EVT1
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 30, 2010 16:22:42 GMT -5
Posts: 8,596
|
Post by EVT1 on Oct 28, 2012 17:15:06 GMT -5
Don't be fatuous, Jeffrey.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 76,476
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2012 17:35:12 GMT -5
no, we don't. out of 21,000 possible permutations, the idea that Romney will win this election without winning Ohio comes up in ZERO. the reason why is that the demographics for Ohio are similar to those of the rest of the US. and because of that, the idea that Romney can win a state like, say, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania and NOT win Ohio is fatuous. he will either win both or win neither. you are aware that a Republican has NEVER won the WH without winning Ohio, right? NEVER. I agree with you- the demographics for Ohio are similar to those of the rest of the US. Which is why when you see 4 and 5 point national poll leads, and you combine it with the real-time numbers out of Ohio, you come up with a Romney win. Unless you're just engaged in wishful thinking. again, you are assuming that i have a dog in this fight. i don't. i think that Romney is a disaster for the US, but i am not sure that Obama is any better. i don't give two s*&ts who wins. there is nothing "wishful" in hoping for either- unless you are the type of person that rejoices in the misery of others. i am not.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 76,476
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2012 17:45:33 GMT -5
dude. you are calling ALL of the swing states for Romney. when WILL you come around? The only swing state that's in any question in my mind is Nevada see what i mean? for you, calling a state for Romney is like anyone else saying that the sun will rise. but to answer your question, shortly after the first debate.
|
|
EVT1
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 30, 2010 16:22:42 GMT -5
Posts: 8,596
|
Post by EVT1 on Oct 28, 2012 18:47:27 GMT -5
Outcome-wise I don't expect much difference no matter who wins. I don't see Romney carrying the torch for the hard right he had to pander to to get the nomination. And if the guy wins- I am going to have the same hope that I had for every president- that they fucking make a compromise and DO something. Like it or not 'Obamacare' is the law so get over it- Romney, or even the GOP cannot even argue against it. AS PBP says-IT'S OVER
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 28, 2012 21:15:46 GMT -5
Outcome-wise I don't expect much difference no matter who wins. I don't see Romney carrying the torch for the hard right he had to pander to to get the nomination. And if the guy wins- I am going to have the same hope that I had for every president- that they fucking make a compromise and DO something. Like it or not 'Obamacare' is the law so get over it- Romney, or even the GOP cannot even argue against it. AS PBP says-IT'S OVER Romney will carry the torch for the "hard right" Romney is going to spend his Presidency with the hard right torch under his ass and we'll be lucky if he does the one thing he most needs to do- repeal ObamaCare.
|
|
tallguy
Senior Associate
Joined: Apr 2, 2011 19:21:59 GMT -5
Posts: 14,561
|
Post by tallguy on Oct 28, 2012 21:48:54 GMT -5
Outcome-wise I don't expect much difference no matter who wins. I don't see Romney carrying the torch for the hard right he had to pander to to get the nomination. And if the guy wins- I am going to have the same hope that I had for every president- that they fucking make a compromise and DO something. Like it or not 'Obamacare' is the law so get over it- Romney, or even the GOP cannot even argue against it. AS PBP says-IT'S OVER Romney will carry the torch for the "hard right" Romney is going to spend his Presidency with the hard right torch under his ass and we'll be lucky if he does the one thing he most needs to do- repeal ObamaCare. And IF he wins, and IF he wants history to show him as even a decent President, much less a good one, he will quickly tell them all to go to hell (which coincidentally is where the vast majority of them are already heading, I'm sure.)
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 28, 2012 23:08:27 GMT -5
American cannot survive ObamaCare. That monstrosity has to go.
|
|
deziloooooo
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 16:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 10,723
|
Post by deziloooooo on Oct 28, 2012 23:13:06 GMT -5
American cannot survive ObamaCare. That monstrosity has to go. Since Obama is most likely going to be reelected I guess we will have it for another four years at least and once under way..while I can see it periodically visited and updated, tweaked where neede..it is something very new remember....I would guess a comprehensive medical plan for most of the citizens will be in force from now on...IMHO of course...possible with some needed tweaking on some parts..
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 28, 2012 23:21:46 GMT -5
Political Perceptions: Still Little Clarity In Ohio
When the incumbent isn't winning, the incumbent is losing. Incumbents don't win close or tied election fights. They lose them.
Buried in an article that is deliberately written to look like a back and forth argument between two parties trying to portray their guy as having the lead, is this gem:
With the GOP numbers double the Democrat numbers before you factor in Independents and other unaffiliated voters that we know are leaning Romney, it's not hard to draw the conclusion that unless Obama picks up steam, and a clear lead RIGHT NOW, the first few days of this week-- he's done.
And when you read that "similar trends" are happening state-wide, buddy that spells shock and awe on election day in Ohio for Mitt Romney.
I have reasons for picking my 3% Romney victory- and it's all based on the math as it is today-- but Romney continues to build momentum in Ohio and across the country.
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 28, 2012 23:22:34 GMT -5
American cannot survive ObamaCare. That monstrosity has to go. Since Obama is most likely going to be reelected I guess we will have it for another four years at least and once under way..while I can see it periodically visited and updated, tweaked where neede..it is something very new remember....I would guess a comprehensive medical plan for most of the citizens will be in force from now on...IMHO of course...possible with some needed tweaking on some parts.. No matter who wins the election, you can look for several states to simply nullify the law.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 76,476
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Oct 29, 2012 5:10:44 GMT -5
I have reasons for picking my 3% Romney victory- and it's all based on the math as it is today-- translation: it is based on false assumptionsbut Romney continues to build momentum in Ohio and across the country. there is no momentum for Romney at this time. his momentum ended 3 weeks ago. no amount of repeating this false claim will make it true, Paul.
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 29, 2012 8:12:45 GMT -5
I have reasons for picking my 3% Romney victory- and it's all based on the math as it is today-- translation: it is based on false assumptionsbut Romney continues to build momentum in Ohio and across the country. there is no momentum for Romney at this time. his momentum ended 3 weeks ago. no amount of repeating this false claim will make it true, Paul. We are getting down to the wire, and there are very few undecided voters left. The fact is that the momentum has slowed, but it still hasn't ended. In fact, it didn't even slow until the last two days. Up until yesterday, the RCP average showed gains every day- and yesterday was the first sign of slowing at -.1 point for Romney. We're at the point now where by Thursday the race breaks big for one or the other; or it stays tight and it comes down to ground game. That presents two big problems for Obama: 1. In every race since 1960, undecided voters break 89% for the challenger. In Ohio where it's allegedly tied, even if you assume those polls are making the correct assumptions- that's a Romney win by 1.8% as things sit now. 2. The GOP has the ground game in Wisconsin and Ohio.
|
|
EVT1
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 30, 2010 16:22:42 GMT -5
Posts: 8,596
|
Post by EVT1 on Oct 29, 2012 8:19:07 GMT -5
Since Obama is most likely going to be reelected I guess we will have it for another four years at least and once under way..while I can see it periodically visited and updated, tweaked where neede..it is something very new remember....I would guess a comprehensive medical plan for most of the citizens will be in force from now on...IMHO of course...possible with some needed tweaking on some parts.. No matter who wins the election, you can look for several states to simply nullify the law. They can't so good luck with that. Some states are however planning on the provision that allows them to create their own system- take VT and their single payer system that is coming online for example- great idea. That's the only ticket out unless the GOP can get a supermajority- not happening.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Oct 29, 2012 8:50:52 GMT -5
As I skimmed by I see on this thread..5 out of the last 6 posts are all by the same person..not bothering to wait to see if any answer previous posts or are just ignoring which seems to me a effort to just bump the thread up and keep it up front as a sort of ever running thread of the posters feelings on the topic... While not going to go bother to check the C of C, I have to wonder , is this obvious bumping of threads for the edification of ones own political or any specific wants and desires of a single or even a few of like minded posters , the purpose of this Proboad site ?? Is it perfect ok by most posters who do read and post here...I can see and understand a occasional bump to a thread..possible a better explanation of..something really new has come regarding the original premise of the thread ..but such obvious bumping by one particular poster on the same topic..?? This is the Politics and the markets board. If we are not going to be allowed to discuss the individal sate elections, and the fact mods keep combining similar threads, Moonbeam might as well kill all political discussion and dismantle the P&M board right now. THIS is not bumping a thread. It is an ongoing discussion of the election process which goes on for more than two days, the usual attention span of a typical thread message post to message boards. We are an exception, where posters do care, pay attention, and have a longterm perspective of the election process. That and the fact, PBP and I are correct in our perspective of the election outcome.
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 29, 2012 9:15:34 GMT -5
Ohio is NOT tied. Obama is up 2-3 points. Virginia IS tied, and it is trending Obama. If Obama gets both of these states it is difficult to envision a path to victory for Romney. 1. Yes it is. 2. You're living in a fantasy. Romney has Virginia on lockdown.
|
|
usaone
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 9:10:23 GMT -5
Posts: 3,429
|
Post by usaone on Oct 29, 2012 9:16:07 GMT -5
One week to go. Virginia is starting to lean Obama. One poll yesterday had Obama up 1 point in Florida. I still think Mitt wins Florida.
Still 65 to 75% chance of an Obama win.
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 29, 2012 9:17:10 GMT -5
As I skimmed by I see on this thread..5 out of the last 6 posts are all by the same person..not bothering to wait to see if any answer previous posts or are just ignoring which seems to me a effort to just bump the thread up and keep it up front as a sort of ever running thread of the posters feelings on the topic... While not going to go bother to check the C of C, I have to wonder , is this obvious bumping of threads for the edification of ones own political or any specific wants and desires of a single or even a few of like minded posters , the purpose of this Proboad site ?? Is it perfect ok by most posters who do read and post here...I can see and understand a occasional bump to a thread..possible a better explanation of..something really new has come regarding the original premise of the thread ..but such obvious bumping by one particular poster on the same topic..?? This is the Politics and the markets board. If we are not going to be allowed to discuss the individal sate elections, and the fact mods keep combining similar threads, Moonbeam might as well kill all political discussion and dismantle the P&M board right now. THIS is not bumping a thread. It is an ongoing discussion of the election process which goes on for more than two days, the usual attention span of a typical thread message post to message boards. We are an exception, where posters do care, pay attention, and have a longterm perspective of the election process. That and the fact, PBP and I are correct in our perspective of the election outcome. Awww, someone lost the argument and wants the toss a bomb and run away.
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 29, 2012 9:19:51 GMT -5
One week to go. Virginia is starting to lean Obama. One poll yesterday had Obama up 1 point in Florida. I still think Mitt wins Florida. Still 65 to 75% chance of an Obama win. If you know there's no chance for Obama in Florida, but you have a poll that shows Obama up one point- then you need to accept that it's like that all over the country. Every single poll that has the race tied, you will see Obama lose that race. Wisconsin is tied by the way.
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Oct 29, 2012 9:20:19 GMT -5
I am willing to admit, Ohio does scare me this morning. I am not quite as sure Romney has maintained his momentum there.
Talk is the major population centers are shifting a little more towards Obama
|
|
usaone
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 9:10:23 GMT -5
Posts: 3,429
|
Post by usaone on Oct 29, 2012 9:38:01 GMT -5
Latest poll out of Virginia has Obama up by 4 points 51 to 47. Damn!!
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 29, 2012 9:43:39 GMT -5
I am willing to admit, Ohio does scare me this morning. I am not quite as sure Romney has maintained his momentum there. Talk is the major population centers are shifting a little more towards Obama Ohio has had 109,000 fewer Democrats request absentee ballots or vote early. Romney has a huge lead with independents. There's not going to be a big surge of new Obama early voters like in 2008- when, btw, John McCain won handily those who voted on election day, with the early voters so heavily in favor of Obama that it didn't matter. Ohio is going to mirror the national polling as it has in every election since 1960. Romney has been up consistently in national polling for over a week now. It's over.
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 29, 2012 9:45:27 GMT -5
|
|
deziloooooo
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 16:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 10,723
|
Post by deziloooooo on Oct 29, 2012 9:53:30 GMT -5
As I skimmed by I see on this thread..5 out of the last 6 posts are all by the same person..not bothering to wait to see if any answer previous posts or are just ignoring which seems to me a effort to just bump the thread up and keep it up front as a sort of ever running thread of the posters feelings on the topic... While not going to go bother to check the C of C, I have to wonder , is this obvious bumping of threads for the edification of ones own political or any specific wants and desires of a single or even a few of like minded posters , the purpose of this Proboad site ?? Is it perfect ok by most posters who do read and post here...I can see and understand a occasional bump to a thread..possible a better explanation of..something really new has come regarding the original premise of the thread ..but such obvious bumping by one particular poster on the same topic..?? This is the Politics and the markets board. If we are not going to be allowed to discuss the individal sate elections, and the fact mods keep combining similar threads, Moonbeam might as well kill all political discussion and dismantle the P&M board right now. THIS is not bumping a thread. It is an ongoing discussion of the election process which goes on for more than two days, the usual attention span of a typical thread message post to message boards. We are an exception, where posters do care, pay attention, and have a longterm perspective of the election process. That and the fact, PBP and I are correct in our perspective of the election outcome. I was seriously chastised by moderator so my perception of "Bumping " being against what ever...that was wrong...[Yep it is bumping Value but no biggie as I found out} so bump away...I believe I will be doing it in the future now too at times..especially when some of my well versed ideas and thoughts don't get the respect from the readers that I feel is warranted..in other words , no interest as the thread plummets like a load of cement in free fall to the bottom of these threads..[just kidding].. ;D "That and the fact, PBP and I are correct in our perspective of the election outcome."..Dream on my boy, dream on....
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 29, 2012 9:54:57 GMT -5
Mitt Romney’s super PAC, Restore our Future, is launching an 11th-hour ad blitz in Pennsylvania, POLITICO has learned. ROF is going up Tuesday with a $2.1 million ad buy across every Pennsylvania market, including pricey Philadelphia. The group will air a spot, “New Normal,” that lashes President Obama on the economy and is already up in other parts of the country.
The late push for Pennsylvania comes as some internal GOP polling has shown the always-elusive Keystone State to be within a few points. But other public polling, including a survey released over the weekend by the Philadelphia Inquirer, shows Obama enjoying a lead outside the margin. Romney’s campaign is not airing ads in Pennsylvania and the candidate himself has not been to the state recently. Paul Ryan recently held a rally at a hangar outside Pittsburgh, but that was partly intended for Ohio consumption. But with Romney closing the gap nationally with Obama, money has been flooding into the GOP super PACs. The conservative group Americans for Job Security went up with a TV buy in Philadelphia over the weekend. So groups like ROF have a bit more of a luxury to try to broaden the political map.
|
|
usaone
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 9:10:23 GMT -5
Posts: 3,429
|
Post by usaone on Oct 29, 2012 10:00:39 GMT -5
Rasmussen lean Republican by about 2 points and every other poll has Obama up by as many as 4 points.
|
|
cme1201
Junior Associate
Tennis Elbow, Jock Itch, and Athletes Foot, every man has a sports life!
Joined: Apr 6, 2011 13:55:07 GMT -5
Posts: 5,503
|
Post by cme1201 on Oct 29, 2012 10:04:24 GMT -5
Message deleted by cme1201.
|
|
usaone
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 9:10:23 GMT -5
Posts: 3,429
|
Post by usaone on Oct 29, 2012 10:18:59 GMT -5
Mitt Romney’s super PAC, Restore our Future, is launching an 11th-hour ad blitz in Pennsylvania, POLITICO has learned. ROF is going up Tuesday with a $2.1 million ad buy across every Pennsylvania market, including pricey Philadelphia. The group will air a spot, “New Normal,” that lashes President Obama on the economy and is already up in other parts of the country. The late push for Pennsylvania comes as some internal GOP polling has shown the always-elusive Keystone State to be within a few points. But other public polling, including a survey released over the weekend by the Philadelphia Inquirer, shows Obama enjoying a lead outside the margin. Romney’s campaign is not airing ads in Pennsylvania and the candidate himself has not been to the state recently. Paul Ryan recently held a rally at a hangar outside Pittsburgh, but that was partly intended for Ohio consumption. But with Romney closing the gap nationally with Obama, money has been flooding into the GOP super PACs. The conservative group Americans for Job Security went up with a TV buy in Philadelphia over the weekend. So groups like ROF have a bit more of a luxury to try to broaden the political map. I live in Pa. In 2008 McCain did the SAME exact thing the last week of the election. His internal polling showed a tight race. Poured money into PA and lost by 10 points. All time and money should be going into Ohio.
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 29, 2012 10:23:36 GMT -5
Oh, I think you can rest assured Mitt Romney knows how to walk and chew gum at the same time. Anyway, I'm not aware of Mitt Romney spending time and money in PA. This is a PAC. Ohio is shaping up nicely... RCP Average... Fluke? Or a break for Romney and an unstoppable trend?
|
|
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
Distinguished Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 11:59:07 GMT -5
Posts: 31,709
Favorite Drink: Sweetwater 420
|
Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 29, 2012 10:36:36 GMT -5
One week to go. Virginia is starting to lean Obama. One poll yesterday had Obama up 1 point in Florida. I still think Mitt wins Florida. Still 65 to 75% chance of an Obama win. You're just nuts. You're looking at the poll headlines, and not the polls. Obama has a HUGE problem with Independent voters-- HUGE. In 2008, Obama beat John McCain with Independents by 8 points. This year, he's down double digits- it's a slaughter. And the chance of Obama making up enough ground to matter this week? 0% www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/obamas-independent-problem/2012/10/28/9b519162-211f-11e2-8448-81b1ce7d6978_story.htmlIn short- just butter and jelly Obama now- he's toast.
|
|
b2r
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 10:35:25 GMT -5
Posts: 7,257
|
Post by b2r on Oct 29, 2012 12:05:30 GMT -5
Andrew Sullivan on 'This Week': If Romney Wins Virginia, Florida, the 'Confederacy' Is Back
|
|