8 points in California.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 18:32:46 GMT -5
Hard to argue with that. I mean, since you're the only person on the planet who's operating in true reality and the rest of us are just clueless and all. I'll be sure to quote you on this on November 7th.
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Sum Dum Gai
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Post by Sum Dum Gai on Oct 18, 2012 18:36:06 GMT -5
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAhahahahahahaha
Now I know you're just fucking with us. There's no way you honestly think Mitt 1% Romney is winning California. That was pretty funny though.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 18, 2012 18:50:07 GMT -5
I think he means that Mr. Romney has gained 8 points in CA. I doubt even Paul expects Romney to win the left coast.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2012 18:53:53 GMT -5
I think he means that Mr. Romney has gained 8 points in CA. I doubt even Paul expects Romney to win the left coast. Have you read his threads lately? He is so far from the reality of the average American voter, I suspect he'd believe about anything.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 18:57:53 GMT -5
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 18, 2012 19:03:38 GMT -5
I think he means that Mr. Romney has gained 8 points in CA. I doubt even Paul expects Romney to win the left coast. Have you read his threads lately? He is so far from the reality of the average American voter, I suspect he'd believe about anything. He does seem... eh... a tad fanatical. :-\ All the same, I'm glad I hedged my karma bets. These poll numbers are looking worse and worse for Pres. Obama, and I believe that may be because—for the first time—the US everyman isn't drinking the recovery koolaid. The election outcome will hinge on whether the current administration can hold things together through November, and the reins are slipping.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 19:04:47 GMT -5
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EVT1
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Post by EVT1 on Oct 18, 2012 19:34:10 GMT -5
PBP is a case study in confirmation bias. From his own link:
Every other Pennsylvania poll shows Obama ahead, though by a narrowing margin. A Quinnipiac University poll taken around the same time as the Susquehanna poll shows Obama leading Romney 50 percent to 46 percent
It's over for PBP but the election awaits the rest of us. Maybe he will post the electoral map or Gallop poll about 10 more times- I can't wait! As far as what matters Mitt has work to do still if he plans on winning- the electoral path is a tough road for him still. But go ahead and count your chickens if you want.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 19:42:30 GMT -5
PBP is a case study in confirmation bias. From his own link: Every other Pennsylvania poll shows Obama ahead, though by a narrowing margin. A Quinnipiac University poll taken around the same time as the Susquehanna poll shows Obama leading Romney 50 percent to 46 percent It's over for PBP but the election awaits the rest of us. Maybe he will post the electoral map or Gallop poll about 10 more times- I can't wait! As far as what matters Mitt has work to do still if he plans on winning- the electoral path is a tough road for him still. But go ahead and count your chickens if you want. Liberal Democrat Bob Beckel on Romney Poll Lead: 'It's Over' www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-TV/2012/10/18/Beckel-It-Is-Over
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2012 19:56:05 GMT -5
PBP is a case study in confirmation bias. i am going to stop arguing against it, and just sit back and watch him move back to center, as always.
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EVT1
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Post by EVT1 on Oct 18, 2012 20:02:46 GMT -5
Who the hell is Bob Beckel and why should we care what he has to say?
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 20:13:37 GMT -5
SHOCK GAFFE- OBAMA IS TOAST!
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cereb
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Post by cereb on Oct 18, 2012 20:22:47 GMT -5
Is there an actual video or transcript of this alleged gaffe?
EDIT: Oh look, here's the transcript..
Under heavy fire from Republicans over the deadly attack in Libya, President Barack Obama told "The Daily Show" host Jon Stewart on Thursday that his response had not suffered from "confusion." But Obama admitted that communication among government agencies and to the American public was "not optimal" and needs fixing.
Stewart had asked about the muddled public explanation for what happened in the Sept. 11 attack that claimed the lives of four Americans, including Ambassador Chris Stevens, at the American compound in Benghazi. The acerbic comic had also suggested poor communication among government agencies led to public pronouncements that were "not the optimal response."
"Here's what I'll say: If four Americans get killed, it's not optimal. We're going to fix it. All of it," Obama said, according to pool reporters David Nakamura of the Washington Post and Mike Memoli of the Los Angeles Times.http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-admits-not-optimal-communication-benghazi-212830390--election.html
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2012 20:37:26 GMT -5
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 20:50:56 GMT -5
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