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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 12:29:38 GMT -5
it is absolutely true. there are OTHER problems, too. some polling agencies have TIME LIMITS for polling. because of that, if they don't get an answer, they will keep robotcalling until they get one. what this does is OVERSAMPLE people who STAY AT HOME. also, without anyone screening (a live person), there is no way of telling whether the person answering the phone is even eligible to vote. Wait, are we analyzing polls, or not? But seriously- another caveat: if they DO call cell phones, they must call live. No robo-dialing which means it's more expensive. precisely. and let's face facts: robotcalling is hella cheap. that is why you find that the firms that do it produce 3-4x the number of polls of the firms that don't do it.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 12:30:40 GMT -5
So the pollsters are all Democratic operatives? Most, are. Yes. In general, pollsters are arms of the media which is just the propaganda wing of the Democratic Party. most pollsters have about a 1% Democratic bias. there are a few that have almost no bias at all. Rasmussen has a 3.9% GOP bias.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 12:32:51 GMT -5
again- do you know WHY the oversampling argument is totally bogus, Paul?
let me ask you this: how does "oversampling" take place? in other words, how did PPP get 9% more Democrats in their sample than Republicans? do you know? it is a really really really simple question, and it has a really really really simple answer, but i am guessing you think the answer is something like this:
"they screen for Democrats, and adjust the sampling to fit their models", and that answer is totally wrong.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 12:34:04 GMT -5
What makes you write that dj? it is a fact. i have spent some time studying "house effect" and how it impacts final results. but keep in mind that this "bias" is well within sampling error. it is not really that significant. it is actually less than 1%, but i rounded up.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 12:41:18 GMT -5
So dj do you attribute the bias to their methodology or to their personal politics? i don't think personal politics come into play at all for ANY polling firm. it is all about methodology. now, if you are asking if personal politics affects methodology, that is a trickier question.And I guess one could ask the same question about Rasmusson. i wouldn't do that. Rasmussen's problems are really easy to analyze, and it is almost 100% due to methodology. what is puzzling, in their case, is that they have been widely criticized for their methodology, which has produced really bad results on numerous occasions, and yet they basically plug their ears and go "blah blah blah". it is really a strange attitude for a poller to take when you approach them with a list of things they are doing wrong, and you can show them why they are getting bad results because of it, and they refuse to change- but that is what is going on with Ras. the industry opinion is that they are unwilling to meet the additional cost to put some very minor tweaks in their methodology. actually, it is even stranger than that- because there are other firms that do robocalling that have FAR better results than Ras. so it is not just the robotcalling that does it, but their bizarre fixation on speed polling.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 13:51:26 GMT -5
again- do you know WHY the oversampling argument is totally bogus, Paul? let me ask you this: how does "oversampling" take place? in other words, how did PPP get 9% more Democrats in their sample than Republicans? do you know? it is a really really really simple question, and it has a really really really simple answer, but i am guessing you think the answer is something like this: "they screen for Democrats, and adjust the sampling to fit their models", and that answer is totally wrong. I do know the answer. Virtually every poll of a presidential election assumes the turnout will be the same as in the last presidential election. I explained this in my analysis of why Romney is going to win and few will see it coming. My theory of the election is also really, really, really simple: 1. 2012 is a continuation of the 2010 national repudiation of Obama that gave the GOP not just 6 US Senate seats, and 62 House Seats, but also just shy of 700 state legislative seats- including giving the NY State Senate to the GOP for the first time in damn near ever. 2. 2008 was a historic anomaly for Obama and the Democrats. It had more to do with the emotion of voting for the first black president. Put simply, if any other candidate from Chicago whose resume was so thin, and who was not black had been running, the election would have been much, much closer; and that hypothetical candidate would have lost. 3. Obama has a record now. He's no longer "historic" (black- it's not gonna matter this time). He's no longer a blank canvas. And currently 62% want Obama, if he is re-elected, to massively change course. Well, unless you're a fucking imbecile, you're not going to vote for Obama hoping he'll change course. You're going to vote for a course change. 4. Turnout will resemble 2010- complete with a massive fall off of Democrat voter registration, and a huge enthusiasm gap between that redounds to Romney's benefit. 5. Obama is likable, he is polling better in some instances, but he is polling lower on every major issue; including the issue of issues- the economy. And he's down 9% on the perception of his handling (bungling) of Libya. See you at the debate tonight. Well, no I won't. I'll be watching the BEARS game. But I'll watch it at some point.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 13:52:36 GMT -5
There are no problems with Rasmussen's results. So, I guess we're back to your point- you can wrangle about the methodology, but when you get down to it- Rasmussen is right.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2012 13:57:54 GMT -5
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 22, 2012 14:05:46 GMT -5
Romney knows they have already won the election, and is working on building his re-election campaign funds for 2016
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 14:06:07 GMT -5
Don't f*** with a VC. That's what it means.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 14:11:06 GMT -5
Don't f*** with a VC. That's what it means. honestly? this is one of the main reasons i want Romney defeated. to prove that these fuckers don't rule the world.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 14:13:00 GMT -5
again- do you know WHY the oversampling argument is totally bogus, Paul? let me ask you this: how does "oversampling" take place? in other words, how did PPP get 9% more Democrats in their sample than Republicans? do you know? it is a really really really simple question, and it has a really really really simple answer, but i am guessing you think the answer is something like this: "they screen for Democrats, and adjust the sampling to fit their models", and that answer is totally wrong. I do know the answer. Virtually every poll of a presidential election assumes the turnout will be the same as in the last presidential election. wrong. the reason is really really really simple. party identification is part of the sample. there is no conspiracy, unless Republicans are saying "Democrat" when asked for their party affiliation during surveys.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 14:15:38 GMT -5
BOOM! You'll recall Suffolk was the outfit that pulled out of Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina because there was no way Obama could win those states. Will they call Ohio this week? They might. livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/suffolk-poll-obama-romney-tied-in-ohioQuinnipiac / CBS still hasn't called Florida, North Carolina, or Virginia- even as Obama quietly concedes these states.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 14:16:37 GMT -5
I do know the answer. Virtually every poll of a presidential election assumes the turnout will be the same as in the last presidential election. wrong. the reason is really really really simple. party identification is part of the sample. there is no conspiracy, unless Republicans are saying "Democrat" when asked for their party affiliation during surveys. Party ID is part of the sample. Then they weight the results against the last presidential election.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 14:17:48 GMT -5
There are no problems with Rasmussen's results. there are actually serious and well documented troubles. do you want me to post the analysis again, or are you just going to ignore it again?So, I guess we're back to your point- you can wrangle about the methodology, but when you get down to it- Rasmussen is right. yes, they are "right" by about 3.9%, which makes them the most inaccurate of all popularly cited pollsters. some sites have actually taken the additional step of ELIMINATING Rasmussen from their surveys. again, if you want to read it, i will post it. but i have already posted it at least three times, and you obviously have NOT read it. if you would rather stay in denial, just let me know.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 14:18:58 GMT -5
wrong. the reason is really really really simple. party identification is part of the sample. there is no conspiracy, unless Republicans are saying "Democrat" when asked for their party affiliation during surveys. Party ID is part of the sample. Then they weight the results against the last presidential election. no, they don't. they allow the sample to drift with other survey variables. the methodology includes the fact that party identification is a variable that changes over time- it is absolutely NOT a fixed target. you have made this claim over and over again Paul, but it is not true. i can post a study on this, as well, if you wish.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 14:39:09 GMT -5
Party ID is part of the sample. Then they weight the results against the last presidential election. no, they don't. they allow the sample to drift with other survey variables. the methodology includes the fact that party identification is a variable that changes over time. you have made this claim over and over again Paul, but it is not true. i can post a study on this, as well, if you wish. You can post a study all day long, but I just told you how the CBS poll weighted their poll several posts ago. I have a simple yes or no question for you: Did the poll showing Obama +5 in Ohio weight their poll with a Party ID of D +9 — CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac? Yes. Does that exceed the actual voter turnout in the last presidential election in 2008 of +8? Yes. What is the explanation of that? What possible "drift" could they have detected?
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 22, 2012 15:39:50 GMT -5
This race is over. Romney is rolling over everything. There is no stopping this juggarnaut.
By the way, where did the leak come from this morning about Iran coming to the discussion table 12 hours before the foreign affairs debate? This administration is soooooo transparent. And officially worried about re-election
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 22, 2012 16:13:38 GMT -5
Paul, any chance you will be at the debate tonight? Right down the street from you
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Post by Driftr on Oct 22, 2012 16:31:27 GMT -5
Paul, any chance you will be at the debate tonight? Right down the street from you I think he already was and Romney won.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 16:37:29 GMT -5
Don't f*** with a VC. That's what it means. honestly? this is one of the main reasons i want Romney defeated. to prove that these fuckers don't rule the world. Yeah, because it's sooooo much better with the Harvard faculty lounge running the show... The reason I don't want either of these two is a little more substantive.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 16:38:37 GMT -5
Paul, any chance you will be at the debate tonight? Right down the street from you I'm up in Chitown where I will be until the Holidays. And I'm recording the debate because there's an important event tonight. THE BEARS GAME!
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Post by weltschmerz on Oct 22, 2012 16:43:25 GMT -5
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 16:45:25 GMT -5
Paul, any chance you will be at the debate tonight? Right down the street from you I think he already was and Romney won. Yeah- my name is Paul, not Jim Messina
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Post by Driftr on Oct 22, 2012 16:55:58 GMT -5
Paul, any chance you will be at the debate tonight? Right down the street from you I'm up in Chitown where I will be until the Holidays. And I'm recording the debate because there's an important event tonight. THE BEARS GAME! You & VB should meet up for a beer.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 16:58:16 GMT -5
The answer is simple- Romney isn't going to spend money he doesn't believe he needs to spend. I like Romney's VC background. I also know why people hate VC's- because people naturally hate being owned, and when you enter into an agreement with a VC, you are admitting you can't make it on your own, and you need the VC. The VC does NOT need you.
It's interesting to me how much this presidential race is rather like Romney's life experience as a VC.
I wonder how many times Romney sat across the desk from some business owner, who tried to give him the nonsense about how everything was going well, the plan was working, they just needed a little more time, and of course- more money. Business owners LOVE the money. They like the prospect of a cash infusion. They do not like the 'strings attached' and the accountability.
The best part about a Romney victory is that every federal department and every one of the myriad federal agencies are going to have to justify their existence-- for real. Because Romney is going to sit down, put his face in the books for four years and straighten this mess out. In the process, he's going to do a lot of crap that annoys the hell out of me, he's going to compromise on things he thinks don't matter much- though, they do. But for the most part, we're going to come to his re-election campaign with deficits in the $250 to $350 billion dollar a year range (adjusted for inflation), higher inflation, higher interest rates, but lower unemployment, lower taxes, and better positioned to take on the big challenges- like the mandatory re-design of government that nobody in either party wants to talk about...
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Oct 22, 2012 17:00:35 GMT -5
What does "VC" stand for?
Venture capitalist?
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 17:01:00 GMT -5
I'm up in Chitown where I will be until the Holidays. And I'm recording the debate because there's an important event tonight. THE BEARS GAME! You & VB should meet up for a beer. I'm laying off the booze lately. It's a short story- while driving back from NC I developed DVT (a blood clot in my leg). My regimen now includes shots in the stomach twice a day and a carefully monitored dose of rat poison daily. They've said "moderate" consumption of alcohol "shouldn't" hurt, but I'm not taking any chances. I'm not trying to cut myself shaving and bleed to death.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 17:02:24 GMT -5
That being said, I'd be happy to meet for an unsweet Tea and a meal at Q-BBQ-- Naperville, or LaGrange. PM me.
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Post by Driftr on Oct 22, 2012 17:11:31 GMT -5
You & VB should meet up for a beer. I'm laying off the booze lately. It's a short story- while driving back from NC I developed DVT (a blood clot in my leg). My regimen now includes shots in the stomach twice a day and a carefully monitored dose of rat poison daily. They've said "moderate" consumption of alcohol "shouldn't" hurt, but I'm not taking any chances. I'm not trying to cut myself shaving and bleed to death. My bad. I read that wrong. Thought you were going too.
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