AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 30, 2012 12:43:11 GMT -5
Oh, wow! This is devastating...this may be insurmountable...it is OVER in PA. I'm moving PA to Romney. This thing is going to be a bigger rout than I predicted. This is so bad- have any of you seen this? In 2008, the GOP absentee ballot edge in Pennsylvania was 2% Are you ready? As of now, the GOP absentee ballot edge in Pennsylvania is- are you sure you're ready? Get ready. GOP Rout in Pennsylvania Absentee Ballot Returns. www.gop.com/news/gop-blog/gop-rout-in-pennsylvania-absentee-ballot-returns/Romney wins PA. It's over. I realize that absentee ballots are a small percentage of the overall votes, but when you see an unusual shift like this, you're an absolute fool if you think the shift in absentee ballot returns of this magnitude is not indicative of a wider voter trend. This is OVER.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 30, 2012 13:42:46 GMT -5
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 30, 2012 13:44:11 GMT -5
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 30, 2012 14:57:03 GMT -5
"As Karl Rove said almost two weeks ago- no candidate with these numbers at this point has every gone on to lose the election. " Oh, so now we're quoting Karl Rove - like he's some expert and not some talking head???
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 30, 2012 14:59:50 GMT -5
"I realize that absentee ballots are a small percentage of the overall votes"
BINGO.
It's cute to see you so excited, really it is, but I think calmer heads would point out this is still too close to call, statistically.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 30, 2012 15:04:34 GMT -5
"As Karl Rove said almost two weeks ago- no candidate with these numbers at this point has every gone on to lose the election. " Oh, so now we're quoting Karl Rove - like he's some expert and not some talking head??? I keep having to explain this very simple concept to readers: Karl Rove, his nickname "The Architect" for his engineering of the two Bush victories, and ability to interpret political data notwithstanding, is not the "source" of the information. He is simply reporting the information, from history, that is not in dispute. Does that mean it couldn't be different "this time"? Of course not. There's always a chance this election will break with the tradition of every single election since 1960. The question is: How likely is that? The answer, especially informed by all the data we've got so far is: Not very.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 30, 2012 16:57:57 GMT -5
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Angel!
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Post by Angel! on Oct 30, 2012 17:08:22 GMT -5
Oh, wow! This is devastating...this may be insurmountable...it is OVER in PA. I'm moving PA to Romney. This thing is going to be a bigger rout than I predicted. This is so bad- have any of you seen this? In 2008, the GOP absentee ballot edge in Pennsylvania was 2% Are you ready? As of now, the GOP absentee ballot edge in Pennsylvania is- are you sure you're ready? Get ready. GOP Rout in Pennsylvania Absentee Ballot Returns. www.gop.com/news/gop-blog/gop-rout-in-pennsylvania-absentee-ballot-returns/Romney wins PA. It's over. I realize that absentee ballots are a small percentage of the overall votes, but when you see an unusual shift like this, you're an absolute fool if you think the shift in absentee ballot returns of this magnitude is not indicative of a wider voter trend. This is OVER. Meaningless. Note that in 2008 more republicans also returned AB & Obama still won the state by 10%. There are votes beyond AB, people don't always follow party lines, & you are overlooking independents. My theory is that republicans are more anxious to vote in this election - they have more fire in them in wanting to get obama out. My state is showing the same trends in higher republican ABs already being cast. My other theory is that with stats like this out there, the democrats will get concerned & get off their butts & go vote.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 30, 2012 17:29:57 GMT -5
I did note that. Right in my post. In 2008, Republicans outperformed Democrats in absentee ballots by 2%. At this point so far, they are returning 18.8% more ballots than Democrats, a number that, if it holds, is overwhelming.
Let's look at independents- I'm comfortable with that. Romney has a 16% to 20% lead nationally with Independent voters.
In PA, can the independent vote be that far off from the national polling? I think not.
If this were a normal election year, with a slightly less "historic" president, and a mainstream press that was not "all in" for Obama, at least someone in the mainstream media would have uttered the word, "Landslide" already. At least once.
There's just no way OH is so far off the national number- and we are down to just two of 7 national polls showing Romney down, and those two are -1. The RCP average is holding steady at +1 Romney for weeks.
If my 2010 Part II, just give Romney +5 holds- we are going to see an epic landslide of Reagan proportions.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2012 17:41:14 GMT -5
We'll see Paul, we'll see. These polls are starting to become meaningless. But according to this most scientific of polls, Obama is at 295 EV to Romney's 243. fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/We'll see.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 30, 2012 17:45:44 GMT -5
Nate Silver is only as good as the data he is looking at. My theory of the election explains fivethirtyeight simply as "garbage in, garbage out".
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 30, 2012 17:51:27 GMT -5
Oh, wow! This is devastating...this may be insurmountable...it is OVER in PA. I'm moving PA to Romney. there is no way Romney wins PA.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 30, 2012 17:52:30 GMT -5
Nate Silver is only as good as the data he is looking at. My theory of the election explains fivethirtyeight simply as "garbage in, garbage out". your theory is that basically every single poll out there is wrong, and you are right. ever hear of Ockham's Razor? edit: it is not just 538, bro. electoral-vote.com, huffington, and even (really conservative in the statistical sense) RCP have Obama up right now. in fact, other than the Examiner, there is nobody out there that is giving this to Romney at this point in time.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 30, 2012 17:53:45 GMT -5
If my 2010 Part II, just give Romney +5 holds- we are going to see an epic landslide of Reagan proportions. oh man. i am so sad that i won't be around on the 6th to watch you try and tape your jaw back on.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 30, 2012 17:55:13 GMT -5
If my 2010 Part II, just give Romney +5 holds- we are going to see an epic landslide of Reagan proportions. oh man. i am so sad that i won't be around on the 6th to watch you try and tape your jaw back on. Yeah- I am already starting to get the feeling the Romney victory is going to be a lot bigger than I have expected to this point.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 30, 2012 17:57:13 GMT -5
oh man. i am so sad that i won't be around on the 6th to watch you try and tape your jaw back on. Yeah- I am already starting to get the feeling the Romney victory is going to be a lot bigger than I have expected to this point.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 30, 2012 19:19:49 GMT -5
Obama +7 in Minnesota — KTSP/SurveyUSA
Don’t have the cross-tabs yet but this was the firm that had a D +9 poll two weeks ago with Obama leading by 10. The 2008 party ID was D +5 and in 2004 it was D +4. As soon as the details are released I’ll be certain to break down these results.
From Tom Hauser, Chief Political Reporter for KSTP-TV, St. Paul / Minneapolis:
“KSTP/SurveyUSA: Obama 50% Romney 43% Other/undecided 7%. Obama had 50% to 40% lead two weeks ago. Margin of error +/-4.2″
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 30, 2012 19:25:39 GMT -5
Delay the election? Shoot, the only shot Barry has is to move it up, and everyone vote now. This thing is so over.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2012 19:30:26 GMT -5
I for one can't wait until this thing is actually, you know.. over...
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2012 19:51:08 GMT -5
Just for kicks... Currently Nate Silver thinks Obama has a 72.9 percent chance of winning the election. BetFair markets give him a 67.8 percent chance, the InTrade markets give him a 61.7 percent chance and the Iowa Electronic Markets give him a 61.8 percent chance. Silver currently estimates Obama will win apx 295 electoral votes. Sam Wang’s state polling meta-analysis says 303, and and Drew Linzer’s Votamatic says something like 332...
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 30, 2012 19:56:25 GMT -5
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 30, 2012 22:39:04 GMT -5
Just for kicks... Currently Nate Silver thinks Obama has a 72.9 percent chance of winning the election. BetFair markets give him a 67.8 percent chance, the InTrade markets give him a 61.7 percent chance and the Iowa Electronic Markets give him a 61.8 percent chance. Silver currently estimates Obama will win apx 295 electoral votes. Sam Wang’s state polling meta-analysis says 303, and and Drew Linzer’s Votamatic says something like 332... Again- garbage in, garbage out. ALL polls ignore 2010. They are ALL pretending 2010 didn't happen. You can't gloss over the sea change in politics. 2010 wasn't just an election, it was a political earthquake. To ignore all the metrics and assume a 2008 turnout is just plain wild-eyed fantasy-- and what I believe is faulty weighting given to the polls is before we even start looking at bias. But hey, if Obama has a 73% chance of winning, his supporters can relax. I mean why worry-- he is up +2.7 points. In Michigan. m.detnews.com/politics/article?a=2012210300442&f=1215
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2012 22:41:18 GMT -5
I'm actually not worried
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2012 22:48:00 GMT -5
I should clarify.. Not worried about the election outcome.
I am slightly concerned for your ability to weather the outcome...
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 31, 2012 0:00:58 GMT -5
A 2.7% lead in Michigan for a Democrat is devastating. There's no other way to interpret this than Mitt Romney has put Michigan in play. After all that time and money spent by Democrats and the regime touting the bailout- to be doing this poorly in a state Obama won by 10% at this late stage is nothing short of a sign that the race is breaking in the midwest- and it's breaking for Romney.
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dothedd
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Post by dothedd on Oct 31, 2012 0:06:04 GMT -5
A 2.7% lead in Michigan for a Democrat is devastating. There's no other way to interpret this than Mitt Romney has put Michigan in play. After all that time and money spent by Democrats and the regime touting the bailout- to be doing this poorly in a state Obama won by 10% at this late stage is nothing short of a sign that the race is breaking in the midwest- and it's breaking for Romney. "...if you don't have any fresh ideas, then you use stale tactics to scare voters. If you don't have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run from." - Barrack Obama accepting the Democratic Party nominationINDEED! Mitt to the rescue!
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 31, 2012 1:49:02 GMT -5
Nate Silver is only as good as the data he is looking at. My theory of the election explains fivethirtyeight simply as "garbage in, garbage out". I have it on good authority that if you average enough garbage, you come out with a reasonable estimate. (with apologies to DJ ) On a separate topic: how about an update to the thread title? The term "mittmentum" somehow managed to crawl out of the crater where puns go to die. :-\
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Post by weltschmerz on Oct 31, 2012 2:45:44 GMT -5
But...but...the squirrel says Romney will win.
South Carolina squirrel likes Romney Gnocchi, a squirrel from North Charleston, SC, predicts Romney will be the next president based on munching nutty treats from a bowl with the governor's face over it. He ate nine peanuts from the Romney bowl, and only five from the Obama bowl. Serene and Chris Ash, owners of the 9-year-old squirrel, say he flipped his allegiance from previous predictions - he called Obama as the winner of the 2008 Democratic primaries and the presidential election that year using the same method.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 31, 2012 4:30:08 GMT -5
Obama +7 in Minnesota — KTSP/SurveyUSA Don’t have the cross-tabs yet but this was the firm that had a D +9 poll two weeks ago with Obama leading by 10. The 2008 party ID was D +5 and in 2004 it was D +4. As soon as the details are released I’ll be certain to break down these results. From Tom Hauser, Chief Political Reporter for KSTP-TV, St. Paul / Minneapolis: “KSTP/SurveyUSA: Obama 50% Romney 43% Other/undecided 7%. Obama had 50% to 40% lead two weeks ago. Margin of error +/-4.2″ huffington has him +6.8%, so this is right in line with that. although mitt is gaining here, gaining 7% in a week is pretty much impossible in MN.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 31, 2012 4:31:55 GMT -5
his average is about +7%. Michigan is also not seriously in contention.
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