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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2012 13:38:19 GMT -5
See, now 48/47 I believe. Of course, all that really matters is how those votes are distributed among the states.
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usaone
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Post by usaone on Oct 11, 2012 18:11:52 GMT -5
If you look at most of the real clear politics polls.....Romney has been at 47% for months now. What happen after the debate is Obams lost votes back to undecided.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 11, 2012 18:17:21 GMT -5
I wouldn't trust anything that came from IBD me neither. not even a scathing critique of Romney. Why is that? I've gone in depth giving you all reasons for my opinions- now it's time for some of you to explain yourselves. I did some research on where IBD fell last time around- do you know?
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 11, 2012 18:21:17 GMT -5
See, now 48/47 I believe. Of course, all that really matters is how those votes are distributed among the states. Margin of error almost always goes to the challenger. Late undecideds break for the challenger. www.dickmorris.com/undecided-lean-to-insurgent/
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 11, 2012 18:48:14 GMT -5
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.htmlALL the swing states are toss ups now. They are not Romney's states, but it is significant that there are ZERO Obama swing states left. NV, CO, IA, MO, WI, MI, OH, PA (PA! a toss up!!!), NH, VA, NC, & FL have all moved to toss up. Oh, buddy...that's gotta hurt.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2012 19:18:43 GMT -5
me neither. not even a scathing critique of Romney. Why is that? I've gone in depth giving you all reasons for my opinions- now it's time for some of you to explain yourselves. because everything i have read from that paper since it changed ownership (i used to be a subscriber) has been absolute rubbish.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2012 19:19:30 GMT -5
See, now 48/47 I believe. Of course, all that really matters is how those votes are distributed among the states. Margin of error almost always goes to the challenger. Late undecideds break for the challenger. i already stated that.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2012 19:21:13 GMT -5
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.htmlALL the swing states are toss ups now. They are not Romney's states, but it is significant that there are ZERO Obama swing states left. NV, CO, IA, MO, WI, MI, OH, PA (PA! a toss up!!!), NH, VA, NC, & FL have all moved to toss up. Oh, buddy...that's gotta hurt. RCP is really conservative on that stuff. they are the only one that rates half of these states as tossups. more important to your cause, if i may call it that, is that Romney doesn't lead by any significant margin in any of those swing states save NC.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2012 19:31:18 GMT -5
Thanks for a dignified response, dj. I couldn't come up with anything other than "your mom has zero swing states."
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usaone
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Post by usaone on Oct 11, 2012 19:42:47 GMT -5
Rasmussen has it 48% Obama 47% Mitt
Fox News has Mitt at 46% Obama 45%
Polls are shifting back to Obama already.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 11, 2012 19:48:18 GMT -5
Thanks for a dignified response, dj. I couldn't come up with anything other than "your mom has zero swing states." *lol* That one deserves a karma. ;D
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2012 20:01:44 GMT -5
I'm not proud. We seriously need to just vote already.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 11, 2012 20:54:59 GMT -5
Your mom swings in multiple states.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 11, 2012 21:00:04 GMT -5
My theory is simple- 2012 is 2010 Part II because nothing has changed the minds of voters that repudiated Obama in 2010. GOP voter registration and voter enthusiasm are up since 2010, Dems are down, and Undecided voters break for the insurgent challenger by 89%, so anything inside the margin of error goes to Romney. We will see if I'm right, but right now I'm not doubting me.
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Post by TonyTiger on Oct 11, 2012 21:01:49 GMT -5
Not that I have much of a vested interest in seeing Fearless Leader reelected, but, the sheer arrogance and hubris I see from some of the media et al in connection with some recent poll changes just tickles the hell outta me... Then again, polls don't really mean diddly squat, as some of our predecessors learned at the price of becoming Epic Fail Icons... Sorry... the Devil made me do it... ;D
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 11, 2012 21:02:17 GMT -5
Rasmussen has it 48% Obama 47% Mitt Fox News has Mitt at 46% Obama 45% Polls are shifting back to Obama already. Well, I guess it's all over then.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 11, 2012 21:03:11 GMT -5
If everything is rubbish, it shouldn't be hard to come up with an example or two, dj.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 11, 2012 22:08:14 GMT -5
This thread is going to be merged with the previous thread on Romney and "swing states", paul. Let's keep all the rah-rahs in one thread, please. Thanks.
mmhmm, P&M Moderator
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Post by Opti on Oct 11, 2012 22:18:53 GMT -5
My theory is simple- 2012 is 2010 Part II because nothing has changed the minds of voters that repudiated Obama in 2010. GOP voter registration and voter enthusiasm are up since 2010, Dems are down, and Undecided voters break for the insurgent challenger by 89%, so anything inside the margin of error goes to Romney. We will see if I'm right, but right now I'm not doubting me. Because of course there is no way it would follow the pattern of 2004 when that break didn't.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 11, 2012 23:50:16 GMT -5
My theory is simple- 2012 is 2010 Part II because nothing has changed the minds of voters that repudiated Obama in 2010. GOP voter registration and voter enthusiasm are up since 2010, Dems are down, and Undecided voters break for the insurgent challenger by 89%, so anything inside the margin of error goes to Romney. We will see if I'm right, but right now I'm not doubting me. Because of course there is no way it would follow the pattern of 2004 when that break didn't. Actually, a return to normal turnout wouldn't be good for Obama, either. Most polls (including Rasmussen, btw) are weighting their presidential polls based upon the last presidential election- in 2008. My simple theory pretty much assumes the obvious: 2008 was an anomaly, and will not be repeated.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 15, 2012 10:20:38 GMT -5
RCP average is now tied: www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html47.3% to 47.3% Very interesting, especially when you consider their electoral map that now features no Obama swing states. They seem to be holding off moving the map because they have some polling units reporting outlier results skewing the averages- but credible polling units show that Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina are now as close to certain for Romney as they can get. The mind-blowing thing to me is that RCP has PA as a toss up. If PA is a toss up, sorry kids- but that means OH is Romney's.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 15, 2012 11:07:38 GMT -5
RCP average is tied, but Romney has led for 6 of the last 7 days...
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 15, 2012 11:57:19 GMT -5
RCP average is tied, but Romney has led for 6 of the last 7 days... and Obama has lead for 364 of the last 370 days. your point being?
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Post by Driftr on Oct 15, 2012 12:00:04 GMT -5
RCP average is tied, but Romney has led for 6 of the last 7 days... and Obama has lead for 364 of the last 370 days. your point being? Momentum baby! Virgil - you feeling nervous yet? Oh man oh man I can't wait to spend all my new karma... PBP - You better be right. I'm putting some things on karma credit.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 15, 2012 12:01:20 GMT -5
and Obama has lead for 364 of the last 370 days. your point being? Momentum baby! momentum for Romney has pretty clearly stopped....um...darling?Virgil - you feeling nervous yet? Oh man oh man I can't wait to spend all my new karma... PBP - You better be right. I'm putting some things on karma credit. karma is a bitch. doncha know?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2012 12:01:38 GMT -5
Who would have thought that debates actually matter? 2008 was an anomaly but did Obama win by enough in 2008 that a lower turnout would hurt him this go round?
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 15, 2012 12:02:03 GMT -5
HP has taken NV, IA, and NH out of tossup this morning, and put them back into "leans Obama".
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 15, 2012 12:02:53 GMT -5
Who would have thought that debates actually matter? 2008 was an anomaly but did Obama win by enough in 2008 that a lower turnout would hurt him this go round? a lower turnout will generally favor Democrats, as their demographics vote in lower numbers than the GOP.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 15, 2012 12:04:34 GMT -5
come polldance with me, Paul.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 15, 2012 12:05:45 GMT -5
Because of course there is no way it would follow the pattern of 2004 when that break didn't. Actually, a return to normal turnout wouldn't be good for Obama, either. Most polls (including Rasmussen, btw) are weighting their presidential polls based upon the last presidential election- in 2008. My simple theory pretty much assumes the obvious: 2008 was an anomaly, and will not be repeated. you mean in 2012? it will absolutely be repeated. maybe 2016?
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