billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 27, 2012 9:26:49 GMT -5
Paul--Obama seems to be leading in the polls in most of the tossup states. It would seem to be a stretch to say that Romney has the election locked up. Will you give us permission to doubt you if Obama wins? Part of our strategy is to lie to the posters when they call. Watching CNN this morning, they are salivationg at an Obama victory based on polls. They are trying to demoralize Republicans into thinking there is no sense showing up to vote on election day as it is already over. ... So it is the strategy of the RNC to have people lie to the pollsters when they call so that Obama's numbers are artificially high which gives the people on TV results they can use to demoralize Republicans?
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 27, 2012 9:31:47 GMT -5
We also have secret handshakes and eye roll signs.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 27, 2012 9:34:12 GMT -5
We also have secret handshakes and eye roll signs. Cool. That will certainly help Romney get elected better than the above stated strategy designed to help demoralize Republicans.
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Post by Opti on Oct 27, 2012 9:41:30 GMT -5
"When God hates someone on the East coast he sends Hurricans,When he hates someone in the Bible belt he sends tornadoes,,(less collateral damage.) " I thought that was all caused by global warming? Have no idea. I hope it isn't heading to NJ just because I've been upset reading P&M. I'll have to meditate more. Ommmmmmmm. There does seem to be some global climate shifts. But don't tell certain posters, OK?
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 27, 2012 10:29:08 GMT -5
Paul--Obama seems to be leading in the polls in most of the tossup states. It would seem to be a stretch to say that Romney has the election locked up. Will you give us permission to doubt you if Obama wins? I've already explained this ad naseum. First of all, he's not leading- he's in a dead heat in every single swing state, plus WI, MI, and PA. Second of all, it's not 2008. It's 2010 Part II. This is my theory of the election. It is predicated on a question that Rush Limbaugh finally caught up to me and asked yesterday on his radio show: In 2010, Democrats and Obama were repudiated by voters. So, what has changed since then? Other than Scott Walker being re-elected in a contentious recall do-over in Wisconsin by a larger margin than his original victory just 80 some odd days ago? Other than the fact he won by 5.8% in a race that showed a dead heat to a slight lead by Barrett (sound familiar?)? If you see a poll that shows Obama up 6% race is tied. If you show Obama up by 5%, that means he's losing. Back during the GOP primary debate in February, the Obama regime coordinated with their campaign- the mainstream press- to start this myth of a "war on women" with a bizzare, awkward question from out of left field on banning contraception. That carefully calculated move in which the media was complicit was designed to alienate women because the Obama campaign had long written off the white, suburban middle class voters (look it up). They felt if they could create a gender gap along with their base they would win. Romney has erased the gender gap, the Democrat base is smaller, and Obama's openly hostile move against the white suburban middle class has been worse for them than anticipated. Throw in Romney's huge double-digit lead with independents (one poll showed Romney up 35% with independents in Ohio) and it's over. So, I don't know what Poll you're looking at- and it really doesn't matter. Because in my theory of the election, which will prove to be correct, the Democrats think it's a dead heat to slightly come-from-behind but Romney has the momentum- and the Democrats are going to get Walkered on election day when they lose nationally by 5% to 8% of the vote, and by well over 320 electoral votes.
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deziloooooo
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Post by deziloooooo on Oct 27, 2012 10:44:45 GMT -5
Paul--Obama seems to be leading in the polls in most of the tossup states. It would seem to be a stretch to say that Romney has the election locked up. Will you give us permission to doubt you if Obama wins? I've already explained this ad naseum. First of all, he's not leading- he's in a dead heat in every single swing state, plus WI, MI, and PA. Second of all, it's not 2008. It's 2010 Part II. This is my theory of the election. It is predicated on a question that Rush Limbaugh finally caught up to me and asked yesterday on his radio show: In 2010, Democrats and Obama were repudiated by voters. So, what has changed since then? Other than Scott Walker being re-elected in a contentious recall do-over in Wisconsin by a larger margin than his original victory just 80 some odd days ago? Other than the fact he won by 5.8% in a race that showed a dead heat to a slight lead by Barrett (sound familiar?)? If you see a poll that shows Obama up 6% race is tied. If you show Obama up by 5%, that means he's losing. Back during the GOP primary debate in February, the Obama regime coordinated with their campaign- the mainstream press- to start this myth of a "war on women" with a bizzare, awkward question from out of left field on banning contraception. That carefully calculated move in which the media was complicit was designed to alienate women because the Obama campaign had long written off the white, suburban middle class voters (look it up). They felt if they could create a gender gap along with their base they would win. Romney has erased the gender gap, the Democrat base is smaller, and Obama's openly hostile move against the white suburban middle class has been worse for them than anticipated. Throw in Romney's huge double-digit lead with independents (one poll showed Romney up 35% with independents in Ohio) and it's over. So, I don't know what Poll you're looking at- and it really doesn't matter. Because in my theory of the election, which will prove to be correct, the Democrats think it's a dead heat to slightly come-from-behind but Romney has the momentum- and the Democrats are going to get Walkered on election day when they lose nationally by 5% to 8% of the vote, and by well over 320 electoral votes. How many times do you have to be told..because Paul says it's so..it really isn't.. "First of all, he's not leading- he's in a dead heat in every single swing state, plus WI, MI, and PA." Fact is.., it's a bit close but over all..he, Obama..is leading..getting closer to 270 every day..and while I am still up set with the "Sun Sentinel " endorsing the Governor..after a good sleep and thinking it over..a quick phone call and cancellation of..feeling much better and am moving on.. You actually listen to Rush??..That does explain a lot..and "If you see a poll that shows Obama up 6% race is tied. If you show Obama up by 5%, that means he's losing. " Rushes or your figuring? Whichever,..I'll take the 5%..your other prediction... "and the Democrats are going to get Walkered on election day when they lose nationally by 5% to 8% of the vote, and by well over 320 electoral votes." not happening and when it doesn't..then what is your story...the Dems cheated??
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EVT1
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Post by EVT1 on Oct 27, 2012 13:21:51 GMT -5
Other than Scott Walker being re-elected in a contentious recall do-over in Wisconsin by a larger margin than his original victory just 80 some odd days ago? Other than the fact he won by 5.8% in a race that showed a dead heat to a slight lead by Barrett (sound familiar?)? No it doesn't sound familiar at all- it sounds like you are making shit up as usual. I remember the polls were pretty much all showing Walker winning-for example: (Reuters) - Two public opinion polls released on Sunday show Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker with a lead of three and six percentage points two days before the election to recall him because of a new law reducing the power of public sector unions. Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm, said Walker was leading 50 percent to 47 percent over Democratic challenger Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett in its final survey. Angus Reid polling had Walker ahead 53 percent to 47 percent. www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/04/us-usa-wisconsin-recall-polls-idUSBRE85304120120604Your election theory sucks IMO- Palm Beach Polls is going to go down in flames so get that fork ready.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 27, 2012 14:49:55 GMT -5
Other than Scott Walker being re-elected in a contentious recall do-over in Wisconsin by a larger margin than his original victory just 80 some odd days ago? Other than the fact he won by 5.8% in a race that showed a dead heat to a slight lead by Barrett (sound familiar?)? No it doesn't sound familiar at all- it sounds like you are making shit up as usual. I remember the polls were pretty much all showing Walker winning-for example: (Reuters) - Two public opinion polls released on Sunday show Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker with a lead of three and six percentage points two days before the election to recall him because of a new law reducing the power of public sector unions. Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm, said Walker was leading 50 percent to 47 percent over Democratic challenger Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett in its final survey. Angus Reid polling had Walker ahead 53 percent to 47 percent. www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/04/us-usa-wisconsin-recall-polls-idUSBRE85304120120604Your election theory sucks IMO- Palm Beach Polls is going to go down in flames so get that fork ready. My theory of the election has not been credibly or convincingly rebutted by anyone here yet. I keep illustrating the Romney surge, the GOP voter enthusiasm edge, the national poll trend, the swing state poll lead, the GOP voter registration edge, the huge swings to the GOP generally and Romney specifically since 2008 and the end of the GOP primary earlier this year. The RCP average now has Romney up a full point- it's Romney +1 now. This is called a trend, but some of you just don't want to see it. And btw- I originally predicted Romney would lose. You'd think some of you would be happy I was wrong about something.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 27, 2012 15:06:28 GMT -5
And actually, all the experts predicted Walker would lose. You just showed polls with Walker having a lead of three and six percentage points. Well, I was actually wrong about his margin of victory. Walker won by nearly 7 points. You're practically making my point. Even the oddball poll you dredged up by whoever the hell Angus Reid Polling is that showed Walker up 6 was off by pretty darn close to a full point. In a traditionally Democrat, pro-union state where the whole issue was public employee union reform, right to work, and spending cuts. Democrats are f***ed. While I take issue with the claim he predicted it first, I basically agree: Why I Predict a Romney Landslide www.newsmax.com/WayneAllynRoot/Predict-Romney-Landslide-Vegas/2012/10/11/id/459626
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 27, 2012 15:22:03 GMT -5
man! i mean it is one thing to predict a Romney win. that is fairly daring at this stage. but to predict a Romney landslide is just nuts.
nuts.
and clearly, there are a lot of people that are doing it.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 27, 2012 15:59:05 GMT -5
I'm in business. When I get one email message, it's a fluke. Two emails on the same topic is a trend. Three, if they're negative, is a full-blown crisis. whyichangedmyvote.com/You think these people are the only ones?
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 27, 2012 16:03:09 GMT -5
I'm in business. When I get one email message, it's a fluke. Two emails on the same topic is a trend. Three, if they're negative, is a full-blown crisis. whyichangedmyvote.com/You think these people are the only ones? that site is lame. it doesn't allow for 3rd parties.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2012 16:07:00 GMT -5
i used to think you actually cared about the truth, Paul. but i can see right now that winning is your only standard. sad. Romney winning the election is the topic of this thread. If you want to start (another) thread on another topic- go ahead. A lot of us worked very hard to defeat Romney, but he won the primary; and now, much to my own surprise- he's going to win the election. Relax, dj- soon, you will accept the truth. I didn't want to believe he would win the primary- but he did. And one of the reasons I didn't want him to win the primary, is because I thought he couldn't win the election. But I was wrong about that, too. is it Paul? At this very minute? The thread title has been altered over a dozen times. Despite all the hundreds of times moderators insist that everyone stick to discussing the topic rather than the poster, this thread doggedly persists is flouting that convention; demonstratedly, the thread "creator" insists upon changing the thread title for a personal reason: making certain that the spotlight does NOT stay upon the propagandist's topic (whatever that may be at any given moment) and stays instead upon the propagandist.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 27, 2012 16:07:11 GMT -5
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deziloooooo
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Post by deziloooooo on Oct 27, 2012 16:18:01 GMT -5
I do so like your Poll....Senate too...Methink could live with all that ...if true.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 27, 2012 16:22:59 GMT -5
I do so like your Poll....Senate too...Methink could live with all that ...if true. i am putting the Senate at 9:1 odds that Democrats will control it. it is the elephant in the room- Romney will get absolutely none of his big plans done if elected. he is absolutely full of shit if he says otherwise.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 27, 2012 17:02:15 GMT -5
I do so like your Poll....Senate too...Methink could live with all that ...if true. i am putting the Senate at 9:1 odds that Democrats will control it. it is the elephant in the room- Romney will get absolutely none of his big plans done if elected. he is absolutely full of shit if he says otherwise. Romney by a landslide- worst case, Senate is tied up. However, after Romney - Ryan's unmistakable mandate, and so many ObamaCare Democrats already having been slaughtered in 2010, they will see the light, we'll repeal it and if that's the only thing Romney does in 8 years, we will be immeasurably better off.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 27, 2012 17:04:54 GMT -5
Romney winning the election is the topic of this thread. If you want to start (another) thread on another topic- go ahead. A lot of us worked very hard to defeat Romney, but he won the primary; and now, much to my own surprise- he's going to win the election. Relax, dj- soon, you will accept the truth. I didn't want to believe he would win the primary- but he did. And one of the reasons I didn't want him to win the primary, is because I thought he couldn't win the election. But I was wrong about that, too. is it Paul? At this very minute? The thread title has been altered over a dozen times. Despite all the hundreds of times moderators insist that everyone stick to discussing the topic rather than the poster, this thread doggedly persists is flouting that convention; demonstratedly, the thread "creator" insists upon changing the thread title for a personal reason: making certain that the spotlight does NOT stay upon the propagandist's topic (whatever that may be at any given moment) and stays instead upon the propagandist. The topic is Romney wins in November. As we are getting down to the wire, there have been updates to the same topic. However, I have picked up on the incessant whining of many, so I entitled it simply "Mittmentum" which is the topic of the thread, and that will stay. Updates will follow the ":" with the Mittmentum left unchanged.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 27, 2012 17:17:47 GMT -5
If Obama is beaten, and beaten badly as I expect he will be- even Democrats won't stand in the way of the Romney mandate.
I just want to set my Democrat friends up for the reality of election night. They're going to call Ohio before the polls close in Wisconsin, and then you can kiss Iowa, Nevada, and Colorado goodbye.
It's going to be an early one.
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usaone
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Post by usaone on Oct 27, 2012 17:25:13 GMT -5
Romney won't repeal Obama care. He was for it before Obama was.
It's a done deal. For better or worse.
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Post by deziloooooo on Oct 27, 2012 17:42:55 GMT -5
i am putting the Senate at 9:1 odds that Democrats will control it. it is the elephant in the room- Romney will get absolutely none of his big plans done if elected. he is absolutely full of shit if he says otherwise. That is both my hope for an Obama second term, and a fall back firewall if he is defeated. To give the right wing Republicans control of all three branches of government would set this country back 100 years. And in some ways it would try to bring us to the would be Caliphates of the Middle East. We do not want fundamentalist radicals controlling and stiffling our freedom. Period.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 27, 2012 19:34:56 GMT -5
Keep right on hope, hope, hope, hoping- but that's all you got is hope. The numbers tell a different story. President Obama's job approval rating plummeted 7 points in three days- and here's the problem with that for the left beyond just the obvious: Either it's a trend, or it bounces back up. If it bounces back up, then in all likelihood, the poll is not reliable and potentially meaningless. If it doesn't the poll is likely reliable, and does not bode well for Mr. Obama. cnsnews.com/news/article/gallup-obamas-job-approval-drops-7-points-3-daysAnd since it seems I have to explain this the MESSENGER may be CNS News, but the SOURCE is Gallup. Got that?
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 27, 2012 19:35:33 GMT -5
Romney won't repeal Obama care. He was for it before Obama was. It's a done deal. For better or worse. I am not fooled- I know he doesn't want to, and he never did. He may not have a choice.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 27, 2012 20:21:23 GMT -5
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Oct 27, 2012 20:23:24 GMT -5
No it doesn't sound familiar at all- it sounds like you are making shit up as usual. I remember the polls were pretty much all showing Walker winning-for example: (Reuters) - Two public opinion polls released on Sunday show Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker with a lead of three and six percentage points two days before the election to recall him because of a new law reducing the power of public sector unions. Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm, said Walker was leading 50 percent to 47 percent over Democratic challenger Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett in its final survey. Angus Reid polling had Walker ahead 53 percent to 47 percent. www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/04/us-usa-wisconsin-recall-polls-idUSBRE85304120120604Your election theory sucks IMO- Palm Beach Polls is going to go down in flames so get that fork ready. My theory of the election has not been credibly or convincingly rebutted by anyone here yet. I keep illustrating the Romney surge, the GOP voter enthusiasm edge, the national poll trend, the swing state poll lead, the GOP voter registration edge, the huge swings to the GOP generally and Romney specifically since 2008 and the end of the GOP primary earlier this year. The RCP average now has Romney up a full point- it's Romney +1 now. This is called a trend, but some of you just don't want to see it. And btw- I originally predicted Romney would lose. You'd think some of you would be happy I was wrong about something. Sounds like we're going to have to wait until Nov 6 to find out......
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 27, 2012 20:33:18 GMT -5
My theory of the election has not been credibly or convincingly rebutted by anyone here yet. I keep illustrating the Romney surge, the GOP voter enthusiasm edge, the national poll trend, the swing state poll lead, the GOP voter registration edge, the huge swings to the GOP generally and Romney specifically since 2008 and the end of the GOP primary earlier this year. The RCP average now has Romney up a full point- it's Romney +1 now. This is called a trend, but some of you just don't want to see it. And btw- I originally predicted Romney would lose. You'd think some of you would be happy I was wrong about something. Sounds like we're going to have to wait until Nov 6 to find out...... Well, waiting for all the formal voting and counting stuff is over and the electoral college does its thing, is an option. But you could just believe me now. Accept it. Make peace with it. Practice saying, "President-elect Mitt Romney" and "Vice President-elect Ryan" a few times before bed each night...
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 27, 2012 20:34:03 GMT -5
That Des Moines Register endorsement has to sting. Poor little Barry...going down like Carter.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2012 20:45:05 GMT -5
Intrade has Obama at 63%, Nate silver at 74%...
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Oct 27, 2012 21:54:44 GMT -5
Why? You're wrong quite a bit. You just don't like to discuss it.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 27, 2012 23:51:19 GMT -5
Intrade has Obama at 63%, Nate silver at 74%... And he'll be wrong this time. As will Intrade- which is rare. I touched on Ohio a few posts back, because to me it's the most interesting state- and it's the most fascinating case of the pollsters just simply making incorrect assumptions. In order to believe, for example, that Obama is up +4 in Ohio according to CNN/ORC poll, you would have to believe (again- I keep saying it) that Obama is going to at a minimum replicate his 2008 performance. But he is not, and he will not. To their credit at least this poll has a more realistic voter ID assumption- the split was Democrat +3 (Dem 35, Rep 32, Ind 33) which, while still a pretty bold assumption, is at least a departure from the fantasy land of most of the rest of the polls that assume Democrat + 8.5 to Democrat +9. But let's get back to that 2008 performance. In 2008, John McCain actually outperformed Barrack Obama on election day by a healthy margin. However, Barrack Obama already had so many early votes in the bag prior to election day-- in fact, the Ohio Democrat machine did a bang up job-- that it didn't matter. This CNN poll- the poll that shows the largest margin of any semi-credible poll for Obama has over-estimated early vote totals. In the poll 2/5 of Ohio likely voters have already cast their ballot, but the reality is that only about 1/5 have voted. County election offices say only 1/5 have voted. Both cannot be right. Extrapolating the CNN poll statewide, Obama leads 59-38 among the 1.4 million that voted early. Romney leads 51-44 among 4.4 million have yet to vote. The math is pretty straightforward where the overwhelming remaining voters support Romney and should overwhelm any early vote advantage CNN found. (See @adrian_Gray for credit on that last bit of math) Then there's this pollster that sees Ohio a bit more realistically- tied: www.lowellsun.com/todaysheadlines/ci_21851748/pollster-ohio-is-key#ixzz2AZ3WyHZCI'm not going to revisit the loss of 390,000 registered voters; but it is also interesting to note that Ohio is one of the states that has undergone a huge purge of the voter rolls ridding them of the dead, felons, and non-citizens- and non-resident students who incorrectly filled out voter registration forms (for example neglecting to put a dorm room # on the form). It hasn't been as high-profile as Florida, but estimates are that TEA Party groups have been successful in having somewhere in the neighborhood of 2,000 to 2,500 voter names purged mostly in heavily Democrat areas that have already lost the lion's share of those 390,000 lost registered voters. Let's not forget the money. In 2008, Obama was able to dominate Ohio in the airwaves outspending McCain nearly 3 to 1. In fact, Obama was the first Democrat in decades to win the Columbus media market which reaches 12 of Ohio's 88 counties. He has no such advantage this year, and is not likely to repeat the anomaly of his 2008 feat in the Columbus area. Romney is clearly winning back the suburbs (which I covered earlier in Michael Barone's take on the race- and there's already a link to it). The bottom line is, and I know math is boring, but Obama won Ohio by 262,244 votes in 2008. So, when you look at the Columbus media market, when you look at the suburbs, when you look at coal country, and when you look at GOP areas that are likely to outperform not only their losing 2008 numbers, but to outperform 2004 when Bush won Ohio by 118,775 votes. And Obama isn't even going to come close to his 2008 performance. In 2008, Obama won Independents in Ohio- Romney has the clear advantage this year among Independents. Obama's win in heavily populated areas such as Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Franklin County (Columbus), Lucas County (Toledo), Montgomery County (Dayton) and the traditionally Republican Hamilton County (Cincinnati) greatly contributed to his victory in the state. He's going to lose Hamilton County by double digits, and with a substantially pared down lead in the heavily Democrat areas-- in short, he's toast. And we also don't need to revisit the assumption that 407,000 white middle class voters that voted in 2008 for McCain are just going to sit this one out. My best guess is that Obama loses Ohio by about 3%.
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