djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 10, 2012 20:13:37 GMT -5
there are two things i want to point out here, before i go further. one. the undecided vote has dropped off considerably since the debate. most of it has gone to Romney. totally normal, except in degree. two. the estimate swing is 8.5% of the debate margin of victory (also polled) = 4.6%. Obama was ahead 3.2%, according to RCP, before the debate. therefore, based on his performance, we would expect Romney to rise to +1.4%. he is at +1%, as of today. there is nothing surprising or mysterious or conspiratorial about ANY of this. this is perfectly well established stuff. anyone who is coming unglued about all of this should really get a grip. I agree that there's nothing abnormally conspiratorial about any of this. I don't claim that the mainstream polling organizations are biased, but I have no doubt that as has traditionally been the case, the media reporting the polls are biased and they tend to pick and choose the salient points that support their position that Obama is going to win the election. i don't think it has anything to do with Obama. they tend to support the person they perceive as being in their best interests. this is more of an ass kissing tendency than it is political. jmho. the poll bias for the last 10 elections is within 1% of actual results. that is hardly enough to concern anyone. if you don't like the commentary, read the polls instead.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 10, 2012 20:14:35 GMT -5
I think it's hysterical that the Right Wing was claiming the polls were flawed when they showed Obama leading. Now they are totally giddy citing the same polls..... ;D The polls always tend to tighten before the race. Before that, they are free to try to sway voters with the false sense of inevitability. in that case, they did a really shitty job this year. Obama was never a clear leader in this race.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 10, 2012 20:17:02 GMT -5
So, did we settle this - no need to keep up the charade of campaigning for the next month, because there is only one conclusion, right? i asked this question earlier, and got no reply.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2012 20:34:18 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 10, 2012 20:37:36 GMT -5
RCP is very conservative in how it allocates EV. but although it is true that Obama has lost 34 EV according to that extremely conservative methodology, it is neither true that Romney gained that much, NOR is it true that he is in the lead according to that same methodology. i suspect that the ride stops here, unless Romney can do something more. and he very well may. but 1-2 weeks is about as much bounce as EITHER candidate has ever got.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2012 20:47:58 GMT -5
"RCP is very conservative in how it allocates EV."
Yes, I think in one state Obama still showed a 4% lead. However, when you go look at the polls, you see that its all pre-debate polls are even keeping the lead that high.
"it is neither true that Romney gained that much, NOR is it true that he is in the lead according to that same methodology"
Thanks. That's what I said.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 10, 2012 21:01:06 GMT -5
"RCP is very conservative in how it allocates EV." Yes, I think in one state Obama still showed a 4% lead. However, when you go look at the polls, you see that its all pre-debate polls are even keeping the lead that high. actually, if you look at the polls, i think you will find some "settling", ib. but whatever. if it makes you happy to think that Romney is going to keep extending this winning streak, who am i to spoil it for you?"it is neither true that Romney gained that much, NOR is it true that he is in the lead according to that same methodology" Thanks. That's what I said. good, then we are all copacetic, eh? edit: it is not true what you are saying about the pre debate polling in the case of electoral-vote.com. they are kinda strange in that way. they only count either the latest poll, or in the case of more than one poll falling on that same day, the combination of those polls. so, in fact, what you see is pretty much a "now-cast". they are currently showing 312 for Obama, which i think is absurd. if you compare this to, say- Huffington- there is a significant lag between now and what they are showing (which is 275 for Obama). ditto for rcp (which shows 217 for Obama and only 181 for Romney). of the three, i find Huffington to be a good combination of strong methodology and good weighting practices that tend to dampen out the noise, but i am also keenly aware that they won't catch the movements as quickly as RCP, so i tend to average the two. when i do that, as of today, Obama does not have enough blue in his column to win. i think that Romney is pretty solid in NC now, as i said earlier. and i also think that VA and CO are tossups. that is also part of this trend. but beyond that, i can't really concede much to Romney at this point. hell, he doesn't really even have FL solidly in his column, yet. and he really should, you know? 538 has Obama at about 295 on both nowcast AND on 11/6, which means that they are saying that likely events that could change the outcome are minimal. i actually agree with that. and, again, i agree with everyone who says this is going to be a close election. what i fervently disagree with is that EITHER candidate will get a blowout. two weeks ago, i thought Obama had about a 10% chance of it, if he crushed Romney in the first debate. i still think that was true. but it is no longer true, owing to the result of that debate. i now doubt either candidate will get 3% more than the other, and the chances of something akin to a tie or a split are very real. am i surprised by this? only compared to two weeks ago.
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Post by EVT1 on Oct 10, 2012 21:44:35 GMT -5
Sure Paul- all of the pollsters and statisticians that do this for a living made a rookie error- go ahead and show them the error of their ways. What was it- at least a 11-15 point error- maybe you should sell your superior methodology ;D
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 10, 2012 22:04:18 GMT -5
Sure Paul- all of the pollsters and statisticians that do this for a living made a rookie error- go ahead and show them the error of their ways. What was it- at least a 11-15 point error- maybe you should sell your superior methodology ;D psssssssst- i know where Paul read about the 7% lead in Florida that doesn't exist. same article that posted about West's 12% lead. it was a poll of Sentinel County.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 11, 2012 0:44:22 GMT -5
there are two things i want to point out here, before i go further. one. the undecided vote has dropped off considerably since the debate. most of it has gone to Romney. totally normal, except in degree. two. the estimate swing is 8.5% of the debate margin of victory (also polled) = 4.6%. Obama was ahead 3.2%, according to RCP, before the debate. therefore, based on his performance, we would expect Romney to rise to +1.4%. he is at +1%, as of today. there is nothing surprising or mysterious or conspiratorial about ANY of this. this is perfectly well established stuff. anyone who is coming unglued about all of this should really get a grip. Nothing surprising? Just the other day you stated, despite Romney's performance at the debate, he would fail to gain enough new support to match Obama's lead. I guess it might be a surprise to you after all.
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Post by TonyTiger on Oct 11, 2012 6:11:49 GMT -5
The only poll that REALLY counts is just ahead, on November 6th...
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 11, 2012 7:50:25 GMT -5
Rolling, rolling, rolling....... Crack! Rawhide!
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 11, 2012 8:02:02 GMT -5
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 11, 2012 8:08:23 GMT -5
PBP, even you have to admit Californification is lost..........
By the way, I disagree that Romney will win in Wisconsin. It is lost in La La land with Illinois, politically speaking.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 11, 2012 8:12:10 GMT -5
New overnight numbers-close race, Virginia, Florida, swinging Romney's way, Ohio still holding for Obama with early voting heavy and all Obama........ Romney will still take Ohio in November, imo Momentum in terms of enthusiasum is favoring Romney right now.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 11, 2012 8:16:12 GMT -5
Sure Paul- all of the pollsters and statisticians that do this for a living made a rookie error- go ahead and show them the error of their ways. What was it- at least a 11-15 point error- maybe you should sell your superior methodology ;D You DO know that Gallup got sued by the regime? You DO realize they changed their methodology as a result? www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-politics-and-gallup-poll_654143.html
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 11, 2012 8:21:26 GMT -5
IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll Day 2: Oct. 10, 2012 Romney: +5.0 Romney’s lead widened to 5 points from 2 points on Tuesday, as he continues to chip away at key Obama support. Romney’s edge among independents widened to 20 points from 18 just a day before. Obama’s lead among women narrowed from 10 points to 8 points. Romney also continues to make inroads among middle-class voters, moving from a 6-point lead against Obama with this group to a 10-point lead. Read More At IBD: news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx#ixzz28zpwaGEF
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Post by Savoir Faire-Demogague in NJ on Oct 11, 2012 8:28:53 GMT -5
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Post by usaone on Oct 11, 2012 9:50:41 GMT -5
Obama is still the favorite. 60-40.
It will come down to Ohio.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 11, 2012 9:55:57 GMT -5
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 11, 2012 10:09:24 GMT -5
...and here comes the "but"
OK, so did you all catch that? The poll assumes- based on absolutely nothing "just because" that the split in Ohio now, with the backdrop of the 2010 GOP earthquake, is 40% Democrat to 29% Republican when the actual split in the anomaly year for Democrats, 2008, was actually 39% Democrat to 31% Republican. The assumption is that the 8% split in 2008, which was a remarkable year for Democrats, has grown post 2010 to 11% lead by Democrats.
In reality?
Democrat voter registration in Ohio has plummeted by nearly 500,000 voters- and Democrats have seen the biggest drop off in the Democrat strongholds:
And if you're not already up to speed- Romney leads with independents by 20 points- up from 18 points last week.
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Post by TonyTiger on Oct 11, 2012 10:15:52 GMT -5
I remember going on an interview once, to be a Party Hack or Party Shill, and, when asked what strengths I brought to the table, I said: " I think for myself." For some strange reason the interview ended right then-and-there and I was told " We'll let you know." I wonder why I never heard from that guy again? ;D
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2012 12:27:06 GMT -5
there are two things i want to point out here, before i go further. one. the undecided vote has dropped off considerably since the debate. most of it has gone to Romney. totally normal, except in degree. two. the estimate swing is 8.5% of the debate margin of victory (also polled) = 4.6%. Obama was ahead 3.2%, according to RCP, before the debate. therefore, based on his performance, we would expect Romney to rise to +1.4%. he is at +1%, as of today. there is nothing surprising or mysterious or conspiratorial about ANY of this. this is perfectly well established stuff. anyone who is coming unglued about all of this should really get a grip. Nothing surprising? correct. nothing surprising OTHER THAN THE DEBATE RESULT. this put Romney back in the game. no question.Just the other day you stated, despite Romney's performance at the debate, he would fail to gain enough new support to match Obama's lead. I guess it might be a surprise to you after all. no, i didn't say that. what i said what that I BELIEVED that he would get a 1-2 point bounce, based on historical average, or a 2-3 point bounce, based on the internet polling of the debate (notably inaccurate). however, he did even better in the debate than that. i also pointed out that the statistical norm is 8.5% of the margin of victory in the first debate. my anticipated margin of victory was 22%. it was 2.5x that. THAT was the surprise- not the fact that it affected the results basically EXACTLY according to the statistical norms.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2012 12:28:32 GMT -5
IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll Day 2: Oct. 10, 2012 Romney: +5.0 Romney’s lead widened to 5 points from 2 points on Tuesday, as he continues to chip away at key Obama support. Romney’s edge among independents widened to 20 points from 18 just a day before. Obama’s lead among women narrowed from 10 points to 8 points. Romney also continues to make inroads among middle-class voters, moving from a 6-point lead against Obama with this group to a 10-point lead. Read More At IBD: news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx#ixzz28zpwaGEFIBD is a very low quality polling firm. but you can go whip yourself into a tizzy over this if you like, just as the left did when NPR gave it to Obama by 7% a little over a week ago.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2012 12:36:00 GMT -5
Seriously? 7%? Were they polling donors during the pledge drive?
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2012 12:39:38 GMT -5
Seriously? 7%? Were they polling donors during the pledge drive? i know. i just kinda rolled my eyes at that one. and i am rolling my eyes at IBD's too. that organization makes the Washington Times look moderate. note: just because IBD is owned and operated by right wing hacks, doesn't mean that they can't make a good poll. but their polls are pretty low quality, and generally right leaning, as it turns out.
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Post by usaone on Oct 11, 2012 12:53:12 GMT -5
Its funny how the Polls are believable now to PBP and VB.
With both Candidates at 46 to 47% and a larger % of undecided voters and Ohio still going to Obama, I am not ready to celebrate.
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Post by EVT1 on Oct 11, 2012 13:09:16 GMT -5
I wouldn't trust anything that came from IBD
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2012 13:11:47 GMT -5
I wouldn't trust anything that came from IBD me neither. not even a scathing critique of Romney.
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Post by Mkitty is pro kitty on Oct 11, 2012 13:35:14 GMT -5
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