AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 29, 2012 12:08:53 GMT -5
Ohio is NOT tied. Obama is up 2-3 points. Virginia IS tied, and it is trending Obama. If Obama gets both of these states it is difficult to envision a path to victory for Romney. I'd love to know why you think Ohio is not tied? Gimme a link. spectator.org/archives/2012/10/29/is-the-ohio-trend-romneys-frieHow is it plausible the bell weather state of Ohio could be so isolated from the national trend? It's not.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 29, 2012 12:18:20 GMT -5
No matter who wins the election, you can look for several states to simply nullify the law. They can't so good luck with that. Some states are however planning on the provision that allows them to create their own system- take VT and their single payer system that is coming online for example- great idea. That's the only ticket out unless the GOP can get a supermajority- not happening. There was a lot of screaming and gnashing of teeth back when SSS and medicare first went into effect. Socialism, the end of the country as we know it, we can't afford the expense, etc etc. Now, both programs have proven to be very successful and you'll find very few politicians of any political party (except maybe the libertarians) who want to eliminate either one. Tweak them, yes, eliminate them, no. The president hasn't done a good job of explaining what Obamacare provides, and the Republicans have done a good job chumming the waters with misinformation about the program. If Obama gets re-elected, hopefully the country will have four years to weigh the merits of the program (keep in mind, the program is still in the process of being implimented right now). I predict once it becomes better understood people will decide the advantages will outweigh the disadvantages, and in 25 years we we'll consider this a huge improvement.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 29, 2012 14:06:57 GMT -5
Yes, and as it turns out both Social Security and Medicare have been a total disaster. They've both failed. They're at the heart of our fiscal mess. And we can't afford another disaster on top of the two that already desperately need reform.
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deziloooooo
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Post by deziloooooo on Oct 29, 2012 14:46:46 GMT -5
Yes, and as it turns out both Social Security and Medicare have been a total disaster. They've both failed. They're at the heart of our fiscal mess. And we can't afford another disaster on top of the two that already desperately need reform. mmmm.... Since you are to young to be partaking of..it is easy to throw bricks ..however, for those who are now enjoying the benefits..I say for you and I...thank you, thank you Democrate leadership from the past..{with a few moderate pubs thrown in for good measure..also knew what was important legislation to support} with out it..I would have hated to see what the alternative would have been... {Just curiouse , you have no one your close to..friends..more important..family..say parents..aunts, Uncles ..cousins..possible older siblings..who are also being covered by these two pieces of legislation..so you might be able to judge their [The programs] importance to them} oops..I apologize...I was thinking we were really going to get into a honest frank discussion of the benefits , plusses and the negatives and minuses of the two programs that one of the posters slammed as being so bad and inefficient..a waste..forgot who was making the remark..me bad, me bad..
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 29, 2012 15:08:24 GMT -5
Yes, and as it turns out both Social Security and Medicare have been a total disaster. They've both failed. They're at the heart of our fiscal mess. And we can't afford another disaster on top of the two that already desperately need reform. Social Security has actually been one of the most successful programs, if not the most successful program, of the last 100 years. It gave a measure of financial security to seniors who before it's inception had a very high rate of poverty. Our population dynamics have changed, and the parameters of the financial equation that fund it obviously need to change as well, like by 10 years ago. Or, realistically, ASAP. But the program itself is viable and very worthy. Medicare is a bit thornier. It is part of a health care system that is largely broken. It is unsustainable in it's current form. The giveaway prescription drug program that Bush added to buy his re-election only makes it worse. BUT the program itself is efficient, and well run overall. Eventually it should be the basis of our single payer universal healthcare system, whereby all Americans are covered. You're describing two bankrupt programs as "the most successful program of the last 100 years" and "efficient, and well run overall"? Oh, wait- you think Ohio is not tied.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 29, 2012 15:11:39 GMT -5
I don't want to get too far off the track of the OT- Romney is going to win in a landslide, but the NY Times reported in April:
Now, in truth- they're both already broke. There never was a trust fund, and no trust fund currently exists. We borrow 42 cents on every dollar, if we stopped borrowing money immediately- we'd have to cut payments to beneficiaries in both programs immediately.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 29, 2012 16:15:41 GMT -5
Au contraire, I do NOT think Ohio is tied. Obama was up 2.7 in aggregate in Ohio this morning. ;D When you can explain to me why it is that you think Ohio is off the national polls anywhere from a minimum of 3% up to 7% AND say why you think that- I'd love to read it. Maybe you can tell me how women and minorities are going to make up for a 24% to 28% swing in Independent voters from 2008 when Obama won over 8% of Independents, and a 12% spread with male voters.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 29, 2012 16:27:32 GMT -5
Yes, and as it turns out both Social Security and Medicare have been a total disaster. They've both failed. They're at the heart of our fiscal mess. which fiscal mess? certainly not the deficit.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 29, 2012 16:31:17 GMT -5
Au contraire, I do NOT think Ohio is tied. Obama was up 2.7 in aggregate in Ohio this morning. ;D When you can explain to me why it is that you think Ohio is off the national polls anywhere from a minimum of 3% up to 7% AND say why you think that- I'd love to read it. fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/11/oct-10-is-romney-leading-right-now/Maybe you can tell me how women and minorities are going to make up for a 24% to 28% swing in Independent voters from 2008 when Obama won over 8% of Independents, and a 12% spread with male voters. yawn.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 29, 2012 16:39:28 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 29, 2012 16:44:23 GMT -5
suddenly an ABC fan? edit: did you see the Pew poll, Paul? they show Obama +4% in the last (2) weeks. so much for Mittmentum, eh?
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 29, 2012 22:53:32 GMT -5
When you can explain to me why it is that you think Ohio is off the national polls anywhere from a minimum of 3% up to 7% AND say why you think that- I'd love to read it. fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/11/oct-10-is-romney-leading-right-now/Maybe you can tell me how women and minorities are going to make up for a 24% to 28% swing in Independent voters from 2008 when Obama won over 8% of Independents, and a 12% spread with male voters. yawn. dj- that link is to an article written on 10/11. Got anything more recent?
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 29, 2012 22:54:52 GMT -5
suddenly an ABC fan? edit: did you see the Pew poll, Paul? they show Obama +4% in the last (2) weeks. so much for Mittmentum, eh? Again, if you want me to see something- just post the link. It's the easiest (if not the only) way to get me to look at something.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 29, 2012 23:08:47 GMT -5
And btw- the same poll shows Obama +1 in Florida- a State Obama is, in reality, going to lose by 5 or 6 points. Fascinating, isn't it-- that's almost the exact number I said you had to automatically weight the polls by to get an accurate result.
Nate Silver has a great track record, I'll give him that. I don't by the hype that he "eschews punditry and speculation" as one of my good liberal friends, a Chicago attorney, puts it. It's all speculation until the last vote is counted. The whole notion of polling is predicated on the idea that you can take a representative sample ranging in size from 209 to 1523, give varying weight to registered Republicans, registered Democrats, Independents, and unaffiliated voters and extrapolate from it who will win the election. So, the idea that Nate Silver is the lone prognosticator who isn't speculating is not a premise I accept. He does have a pretty decent track record, though- and I'll give him that. This year, I think where he will fall short is explained simply- garbage in, garbage out. Virtually every poll is weighted to reflect something resembling the 2008 election. I maintain- and I could well be wrong- but my 'speculation' is that 2008 was an anomaly. Obama was a man with a thin resume and no record to speak of running in a race without an incumbent president as the potential first black president. To the extent there was an incumbent- it was Bush, and Bush fatigue was heavy in the air. Throw in a Democrat voter registration figure of +10, mix in a little hope & change, a dash of "historic" and it was a- how did Biden put it? "A story book, man". Things are different now. Obama has a record- and it's not a good one. Romney isn't Bush, and he sure as hell isn't McCain. Republican voter registration is now +1 - an 11 point swing. Obama won independents by 8%, he's now losing them by anywhere from 16% to 20% - a 24% to 28% swing. And (I hope this isn't too controversial) race is a factor- the "guilty white vote" that gave Obama the benefit of the doubt in 2008 have checked off the "voted for first black president" part of their penance- they won't be back for Barry in 2012. In fact, currently Obama enjoys the lowest level of white voter support since Walter Mondale-- and mind you, Romney doesn't even need to replicate that white voter turnout , even taking account of demographic changes since 1984, to rout Obama-- and that's just the way it's going to be in a week. Obama is going to lose a landslide as the race starts to break hard for Romney.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 30, 2012 6:46:14 GMT -5
dj- that link is to an article written on 10/11. Got anything more recent? nothing has changed in the last three weeks. the polls are almost exactly the same, Paul. and so the answer is no. the analysis from the 11th is just the same as it would be if it were done today.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 30, 2012 6:47:16 GMT -5
And btw- the same poll shows Obama +1 in Florida- a State Obama is, in reality, going to lose by 5 or 6 points. Fascinating, isn't it-- that's almost the exact number I said you had to automatically weight the polls by to get an accurate result. Nate Silver has a great track record, I'll give him that. I don't by the hype that he "eschews punditry and speculation" you mean you don't buy it? i know. i got that. but you should. he is way more analytical than you are.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 30, 2012 6:49:19 GMT -5
suddenly an ABC fan? edit: did you see the Pew poll, Paul? they show Obama +4% in the last (2) weeks. so much for Mittmentum, eh? Again, if you want me to see something- just post the link. It's the easiest (if not the only) way to get me to look at something. you can look it up if you are interested. i don't think the national tracking polls are that meaningful, personally. but you seem to live and die by them. believe me, i understand. i used to, too.
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b2r
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Post by b2r on Oct 30, 2012 9:54:06 GMT -5
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 30, 2012 10:18:11 GMT -5
"Now, in truth- they're both already broke. There never was a trust fund, and no trust fund currently exists. We borrow 42 cents on every dollar, if we stopped borrowing money immediately- we'd have to cut payments to beneficiaries in both programs immediately."
This is like complaining that you have a horrible car that won't run, when in fact, the car won't run because you failed to put gas into it. That doesn't mean the car isn't a good car.
The programs are good, and social security has been a safety net that has kept many families from living on the streets. It's allowed seniors to retire with dignity. The lack of funding comes from politicians (ALL politicians) using the fund as a cash cow. Remember Gore and his lock box? If we could just keep the SS money in it's own fund, safe from politicians who want to blow the money on things like, oh, say fighting a pointless war for a trillion dollars, SS wouldn't be broke.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2012 10:27:10 GMT -5
For PBP: Democrats love early voting because having Election Month instead of Election Day gives them time to use money and manpower to offset the GOP’s inherent advantage on voter turnout.
But is it worth more than 9 points this cycle?
That’s the gap between President Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney among those “extremely likely” to vote this year in the latest Politico/George Washington University poll of battleground states. While Obama holds a 1-point edge among all likely voters, he trails widely among those who say they are certain to vote.
When the bipartisan team of pollsters that conducted the poll tried to use turnout models to figure out how much of that gap would be closed come Election Day, the answer was less than half. In the poll’s election model, Romney was shown winning by a whopping 5 points.
Read more: www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/29/democrats-ground-game-hasnt-closed-enthusiasm-gap/#ixzz2AnRKi3na
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 30, 2012 10:31:02 GMT -5
"Now, in truth- they're both already broke. There never was a trust fund, and no trust fund currently exists. We borrow 42 cents on every dollar, if we stopped borrowing money immediately- we'd have to cut payments to beneficiaries in both programs immediately." This is like complaining that you have a horrible car that won't run, when in fact, the car won't run because you failed to put gas into it. That doesn't mean the car isn't a good car. The programs are good, and social security has been a safety net that has kept many families from living on the streets. It's allowed seniors to retire with dignity. The lack of funding comes from politicians (ALL politicians) using the fund as a cash cow. Remember Gore and his lock box? If we could just keep the SS money in it's own fund, safe from politicians who want to blow the money on things like, oh, say fighting a pointless war for a trillion dollars, SS wouldn't be broke. What you're saying is a simplistic as saying SS is great as long as the laws of mathematics don't apply to it. Well, they do apply- and as I've stated, if the US stopped borrowing money today-- kinda like a family can borrow money for awhile and pile up debt for awhile, but eventually they hit their credit limit, and/or realize they must stop borrowing-- Social Security is bankrupt the same day. The same day the US stops borrowing money, Social Security stops "working" for anyone. So, the truth is we have to get away from the childish demagoguery of Democrats and liberals, put on our big boy pants and acknowledge that we can make it work temporarily for current and soon-to-be recipients, so long as we're able to be more forward looking with future retirees and recognize that it will be phased out. There's really only two choices: 1. Keep going, let it end abruptly. 2. Grow up, face facts, and phase it out.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 30, 2012 10:33:02 GMT -5
For PBP: Democrats love early voting because having Election Month instead of Election Day gives them time to use money and manpower to offset the GOP’s inherent advantage on voter turnout.
But is it worth more than 9 points this cycle?
That’s the gap between President Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney among those “extremely likely” to vote this year in the latest Politico/George Washington University poll of battleground states. While Obama holds a 1-point edge among all likely voters, he trails widely among those who say they are certain to vote.
When the bipartisan team of pollsters that conducted the poll tried to use turnout models to figure out how much of that gap would be closed come Election Day, the answer was less than half. In the poll’s election model, Romney was shown winning by a whopping 5 points.
Read more: www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/29/democrats-ground-game-hasnt-closed-enthusiasm-gap/#ixzz2AnRKi3na
Well, well, well- who was it that said just give Romney +5 points? Good post In the question about where you want to invest on Wednesday- guns, or Prozac-- I'm leaning Prozac.
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b2r
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Post by b2r on Oct 30, 2012 10:35:41 GMT -5
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 30, 2012 11:13:55 GMT -5
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 30, 2012 11:22:01 GMT -5
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 30, 2012 11:28:58 GMT -5
Paul this is what I love most about you, how self effacing and demure you are, so dignified in defeat, so gracious in victory.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 30, 2012 11:33:57 GMT -5
Paul this is what I love most about you, how self effacing and demure you are, so dignified in defeat, so gracious in victory.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 30, 2012 11:48:12 GMT -5
These are Reagan landslide numbers. Could it be that Romney is banking early votes in places that won't ultimately matter, while Obama racks up a more meaningful early vote lead in place like Ohio? Sure. However, it is undeniable that at some point, the swing state polling aligns with national polling. Ohio in particular, is quite representative of national demographics.
As Karl Rove said almost two weeks ago- no candidate with these numbers at this point has every gone on to lose the election.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 30, 2012 12:02:56 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2012 12:33:28 GMT -5
Paul this is what I love most about you, how self effacing and demure you are, so dignified in defeat, so gracious in victory. DH and I got our ballots out yesterday.
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