billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 19, 2012 7:45:40 GMT -5
Well if we are talking about trains nothing will beat ... This one:
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workpublic
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Post by workpublic on Oct 19, 2012 8:05:06 GMT -5
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 19, 2012 8:08:10 GMT -5
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 19, 2012 8:10:20 GMT -5
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 19, 2012 8:13:30 GMT -5
By the way- that poll I posted from the Daily Kos was from the 16th.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 19, 2012 8:23:09 GMT -5
By the way- that poll I posted from the Daily Kos was from the 16th. Which means what to you?
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 19, 2012 8:30:25 GMT -5
By the way- that poll I posted from the Daily Kos was from the 16th. Which means what to you? Which means that Romney didn't have as big a lead as he will the next poll they post.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 19, 2012 9:11:02 GMT -5
Momentum is everything at this point. Hell, there are people out there right now, smelling a new sheriff in town, and are jumping on the winning bandwagon as we speak. The "undecided's" love a winner, and wait to pile on. It's over. Romney/Ryan in 2013
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 19, 2012 9:14:41 GMT -5
Momentum is everything at this point. Hell, there are people out there right now, smelling a new sheriff in town, and are jumping on the winning bandwagon as we speak. The "undecided's" love a winner, and wait to pile on. ... So you are saying that a larger margin of victory will be because of this bandwagon effect and not a mandate on policy?
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 19, 2012 9:18:16 GMT -5
Momentum is everything at this point. Hell, there are people out there right now, smelling a new sheriff in town, and are jumping on the winning bandwagon as we speak. The "undecided's" love a winner, and wait to pile on. ... So you are saying that a larger margin of victory will be because of this bandwagon effect and not a mandate on policy? I am not predicting a landslide, or large margin of victory. Let's go with 51 3/4% of total vote, 305, or 306 electoral votes for Romney today. And yes, everyone loves a winner, and goes with them. I would say 5% of Obama's vote came from this category in 2008
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 19, 2012 9:20:08 GMT -5
So you are saying that a larger margin of victory will be because of this bandwagon effect and not a mandate on policy? I am not predicting a landslide, or large margin of victory. Let's go with 51 3/4% of total vote, 305, or 306 electoral votes for Romney today. And yes, everyone loves a winner, and goes with them. I would say 5% of Obama's vote came from this category in 2008 So no policy endorsement from the electorate?
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 19, 2012 9:29:53 GMT -5
I am not predicting a landslide, or large margin of victory. Let's go with 51 3/4% of total vote, 305, or 306 electoral votes for Romney today. And yes, everyone loves a winner, and goes with them. I would say 5% of Obama's vote came from this category in 2008 So no policy endorsement from the electorate? Bills, let's be real here. the electorate never gets "policy endorsement" after the election results. Just ask the electorate what they got after the 2008 vote. No hope No change.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 19, 2012 9:32:53 GMT -5
So no policy endorsement from the electorate? Bills, let's be real here. the electorate never gets "policy endorsement" after the election results. Just ask the electorate what they got after the 2008 vote. No hope No change. I am just saying that if you are going to use the bandwagon argument now, you can't use mandate of the people later. Well you "can" but you know what I mean.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 19, 2012 9:39:50 GMT -5
Bills, let's be real here. the electorate never gets "policy endorsement" after the election results. Just ask the electorate what they got after the 2008 vote. No hope No change. I am just saying that if you are going to use the bandwagon argument now, you can't use mandate of the people later. Well you "can" but you know what I mean. Understood. Romney will have his hands full with the new Congress.Tea Party Will be restless, looking for some action. This can be a good thing, but we do need some accommodation with the Dems. Romney will have to show the olive branch to the Dems. I believe this is the difference between Barack and Mitt.Mitt will, and Barack never did. Somehow, Mitt has to get the Republicans to understand there has to be give and take, similar to what Reagan did. Being the business person he is (or was) I think he can do it.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 19, 2012 9:43:43 GMT -5
I am just saying that if you are going to use the bandwagon argument now, you can't use mandate of the people later. Well you "can" but you know what I mean. Understood. Romney will have his hands full with the new Congress.Tea Party Will be restless, looking for some action. This can be a good thing, but we do need some accommodation with the Dems. Romney will have to show the olive branch to the Dems. I believe this is the difference between Barack and Mitt.Mitt will, and Barack never did. Somehow, Mitt has to get the Republicans to understand there has to be give and take, similar to what Reagan did. Being the business person he is (or was) I think he can do it. My only real concern with a Romney Administration is that Romney throws the Tea Party a Supreme Court nominee "bone". Presidents come and go but Supreme Court Justices are like herpes.
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b2r
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Post by b2r on Oct 19, 2012 10:08:47 GMT -5
Talk about your meltdowns. This is what passes for news on MSNBC? "Tagg Wishes He Could Punch the President"..."Punch Me You PUNK" Lawrence O'Donnell?
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 19, 2012 10:18:45 GMT -5
Talk about your meltdowns. This is what passes for news on MSNBC? "Tagg Wishes He Could Punch the President"..."Punch Me You PUNK" Lawrence O'Donnell? I watched this last night. It is weird, isn't it.
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cme1201
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Post by cme1201 on Oct 19, 2012 10:49:43 GMT -5
all I have to say is
What the F***(*)*Y*Y*(W&TGCBIT
I mean really? Even ABC defended the jovial nature of Tagg's comment. The best he could do is pick on his name?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2012 14:51:37 GMT -5
So, Obama is positive again on Real Clear's national agregate, albeit by .1, but he's up, even though Gallup is still +6 for Romney... so that gives you an indication of the field...
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 19, 2012 16:20:16 GMT -5
Yeah- I just saw the Lawrence O'Donnell meltdown a few minutes ago. Since I started listening to Rush in 1993, he has been saying liberals, when they're out of power, are hilarious. I guess that applies to the waning power of the old media...wow, that was a bizarre outburst
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 19, 2012 16:25:03 GMT -5
You're damn right we will be.
1. REPEAL ***COMPETELY*** ObamaCare 2. Tax Reform- lower taxes and a simpler tax code 3. Get control of spending. Romney MUST NOT put his name to a deficit larger than $500 billion. He has to cut the deficit in half NOW. It cannot wait.
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Sum Dum Gai
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Post by Sum Dum Gai on Oct 19, 2012 16:36:36 GMT -5
You're watching the same guy I'm watching right? Wants to increase the size of our military by over 100k troops. Wants to increase defense spending. Wants to cut tax rates, close loopholes, but not the loopholes that the middle class uses. I don't think he's mentioned one single actual spending cut yet. He's sounding a lot like Bush actually. Plenty of talk about what he wants to do, and no talk at all about he's planning to pay for any of it. If you think that guy is cutting $500 billion from his first year's budget you have a lot more faith than I do.
I would guess the budget deficit under Romney will be almost identical to what we'd have under an Obama second term. The only differences will be in who they're giving all that money away too.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 19, 2012 16:47:27 GMT -5
OK, so you've still got Obama stuck at 45% even if you are able to put Romney at 51%. Obama will never see 50% in the Gallup poll. At this stage of the race, to rally a 3 point gain would be downright miraculous. The race is over. When you look at the internals, it's far worse for Obama than any poll would indicate. The reason is simple: my 2010 theory is showing in the internals. This race is has broken and will continue to break for Romney just like every TEA Party race has broken since 2009. You can poll people all you want, but what you cannot measure is the ground game. You can detect a certain level of enthusiasm, but you can't judge the effect of champing at the bit voters using a 1,000 phone call arbitrarily weighted sample. Every major voting bloc is shifting from Obama- Obama is losing support from women voters as Romney closes the gender gap, Obama is losing Catholic voters, Obama is losing Jewish voters, Obama is losing Hispanic Voters. The last one is big, because: www.redstate.com/jamesm/2012/10/13/alert-swing-state-polls-show-large-portion-of-hispanic-voters-are-trending-away-from-obama/
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 19, 2012 16:49:58 GMT -5
You're watching the same guy I'm watching right? Wants to increase the size of our military by over 100k troops. Wants to increase defense spending. Wants to cut tax rates, close loopholes, but not the loopholes that the middle class uses. I don't think he's mentioned one single actual spending cut yet. He's sounding a lot like Bush actually. Plenty of talk about what he wants to do, and no talk at all about he's planning to pay for any of it. If you think that guy is cutting $500 billion from his first year's budget you have a lot more faith than I do. I would guess the budget deficit under Romney will be almost identical to what we'd have under an Obama second term. The only differences will be in who they're giving all that money away too. Just because he's going to win doesn't mean I'm behind him. I realize that dispatching Obama is not the end, but the beginning of a long, arduous battle for Americans against politicians in both parties. Fortunately, conservatives have the GOP by the short hairs right now, so we have a party we can hopefully compel to do some sensible things in spite of the fact that Romney and Ryan are fiscal moderates.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 19, 2012 17:14:33 GMT -5
Still keeping an eye on Intrade? Here- let me help you- since last night:
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2012 17:39:33 GMT -5
60% to 39% .... yep, its all sewed up
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 19, 2012 18:34:37 GMT -5
Still keeping an eye on Intrade? Here- let me help you- since last night: RCP Average 10/7 - 10/18 -- -- 47.1 47.0 Obama +0.1 Obama is back up 0.1%. keep in mind that without Gallup, the president is polling +1%. that is pretty much what the state polls are saying. it also agrees with the anticipated movement in the polls after the debates. it pays to doubt Paul.
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Sum Dum Gai
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Post by Sum Dum Gai on Oct 19, 2012 18:40:45 GMT -5
You don't even have to dismiss Gallup completely. Paul keeps quoting the likely voter poll from Gallup. They also release the numbers by registered voter, except in that one Romney's "lead" completely disappears. So, the real question is how accurate is Gallup when they remove more Obama supporters than Romney supporters to figure out the likely voter number. If you dig deeper into the numbers Obama has a huge advantage among minorities, and Romney has a sizeable advantage among white voters, specifically white males. Gallup may be dismissing too many minority voters to get the likely voter number. If those minorities show up at the polls, Romney loses. If turnout among minorities is small, Romney wins. Gallup seems to think the minorities won't turn out, but I don't think anybody really knows right now.
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usaone
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Post by usaone on Oct 19, 2012 18:40:54 GMT -5
61.8% to 38.2%
It's over. It's been over.
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cereb
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Post by cereb on Oct 19, 2012 18:42:57 GMT -5
"The momentum is such now that you could find Romney on the list of sex abusers released in the Massachusetts Boy Scout case and he'd still win. Sorry, Dems. It's over... "
Is anyone collecting these gems in one spot? I could so totally enjoy it after the election is over!
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