djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2012 20:52:33 GMT -5
summary: former Carter crony freaks out over Gallup poll. that just about says it all, doesn't it?
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EVT1
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Post by EVT1 on Oct 18, 2012 20:59:39 GMT -5
Nate Silver I will listen to- who was that Bob guy again?
Notwithstanding how easily PBP is shocked- what is the angle they are going for- that 4 dead was not optimal and more should have been dead? Is this the best they can do? How is this a 'shock gaffe'? Is Drudge a gossip rag or what?
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EVT1
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Post by EVT1 on Oct 18, 2012 21:01:28 GMT -5
So the guy at Fox called it- I guess it is over then.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2012 21:10:50 GMT -5
they are trying to talk us into a blind panic, overlooking the fact that most of us don't really see much difference between Romney and Obama, and couldn't care less about the outcome- let alone get hysterical about it.
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EVT1
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Post by EVT1 on Oct 18, 2012 21:31:59 GMT -5
Center right v Center left? I quit worrying once the loons were out of the primary- as long as he smartens up on foreign policy we will be just fine if he wins- though I don't think he is going to pull it off.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 22:07:00 GMT -5
Center right v Center left? I quit worrying once the loons were out of the primary- as long as he smartens up on foreign policy we will be just fine if he wins- though I don't think he is going to pull it off. Probably as late as two weeks ago, I would have agreed with you. This is about the same time I gave up on John McCain in 2008, though. And for the same reasons. It's over. It's still going to be a frustrating next several years. I have more respect for Romney now than I did, but I'm still not a fan- and I still doubt he's really serious about THE issue. And there's only one issue, because if we don't fix THE issue, all the rest really doesn't matter. He's got to repeal 100%, all the way gone, never to return again- the Obama Health Taxation law. It's got to go- and that means ALL of it. No reforming it, no tinkering. GONE. Once it's gone, we can consider needed reforms, but we have to get that thing all the way out of our way.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 22:07:47 GMT -5
So the guy at Fox called it- I guess it is over then. I think Mondale's campaign manager knows a blowout when he sees one.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 22:43:20 GMT -5
In the spirit of Public Television, tonight has been brought to you by the letter "O" and the number "16 trillion"...
!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2012 22:55:27 GMT -5
In the spirit of Public Television, tonight has been brought to you by the letter "O" and the number "16 trillion"... ! there have only been two presidents since WW2 to double the debt. Obama is not one of them.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2012 22:57:12 GMT -5
Center right v Center left? I quit worrying once the loons were out of the primary- as long as he smartens up on foreign policy we will be just fine if he wins- though I don't think he is going to pull it off. Probably as late as two weeks ago, I would have agreed with you. This is about the same time I gave up on John McCain in 2008, though. And for the same reasons. It's over. It's still going to be a frustrating next several years. I have more respect for Romney now than I did, but I'm still not a fan- and I still doubt he's really serious about THE issue. And there's only one issue, because if we don't fix THE issue, all the rest really doesn't matter. He's got to repeal 100%, all the way gone, never to return again- the Obama Health Taxation law. It's got to go- and that means ALL of it. No reforming it, no tinkering. GONE. compared to medicare part b, this thing is cheap. do you want that gone too? how about Afghanistan. do you want that gone? you see THE issue. i see many issues. most Americans do.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 23:07:35 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2012 23:08:41 GMT -5
I thought Cain was winning this one ?
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Jaguar
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Post by Jaguar on Oct 18, 2012 23:12:46 GMT -5
This thread is hilarious. Thanks for the diversion.
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usaone
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Post by usaone on Oct 18, 2012 23:20:11 GMT -5
Nate Silver now has Obama over 70% chance of winning....RealClear 66%....Intrade 67%
I don't see Romney pulling it off......
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 23:20:33 GMT -5
I thought Cain was winning this one ? Um, I think we've moved on from that short episode in which I quoted a blogger I know who felt Cain would or could win it. I did contribute to Cain's campaign after he hit the rough patch. So, what? You never wasted $500 on something? You can give to a worse cause.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 18, 2012 23:23:42 GMT -5
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b2r
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Post by b2r on Oct 18, 2012 23:30:42 GMT -5
In the spirit of Public Television, tonight has been brought to you by the letter "O" and the number "16 trillion"... !New Poll Shows Obama Leading.................From Behind!!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2012 23:43:54 GMT -5
intrade has lagged Nate Silver all the way through. they are probably watching the Gallup Poll, like you. i typically average the two, but tonight, i am feeling saucy since you are no longer reading my posts, and took Nate's number.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2012 23:51:51 GMT -5
Nate Silver now has Obama over 70% chance of winning....RealClear 66%....Intrade 67% I don't see Romney pulling it off...... like the congressional race and the senate race, these numbers have been trending badly for Republicans since April. in April, the GOP was predicted to take over the Senate. they are now predicted to lose control by 1:6 odds, and may even lose SEATS (unthinkable a few months ago). the generic congressional ballot has gone from GOP +4% in April to DEM +1% tonight. Romney has outperformed congress considerably, and that is to his credit- but he is really fighting an uphill battle.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 18, 2012 23:59:55 GMT -5
The momentum is such now that you could find Romney on the list of sex abusers released in the Massachusetts Boy Scout case and he'd still win. Sorry, Dems. It's over... but not in his home state. viddy that.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 19, 2012 0:00:53 GMT -5
I thought Cain was winning this one ? Um, I think we've moved on from that short episode in which I quoted a blogger I know who felt Cain would or could win it. same blogger that says Romney is coasting?
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 19, 2012 0:08:04 GMT -5
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 19, 2012 0:21:08 GMT -5
I think we need Bill to post one of Johnny Cash's ole hits
I see the train a comin......
Mitt's running like a runaway locomotive now. It is on automatic pilot to the victory on election night.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 19, 2012 0:24:49 GMT -5
Uh huh. By my count Obama has 201 likely electoral votes. Romney has 206 likely. The toss up states according to RCP's 5 poll average: Virginia (13) Obama leading by 0.8% Ohio (18) Obama by 2.4% Florida (29) Romney by 2.5% New Hampshire (4) Obama by 0.8% Wisconsin (10) Obama by 2% Michigan (16) Obama by 4.2% Pennsylvania (20) Obama by 5% Iowa (6) Obama by 2.3% Colorado (9) Romney by 0.7% Nevada (6) Obama by 3% Every one of those toss up states went Obama in 08. I see Romney leading in exactly two of those toss up states right now. If he won them both he'd have 244 electoral votes, which doesn't get it done. This race is anything but over right now. It's trending Romney though. A few weeks ago if you looked at the toss up states Romney was getting absolutely destroyed. Now it's close. National polls are meaningless though. We don't elect a president by popular vote. The only votes that matter are in the states listed above. Obama and Romney getting huge margins in their likely states are completely and totally meaningless. It's all about eeking out wins in the toss ups. This is not 2008 and John McCain running against Bush's record. Obama won Virginia by 12,000 votes last time. It will not happen this year, and this is going to hold true across middle America. Big Mo is at Romney's back right now
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 19, 2012 0:29:46 GMT -5
I think we need Bill to post one of Johnny Cash's ole hits I see the train a comin...... Mitt's running like a runaway locomotive now. It is on automatic pilot to the victory on election night. runaway locomotives usually end badly.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 19, 2012 0:42:56 GMT -5
Value- tell me truthfully- do you really LIKE Romney? or are you just having fun getting under the skin of the Obamabots?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 19, 2012 2:48:29 GMT -5
This is not 2008 and John McCain running against Bush's record. Obama won Virginia by 12,000 votes last time. huh? where did you get that? he won by 250,000 votes.
you must be thinking of NC. and yes, i think that is about right, he won by a very small margin indeed. and i would agree that he will lose that state and Indiana this year. but i think his odds of winning Virginia are way way better. worth a decent 1:1 bet.It will not happen this year, and this is going to hold true across middle America. Big Mo is at Romney's back right now i don't know what that means, but i don't think Romney has much at his back right now, other than his trail of falsehoods.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 19, 2012 6:49:18 GMT -5
I think we need Bill to post one of Johnny Cash's ole hits I see the train a comin...... Mitt's running like a runaway locomotive now. It is on automatic pilot to the victory on election night. VB, I thought this "train" song more appropriate for you. Hope you enjoy it.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2012 6:59:52 GMT -5
Nate Silver doesn't hold much weight in my opinion. He predicted the 2008 elections? Big deal, I could've done that. His liberal bias is working against him...he wrote for the dailykos for crying out loud.
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Post by cme1201 on Oct 19, 2012 7:21:43 GMT -5
Well if we are talking about trains nothing will beat
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