|
|
Post by yclept on May 24, 2011 8:34:11 GMT -5
Sold SDS 20.871
Bought VALE @ 30.749; mistake, hit the buy instead of the sell button; I was intending to put a GTC sell order on the VALE I already have. So now I've placed a GTC on 400 shares versus the 200 shares I already had at 32.3 -- I'll let her ride for awhile.
Bought QID @ 51.72; looks like that little bounce this morning that shook me out of SDS is over. Rather than get into a mess with wash sale rules, I'll just jump on another 2x negative market index ETF.
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on May 25, 2011 8:39:50 GMT -5
Bought SQQQ @ 26.3; pressing down a little harder on the pedal.
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on May 31, 2011 8:54:41 GMT -5
Sold SQQQ @ 24.2 -- oh well, such is life; hanging on to the QID for now.
Sold VALE @ 32.3
Bought TAN @ 7.41
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 1, 2011 11:16:35 GMT -5
sold EWZ @ 74.4112
bought CMED @ 9.8972 and 9.899, this is from a "quick kill" screen; I don't expect to own it for long. Stepped back to $4k position size as I just don't want much money in this market. If I can make 5% or so on this devil in a day or two, that's all I'm looking for.
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 2, 2011 8:32:34 GMT -5
sold CMED 10.341
sold HSOL @ 6.2
sold TAN @ 7.15 and 7.155
sold AAUKY @ 24.16
Right or wrong, this takes me to about 77% cash and of the 23% invested a little bit of it is double short through QID and some is in TBT which is short bonds (which arguably could be considered long stock); anyway, it is what it is and It's been doing poorly! But I'm convinced bonds of all sorts are in a bubble so this is one of those stupid things I tend to do -- hanging onto a position just because I think I'm right. But then, even a blind pig finds an acorn now and again.
Bought DXD @ 17.8181
That takes me a bit more into the short category.
|
|
Bluerobin
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 14:24:30 GMT -5
Posts: 17,345 
Location: NEPA
|
Post by Bluerobin on Jun 2, 2011 11:23:56 GMT -5
Seems like you are hitting a few walls too. I have had a bad few weeks. One of my other friends has also.
Plus, I am loosing the desire. SS starts next month, and I won't need trading so much. Maybe just a few dividend stocks!
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 2, 2011 11:41:30 GMT -5
Actually I'm not doing too bad. I'm down about 3% since the beginning of May (roughly the same as the $SPX). The CMED sold above was a one-day scalp of about 3% or so; the others were down a few percent from where I bought them, but nothing amounting to a cats-ass-trophy!
My biggest risk right now is that if the market rockets upward, I've got an awful lot of money on the sidelines that will miss the potential gains and, of course, I now have two leveraged shorts as well as the TBT which will be headed in the wrong direction. The only loser I have in the stable today is SOL (my last solar cell stock) which is down by about 3.3% -- offset today by gains in TBT (of which I own considerably more than SOL) and NC. The shorts are doing me a little bit of good, but I don't have a heck of a lot in them. For example the DXD I just bought was 300 sh, so only a bit over $5k.
I'm just selling stuff as it falls off the screens that picked it and not replacing it with the new tickers. I don't see much sense in buying a bunch of new boats (no matter how shiny they appear) in what appears to me as a falling-tide market.
|
|
Bluerobin
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 14:24:30 GMT -5
Posts: 17,345
Location: NEPA
|
Post by Bluerobin on Jun 3, 2011 7:22:18 GMT -5
I can't seem to find the boatyard lately. Maybe I need a month of R&R.
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 3, 2011 9:07:19 GMT -5
bought ECH @ 76.455
bought FXP @ 27.049; this is 2x short China ETF
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 6, 2011 9:45:34 GMT -5
bought DXD @ 18.1281 and 18.1299 (doubled existing position size). Wading a little deeper into the dirty end of the pool!
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 8, 2011 9:18:57 GMT -5
sold NC @ 90.51 -- late last week this one dropped from the value screen that picked it; not to mention the seasonal indicators and moving averages are all telling me I shouldn't own anything long right now. But I said to myself, says me unto me: "it's such a well-behaved little stock, and just paid a minuscule dividend, surely we can keep it as a pet". Right! It gave me a swift kick to the nuts, dragged me over to the curb opened my mouth with my teeth on either side of the curb angle and kicked me in the back of the head -- my front teeth are laying like Chiclets in the gutter. Nice little pet indeed!
SOL sold 5.9201
TSL sold 20.471
Same story as above, except these are still showing on the value screen that picked them. Each gave me a nice 6% kick to the groin this morning -- enough is enough.
ECH sold 75.7001 -- a recent excursion into what I thought would be the light; not much of a change in the few days since I bought it, but it was my last long position.
SQQQ bought @ 27.4899 -- throwing more fuel on the short holdings fire.
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 10, 2011 10:05:34 GMT -5
Bought QID @ 55.25; doubled my holding to 2 positions of this 2x leveraged ETF
Bought FXP @ 28.989; doubled my holding to 2 positions of this 2x inverse FTSE China index; I wish I knew of an ETF inverse for smaller cap Chinese stocks, but I don't.
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 13, 2011 12:30:45 GMT -5
Bought EDZ @ 19.67
Sold FXP @ 28.411
This actually puts me less short than I was as I had two positions of FXP that I sold, and only bought 1 position of EDZ.
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 13, 2011 17:43:39 GMT -5
Jade is getting close to my GTC buy order which is at 3.25
QID has a little way to go to hit my GTC sell order at 57.95
ZSL is moving away again from my GTC buy order at 14.5
and F has to drop an awful lot to reach my GTC buy order at 1.87 (Rovo's blood pressure briefly pops to 300 diastolic!); but I really do think there's a remote chance that F will get down there so have an order in to keep in mind to watch it. I might want to raise the order to 2 or even 2-1/2 if it has trouble getting down to the 1.87 (Rovo slumps from chair and hits the floor). It'll be okay with me if it never fills.
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 14, 2011 11:24:56 GMT -5
Bought UCO @ 45.789; expect to hold only until about Friday.
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 15, 2011 9:53:59 GMT -5
Bought MY @ 5.6495 This is from a "quick-kill" screen and something I would normally expect to hold only for a short while. There is encouraging news about contracts signed to supply wind farms to a province in China in exchange for which partial quid-pro-quo offers access and partial ownership in rare earth mining in that province. Rare earths, especially neodymium, are very important in the manufacture of the magnets that are in the generators of all wind turbines; a secure access channel (if that's what this represents) is a big boon to any fixed-magnet generator manufacturer. finance.yahoo.com/news/MY-Gains-Access-to-Rare-Earth-prnews-493782434.html?x=0&.v=1This and the UCO I bought yesterday are the only long positions I hold presently, and I don't expect to hold them very long. The UCO should be gone by Friday. The MY will remain in the port only as long as it remains on the screen that picked it. In the above directional statement, I am counting TBT as a short position as it is short government bonds, though it could be argued it is more a synthetic long on the stock market. MY: P/E 4.86 PEG 0.51 Price/Revenue 0.72 Price/Cash Flow NA Price/Book (MRQ) 1.15 ROA NA% ROE NA% Current Ratio (MRQ) 1.82 Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.16 NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter there are more NAs above than I normally like to see. But there are also a significant number of shorts whose tutus may be flapping in the breeze and likely to get caught in a slamming door as they try to exit the building: Short Interest Information Current Month 2.77 Mil Previous Month 2.50 Mil Short Interest Ratio 6.16 Day |
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 15, 2011 12:07:39 GMT -5
Well, the UCO and MY are certainly giving me a thrashing. Fortunately the leveraged short ETFs are overwhelming the losses in these two -- reckon I had to learn this lesson again. Don't row against the tide.
I'll keep them until they reach the target dates or screening conditions that dictate "sell" since it won't be long, but I hope I've finally learned to not get clever and take long positions in a crashing market.
I sold EDZ (3x emerging markets short) @ 19.9301; before this it had been lagging the other leveraged shorts I have but jumped about 6% today which lets me get out with a little profit. I'll probably sit on this cash for the time being to let the market have a little relief bounce over the next day or so then throw more money into either existing short ETF positions or pick a new one -- this one just moved too slowly. I'm guessing it's not as actively known or traded as many others.
It's been a good day for the shorts with more to come, I hope. But I do think we're due for another little relief rally like we got yesterday.
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 15, 2011 12:20:38 GMT -5
My GTC order for JADE was getting dangerously close to being filled at 3.25. I don't really want any long positions now unless they are virtually given to me. I lowered my buy price to 3.1 and added "all or none" to the order so I don't get some piddling number of shares filled and end up paying the $7 commission on same.
What the heck, I just lowered it again to 2.6 which is only a little above the low over the last year. I'm going to make the market shove this down my throat, and I'm hoping to bite it's hand off when it does.
Tell A.P. Hill to hurry up his forces, we need them sorely.
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 16, 2011 9:08:16 GMT -5
Bought REW @ 64.04
Bought SOXS @ 72.3
Monday June 23 1862
JACKSON JUDGES JOURNEY JEOPARDY JUSTIFIED
A very important meeting was held at Robert E. Lee’s headquarters at Dabb’s House north of Richmond. All principle generals were there, including Stonewall Jackson who had ridden ahead of his divisions to make it. The assessment: McClellan was getting too close to Richmond for comfort. The city could not withstand a siege. It was time to go on the offensive and turn McClellan’s line and drive him back North. The decision reached, Jackson rode back to speed his divisions onward. The attack could not begin without them.
Jackson's divisions were nicknamed the "foot cavalry" due to the frequent long fast marches they performed.
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 17, 2011 9:30:15 GMT -5
sold UCO @ 41.351; that one sure worked out poorly.
SOXS is certainly doing nicely today for a negatively biased ETF swimming on a nominally "up" day.
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 20, 2011 9:29:25 GMT -5
sold SOXS @ 77.08 (6.6% in about 2 days)
bought TZA @ 41.469
bought SCO @ 51
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 22, 2011 10:45:21 GMT -5
Bought TYP @ 23.5
Sold MY @ 5.84; that one was supposed to have been a "quick kill", but it took 5 days to play-out, so became a "long-term, buy-and-hold"!
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 22, 2011 12:36:21 GMT -5
Sometimes I describe a stock as coming from my "quick kill" screen. It is a pretty simple screen (only four criteria) that I use to find stocks I expect to jump soon from a very oversold condition. My goal is to pick-up these stocks and catch a bounce upwards within a few days. I do not automatically buy anything the screen picks, but use it to select stocks for fundamental analysis.
Quick Kill screening parameters:
RSI(14)<20 (the basis of the screen)
price>2 (screening out very low priced stocks that are often imponderable junk)
PEExclXorTTM<10 (a preliminary value screen to hopefully find stocks that are also undervalued)
Daily $ Amount, 20 day average > $200k (a minimum liquidity screen -- it at least assures that any position size I would take isn't the tail that wags the dog)
This morning this screen produced two tickers, EEI and GAGA.
EEI:
P/E 10.00
PEG 7.19
Price/Revenue 0.42
Price/Cash Flow 6.68
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.41
ROA 10.58%
ROE 14.86%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 2.23
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.04
Stock Valuation - Group Comparison
Company Industry Median Sector Median S&P 500 Median
Pr-Earnings TTM 10.00 21.87 18.70 17.64
Proj PE Est Cur Yr EPS 10.65 18.67 16.36 14.74
Proj PE Est Cur Yr EPS 9.89 14.63 14.21 12.96
PEG (Cur Yr EPS & LT Gr) N/A 1.23 1.30 1.29
Proj LT Growth Rate N/A 15.00 12.50 11.08
Pr-Sales TTM 0.42 1.10 1.32 1.65
Pr-Cash Fl TTM 6.68 14.83 10.54 11.49
Pr-Free Cash Fl TTM N/A 19.27 17.65 20.32
Pr-Book Val TTM 1.41 2.18 1.91 2.42
Pr-Tan Book Val TTM 1.41 4.56 2.59 3.83
Yield 2.68 1.60 3.16 1.95
Beta 0.40 1.15 1.24 1.07
Compared to medians 26 Better 10 Worse
GAGA:
P/E 9.92
PEG 0.16
Price/Revenue 4.11
Price/Cash Flow 9.24
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.30
ROA NA%
ROE NA%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 15.95
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.07
Stock Valuation - Group Comparison
Company Industry Median Sector Median S&P 500 Median
Pr-Earnings TTM 9.92 17.51 17.51 17.64
Proj PE Est Cur Yr EPS 7.57 15.29 15.29 14.74
Proj PE Est Cur Yr EPS 5.20 12.51 12.51 12.96
PEG (Cur Yr EPS & LT Gr) 0.25 0.73 0.73 1.29
Proj LT Growth Rate 30.00 30.00 30.00 11.08
Pr-Sales TTM 4.11 1.32 1.32 1.65
Pr-Cash Fl TTM 9.24 11.18 11.18 11.49
Pr-Free Cash Fl TTM N/A 20.61 20.61 20.32
Pr-Book Val TTM 1.30 1.84 1.84 2.42
Pr-Tan Book Val TTM 1.31 4.29 4.29 3.83
Yield N/A 0.84 0.84 1.95
Beta N/A 1.15 1.15 1.07
Compared to medians 24 Better 12 Worse
I tried to put the above into a more legible form of a table, but finally gave up -- just too much of a mess.
I also checked for news (especially adverse news).
So anyway, I put limit orders in on the two of these; EEI @ 16.65 and GAGA @ 5.52. I see that while I've been typing this GAGA filled and is now sitting at 5.51. EEI ran away from my order and is now 17.1. Normally I would have been watching charts and might have tried to chase EEI, but it's very low liquidity and I probably would have lost it anyway. Had I caught EEI down at 16.65, I'd most likely be trying to sell it on a limit order at about where it is now. This is, after all, a "quick-kill" screen.
All of my screens are run on StockScreen123 which costs $15/mo for unlimited screening. I think they still have a "guest" feature that lets one save and run one or two screens without paying.
So anyway, when I refer to a buy as a "quick kill" (such as the MY I sold above) those are the selection steps I've taken on the buy decision. The sell decision is more nebulous -- if I'm losing like crazy on a selection, I it and crawl off in the corner to lick my wound (doesn't happen often with this screen). If it's doing nothing, I'll hold it for awhile (say a week or so) hoping it will pan-out. If it gives me 5% or more within a day or two, I take the money and run. I confine these very short term plays to the Roth account so I don't have to keep track and report all of them for tax purposes.
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 23, 2011 10:20:59 GMT -5
sold GAGA @ 5.61 and 5.5601; bought yesterday at 5.52, but I don't see it listed above; guess I forgot to mention it. It was from the quick kill screen, and dropped from same today. I covered commissions, but not much more. Too bad, it started up nicely after I bought it, but got disemboweled today.
Bought ART; 300 @ 11.26; order was for 500 shares, but it looks like the rest of it isn't going to fill. From Quick-Kill screen, so it won't be in my flock very long. Whoops, while typing this the other 200 shares filled, and now it's down to 11.25.
Ratios & Statistics - Trailing Twelve Months
P/E 7.58
PEG 0.66
Price/Revenue 2.08
Price/Cash Flow 6.94
Price/Book (MRQ) 5.44
ROA 31.89%
ROE 113.21%
Current Ratio (MRQ) NA
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.45
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter
Short Interest Information
Current Month 2.67 Mil
Previous Month 2.34 Mil
Short Interest Ratio 13.67 Day
13-1/2 days worth of shorts needing to cover sometime is a lot of shorts. I hope they have to cover soon!
|
|
rovo
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 18, 2010 14:20:19 GMT -5
Posts: 3,628
|
Post by rovo on Jun 23, 2011 10:27:36 GMT -5
Yclept, Overall, has the "quick kill" screen been profitable? I watch your actions but do not calculate returns.
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 23, 2011 11:24:30 GMT -5
Yes, my overall results have been nicely positive. It's such a simple screen with so few selection criteria that it hardly seems like it should be very effective. I get a lot of short-term wins and almost no losers. The wins aren't big when I truncate the trade, but probably average about 4% in a few days.
I can only give this anecdotal answer since my sell discipline isn't defined by a stock leaving the screen, but rather by taking the money and running -- usually well under a 1 week time frame, thus it does not mirror the results that the back testing function of Stockscreen123 gives.
I just now ran the Stockscreen back test just for the fun of it:
1 year: screen gain: 20.2%; S&P500 gain: 17.5%
2 year: screen gain: 97.7%; S&P 500 gain: 44.1%
11/1/2010 to 5/5/2011 (the last complete favorable stock season): screen gain: 107.6%; S&P 500 gain: 13.4%
These results illustrate that there are significant times when strict adherence to this screen would lose money (i.e. the fact that it gained 107% over part of last year, but only 20% over a full year (6/23/10 to 6/23/11). In fact by picking some of the worst periods from the back testing graph results I can come up with the following:
7/15/2010 to 12/8/2010: screen: -76.2%; S&P500: +11.9%
Obviously that would have been a particularly unremunerative time to have been following this screen slavishly.
The S&P is just a reference above. Obviously it's nothing but a buy-and-hold strategy over the same time period with very little buying or selling except when the index is revised.
But again, those don't represent the way I use the screen. I don't always buy whatever it throws out, and I don't sell based upon a ticker dropping from the screen (although I almost always sell a stock that's losing me money if it drops from the screen -- at that point I have no mechanical investing reason to hold it).
TBT is gutting us out again today. The rest of my port is green since it's all either cash or short ETFs. The political move to release oil from strategic reserves has certainly given a big boost to my SCO. Funny, I was very reluctant to short oil, but decided to follow the shorting screen anyway. Just goes to show how little my thinking ought to influence my position selections! Speaking of which, I'm very tempted to sell the SCO since this may be a 1-day news-based phenomenon. But the screen that picked it still likes it, so I am reluctantly deferring to the screen for now.
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 24, 2011 13:10:36 GMT -5
Bought STM @ 9.2499
P/E 9.09
PEG 16.52
Price/Revenue 0.80
Price/Cash Flow 4.47
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.03
ROA 4.77%
ROE 12.64%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 2.12
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.22
Short Interest Information
Current Month 9.78 Mil
Previous Month 9.73 Mil
Short Interest Ratio 6.27 Day
Bought VSH @ 14.3699
P/E 6.95
PEG 0.58
Price/Revenue 0.87
Price/Cash Flow 4.20
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.50
ROA 13.29%
ROE 24.63%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 3.64
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.27
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter
Short Interest Information
Current Month 16.68 Mil
Previous Month 13.37 Mil
Short Interest Ratio 5.90 Day
Against my better judgment I took on a couple of long positions. The devil made me do it! I didn't notice the high PEG for STM until after I bought it. I like to keep PEG low, but since the "G" is an analysts estimate (average of a bunch of morons), I won't let the high PEG bother me too much. If the stock moves up, fine. If it falls much I'll it. That's pretty much the way I would like to deal with all of them anyway.
All of the negatively biased ETFs I have are nicely green today, but I think we're seeing some babies being thrown out with the bathwater.
Addendum: bought CADC @ 1.79
Ratios & Statistics - Trailing Twelve Months
P/E 2.06
PEG 0.10
Price/Revenue 0.27
Price/Cash Flow 1.56
Price/Book (MRQ) 0.43
ROA 15.69%
ROE 27.60%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 1.71
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.19
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter
Short Interest Information
Current Month 0.11 Mil
Previous Month 0.11 Mil
Short Interest Ratio 0.68 Day
This was a limit order I placed this morning. It didn't look like it was going to fill due to low liquidity. My offer was actually at the ask for quite awhile and I was only looking to pick up 2200 shares, but it seems for a long time not that many were available. Took a late shower and came back to see it had filled.
All of the long positions I bought today are losers so far. I knew better than to do it. As I said above, the devil made me.
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 27, 2011 9:21:14 GMT -5
sold SQQQ @ 28.4001 up 3%, 19 days
sold TYP @ 24.1701 up 2.6%, 5 days
sold TZA @ 38.711 down 6.67% 7 days
Sold the triple negative ETFs I was holding; overall small loss on the three above. These devils just move too fast (for better or worse) and I no longer felt comfortable holding them in this market; For now I'm keeping the other less-leveraged ETFs I have: DXD, QID, REW, SCO, and TBT (bonds, so not really equivalent to the others above. Once the market establishes a more definitive direction (I expect down), I may be more comfortable picking these up again.
Bought ARW @ 37.3199
Ratios & Statistics - Trailing Twelve Months
P/E 8.20
PEG 0.61
Price/Revenue 0.21
Price/Cash Flow 6.93
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.22
ROA 6.21%
ROE 16.51%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 1.60
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.58
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter
Short Interest Information
Current Month 2.48 Mil
Previous Month 1.86 Mil
Short Interest Ratio 2.13 Day
I expect the 4/14 ma signal I'm presently using to turn negative again within a short period of time. As a result, this may be a very short term holding.
Sold REW @ 61.4101 down 4.3%; 11 days
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 28, 2011 8:50:01 GMT -5
Sold SCO @ 53.1301; 3.9%, 8 days; this is one I should have sold a couple of days ago when the news of the tiny oil release came out. It hasn't gotten up to that price since.
Sold DXD @ 18.0514; about 3/4% over 2 periods; earliest buy was 6/2
Sold QID @ 53.2319; about 1% over 3 periods; earliest buy was 6/2
The 4 sma appears to be holding above the 14. It crossed up on 6/21; prices I'm getting today are about the same as I would have gotten then.
I no longer have any short positions; mostly cash.
Bought TSTC @ 6.05
Ratios & Statistics - Trailing Twelve Months
P/E 2.33
PEG 0.34
Price/Revenue 0.54
Price/Cash Flow 2.58
Price/Book (MRQ) 0.61
ROA 15.47%
ROE 29.87%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 1.91
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.09
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter
Short Interest Information
Current Month 2.17 Mil
Previous Month 2.15 Mil
Short Interest Ratio 10.66 Day
Looks to me there are some shorts in need of squeezing on this one.
|
|
|
|
Post by yclept on Jun 29, 2011 15:53:57 GMT -5
Sold VSH @ 14.8101
Sold ARW @ 38.7101
both of these fell off the screen that picked them
Bought HES @ 72.16
Bought YTEC @ 3.12; only picked up 400 of the 1300 shares I was trying to get on this one; very low liquidity, which is part of why the position size I was going for was only $4k
Sorry, hurting for time tonight; will try to add fundamental data on the new stocks tomorrow.
|
|
