djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 31, 2012 4:34:24 GMT -5
Just for kicks... Currently Nate Silver thinks Obama has a 72.9 percent chance of winning the election. BetFair markets give him a 67.8 percent chance, the InTrade markets give him a 61.7 percent chance and the Iowa Electronic Markets give him a 61.8 percent chance. Silver currently estimates Obama will win apx 295 electoral votes. Sam Wang’s state polling meta-analysis says 303, and and Drew Linzer’s Votamatic says something like 332... 538 just raised Obama's odds to 7:2 (77%), his best showing since just after the 1st debate, and is getting near 2% on his anticipated popular vote. furthermore, Virginia and Colorado are no longer tossups, but lean Obama according to 538, and Florida is a tossup. this is looking worse than i thought for Romney. edit: i have no idea where 538 is getting it's numbers on Virginia, but i look forward to reading about it tomorrow. HP is showing it as a dead heat.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 31, 2012 4:35:28 GMT -5
Just for kicks... Currently Nate Silver thinks Obama has a 72.9 percent chance of winning the election. BetFair markets give him a 67.8 percent chance, the InTrade markets give him a 61.7 percent chance and the Iowa Electronic Markets give him a 61.8 percent chance. Silver currently estimates Obama will win apx 295 electoral votes. Sam Wang’s state polling meta-analysis says 303, and and Drew Linzer’s Votamatic says something like 332... Again- garbage in, garbage out. ALL polls ignore 2010. They are ALL pretending 2010 didn't happen. repeating something doesn't make it true. no pollsters are ignoring 2010.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 31, 2012 4:36:31 GMT -5
A 2.7% lead in Michigan for a Democrat is devastating. There's no other way to interpret this than Mitt Romney has put Michigan in play. After all that time and money spent by Democrats and the regime touting the bailout- to be doing this poorly in a state Obama won by 10% at this late stage is nothing short of a sign that the race is breaking in the midwest- and it's breaking for Romney. "...if you don't have any fresh ideas, then you use stale tactics to scare voters. If you don't have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run from." - Barrack Obama accepting the Democratic Party nominationINDEED! Mitt to the rescue! name me ONE Romney idea that Bush didn't articulate. good luck with that.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 31, 2012 4:38:13 GMT -5
But...but...the squirrel says Romney will win. South Carolina squirrel likes Romney Gnocchi, a squirrel from North Charleston, SC, predicts Romney will be the next president based on munching nutty treats from a bowl with the governor's face over it. He ate nine peanuts from the Romney bowl, and only five from the Obama bowl. Serene and Chris Ash, owners of the 9-year-old squirrel, say he flipped his allegiance from previous predictions - he called Obama as the winner of the 2008 Democratic primaries and the presidential election that year using the same method. actually, i am liking this nutter much better than most of the nutters that like Romney. at least he is soft, fuzzy, cute, and best of all- wordless.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 31, 2012 6:22:23 GMT -5
Hmm. I know quite a few South Carolina squirrels, both two-legged and four-legged varieties. Sadly, they ain't too bright.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 31, 2012 7:51:42 GMT -5
I for one can't wait until this thing is actually, you know.. over... I'm really REALLY hoping we don't get sucked into another hanging chad situation where we sit in limbo after the election, waiting to see who REALLY won. If there is any question on the outcome, rather than dragging it out we should blindfold Honey Boo Boo and let her throw a dart at a wall of pictures, whoever she hits, that's the president.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 31, 2012 8:06:08 GMT -5
Hopefully, Snookie isn't a poster on the wall.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 31, 2012 8:10:22 GMT -5
Hopefully, Snookie isn't a poster on the wall. Sad to say, we've had worse. At least Snookie would be preoccupied with .... whatever it is she actually does - and other people could run the country. We've had a few presidents (of both parties) that should have just sat on their hands their whole presidencies, we would have been better off.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 31, 2012 8:21:54 GMT -5
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2012 8:33:49 GMT -5
lol... use the rcp average for michigan, but not ohio?
Paul has six more days. Then, what do they call it in psych terms when a person is forced, abruptly, to confront their delusions and it all falls apart .... ??
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EVT1
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Post by EVT1 on Oct 31, 2012 10:10:56 GMT -5
lol... use the rcp average for michigan, but not ohio? Paul has six more days. Then, what do they call it in psych terms when a person is forced, abruptly, to confront their delusions and it all falls apart .... ?? An intervention? That would only take care of one small part of a much larger problem- delusions of grandeur come to mind. How else can people- not picking on anyone specific- casually dismiss scientists, statisticians, economists, doctors, etc. that are far more educated and experienced than they are because they think they have some special knowledge or ability to see things that everyone else misses? Facts never phase these types and are promptly ignored because they can't possibly be true because it would mean that they are wrong- which is obviously impossible.
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vandalshandle
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Post by vandalshandle on Oct 31, 2012 10:49:28 GMT -5
lol... use the rcp average for michigan, but not ohio? Paul has six more days. Then, what do they call it in psych terms when a person is forced, abruptly, to confront their delusions and it all falls apart .... ?? I think that it is referred to as a "melt-down". However, I predict that Paul won't do that. He will simply shift gears into the mode of, "Obama stole the election, and now you people are all going to reap the results of this election which will end with the total destruction of our country!". Then, Obama will go back into hibernation and we won't see him again until he appears on the inauguration stand 4 years from now when the next president is sworn in.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 31, 2012 11:02:11 GMT -5
Because sometimes they do (have some special knowledge or ability to see things that everyone else misses).
Moreover, everyone here is guilty of "going with their gut" at one time or another.
All I can say is that if Mr. Romney should win the election (I don't think he will), there are some here who will end up with every bit as much egg on their faces as Paul will if Pres. Obama is reelected.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2012 11:07:48 GMT -5
It is not impossible for Romney to win. It is just improbable at this point. His odds aren't good, but they aren't zero...
Paul is saying that it is impossible for Obama to win... ie. 'It's Over.' and Romney won...
ETA: I think the term i was inching towards was 'psychotic break'... but agree it will probably won't be that bad... just a shift towards something else...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2012 11:14:44 GMT -5
While Gallup might be showing Romney ahead, when they ask people who they think will be reelected, 54% said Obama... and only 34% said Romney...
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 31, 2012 11:16:08 GMT -5
Fair enough. But the argument in this thread is more over whether Paul's gut will turn out to be more accurate than the pollsters.
The polls are predicting a definitive Obama win. I'd say that even if Pres. Obama just barely squeaks out a win, it will give Paul's theories some credibility. He can take that as consolation.
That's consistent with the InTrade numbers. I don't think it means much.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2012 11:23:25 GMT -5
I don't think predictions are on a definitive win... I think most have him at 281-294. Its just that he is likely that he will reach that number. Very few are suggesting Obama will win by a lot... just that he WILL win. So i'm not sure how its consolation if what is being predicted actually happens ??
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 31, 2012 11:29:33 GMT -5
"I will say this for Gov. Christie, he speaks his mind, no BS. "
I admire his no-crap attitude as well.
Like when he publically scolded the mayor of the NJ island that was directly in the path of the hurricane - the mayor that encouraged the island residents to stay on the island and not evacuate as recommended - and Christie told both the mayor and the residents not to expect to be rescued during the storm, if they got into trouble, because Christie wasn't sending emergency teams out there in the storm.
I wonder if he would pass the sniff test for the far right end of his party - or possibly he would have the balls to tell the far right to stuff themselves and run as a Reagan moderate?
He'd probably get my vote.
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deziloooooo
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Post by deziloooooo on Oct 31, 2012 11:57:12 GMT -5
Where is it written that the race for the POTUS is the same as a sports event..if one plays well, makes it close..especially if one was the big underdog , it's considered a moral victory. This is serious stuff..the winner picks up all the marbles and takes them home the winner..the loser gets squat and goes where ever losers go..
That there are ancillary winners and losers, in this case Congress..that makes the Winners job a lot easier..but as we have seen..a lot of governing and accomplishments can be done when these two houses are not in the winners column..
So whether the winner gets 270 electoral or 303 electoral..it's all the same..I'll take the 270 in a heart beat..as long it's for the incumbent this time around.
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rockon
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Post by rockon on Oct 31, 2012 12:19:29 GMT -5
So while everyone makes predictions and fantasies about who will "win" what remains much less clear is what happens after the election. We will still have a country divided almost right down the middle on many issues and whoever wins will almost certainly be opposed and obstructed by the other party. Who wins is way less important then what they do or can do once elected. Obama IMO has pretty much burned any hope of working with his opposition while Romney might be smart enough and have the enough sense to keep his enemies closer then his friends. These two parties are responsible for where our country is at today and it will only change when the voters demand it. May the best man "win" let's just hope they also change!
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Angel!
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Post by Angel! on Oct 31, 2012 12:34:20 GMT -5
Nothing will change after the election. The country will still be divided. If Obama wins the right will be angry & people like PBP will be devasted & apparently really surprised. If Romney wins the left will be angry & I think it is pretty likely that the left congressmen will do much like the right did to Obama - make it their goal to make him a 1-term president & refuse to compromise on anything.
I could be wrong, I don't expect the country to come together, people to be content, or that congress to suddenly work together. There will just be 4 more years of waiting & hoping their guy gets in next time.
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EVT1
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Post by EVT1 on Oct 31, 2012 12:46:41 GMT -5
Yep- chance of gridlock polling at 100%.
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usaone
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Post by usaone on Oct 31, 2012 12:55:51 GMT -5
Obama up to nearly 80% chance of winning according to 538. Also now up to an 80% chance of winning Ohio and even Virginia now going to Obama.
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usaone
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Post by usaone on Oct 31, 2012 13:04:42 GMT -5
Chris Christie a potential Pres or vp candidate a few months ago giving verbal bouquets to Obama isn't helping......
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deziloooooo
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Post by deziloooooo on Oct 31, 2012 13:13:51 GMT -5
I don't agree with posts #921,2 or three..and will give a few reasons why I feel that way.
First off , Obama , by winning, has influence with his party..but also is free from having to make nice on issues he disagrees with in his own party..there is no third term..He owes anyone nothing..he basically did this one on his own..
He also has accomplished his big priorities ..Health care..reform of Wall street..pull out in Iraq done and time table with in his term , 2014 from Afghanistan also accomplished..and he has also mentioned the importance of reducing the deficit as a priority..believe he mentioned 4 trillion over a decade...
As far as his opposition..he has shown he can govern quite well with out their cooperation , though it would be nice to have them participating. I believe if Obama wins ..the opposition will not be so much the party of "NO " . One reason..he, Obama, will be offering programs , legislation , that they have a vested interest in..budget cuts and they will want to be part of that..Defense is a big one plus programs that benefit their own States and constituents..also realizing for many of them a reelection in two years and if seen to still be the party of "NO "..they will be vulnerable when they run again under the same tired banner s of the past..their own supporters will be saying "No " too..to their attempts for reelection..IMHO.
I believe the main stream Pubs..leaders..more moderate..will get to the more radical ones in their party..possible even the Tea Party types ..I know they say they are not members of a party really..but they are..and get them to tone down their rhetoric..for at least two years..after that..well, we start campaigning for the next big one and this POTUS will be sitting on the side lines as a observer..
If I am wrong, the three above is correct..I do believe he will recognize their strategy and obstinate behavior quicker and quickly dismiss them and govern by mandate and executive decisions quicker then he did the first time..
Personally I would hope Nancy Pelosi not take over the leadership of the House Democrats, [I don't expect the Dems to win the House }..she served her purpose i the first administration but some one not so confrontational in the second would be a better deal IMHO..unless she took direction from the POTUS and lowered her heavy handed style..
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 31, 2012 13:25:29 GMT -5
Um, no. Obama is up in Ohio by 2.4; use your pasted link to Realclearpolitics above to see. I believe that Sandy has put Obama over the top. And he is being helped by none other than Chris Christie. I will say this for Gov. Christie, he speaks his mind, no BS. I'm enjoying the lamestream press and Democrat's love affair with Chris Christie so much that it almost pains me to explain it to you. Chris Christie is a genius. Obama called up looking for a fight where he could say Christie and by extension Romney and the GOP are "politicizing the storm"-- admit it, all ya'll Democrats have been just itching to use the phrase. Instead, he got schnookered by Christie who said, "Sure, c'mon down". Now, he's going to waste a full campaign day with 6 days to go in a state he's going to win anyway touring the homes of the 1% on the Jersey Shore (I mean, let's face it-- the shore isn't exactly the 9th ward) with a GOP governor the already depressed Democrat base thinks is satan. And what's all this talk about this "changing" the race. I thought Obama has been leading all along?
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 31, 2012 13:31:33 GMT -5
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 31, 2012 13:34:20 GMT -5
... Now, he's going to waste a full campaign day with 6 days to go in a state he's going to win anyway... Would an undecided voter at home somewhere in Ohio sipping a glass of wine watching a video clip of President Obama touring the damage be more likely to eventually cast their vote for him than an undecided voter sitting in her car somewhere in Ohio stuck in a traffic jam created by a President Obama political rally?
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usaone
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Post by usaone on Oct 31, 2012 14:08:06 GMT -5
It's all about Sandy now.
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EVT1
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Post by EVT1 on Oct 31, 2012 14:12:44 GMT -5
Now, he's going to waste a full campaign day with 6 days to go in a state he's going to win anyway touring the homes of the 1% on the Jersey Shore (I mean, let's face it-- the shore isn't exactly the 9th ward) with a GOP governor the already depressed Democrat base thinks is satan. Got it- he is wasting time in a disaster zone being the president when he should be campaigning. Brilliant analysis.
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