usaone
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Post by usaone on Oct 22, 2012 10:08:14 GMT -5
The problem now is Ohio and Mitts number 47% has not moved in months.
Obama's number has been bouncing around from 50% to 46% over the last few weeks. No one as of yet has been jumping on the Mitt bandwagon.
Gallop would be great news, except not one other poll agrees with it.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 10:14:52 GMT -5
The problem now is Ohio and Mitts number 47% has not moved in months. Obama's number has been bouncing around from 50% to 46% over the last few weeks. No one as of yet has been jumping on the Mitt bandwagon. Gallop would be great news, except not one other poll agrees with it. Rasmussen- the poll that called the last two elections within .5 has Romney up +2. The trend is moving for Romney, and while the pollsters are holding out as long as they can, and the media is highly investing (including Fox) in keeping it a horse race to the end, this election has been over for six months.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 10:21:12 GMT -5
Romney could now lose Ohio and win the election because all the swing states are breaking for Romney. It would be more contentious, but if Romney wins Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania; and it now looks like Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire are going for Romney-- there's your win. But in reality, if Ohio is within the margin of error, it goes for Mitt automatically.
Getting back to Rasmussen- on the 1st of this month, Obama was leading in the swing state poll by +6. The Obama lead was 51% to Romney's 45%. Romney now leads 49% to 46%. If you don't think a 9 point swing in 21 days is a big deal- it is a big deal. It's a trend that has been building for weeks now- and it isn't likely to reverse itself in time for Obama to win the election.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 11:07:33 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2012 11:13:35 GMT -5
Rasmussen has it waffling between Obama and Romney in the swing states all month long. It's going to go down to the wire. Will make for an exciting election night.
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EVT1
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Post by EVT1 on Oct 22, 2012 11:15:34 GMT -5
We get it PBP- Obama is boned in every state except CA and that's probably a toss-up. You can gloat all about it after the election or you are going to have to eat a massive amount of crow- bon appetit.
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TonyTiger
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Post by TonyTiger on Oct 22, 2012 11:21:37 GMT -5
The ONLY poll that REALLY matters.... coming to a facility near you on Tuesday, November 6, 2012... When the REAL 'Deciderers' have their say... ;D
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 11:25:26 GMT -5
NBC/WSJ poll tied at 47% Rassmusen, Romney by 2% Gallup, Romney by7% Anyway you cut it, President Obama is one and done. Yup. Same poll: 62% want MAJOR CHANGES in Obama's policies in the next four years. You're going to vote Obama for MAJOR CHANGES in Obama's policies? You'd have to be insane. Barry is TOAST.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 11:26:16 GMT -5
Rasmussen has it waffling between Obama and Romney in the swing states all month long. It's going to go down to the wire. Will make for an exciting election night. There's no fluctuation in the polls back and forth. There's a steady trend in every poll for Romney and away from the incumbent.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 11:31:07 GMT -5
Rasmussen has it waffling between Obama and Romney in the swing states all month long. It's going to go down to the wire. Will make for an exciting election night. There's no fluctuation in the polls back and forth. There's a steady trend in every poll for Romney and away from the incumbent. totally untrue. about half the polls show that, and the other half show the opposite. the truth is that there has been almost no movement since the second debate.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 11:39:31 GMT -5
I know some of you think I'm nuts- so let's examine one poll showing Obama with a +5 lead in Ohio.
Why do I think that Romney will win Ohio- and it's not going to be close?
The poll is absurdly flawed- as are most polls this year because they are relying on the unusual record-setting Democrat turnout of 2008- and then adding a point.
The actual turnout:
2004 –> R +5
2008 –> D +8
The weighting given Democrat over-performance over Republicans this year?
2012 Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll –> D +9
In the 2010 wave election- and remember, I am basing my predictions on the bet that 2012 is just 2010 continued. In 2010...
Republicans outperformed Democrats in Ohio by +1.
And there are 490,000 fewer registered Democrats in Ohio than in 2008. Most of them became independents.
Guess who has a substantial lead among independent voters?
Romney.
It's over.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 11:42:06 GMT -5
There's no fluctuation in the polls back and forth. There's a steady trend in every poll for Romney and away from the incumbent. totally untrue. about half the polls show that, and the other half show the opposite. the truth is that there has been almost no movement since the second debate. That's simply untrue, dj. All swing states are trending Romney-- and they have been since before the second debate. Obama is not taking back any ground. And when you look at my last post, and you see the convoluted machinations they had to go through to show Obama's drastically narrowing lead in Ohio still a lead- and you have the courage to accept the truth. It's all over the mainstream press now. Everything is trending Romney.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 11:43:09 GMT -5
I know some of you think I'm nuts- so let's examine one poll showing Obama with a +5 lead in Ohio.
Why do I think that Romney will win Ohio- and it's not going to be close?
The poll is absurdly flawed- as are most polls this year because they are relying on the unusual record-setting Democrat turnout of 2008- and then adding a point.
The actual turnout:
2004 –> R +5
2008 –> D +8
The weighting given Democrat over-performance over Republicans this year?
2012 Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll –> D +9
In the 2010 wave election- and remember, I am basing my predictions on the bet that 2012 is just 2010 continued. In 2010...
Republicans outperformed Democrats in Ohio by +1.
And there are 490,000 fewer registered Democrats in Ohio than in 2008. Most of them became independents.
Guess who has a substantial lead among independent voters?
Romney.
It's over.
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EVT1
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Post by EVT1 on Oct 22, 2012 11:53:31 GMT -5
I'll take that sabermetric guys opinion over your armchair calculations- buy hey make your predictions and if you are right maybe you can parlay that into Palm Beach Polls and get in the game next time. If you know anything you know there is a shitpile of money to be made in political prognostication or spewing vitriolic hot air- want to golf with Rush you better get cracking.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 11:57:36 GMT -5
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 11:58:34 GMT -5
I feel you all ought to commit. What do I get when I'm proven correct?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2012 11:59:43 GMT -5
I feel you all ought to commit. What do I get when I'm proven correct? lovely pearl necklaces from all.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 12:00:13 GMT -5
I feel you all ought to commit. What do I get when I'm proven correct? the satisfaction of knowing you are right. same as the rest of us.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 12:01:04 GMT -5
I know some of you think I'm nuts- so let's examine one poll showing Obama with a +5 lead in Ohio. no, let's not. this game of analyzing sampling is totally bogus. do you know why?
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 12:03:41 GMT -5
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 12:06:35 GMT -5
I know some of you think I'm nuts- so let's examine one poll showing Obama with a +5 lead in Ohio. no, let's not. this game of analyzing sampling is totally bogus. do you know why? It wasn't bogus when Obama was leading by 10 points in Ohio. Now, either you believe that Obama really had a 10 point lead two weeks ago, or you believe that Mitt Romney cut his lead in half in two weeks, or you have to admit that I was right: The pollsters tried to drive public opinion for several weeks, and now with their credibility on the line, they have to show things a bit closer.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 12:08:21 GMT -5
PPP has actually been a really accurate poller for the last 2-3 election cycles.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 12:11:20 GMT -5
PPP has actually been a really accurate poller for the last 2-3 election cycles. Rasmussen. They've been the most accurate. There's no real second place. It's been Rasmussen and all the rest for the last two presidential cycles.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 12:12:27 GMT -5
no, let's not. this game of analyzing sampling is totally bogus. do you know why? It wasn't bogus when Obama was leading by 10 points in Ohio. red herring. he never lead by 10%. he lead by 6%Now, either you believe that Obama really had a 10 point lead two weeks ago, or you believe that Mitt Romney cut his lead in half in two weeks, more than half. about 3.5%or you have to admit that I was right: The pollsters tried to drive public opinion for several weeks, and now with their credibility on the line, they have to show things a bit closer. there is no evidence that this is true. there is only one polling firm that has changed methodology this cycle, and that is Gallup. i should also point out that this is a very common suspicion, Paul. MANY people believe this. but there is simply no evidence that it is true.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 12:13:42 GMT -5
PPP has actually been a really accurate poller for the last 2-3 election cycles. Rasmussen. They've been the most accurate. false. Rasmussen has not been the most accurate for (3) election cycles. in fact, they are drifting, and are now a really poor polling service. i have posted an analysis on this several times. did you read it?There's no real second place. It's been Rasmussen and all the rest for the last two presidential cycles. false.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 22, 2012 12:14:54 GMT -5
I saw on a cable show this morning that some pollsters are still only calling landphones, and some are all robotic calls. Is this true? Sounds archaic, and probably garnering incorrect data
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 12:18:15 GMT -5
So the pollsters are all Democratic operatives? that is what he is claiming. it is rubbish. if pollsters don't produce accurate results, they are shoved to the margins.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 12:20:08 GMT -5
I saw on a cable show this morning that some pollsters are still only calling landphones, and some are all robotic calls. Is this true? Sounds archaic, and probably garnering incorrect data it is absolutely true. there are OTHER problems, too. some polling agencies have TIME LIMITS for polling. because of that, if they don't get an answer, they will keep robotcalling until they get one. what this does is OVERSAMPLE people who STAY AT HOME. also, without anyone screening (a live person), there is no way of telling whether the person answering the phone is even eligible to vote.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 12:21:32 GMT -5
So the pollsters are all Democratic operatives? Most, are. Yes. In general, pollsters are arms of the media which is just the propaganda wing of the Democratic Party.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 12:22:58 GMT -5
I saw on a cable show this morning that some pollsters are still only calling landphones, and some are all robotic calls. Is this true? Sounds archaic, and probably garnering incorrect data it is absolutely true. there are OTHER problems, too. some polling agencies have TIME LIMITS for polling. because of that, if they don't get an answer, they will keep robotcalling until they get one. what this does is OVERSAMPLE people who STAY AT HOME. also, without anyone screening (a live person), there is no way of telling whether the person answering the phone is even eligible to vote. Wait, are we analyzing polls, or not? But seriously- another caveat: if they DO call cell phones, they must call live. No robo-dialing which means it's more expensive.
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