Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Oct 15, 2012 12:10:11 GMT -5
Momentum baby! momentum for Romney has pretty clearly stopped....um...darling?Virgil - you feeling nervous yet? Oh man oh man I can't wait to spend all my new karma... PBP - You better be right. I'm putting some things on karma credit. karma is a bitch. doncha know? No. I didn't know his momentum had stopped. Does that mean the 7th of those 7 days are now back on Obama's side? If so, momentum is certainly on the side of the big O. No. I am not your darling. Not that there's anything wrong with that. No, no, not at all. Yes. Karma can be cruel. I am putting my 'Mittens Wins' mittens order on hold in the expectation that the momentum pendulum has swung back in BHO's favor.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 15, 2012 12:42:58 GMT -5
karma is a bitch. doncha know? No. I didn't know his momentum had stopped. well, let me be the first to tell you, then.Does that mean the 7th of those 7 days are now back on Obama's side? If so, momentum is certainly on the side of the big O. that might be true. he has (3) polls showing him in the lead this morning. at one point in the last week, there were ZERO.No. I am not your darling. Not that there's anything wrong with that. No, no, not at all. i am glad to see your sense of humor is well matched with your libertarian spirit.Yes. Karma can be cruel. I am putting my 'Mittens Wins' mittens order on hold in the expectation that the momentum pendulum has swung back in BHO's favor. i think that would be wise. if Mitt hands Obama his ass again tomorrow night, i would be inclined to reconsider that bet, tho.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 15, 2012 12:44:13 GMT -5
All of the economic trends are positive too. Unemployment down, jobless claims down, retail sales up, construction up, stock market up, confidence level up, those who feel things are going in the right direction up. All these are trending for Obama. the unemployment report removed one leg from Mitt's stool. the deficit report that came out today removes another. he needs to hope that this Libya thing blows up on Obama, but i seriously doubt it.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 15, 2012 12:49:36 GMT -5
All of the economic trends are positive too. Unemployment down, jobless claims down, retail sales up, construction up, stock market up, confidence level up, those who feel things are going in the right direction up. All these are trending for Obama. It's not going to matter. It's over. I just got done talking with a Romney staffer I know- and with whom I've had numerous bitter arguments over Romney's record, and ability to win because he's just so damn cocky about how inevitable it is that Romney is going to win. I have regarded him as having an unfounded confidence in Romney's ability to win- well, today he's unglued. He's normally obnoxious, and today he's on cold-fusion powered Red Bull obnoxiousness. He said, "We could give a shit about polls anymore- it's over". He said, they've thrown all the polls out and they've "set the auto-pilot, and they're cracking open the bubbly". He said the polling momentum has broken so strong in favor of Romney, that Mitt could be caught in a room full of prostitutes 10 minutes before the debate tomorrow, and it couldn't stop the wave. He said, "Brace for a blowout. An epic landslide." and "the only people that don't see it coming are those that don't want to see it, or don't want to report it, but this election is over." Now, mind you- back in June Back in June, this same friend if mine said they have always expected Obama's support to collapse in mid-October and a comfortable 320 + electoral college victory. This person said something I thought absurd at the time given my belief then that Romney couldn't win at all, let alone in a landslide. They said watch for unexpected flips in six key states- these are those states and what they looked like in June: 1. Wisconsin (Obama +4.7) 2. Iowa(Obama +2.6) 3. Oregon (last poll Obama +4) 4. New Hampshire (Obama+ 6.4) 5. Washington (Obama + 13.4) 6. Pennsylvania (Obama +7.3). I still feel that the Oregon prediction is just plain crazy talk, but my friend still insists that while Oregon is showing Obama +9 right now, it is ALL (according to my source) based entirely on the last election. It was explained to me that it's actually much closer, that Oregon is "sparsely polled", and "few people understand the results of polls in small, sparsely polled states". He says Oregon is dead even right now, and it still would not surprise him if Obama won. He said their last poll showed enthusiasm for Obama is down eight points, and enthusiasm for Romney is running 30 points higher than for McCain. What's worse for Obama, is that he's literally doing EVERYTHING wrong because he's losing the fringe, kook base, and virtually everything Obama is doing right now goes against what internal polling shows they should be doing. The Romney campaign now believes team Obama has now accepted the fact they will lose and they are in panic mode trying to prevent an embarrassing landslide defeat because Obama is "angry and obsessed with comparisons to Jimmy Carter" and they're desperately trying to keep their base together. The Romney camp is literally in "Party Mode" right now, they don't think they can be stopped. He said Mitt has a bounce in his step and a smile that won't go away. Then he added a 7th state: Illinois. He said, "Don't think Cook County will be enough to carry Obama- and don't even think he's got Cook locked up..."
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 15, 2012 12:57:38 GMT -5
All of the economic trends are positive too. Unemployment down, jobless claims down, retail sales up, construction up, stock market up, confidence level up, those who feel things are going in the right direction up. All these are trending for Obama. It's not going to matter. It's over. I just got done talking with a Romney staffer I know- and with whom I've had numerous bitter arguments over Romney's record, and ability to win because he's just so damn cocky about how inevitable it is that Romney is going to win. I have regarded him as having an unfounded confidence in Romney's ability to win- well, today he's unglued. He's normally obnoxious, and today he's on cold-fusion powered Red Bull obnoxiousness. He said, "We could give a shit about polls anymore- it's over". He said, they've thrown all the polls out and they've "set the auto-pilot, and they're cracking open the bubbly". He said the polling momentum has broken so strong in favor of Romney, that Mitt could be caught in a room full of prostitutes 10 minutes before the debate tomorrow, and it couldn't stop the wave. i think your earlier assessment of your Romney staffer was spot on. and now you are getting sucked into his vortex.
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Don Perignon
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Post by Don Perignon on Oct 15, 2012 14:39:48 GMT -5
One thing can be said with certainty about manic-depressives... the elation they experience during their manic phases is offset by the despondency they experience when they enter their depressive phases.
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Waffle
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Post by Waffle on Oct 15, 2012 14:56:59 GMT -5
I'm not worried. The 7-eleven poll still has Obama up by 19! Seriously, tomorrow's debate should be interesting. I expect the town hall format to favor Obama - but Mitt sure surprised me last time.
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Oct 15, 2012 15:04:28 GMT -5
ROMNEY WILL WIN EVERY STATE, WASHINGTON DC, PUERTO RICO, GUAM AND AMERICAN SAMOA. BIBI NETANYAHU WILL CALL EARLY ELECTIONS AND MITT WILL WIN. MITT WILL SWEEP EUROPE AS THEIR CONFIDENCE CRISIS RESULTS IN ALL COUNTRIES THERE CALLING EARLY ELECTIONS. THE SYRIAN REBELS WILL DECLARE HIM PRESIDENT AS THEY TAKE DAMASCAS. HAIL MITT!!! Oh man. Mitt got to Deminmaine too? Virgil - You are going down faster than one of Herman's business associates.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 15, 2012 16:02:30 GMT -5
ROMNEY WILL WIN EVERY STATE, WASHINGTON DC, PUERTO RICO, GUAM AND AMERICAN SAMOA. BIBI NETANYAHU WILL CALL EARLY ELECTIONS AND MITT WILL WIN. MITT WILL SWEEP EUROPE AS THEIR CONFIDENCE CRISIS RESULTS IN ALL COUNTRIES THERE CALLING EARLY ELECTIONS. THE SYRIAN REBELS WILL DECLARE HIM PRESIDENT AS THEY TAKE DAMASCAS. HAIL MITT!!! That's pretty much how this idiot sounds all the time. He started this nonsense back when he said Mitt would beat McCain in the 2008 primary- which he lost. Believe me, I take everything he says with a grain of salt, but either he (or the whole campaign) have come unhinged, or they have data that we haven't seen yet.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 15, 2012 16:29:43 GMT -5
Sorry Paul, their data just cannot be that far out from the norm. And if it is, it is indeed unhinged. This is a very close race, and right now it is trending Obama's way- which could of course, change. There is no collapse though. I admit that in a traditional election (which again, I maintain this is not) the economic numbers (rigged though they are) are trending Obama's way- but the polls are trending Romney, and momentum does appear to be building for Romney in key states like Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia which are now basically Romney states. Obama has a slight edge in Ohio if you believe polls that weighted to reflect a 2008 repeat expectation, but realistically- it's tied. I maintain that when you visit RCP and find PA a "toss up", Obama's got troubles.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 15, 2012 16:31:52 GMT -5
And you all have no idea how much I can't stand that this guy might be right. Not because I care one way or the other- it's just personal. I like the guy, and we get along famously- but I never was enamored of Romney. I'm slightly more impressed with him now, but given who he's up against- it's not that impressive. The fact that it's even close right now tells you Romney is still a weak candidate. I believe Mr. Newt would have driven Obama's poll numbers down to the 30's by now.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 15, 2012 16:46:58 GMT -5
I'm not worried. The 7-eleven poll still has Obama up by 19! Seriously, tomorrow's debate should be interesting. I expect the town hall format to favor Obama - but Mitt sure surprised me last time. i suggest you look up Gish+gallop+Romney on Google. you won't be surprised next time.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 15, 2012 16:54:52 GMT -5
Sorry Paul, their data just cannot be that far out from the norm. And if it is, it is indeed unhinged. This is a very close race, and right now it is trending Obama's way- which could of course, change. There is no collapse though. I admit that in a traditional election (which again, I maintain this is not) the economic numbers (rigged though they are not) there, fixed it for you. and i saved you a visit from HHS.are trending Obama's way- but the polls are not trending Romney, this one was more debatable. i would argue that if you are looking over the last 2 weeks, the trend is undeniable. over the last week, this statement is highly debatable. 538 just moved CO, and VA back to leans Obama today. in addition, they have him up 0.6% on the national polling and +6% on the probability of win on the 6th. as i have said probably a dozen times- Romney was down a touchdown and kicked two field goals. but it is the 4th quarter, and Obama has the ball.and momentum does appear to be building for Romney in key states like Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia which are now basically Romney states. bullshit. if the election was held today, i concede that Romney would win two of these three, but the momentum is NOT building at this time.Obama has a slight edge in Ohio if you believe polls that weighted to reflect a 2008 repeat expectation, but realistically- it's tied. realistically, it is about the same as the US map. i will basically give you whatever odds you like that whoever wins the popular vote will win the election. it is a sucker bet, tho.I maintain that when you visit RCP and find PA a "toss up", Obama's got troubles. not really. RCP's methodology is really poor on tossups. Obama's odds of winning PA are about the same as Romney's of winning Montana or Arizona.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 15, 2012 16:59:21 GMT -5
Which side of the bet did you take, again? I've got a table buried somewhere with all the bets. I still need to pad my book in case of a Romney upset. For anyone reading this, I'm offering 2-to-1 odds for Romney. Meaning: if Pres. Obama is re-elected, I'll pay you 10 karma. If Mr. Romney manages the upset, you'll pay me 20 karma. No, I don't want to bet with money. Yes, you can make it 40/20 or even 60/30 if you're feeling particularly adventurous. And yes, you can make a new bet with me at these new odds to add it to any existing bets you may have with me. So Democrats: show me your confidence. All you have to do is tell me how much you're in for.
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Oct 15, 2012 17:04:12 GMT -5
I rely on you for these things Virgil. If you stop remembering this, the whole system breaks down. I do know you recently re-posted it. Now I just need to try and find it. You gave me pretty incredible odds. I'm pretty sure I got Mittens.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 15, 2012 17:05:57 GMT -5
I rely on you for these things Virgil. If you stop remembering this, the whole system breaks down. I do know you recently re-posted it. Now I just need to try and find it. You gave me pretty incredible odds. I'm pretty sure I got Mittens. you guys are cracking me up. ok, lunchtime.
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Oct 15, 2012 17:14:34 GMT -5
I rely on you for these things Virgil. If you stop remembering this, the whole system breaks down. I do know you recently re-posted it. Now I just need to try and find it. You gave me pretty incredible odds. I'm pretty sure I got Mittens. you guys are cracking me up. ok, lunchtime. Dang. Just about time for dinner here in Dallas. I found it Virgil. Reply #37 and probably a few updates afterwards for others here: notmsnmoney.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=politics&action=display&thread=26903&page=2And yes, I almost tried to rickroll you, but figured you wouldn't fall for it and the payback would hurt.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 15, 2012 17:38:00 GMT -5
Correct on both counts, sir. The most recent table appears to be Reply #57 of that same thread. I gave you 7-to-1 odds against Romney. If all of the above isn't just Paul's fantasy and Mr. Romney does actually pull off the upset, you're going to clean up. I still think Pres. Obama will win a second term. I'm not as confident as I was 14 months ago, and in fact my confidence is the lowest it's ever been, but I don't believe the polls are fudging numbers as much as Paul and his friend on the campaign trail think they are.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 16, 2012 10:21:58 GMT -5
The DATA IS IN...
Biden's bizarre debate performance has hurt their re-election bid.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 16, 2012 10:36:21 GMT -5
Based on how the stock markets had been slipping, and now that Romney has surged in the polls, the markets are determining Romney is winning. Historically the markets go up in anticipation of a Republican victory in November. Of course, this does not guarentee longterm results after he is elected...........
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deziloooooo
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Post by deziloooooo on Oct 16, 2012 10:45:23 GMT -5
Did a quick look at your post as to who and what ...find last one..only one checked.."escape tyranny yadda yadda...mast headed by " "Social network for Conservatives "..and who the hell is Dr. Keith Ablow Credentials any ?? Geez almighty Paul...where do you get these sources from...and why post them..is it to far fetched to have a real conversation on politics here ? Ok..forget that one... but still, "Escape tyranny " yadda yadda...?? [sheesh] Who and what kind of individual would you expect such sources would have write their articles...Bill Moyer ? I really doubt it... ok, got to go...Ciao....
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 16, 2012 10:53:50 GMT -5
Did a quick look at your post as to who and what ...find last one..only one checked.."escape tyranny yadda yadda...mast headed by " "Social network for Conservatives "..and who the hell is Dr. Keith Ablow Credentials any ?? Geez almighty Paul...where do you get these sources from...and why post them..is it to far fetched to have a real conversation on politics here ? Ok..forget that one... but still, "Escape tyranny " yadda yadda...?? [sheesh] Who and what kind of individual would you expect such sources would have write their articles...Bill Moyer ? I really doubt it... ok, got to go...Ciao.... You realize the sources cited aren't invalidated by the site they're posted on, right?
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 16, 2012 10:55:54 GMT -5
PBP, If it ain't on Debka, it is not factual. Just ask him
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 16, 2012 11:02:41 GMT -5
PBP, If it ain't on Debka, it is not factual. Just ask him
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2012 11:11:39 GMT -5
Dr. Keith Ablow Cr He does a lot of consulting on trials. He's written some books on criminals. I'm a true crime fan. An analyst (can't remember where) looked at three different scenarios for voter turnout by focusing on minorities and figured Obama would win in two out of three of them. He used 2004 numbers as well as 2008 but disregarded 2010 because it was not a presidential election. I was surprised to learn from his analysis that only 70% of black, and 40% of hispanics, are eligible to vote.
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deziloooooo
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Post by deziloooooo on Oct 16, 2012 11:12:31 GMT -5
PBP, If it ain't on Debka, it is not factual. Just ask him Yet how many times have I prefaced my post of articles from that source with a warning and explanation of who Debka is, their possible agenda a "so beware as you read the article yadda, yadda....might have a ulterior motive" ..don't believe I have ever seen you post such a disclaimer, heads up.. on any of your numerouse posts Paul..so I'll stay with my Debka articles against what was it again..."Escape from Tyranny .." ??...fair minded , non partison media source..??
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Oct 16, 2012 11:20:23 GMT -5
PBP, If it ain't on Debka, it is not factual. Just ask him I thought wiki was another approved source. Dr Ablow must not have a page yet.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2012 11:22:16 GMT -5
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 16, 2012 11:44:39 GMT -5
You guys are killing me this morning! I don't know if it's because the US election is just a few weeks away, but this is getting positively surreal. Maybe we should analyze how many hands Paul Ryan uses to flip off the camera while scrubbing dishes at deer crossings to determine whether he's comparatively more or less demented than Joe Biden, taking into account both the Obamas' mail-in vote and the McCain/Palin endorsement of absentee ballots... doot do dooey do do do do dooooey doot do dooey do do do do dooooey doot do do dooooey doot do do dooooey do do do do do do do do....
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 16, 2012 12:09:02 GMT -5
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