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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2012 19:02:16 GMT -5
So much for the swing in the polls back to Barry. So much for the "tightening" of the race. says you.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2012 19:03:26 GMT -5
The fact that they aren't saying it isn't imploding is proof that it is imploding. You didn't read my response right. I said the fact that they have to deny reports that they're imploding is a pretty clear indication that they're in big trouble. who "had to" do this?
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2012 19:04:08 GMT -5
I never made that claim. That denial came from another poster. denial of what? do you even HAVE an argument?
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2012 19:05:19 GMT -5
and my mom says that she doesn't really care for Romney. sfw?
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2012 22:29:06 GMT -5
interesting demographic shift reported by Ipsos: While it may be hard to believe, an Ipsos poll shows that 5% of the people who voted for John McCain in 2008 switching to Obama this time. The switchers are predominantly white men, skewed older than the general population, and largely without college degrees. About 40% live in the mid- or South-Atlantic states. In interviews, some said that they supported McCain due to his military background, something Romney lacks. Others felt that Romney is out of touch with ordinary Americans. www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/21/us-usa-campaign-mccain-poll-idUSBRE89K02120121021
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Post by b2r on Oct 21, 2012 22:55:11 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 21, 2012 23:00:46 GMT -5
i liked McCain in 2000, but not 2008. he didn't inspire my vote then, but i liked him better than Romney. Romney reminded me of Bush and Kerry. he still does. he has some good qualities. i just don't think he has very good ideas.
edit: the article started off with "you may find it hard to believe", b2r. apparently you did. but they stand behind their data.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 21, 2012 23:57:09 GMT -5
PBP. there are going to be a heck of a lot of disappointed people here in November on Wednesday after the election. And there are a few of us, who will be sleeping like a baby the day after. Romney 303 Electoral votes.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 0:05:06 GMT -5
PBP. there are going to be a heck of a lot of disappointed people here in November on Wednesday after the election. And there are a few of us, who will be sleeping like a baby the day after. Romney 303 Electoral votes. well, at least you are sane. anything over 316 is, imo, totally unreasonable from Romney. i just don't see any way he can make that happen. i think there is about a 10% chance he gets over 300 EV. there is about a 25% chance he gets over 275 EV. and there is about a 50% chance he gets over 250 EV. this election currently looks a lot like 2004.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 22, 2012 0:08:40 GMT -5
PBP. there are going to be a heck of a lot of disappointed people here in November on Wednesday after the election. And there are a few of us, who will be sleeping like a baby the day after. Romney 303 Electoral votes. well, at least you are sane. anything over 316 is, imo, totally unreasonable from Romney. i just don't see any way he can make that happen. i think there is about a 10% chance he gets over 300 EV. there is about a 25% chance he gets over 275 EV. and there is about a 50% chance he gets over 250 EV. this election currently looks a lot like 2004. Agreed. But we disagree on this outcome. This time the incumbant does not get the victory. And I admit, Romney's number may be just under 300, but not over 310. My spread is 297,298 to 306 I do think he wins more votes than Bush in 2004.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 0:17:03 GMT -5
well, at least you are sane. anything over 316 is, imo, totally unreasonable from Romney. i just don't see any way he can make that happen. i think there is about a 10% chance he gets over 300 EV. there is about a 25% chance he gets over 275 EV. and there is about a 50% chance he gets over 250 EV. this election currently looks a lot like 2004. Agreed. But we disagree on this outcome. This time the incumbant does not get the victory. And I admit, Romney's number may be just under 300, but not over 310. My spread is 297,298 to 306 I do think he wins more votes than Bush in 2004. i think that is very doubtful, personally. but it certainly COULD happen. it is all about the range of possibility. is it POSSIBLE for Romney to get 303? certainly. that is possible. it is NOT, imo POSSIBLE for Romney to get 347, like some people are predicting. i like the idea of talking about range of possibility. Romney has had 191 locked up for a long time. Obama has had 217 locked up for a long time. the rest of the states have been in various states of "play". i sincerely don't believe that Romney is competitive in PA. that puts Obama up to 237. i think the rest could be reasonably expected to move to Romney under good tailwind conditions. however, i really don't think Romney has much of a chance in NV, IA, or WI either. that puts Obama at 259. this election really comes down to Ohio. i have been saying that for over six months. and i really don't think Romney is going to win it. but then again, i didn't think Bush would, either. edit: so, to put odds to it: i think that there is a 0% chance that Obama gets less than 217, and that Romney gets less than 191. i think there is a 10% chance that Obama gets less than 237. maybe less. that would put Romney at 301. i think there is about a 25% chance that Obama gets 259 or less. things have to go well for Romney, but it is quite possible. on the other end of the spectrum, i think that 281 is about a 50% prediction for Obama at this time. i think he has about a 25% chance of getting 303 or more. i think he has about a 10% chance of getting 332. i think there is a 0% chance that Obama gets more than he did last election, or that Romney gets over 316. so, that is the range. if we call anything under 4:1 unlikely, we have: Obama = 303-259, median 281 Romney = 235-279, median 257 i think Obama can be kinda mediocre, and still win. Romney will have to be spectacular to win. but he can do it.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 22, 2012 0:22:28 GMT -5
Agreed. But we disagree on this outcome. This time the incumbant does not get the victory. And I admit, Romney's number may be just under 300, but not over 310. My spread is 297,298 to 306 I do think he wins more votes than Bush in 2004. i think that is very doubtful, personally. but it certainly COULD happen. it is all about the range of possibility. is it POSSIBLE for Romney to get 303? certainly. that is possible. it is NOT, imo POSSIBLE for Romney to get 347, like some people are predicting. i like the idea of talking about range of possibility. Romney has had 191 locked up for a long time. Obama has had 217 locked up for a long time. the rest of the states have been in various states of "play". i sincerely don't believe that Romney is competitive in PA. that puts him up to 237. i think the rest could be reasonably expected to move to Romney under good tailwind conditions. however, i really don't think Romney has much of a chance in NV, IA, or WI either. that puts Obama at 259. this election really comes down to Ohio. i have been saying that for over six months. and i really don't think Romney is going to win it. but then again, i didn't think Bush would, either. 'I didn't think Bush would either". I remember that. And I also said he would, and pretty much hit the EC vote number on that election on the old board.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 0:34:25 GMT -5
i think that is very doubtful, personally. but it certainly COULD happen. it is all about the range of possibility. is it POSSIBLE for Romney to get 303? certainly. that is possible. it is NOT, imo POSSIBLE for Romney to get 347, like some people are predicting. i like the idea of talking about range of possibility. Romney has had 191 locked up for a long time. Obama has had 217 locked up for a long time. the rest of the states have been in various states of "play". i sincerely don't believe that Romney is competitive in PA. that puts him up to 237. i think the rest could be reasonably expected to move to Romney under good tailwind conditions. however, i really don't think Romney has much of a chance in NV, IA, or WI either. that puts Obama at 259. this election really comes down to Ohio. i have been saying that for over six months. and i really don't think Romney is going to win it. but then again, i didn't think Bush would, either. 'I didn't think Bush would either". I remember that. And I also said he would, and pretty much hit the EC vote number on that election on the old board. i was an amateur back then. and i had a lot more emotionally at stake in that election, because i positively LOATHED Bush. the fact that it skewed my judgment is to be expected. the RCP polling average had Bush +2.1%, and he won the state by 3.5%. all i had to do was watch the polls instead of what i "wished" for that election, and i would have been far less disappointed. i have nothing at stake in this election. if Romney wins, it will be bad for America, but it will be great for me, personally. so i don't really give a crap. i win/lose either way. i don't think it will be much better for America if Obama wins, but worse for me. this is really a fun election for me, because i really am just an observer. i already voted, so i am just sitting back and enjoying the spectacle.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 1:03:46 GMT -5
incidentally, i don't really think that the race is entirely over in Florida. i have said repeatedly that i don't think Obama will win there. i have probably said a couple of times that i don;t think he CAN, and that is not true. he needs things to break well for him there to win, but i give him about a 10% chance. no candidate has lead by more than 4% there since March. the current gap is far less than some of the polls indicate. my gut tells me it is less than 2%. that kind of a gap in a regional setting is entirely closable. but i agree with Paul that since the undecideds tend to break disproportionately for the challenger, this state is very nearly out of Obama's grasp at this point. but it is also true that i can't imagine a scenario where Romney wins without it.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 1:07:29 GMT -5
one final note: the real tossups are CO and VA. they are both too close to call. the winning candidate will probably take them both.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 22, 2012 7:46:03 GMT -5
Virginia will definitely go Romney.
Colorado, I honestly feel is still Obama's, at this point.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 22, 2012 7:48:06 GMT -5
'I didn't think Bush would either". I remember that. And I also said he would, and pretty much hit the EC vote number on that election on the old board. i was an amateur back then. and i had a lot more emotionally at stake in that election, because i positively LOATHED Bush. the fact that it skewed my judgment is to be expected. the RCP polling average had Bush +2.1%, and he won the state by 3.5%. all i had to do was watch the polls instead of what i "wished" for that election, and i would have been far less disappointed. i have nothing at stake in this election. if Romney wins, it will be bad for America, but it will be great for me, personally. so i don't really give a crap. i win/lose either way. i don't think it will be much better for America if Obama wins, but worse for me. this is really a fun election for me, because i really am just an observer. i already voted, so i am just sitting back and enjoying the spectacle. Amateur? I do remember great debates, and you were big into the polls back then too. And you were incorrect in the final assessment.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 22, 2012 7:50:26 GMT -5
Ohio will go red with Romney in November. I just cannot handle the fact Michigan will not. That is just so wrong........ Pennsylvania is still up for either candidate.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 22, 2012 8:02:54 GMT -5
Oohhhhh This just in! NBC POLL announced by Chuck Todd, daily rundown program Tied 47% to 47% The President at 47% Tie will go to the non-incumbant
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 22, 2012 8:05:09 GMT -5
The poll also showed the debates have given Romney a 3% edge in likely voters who have watched the debates.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 22, 2012 8:08:57 GMT -5
So, don't beleive it.... As you tell others here, I am not doing your homework for you. Prove me wrong, please. I back up threads I start and posts I make when it's stated as facts with a link. You don't. Yadda Yadda Yadda Just went to the Chris Mathews/MSNBC website. They are still just listing the weekend of October 13/14th shows. I will update when MSNBC gets off their ass and updates the site, but since they are in the tank for Obama it could be a cold day in Hades before they post it. Or maybe they will a day after the election after Obama loses
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 22, 2012 9:06:21 GMT -5
NBC/WSJ poll tied at 47% Rassmusen, Romney by 2% Gallup, Romney by7%
Anyway you cut it, President Obama is one and done.
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Post by Waffle on Oct 22, 2012 9:23:21 GMT -5
NBC/WSJ poll tied at 47% Rassmusen, Romney by 2% Gallup, Romney by7% Anyway you cut it, President Obama is one and done. IF the presidential election were decided on the popular vote, the president would be in trouble. But it isn't and the President is still ahead in most of the swing states. The swing states are the ones that matter. As long as maintains his lead in them - he will be reelected.
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 22, 2012 9:23:48 GMT -5
NBC/WSJ poll tied at 47% Rassmusen, Romney by 2% Gallup, Romney by7% Anyway you cut it, President Obama is one and done. IBD/TIPP Poll: President Obama holds a 5.7 point lead over Mitt Romney, 47.9 percent to 42.2 percent as of yesterday.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 10:00:59 GMT -5
Romney now leads in Colorado according to Rasmussen. I called Colorado in June.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 10:03:14 GMT -5
i was an amateur back then. and i had a lot more emotionally at stake in that election, because i positively LOATHED Bush. the fact that it skewed my judgment is to be expected. the RCP polling average had Bush +2.1%, and he won the state by 3.5%. all i had to do was watch the polls instead of what i "wished" for that election, and i would have been far less disappointed. i have nothing at stake in this election. if Romney wins, it will be bad for America, but it will be great for me, personally. so i don't really give a crap. i win/lose either way. i don't think it will be much better for America if Obama wins, but worse for me. this is really a fun election for me, because i really am just an observer. i already voted, so i am just sitting back and enjoying the spectacle. Amateur? I do remember great debates, and you were big into the polls back then too. maybe. but i didn't really get into politics until early 2003. when i joined the board, i was strident, but mostly about Bush and media issues. i didn't know much about polling at all, VB. if i used polls, i probably used them badly. just as Paul is using them badly now.And you were incorrect in the final assessment. one's judgement can become clouded when you have something at stake in the outcome.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 10:03:15 GMT -5
Now the lefties are going to cling to the IBD poll they eschewed just days ago?
I asked for an explanation of why IBD should be ignored then, and never got it. Maybe one of you will care to chime in on why we should believe it now?
In 2008, on this day, Obama had (GALLUP) the lead. He was at 50.6%
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 10:04:05 GMT -5
Now the lefties are going to cling to the IBD poll they eschewed just days ago? do they?I asked for an explanation of why IBD should be ignored then, and never got it. Maybe one of you will care to chime in on why we should believe it now? IBD was an outlier, and it still is.In 2008, on this day, Obama had (GALLUP) the lead. He was at 50.6% sfw
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2012 10:04:41 GMT -5
Romney now leads in Colorado according to Rasmussen. I called Colorado in June. i don't think Colorado is safe for Obama AT ALL.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 22, 2012 10:06:10 GMT -5
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