Yclept Trades

[yclept]

Sold SOXS @ 104.26 -- lost a touch; it looks like Obama's speech put the plug in the jug for the time being; reckon we're not going down 700 on the DJI today after all.

I thought this article was a hoot!
www.borowitzreport.com/2011/08/08/predator-drone-seen-hovering-above-s-p-headquarters/

[burger]

I put in a 5% trailing on TVIX. It triggered at 43.15 for a 1 day gain of about 26% (I got in at the end of the day on Friday). I'll ride SRTY a little longer and see what happens with it tomorrow.

*edit* Looks like I should have rode it all the way to right before the close. Closed at 44.26.

[yclept]

Sold TVIX @ 42.128; I think this ride might be over for the time being.

Bought FXS @ 153.95; Swedish Krona looks like a decent place to hide some dollars for awhile.

Bought EWD @ 25.1044; and after looking over the Krona I decided to give Sweden itself a try.

Bought TVIX @ 46.0599; yep the same one I sold this morning and at a substantially higher price; volatility seems to be picking up again. Reckon we'll see; the sale this morning was obviously a mistake in hindsight -- so now I've either rectified that mistake or made it worse!

[burger]

Yeah, I got stopped out of SRTY around 29. I'm pretty much just waiting to see what Ben has to say this afternoon before doing much else.

[yclept]

Well, I certainly got hammered in that last hour while I was downstairs watching Charlie Rose's program from last night. The re-buy of TVIX took back all of the profit I had from my last excursion into it. And it did it in only about an hour and 15 minutes! Hah -- reckon that ought to teach me something, though I don't know what.

DXD hammered in the last hour, down 7.99% for the day; QID likewise, down 9.6% on the day.

Glad I didn't decide to try SRTY again, it was down 20.83% for the day.

Reckon we'll just have to wait to see what tomorrow brings!

[livinincali]

Bear market rules apply now. Expect face ripping rallies when the short squeeze gets on but also expect them to be short lived. If it really is a bear market we'll be retesting these lows by next Friday's OpEx and perhaps be down even more. This is day trader territory or short when the market gets oversold on the 60 minute or daily charts.

[Bluerobin]

Good day to take the dog to the park!

[yclept]

Bought FAZ @ 68.13

Edit:
Bought JADE @ 2.36

Came back just before the close to find I had bought this; It was a limit order that's been in place for at least a month or two with a target price I kept lowering, but it hit today.
Now I'm going to have to go back and dig out some old notes to see why I wanted to buy it! Hah, hoist with my own petard ;-)
I see it's closed at 2.35, so a loser thus far, but it's only 1800 shares, so not even a full position. The funny thing is I see it traded as low as 2.16. Looks to me like the market maker was buying up those lower prices to re-stock his inventory whilst keeping my order and some others in his back pocket and then unloaded the stock on us for a profit. I'm sure it's not worth the time and effort it would take to try to prove it, but if that's what happened, it was illegal.

Looking further, I see JADE was down almost 19% today, though I find no news to account for it. I do see that some entity called "Red Flags Alert" made available a report today on JADE that one could buy for $25. I am not so-inclined.

QID and DXD are the big guns in the port today and they were up 8.06 and 9.33 percent (respectively) today, so all is well with the world.

[burger]

I'm in FAZ as well (@68.75). Assuming it doesn't go huge one way or the other, are you planning on holding it into tomorrow?

[yclept]

I was tempted to sell it earlier when I had a few hundred bucks profit in it; now it's back to about even -- wish I had sold it.

I'll probably just watch and see what happens in the last hour or so. The last hour of the day was insane yesterday, and there I was watching the Charlie Rose program from the night before!

I'll definitely take the money and run if it gets up to levels near the highs of yesterday or the day before.

The SPY has been in a trading range all day after the opening drop. I expect it to break one way or the other, as I don't think this wrangling between the bulls and bears can go on for a whole day -- at least it hasn't lately. In the 19th century bull and bear fights the Griz always won -- not to say that has anything real to say about the market analogies!

nevada-outback-gems.com/gold_rush_tales/california_gold_rush-tale66.htm

[burger]

I've got a stop on mine at 67. I'll most likely be out one way or the other before the closing bell. Hopefully reaping some profits!

*edit* well I'm out at 67. I guess we'll see how the rest of the day goes to see if I should have ridden it out.

[yclept]

Well, I've only got one position of this, so I think I'm going to let it ride. My moving average indicators 5/15/50 are all crossed into negative territory as, of course, has the 4/14, and on SPX, the 50 is about to cross below the 200.

To me this all indicates a market that is going to continue downward. When I was tempted to sell FAZ this morning, it was because it had made a few percent in a very short amount of time and I was just going to take the $200 and run. Right now it's down about $170 but still a position that coincides with my determination of market direction, so I'm more inclined to just hold onto it as a negatively biased position -- which was all it was supposed to be in the beginning.

Had I taken the money this morning, I could be buying back now with a useful bit of money in my pocket -- such is life, can't catch every little wiggle and wag in the markets.

The little upsurge we just had seems to be getting beaten back down towards the trading range we saw earlier today. Hopefully it will break below that and get clobbered in the last hour. But I won't know 'till later as I'm about to go watch the Charlie Rose program from last night and see what that idiot George Will had to say!

[burger]

Grrrrr. I wish I would have had some balls to hold FAZ!

[yclept]

Sold TVIX @ 39.8912; bought 8/9 @ 46.0599; 35% loss in two days -- reckon that's got to be a record of some sort. I see it's now trading at about 42-1/2, so I may have gotten out at the worst price of the day. Controlling loss is what position sizing is all about. This one is too crazy for me.

Bought EWS @ 12.5186 This is more of an implementation of my attempt to diversify investments out of USD than it is a move to the long side, though I think prospects for countries like Singapore are brighter than they are for the US economy. Yet EWS has taken just as hard a fall as the rest of the world markets. I think this one is a case of baby and bathwater. Reckon we'll see.

Edit: Answer to question below: yes, still have FAZ; down today so far and down a bit overall. It was originally bought as an addition to the group of short holdings I have that are dictated by my current overall market stance, which is short. I was tempted to sell it the other day for a quick profit and then jump back in at a hopefully lower price. Didn't move fast enough, so that couple of hundred buck potential sublimated!

I tend to try to keep my posts on this thread to one a day with edits during the day to reflect ongoing changes as a means of not letting it get to so many pages and posts as to make it hard to find stuff. I think it might also be easier for anyone who might be reading this journal, especially when they want to look back to see what I originally paid for some stock I'm reporting as being sold.

Edit: Somebody's getting desperate, they pulled out the unloaded revolver with the broken firing pin and pointed it directly at their own head:
10:33 AM European shares get another jolt higher as CNBC reports senior government sources saying Italy and France will impose a short-selling ban after the close of trading today. France +1.7%, more than 5% higher than its level 2 hours ago. Italy +3%.

Bought TBT @ 26.9288 I was watching it, but was in the shower getting ready to go to dentist for a crown replacement when it took its pop up. It happened pretty fast, I probably would have missed most of it anyway, but I do think it's time to start shorting the treasury again after having abandoned that ship a week or so ago at about 28.

[burger]

I assume you are still holding FAZ then?

[yclept]

Sold FAZ @ 58.0201; - 15.03%; reducing short exposure; still have DXD and QID

Sold JADE @ 2.52; 6.89%; taking a quick profit on this one; it hit a limit buy last week -- can't for the life of me figure out why I wanted to own it to begin with, but I guess if you get something cheap enough and it's not on the way to absolute zero, it'll sometimes works out okay.

Sold FXY @ 128.54; 0.43%; Japan is moving to weaken the Yen and this ETF is at the top of it's recent trading range.

Bought UCO @ 34.369;in a data-mining study I did awhile ago cumulative monthly events for oil seem to yield positive returns for UCO between the 14th and the 17th of the month. I attributed this apparent result to the sum of economic forces regarding settlement dates for monthly oil contracts. The chart is showing an upturn from a recent local bottom, so I thought I'd try it this month. I expect to sell this Wednesday.

sold TBT @ 26.7212; -1%; I though it was time to try this again, but also was determined to it if it didn't get going in the right direction rather than letting it burn me like it did during my last long hold. Treasury bonds are insane, but I'm probably just as insane for messing with them again. Then I read this article, which prompted me to cut my loss short:
www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-14/u-s-bonds-converging-with-japan-heralds-biggest-treasury-rally-since-2008.html

If Bill Gross/Pimco is getting back into bonds, I'm not going to bet against him (which isn't the same as saying I'm willing to buy TLT).

[yclept]

Sold DXD @ 19.2314; only made a few hundred dollars on these multiple buys; 4ma is going to cross above 14ma on $DJI either today or tomorrow. So, my signal was still too late to get me out of this at the best point. Still, it was a much better place to have money over the last couple of weeks than would have been most any long position.

I still have QID which is currently down a few hundred bucks -- have a sell order on it at 53.6 which I think it's likely to hit at some point over the next day or two just with normal volatility.

This has taken me back to ~57% cash.

Sold QID@53.6; lost about $200 on this foray, so between the DXD and the QID I ended up making about $300 overall; no big deal, but again, much much better than if the money had been in long positions over the same period.

This has taken me to about 68% cash. I have no short positions left in the port, but expect this to be a temporary situation; I'm expecting a little bounce from an oversold (but not undervalued -- this was the last quarter of improving profits in my opinion; prior year comparisons are getting harder from here on out) market condition and then a continuance of the downward trend. I'll be jumping back into short ETFs when the worm next turns.

[livinincali]

Technicals suggest a retest of the lows and then a more meaningful rally over the next 3-4 weeks. If you want to short it I'd probably do it here as I don't know that there's a ton of room on the downside. I'll probably be a short term buyer around the 1100 level but only for a rally back up towards the 200 and 50 day moving averages maybe 1200-1250. A failure at the 200 day moving average with a reset of the oversold conditions would probably result in an even more severe sell off but that's getting ahead ourselves., we may see fed intervention or more determination from the dip buyers at that point.

[yclept]

Obviously I sold the short ETFs too early as the bottom has dropped out of the market since I sold. But they largely served their purpose, allowing me to make a little money (while counterbalancing the long positions I still had) over a pretty bad downturn. I gave a lot of profit back by doubling my short ETF positions at what in retrospect looks like it was the end of the near-term downward run. I'm left now with a few long positions that are attempts to diversify away from USD denominated investments: EWD, EWS, EWZ, FXS, the small drug gamble I've taken, NBY, and the oil play I took on Monday, UCO, which I will be winding up one way or the other tomorrow.
I too think the longer term direction is decidedly down, but have indicators that are trying to tell me we're going to see a dead-cat bounce in the near term. If that happens, I will probably take some fast stabs at long positions until the indicators again tell me the bounce is over (it might be over now!). The McClellan Oscillator has been signaling "up" for a couple of days: stockcharts.com/freecharts/McSumNYSE.html
By the same token, the McClellan has risen very fast, and may well be at the end of it's run. I'm just as happy to sit largely in cash for the time being while this all sorts itself out, especially considering the wild gyrations last week and the very high volume (for August). With a $7 commission, lost opportunity is the only consideration in being in or out at any given time. I think we're at a decision point, I just don't know which way we're going short-term. Long term I'm more convinced the direction is down for the next few months.

[yclept]

Much as I like cash sometimes, it's kind of boring! The 4/14 ma signal I am using nowadays has trajectories and momentum such that it has to cross upwards on major indices within the next couple of days. So, I'm jumping the gun and picking up a few stocks from one of my deep value screens:
Bought TSO @ 21.5475
P/E 7.79
PEG 0.56
Price/Revenue 0.12
Price/Cash Flow 3.69
Price/Book (MRQ) 0.84
ROA 4.31%
ROE 11.46%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 1.40
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.48

Bought SFD @ 20.8499
P/E 6.58
PEG 0.73
Price/Revenue 0.28
Price/Cash Flow 4.49
Price/Book (MRQ) 0.96
ROA 6.80%
ROE 16.54%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 2.72
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.60

Bought KEM @ 10.0786
P/E 4.46
PEG 0.98
Price/Revenue 0.41
Price/Cash Flow 2.65
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.10
ROA 14.17%
ROE 35.40%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 2.58
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.68

So far each of them has decided to punish me for my irrational exuberance and impatience. Oh well, they're single positions, and much smaller than the leveraged short positions I've dropped over the last few days. Every position in the ports is showing green (which is to say "up" for the day, though these last three are down from my buy price). Kind of a nice change of pace.

Edit: 9:30 PDT
So much for "all green" -- hah, hoist with my own petard! Reckon that's what position sizing is all about. I can be wrong without it being a disaster.

Edit 12:45 PDT
Sold UCO @ 34.431; didn't make enough to even cover the $14 in and out commissions. This play didn't work out this month. I should have sold this morning when the position was up a few hundred dollars, but the study was based upon selling at the close on the 17th. Reckon if one is committed to following mechanical systems, one has to just do so. It was the only reason I had for buying UCO.

[yclept]

I can't believe it! I projected the 4 and 14 moving averages forward based on their trajectories (they appeared heading for a near 90º cross). I sold the leveraged shorts and started picking up a few long positions. Unless today's opening loss reverses, it looks like the 4 won't cross above the 14 and my anticipation of a change back to long has cost me big time (mostly in missing the gains in the ETF shorts -- those positions were much larger than the few long positions I took on yesterday).
I have a system, didn't follow it, and now I've got a mess. I'm not comfortable re-buying the leveraged shorts right now for fear that this big opening drop will reverse somewhat before heading back down. And I've got long positions I never should have picked up. I guess I'm just stuck on stupid -- that must be the explanation. I think maybe it's best to have an early breakfast, take the dog for a morning walk in the fog, and come back in an hour or two and start by dumping the long positions I picked up. Then pick up some short ETFs and carry on just as if I've learned some lesson or other.

[rovo]

I really feel for Yclept getting whip-sawed around. Basically, this market is a bitch to figure out on a short term basis.

[livinincali]

Looks like we're getting the retest of the lows that I was expecting. Now we get to see if the lows hold or if things get worse. It's a really tough trade right here, I was expecting a retest but not in such a severe fashion. Lows hold and we get a big up day on good internals and I figure a multi-week rally starts, if not who knows. I have this weird feeling that adding to shorts is the right move here, but I'm scared to take that trade.

[livinincali]

BTW 10 Year bond yield went below 2.00 earlier, which actually breached the lows of 2008. The 30 year is significantly higher than the 2008 lows so maybe we really are coming to the end of the 30 years bond bull market. It would make a lot of sense to see a divergence between the 10 and 30 year at the top of the bond bull. The TBT/TLT pair represent a blend of the 10 year and 30 year treasuries in the futures market.

[yclept]

Thanks for the commiseration. It's funny, but when I saw the open and some of the news this morning, one of my reactions was to think of you and a lot of the other folks holding a lot of long positions. I'm primarily suffering the frustration of not following the system I've committed to.
But here's something to hopefully cheer everybody up! That KEM I bought yesterday is down 9.33% today (after dropping about 3% yesterday from my buy point). I know that's nowhere near a record of any sort, but it is a pretty nasty drop and hopefully will make some of the longs you guys hold look good by comparison. I mean, 12% down in 24 hours on no news -- that's a pretty bad pick!

"That which does not kill us makes us stronger."
-- Friedrich Nietzsche --

[rovo]

I have a lot of long positions but even with the decline I am not that concerned because they are longer term positions. The one long that is killing me is TBT as I am down a lot of % with no hope of it ever recovering.

[yclept]

TBT -- yep, I've thrown in the towel on that devil twice recently; bit the bullet on the long term holding back on Aug 4 for a decent loss. Then I just had to go back and take another taste of the poison well on the 11th, and coughed it up again 2 trading days later on the 15th. It makes so much sense -- bonds are dead money and soon will be losing even capital to inflation. It just seems such a no-brainer to short them. But there are obviously a whole lot of folks who will buy them no matter what. It's the same bubble as gold, except gold has nothing to limit it's fall when the bubble finally bursts. At least treasuries shouldn't fall to less than something around their original purchasing power.
I think I'm going to take a hard look at tulips. Tulip bulbs, that is, not just the promise of a tulip next spring. I want the bulbs in my grubby little hands.

[mtntigger]

Tulip bulbs, that is, not just the promise of a tulip next spring. I want the bulbs in my grubby little hands.

Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
- Winston Churchill

[yclept]

One thing I find kind of encouraging is that both my best long screen and my best short screen are pulling no tickers. According to my best screens I should have no money whatsoever in the market today, which is probably a pretty good reading.

So I reckon later today when the dust begins to settle, I'll concentrate on getting rid of most of the long positions that have crept into the port recently. I'll probably keep the plays that are oriented towards Brazil, Sweden, and Malasia.

It is not worthwhile to try to keep history from repeating itself, for man's character will always make the preventing of the repetitions impossible.
- Mark Twain in Eruption

[rovo]

Today's market is giving me a headache so I'm going to bury my head in the sand and go climb on the roof for a while and try to finish a portion of my roofing job. ;D