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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2012 4:16:48 GMT -5
Intrade has Obama at 63%, Nate silver at 74%... And he'll be wrong this time. As will Intrade- which is rare. why do you keep saying that? isn't it easier to say that they MIGHT be wrong rather than they WILL be?
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2012 4:17:39 GMT -5
I touched on Ohio a few posts back, because to me it's the most interesting state- and it's the most fascinating case of the pollsters just simply making incorrect assumptions. they are not making false assumptions. you are.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2012 5:32:46 GMT -5
interestingly enough, RCP has it absolutely right in Ohio: www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.htmlthey show Obama +2.3%, which is pretty much exactly what 538 shows. it should be noted that this is an aggregation of about 20 polls, all of which are basically saying the same thing. yet the right wing blogosphere and Paul are saying that all of them are wrong, and that Romney is leading due to "sampling error". the fact is that pollsters are paid to analyze sampling, and that Paul is not, but i guess that we should dismiss the expert opinions of literally dozens of polling agencies for the opinion of one individual.
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Post by parker1b2 on Oct 28, 2012 8:06:02 GMT -5
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 28, 2012 8:13:55 GMT -5
interestingly enough, RCP has it absolutely right in Ohio: www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.htmlthey show Obama +2.3%, which is pretty much exactly what 538 shows. it should be noted that this is an aggregation of about 20 polls, all of which are basically saying the same thing. yet the right wing blogosphere and Paul are saying that all of them are wrong, and that Romney is leading due to "sampling error". the fact is that pollsters are paid to analyze sampling, and that Paul is not, but i guess that we should dismiss the expert opinions of literally dozens of polling agencies for the opinion of one individual. 1. Correct. The pollsters are assuming a repeat of Obama's 2008 performance, and I've laid out pretty well how that is NOT happening now. 2. The pollsters, who do in fact get paid to be right, will tighten it up this week. Now, to illustrate, they're already tightening up their methodology-- unless you actually believe Obama has gone from a 9.3% lead to a 2.3% in the last 13 days- if that's the case, and they are correct- Obama should be down about 9% by election day. But of course 9% was never true, and everyone knows it. This race started out tied, and now Romney has a slight edge, and most importantly-- momentum. Romney's insurmountable double-digit lead with independents, and the fact that traditionally the undecided vote breaks for the challenger by an average of 89%- and there are still 4% to 6% undecided will redound to Romney's benefit in 9 days. Subtract tens of thousands of people from the Democrat strongholds- and you're going to see Romney carries Ohio by a comfortable 2% to 4% margin.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 28, 2012 8:15:43 GMT -5
This is a great example of what I'm talking about. With their credibility on the line, you're starting to get the true picture in Ohio. Let's read that article, shall we? And an incumbent- a known quantity- going into an election tied, below 50%, and with 5% undecided...is screwed.
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Post by EVT1 on Oct 28, 2012 14:06:36 GMT -5
President Obama holds a narrow lead of 2 percentage points over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Reuters/Ipsos poll results released on Saturday news.msn.com/politics/poll-presidential-race-still-virtually-even-1 Obama has a 49 percent to 46 percent edge over Romney, marking a 1 point increase from Saturday but still within the daily online survey's 4 percentage-point credibility interval for likely voters. t.news.msn.com/politics/poll-obama-leads-romney-by-3-percentage-pointsBut adding the automatic +5 statisticians don't know shit PBP bonus Obama still loses. This race is going to be a photo finish and if I was Mitt my ass would be in overdrive- this bullshit about packing up in FL or VA is overconfidence and that rarely works out.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 28, 2012 14:06:50 GMT -5
And now the numbers are coming into focus, and let's just say they don't mimic the 2008 turnout. Let's look, shall we...
Now, the way I understand it from Rove this morning on Fox News Sunday is that Ohioans do have until Saturday to request an early /absentee ballot-- but that they're down 109,000 requests when compared to this point in the cycle in 2008, and that the total could end up down as many as 130,000 from 2008.
These voters could theoretically show up and vote but odds are better that trends have continued and Ohio has continued to lose population, and that the trend remains depopulation from Ohio's heavily Democrat Cuyahoga County- as has been the trend for a decade now.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 28, 2012 14:18:50 GMT -5
President Obama holds a narrow lead of 2 percentage points over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Reuters/Ipsos poll results released on Saturday news.msn.com/politics/poll-presidential-race-still-virtually-even-1 Obama has a 49 percent to 46 percent edge over Romney, marking a 1 point increase from Saturday but still within the daily online survey's 4 percentage-point credibility interval for likely voters. t.news.msn.com/politics/poll-obama-leads-romney-by-3-percentage-pointsBut adding the automatic +5 statisticians don't know shit PBP bonus Obama still loses. This race is going to be a photo finish and if I was Mitt my ass would be in overdrive- this bullshit about packing up in FL or VA is overconfidence and that rarely works out. Florida isn't over confidence on the part of Mitt Romney. Florida has been over since Rick Scott was elected Governor and Marco Rubio crushed it with 58% of the vote in a three way race. Yes, he was running against two Democrats (the RINO that couldn't beat him in the primary ran as an Independent, and is now a Democrat- real stable guy. Typical of the Democratic Party today) and normally, you could say the Democrat vote was split- and it was. But it wouldn't have mattered because 58% isn't easy to overcome. State-wide. Federal election. It's never been overconfidence on the part of the GOP- which has and continues to fight in Florida. What it has really been is WISHFUL THINKING on the part of Democrats that they ever had Florida. Over-confidence is sending old Uncle Joe to PA which shouldn't be in play, but is, and hoping Scranton's missing village idiot doesn't screw something up with 9 days to go. Over-confidence is counting Wisconsin for Obama. Over-confidence is daring to imagine you can viciously attack the coal industry and still win Virginia and Eastern Ohio. Over-confidence is basing your expectations on polls where the expectation that this is 2008 again and it's still Barrack The Magic Negro* against a senile old RINO that's never held a private sector job, never managed, and never really won anything but a stay at the Hanoi Hilton and a Senate Seat. Romney is an aggressive manager and organizer of manpower. I saw it- much to my chagrin- in the primaries, and now you're all going to see it. He's going to win, and win big. *The magical Negro is an archetype which was first applied to presidential candidate Obama by movie and culture critic, David Ehrenstein, in a Los Angeles Times op ed column of March 19, 2007. According to Ehrenstein, the magical Negro is a non threatening black hero in the popular media, usually the cinema, who was invented to ease feelings of white guilt over slavery and racial injustice. He is noble and devoid of sexual motives, and appears suddenly, out of nowhere, to magically solve the problems of white people.
Ehrenstein opined that "Obama's fame right now has little to do with his political record or what he's written in his two books, or even what he's actually said". Rather, Obama was a popular contender for the presidency because whites were projecting their "fantasies of curative black benevolence" on him.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_the_Magic_Negro
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 28, 2012 14:24:54 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2012 14:25:59 GMT -5
I can hardly wait until the election is over and done with and all the narcissistic neo-con nonsense and nastiness can come to an end. (Except it probably will NOT end, will it?)
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usaone
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Post by usaone on Oct 28, 2012 14:30:04 GMT -5
How do you explain Obama in this election cycle during the worst economy since the Great Depression doing so well??
Our ineptness???
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 28, 2012 14:31:00 GMT -5
..."a 10 point Democrat advantage has turned into a 1 point Republican advantage". Wow. It's almost like the polls are verifying precisely my opinion from the start in this thread. That these polls that are over-sampling Democrats because they're assuming Democrat +8 or Democrat +9-- are wrong.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 28, 2012 14:32:02 GMT -5
How do you explain Obama in this election cycle during the worst economy since the Great Depression doing so well?? Our ineptness??? The worst recovery ever?
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Post by deziloooooo on Oct 28, 2012 14:54:59 GMT -5
As I skimmed by I see on this thread..5 out of the last 6 posts are all by the same person..not bothering to wait to see if any answer previous posts or are just ignoring which seems to me a effort to just bump the thread up and keep it up front as a sort of ever running thread of the posters feelings on the topic...
While not going to go bother to check the C of C, I have to wonder , is this obvious bumping of threads for the edification of ones own political or any specific wants and desires of a single or even a few of like minded posters , the purpose of this Proboad site ?? Is it perfect ok by most posters who do read and post here...I can see and understand a occasional bump to a thread..possible a better explanation of..something really new has come regarding the original premise of the thread ..but such obvious bumping by one particular poster on the same topic..??
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 28, 2012 14:56:47 GMT -5
If this were against the CoC, or the ToS, Dezi, something would have been said, or done.
Speak to the subject of the thread, not about the poster(s). I'm not going to tell you again.
mmhmm, P&M Moderator
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2012 15:18:37 GMT -5
How do you explain Obama in this election cycle during the worst economy since the Great Depression doing so well?? Our ineptness??? The worst recovery ever? again, you are getting the facts wrong. push reset and try again. this is the second worst downturn of the last century, and the second worst recovery. to me that seems reasonable. but i guess to some people, the second worst downturn should result in the best recovery in the last century, or something like that.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2012 15:23:58 GMT -5
..."a 10 point Democrat advantage has turned into a 1 point Republican advantage". Wow. It's almost like the polls are verifying precisely my opinion from the start in this thread. That these polls that are over-sampling Democrats because they're assuming Democrat +8 or Democrat +9-- are wrong. no. they aren't. the surveys show that more people are identifying or likely to vote Democrat this year than 2010. we can argue about how large that difference is, but in truth, it will vary from state to state. in the case of Ohio, Obama's rescue of the auto industry plays very well, as there are something like 150,000 jobs associated with that industry in the state. Romney pretty much stated he wanted to liquidate the industry (you can parse his comments any way you like), Obama wanted to save it at any cost. i can find faults with both positions. but when it is MY job i am voting for the guy who fought for it.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2012 15:27:47 GMT -5
interestingly enough, RCP has it absolutely right in Ohio: www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.htmlthey show Obama +2.3%, which is pretty much exactly what 538 shows. it should be noted that this is an aggregation of about 20 polls, all of which are basically saying the same thing. yet the right wing blogosphere and Paul are saying that all of them are wrong, and that Romney is leading due to "sampling error". the fact is that pollsters are paid to analyze sampling, and that Paul is not, but i guess that we should dismiss the expert opinions of literally dozens of polling agencies for the opinion of one individual. 1. Correct. The pollsters are assuming a repeat of Obama's 2008 performance, and I've laid out pretty well how that is NOT happening now. you keep saying that, but you have not offered a shred of evidence other than the polls themselves. and the polls are showing something that you don't believe, but is, in fact, taking place. i can understand that. in fact, i sympathize. i thought i was going to lose my mind in 2004. so, are you and other bias conspiracists going to quietly accept Obama's re-election in 10 days, or are you going to stage a coup?
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2012 15:30:34 GMT -5
if josh is right, it IS over. but he isn't right. edit: i would have a lot more faith in that analysis if jj recognized the really poor record of Gallup tracking polls, and the house bias of Rasmussen. he didn't even mention them.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2012 15:34:26 GMT -5
President Obama holds a narrow lead of 2 percentage points over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Reuters/Ipsos poll results released on Saturday news.msn.com/politics/poll-presidential-race-still-virtually-even-1 Obama has a 49 percent to 46 percent edge over Romney, marking a 1 point increase from Saturday but still within the daily online survey's 4 percentage-point credibility interval for likely voters. t.news.msn.com/politics/poll-obama-leads-romney-by-3-percentage-pointsBut adding the automatic +5 statisticians don't know shit PBP bonus Obama still loses. This race is going to be a photo finish and if I was Mitt my ass would be in overdrive- this bullshit about packing up in FL or VA is overconfidence and that rarely works out. Florida isn't over confidence on the part of Mitt Romney. i agree with Paul, here. i think Romney is likely to win that state. but he really HAS to win it to have a chance. Obama doesn't.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 28, 2012 15:35:41 GMT -5
1. Correct. The pollsters are assuming a repeat of Obama's 2008 performance, and I've laid out pretty well how that is NOT happening now. you keep saying that, but you have not offered a shred of evidence other than the polls themselves. and the polls are showing something that you don't believe, but is, in fact, taking place. i can understand that. in fact, i sympathize. i thought i was going to lose my mind in 2004. so, are you and other bias conspiracists going to quietly accept Obama's re-election in 10 days, or are you going to stage a coup? Well, yeah- I guess you could say I haven't offered a shred of evidence-- if you don't count the mountain of evidence I've offered. You sound like Debbie Wasserman Schultz trying to say Romney never mentioned Israel in the last debate-- if you don't count the 14 times he mentioned Israel in the last debate.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 28, 2012 15:37:16 GMT -5
Florida isn't over confidence on the part of Mitt Romney. i agree with Paul, here. i think Romney is likely to win that state. but he really HAS to win it to have a chance. Obama doesn't. Mason-Dixon Polling Director: “Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida” Glad we agree- but I called Florida in June. When did you come around?
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 28, 2012 15:41:45 GMT -5
And btw- you're assuming Obama doesn't need to win Florida. And that might have been true a month ago. But today, Romney has paths to victory that don't demand he win Ohio. We have a situation now where Romney has locked up Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina- Ohio is tied, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all in play, and I predict a pretty big win- 2 points in Wisconsin for Romney there. He's pretty well sewn up New Hampshire. Then we head west and I don't think Iowa or Colorado are in question at all for Romney. You can argue Nevada, but I'd say that one is tied up, too.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2012 15:45:38 GMT -5
you keep saying that, but you have not offered a shred of evidence other than the polls themselves. and the polls are showing something that you don't believe, but is, in fact, taking place. i can understand that. in fact, i sympathize. i thought i was going to lose my mind in 2004. so, are you and other bias conspiracists going to quietly accept Obama's re-election in 10 days, or are you going to stage a coup? Well, yeah- I guess you could say I haven't offered a shred of evidence-- if you don't count the mountain of evidence I've offered. you have offered a mountain of opinion, and comparison. thanks for that. but what you have not offered is any evidence to support the claim you have been making that the pollsters are using a 2008 model for 2012. that is because they aren't doing that. if you would look into it, you would know that. but let's face another fact here, IF you and Josh are right, Romney is going to win by 4%, and it will be a watershed moment for polling in the US. things will change dramatically from this point forward, as a wide conspiracy will be uncovered, or total incompetence, if you are of that mind. or, the more likely outcome: the polls will be within 1%, the electoral vote will be very very close, but fall for Obama, and Romney will lose. will you go quietly in the latter event, or accuse everyone of election fraud?
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2012 15:46:37 GMT -5
i agree with Paul, here. i think Romney is likely to win that state. but he really HAS to win it to have a chance. Obama doesn't. Mason-Dixon Polling Director: “Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida” Glad we agree- but I called Florida in June. When did you come around? dude. you are calling ALL of the swing states for Romney. when WILL you come around?
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2012 15:48:04 GMT -5
And btw- you're assuming Obama doesn't need to win Florida. i am not assuming that. it is a fact.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 28, 2012 15:51:03 GMT -5
And btw- you're assuming Obama doesn't need to win Florida. And that might have been true a month ago. But today, Romney has paths to victory that don't demand he win Ohio. no, we don't. out of 21,000 possible permutations, the idea that Romney will win this election without winning Ohio comes up in ZERO. the reason why is that the demographics for Ohio are similar to those of the rest of the US. and because of that, the idea that Romney can win a state like, say, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania and NOT win Ohio is fatuous. he will either win both or win neither. you are aware that a Republican has NEVER won the WH without winning Ohio, right? NEVER.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 28, 2012 16:46:25 GMT -5
And btw- you're assuming Obama doesn't need to win Florida. And that might have been true a month ago. But today, Romney has paths to victory that don't demand he win Ohio. no, we don't. out of 21,000 possible permutations, the idea that Romney will win this election without winning Ohio comes up in ZERO. the reason why is that the demographics for Ohio are similar to those of the rest of the US. and because of that, the idea that Romney can win a state like, say, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania and NOT win Ohio is fatuous. he will either win both or win neither. you are aware that a Republican has NEVER won the WH without winning Ohio, right? NEVER. I agree with you- the demographics for Ohio are similar to those of the rest of the US. Which is why when you see 4 and 5 point national poll leads, and you combine it with the real-time numbers out of Ohio, you come up with a Romney win. Unless you're just engaged in wishful thinking.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 28, 2012 16:49:40 GMT -5
Mason-Dixon Polling Director: “Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida” Glad we agree- but I called Florida in June. When did you come around? dude. you are calling ALL of the swing states for Romney. when WILL you come around? The only swing state that's in any question in my mind is Nevada, and I think Romney will ultimately win there due to time zone issues. When Ohio and especially Wisconsin fall like dominoes early in the evening, that kills any chance for Obama in Colorado and Nevada.
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