Yclept Trades

[yclept]

I've been throwing my trade information all over the place. Some of it on Rovo's thread, some of it on the pick of the week, some of it on my 5/15/50 thread. So I thought I'd try to consolidate it all in one place. I don't know that anyone really cares, but I'll do it for awhile anyway. I can't guarantee that I'll catch every one -- sometimes life gets in the way of posting, but I'll try.

First one: bought URA 300 @ 13.74; this is the same ETF that I sold this morning @ 14.95 after having bought it yesterday at 13.36.

The devil made me do it!

[Deleted]

Thx for sharing

[yclept]

Bought another 200 QID @ 58.1162 -- obviously not the best price of the day. This takes holdings of QID to 400 sh.

All I'm trying to do is balance out the losses being incurred by my remaining long positions, all of which are deep value stocks (P/Es between 5 and 10, PEGs below 1). This morning almost all of the portfolio was showing green; now except for the short positions it's showing almost all red. This tells me that a lot of babies are getting thrown out with the bathwater. For the time being, I'd prefer to hold on to the value longs I now have and try to balance losses they experience with the negatively biased ETF. If the market turns upward abruptly I'll be able to quickly the QID -- a lot faster than buy back all the deep value positions.
At least that's the plan. But then we all know by now what Robbie Burns said about plans!

[yclept]

Okay, a re-cap of today.
Sold: URA DXJ GLL TBT POL
Bought: QID (doubled existing position) JJG COW URA (yes, bought back a stock I sold earlier in the day!).
That's a pretty active day for me. I reckon the broker's happy if no one else. My purpose in life is probably to keep the broker happy!

[yclept]

Sold all QID -- the worm turned with a vengeance this morning. Reckon we were due for an over-sold bounce.

[yclept]

bought COP @ 76
bought NC @ 97.42

That's probably about it for me today. I have promises to keep and miles to go before I sleep. Weatherman says it's going to be dry today, then we're back to a week or so of steady rain. Carpe diem.

[yclept]

Bought 200 FAS; I plan to sell this later today, one way or the other. I'm just trying to leverage some gains out of what I see as a temporary oversold bounce.

[yclept]

bought HSOL @ 7.2
bought WHR @ 79.88
sold COP @ 76.87
sold URA @ 14.701
sold FAS @ 29.3317; lost $7.32 after commissions! I guess it was worth a try, but don't want to hold this thing over the weekend. As often happens, all of the bounce came at the open and the rest of the day has been meandering lower on what looks to me to be pretty low volume.

[yclept]

sold VSH @ 17.001
sold WHR @ 80.65
bought FLL @ 3.7
bought EUO @ 17.8799
sold COW @ 30.98
sold JJG @ 51.8701
bought JADE @ 3.68 -- reckon we'll see what earnings announcement tomorrow morning shows.
bought GLL (2x short gold) @ 26.9799

Some of my rational for the short on Europe and gold is as follows: There’s an old saying that goes roughly as follows: If you owe the bank $1 million and can’t pay you have a problem. However if you owe the banks $ 1 billion dollars, the bank has a problem. Think Ireland, Greece, Portugal (soon), maybe Spain and Italy. It's the gift that just keeps giving! Gold? Well, gold is trash, how can one not take a bet against gold after it's recent run up? That, and Japan is going to be raising cash by selling assets; gold will be one of them.

bought TWM (2x short Russel) @ 45.62 -- the worm appears to be turning today; tried to get this down around 44, but doesn't look like I was going to get filled down there.

[yclept]

sold ARW @ 40.5801 -- fell off the screen that picked it. Bought on 3/3 @ 39.75
I'm not replacing this with the tickers that kicked it off the screen (POL, VSH) at this time. My bias is short, so I'll let this sale remain cash for the time being.
sold NC @ 97.14; bought 3/17 @ 97.42 -- fell off screen; not replacing.

[yclept]

sold HRBN @ 17.84
sold short LO @ 90.7938 -- oh, oh!

[yclept]

bought to cover LO @ 94.2082 sigh; that plan gang agley.
sold TWM @ 44.0301
sold FLL; 100@ 3.76, 1500@ 3.75; fell off screen that picked it; not replacing right now.

bought CVVT @ 5.0899 different screen, so not really a replacement for FLL above.

[yclept]

Bought SOL @ 9.36; I had placed a limit order over the weekend hoping to pick it up at 8.85 or so, but it gapped up a lot this morning and it became clear that I was very unlikely to get filled down there.
Bought TAN @ 8.6 -- a solar ETF; it had gapped up also, but I guess I just wanted to get more fully exposed to the sun.

[yclept]

Bought LGL @ 13.94
I'm not really looking to increase my exposure (currently about 60% cash), but sometimes when wandering about in the forest one comes across a just-downed elk where the rightful owners (probably the wolves) are having a serious argument with a big Griz over who is going to take possession going forward, and the argument is keeping them all fully occupied with one-another. Well, when that happens, it would be foolish not to carve off a small hunk of back strap before continuing on one's way.

Sold GLL @ 27.3001; I still think gold is horribly overvalued, but the state of the world probably makes a play against it unwise right now -- figured I better get out of GLL with my scalp still intact.

Sold JADE @ 4.2501

[yclept]

Sold BG @ 71.9; this hit what was an above-market gtc sell order that had been in place for awhile. It is still on the screen that picked it -- I might buy it back, especially if it drops back some.
Bought VSH @ 17.9499
Bought FLL @ 3.81; popped back on the screen; sold a few days ago @ 3.75 & 3.76; sometimes that's the way it happens on the Oregon Trail, you have to back track and find the best route.

[yclept]

Bought TSTC @ 6.77

[IPAfan]

Have you closed all your shorts on gold Yclept? I've felt that gold is overvalued for a while, but I've made a big mistake in selling my gold investment way too soon. I had a concentrated position in gold at $250 an ounce and sold out at about $750 avg. I fear that the gold bulls could push gold much higher especially if we have massive inflation.

One thing I've considered is to short gold, but then to go long on AAB.TO which is a company that takes activist positions in junior gold miners and currently trades at only about 60% of NAV. The company also has some gold royalties directly. I've been watching this company since it was .45 a share, and now its at .84, but still very cheap.

[yclept]

reply 13 where I closed the last venture into GLL was the last time I was trying to short gold. That one made me a little since I bought on 3/21 for 26.9799 and sold 3/29 for 27.3001.
The only thing short I've got going now is EUO which is down a slight amount since I bought it (also bought 3/21 @ 17.8799; closed today @ 17.85).
I'm mostly cash (almost 2/3) right now.

In the last 3 months I've taken three shots at GLL, and never made enough to be worth the risk.

Position Bought Price Cost Sold Price Value Net %Change Commish

200 03/21/11 26.98 5402.98 03/29/11 27.3 5453.02 50.04 0.93% 14

200 02/23/11 27.9 5587 03/16/11 28.03 5599.02 12.02 0.22% 14

200 01/20/11 30.77 6160.98 02/01/11 30.97 6187.02 26.04 0.42% 14



Total 88.1

[rovo]

I also picked up a little TSTC today. I looked at it when yclept posted his buy and although it is risky there doesn't appear to be a lot of downside potential to it. It is just a very small position for me.

[yclept]

Bought CVVT @ 4.13; added to existing position that was bought 3/25 @ 5.09 -- which obviously demonstrates the first buy is down a significant percentage. The liars (whoops, I guess that's actually spelled "lawyers") have press releases reminding folks they have to join the class action suit pretty soon if they want to be represented. I'm pretty sure that is a lie in and of itself. To partake of any court-ordered class action remedy, all one needs to be is a member of the class -- one does not have to be specifically represented by any of the vultures arguing the case. Maybe Beerfan will read this and correct me if I'm wrong.
Anyway, this isn't a new liar attack, it's only a reminder by the liars that their attack is going to begin someday and if one wants to be affiliated with one firm versus some other, now's the time they want you to act. From what I've been able to find, this suit is more frivolous than the majority of such actions are. I've never seen one where the settlement awards to class members has represented anything worthwhile. But the liars seem to do just fine -- the court carves out their hunk of flesh before anyone who actually lost money gets anything. Anyway, this lawsuit looks groundless to me, but being filed against a Chinese company, the plaintiff's liars are probably figuring they could easily get a xenophobic jury that would find heavily in their favor -- the defense liars will have added incentive to settle. After all, the settlement only has to be enough to give a few cents on the dollar to the plaintiffs and big gobs of greasy money to the law firms. It's bound to be cheaper for the defendants to settle.
The funniest thing is that in the last three years most of the price losses came after the liars announced their various timelines and intentions regarding the class action suit -- which is to say they seem to be more the cause of the recent price trouble than they are remedy.

[yclept]

I don't intend to post any more updates to this thread. Right now I have only 11 positions left and a large percentage of cash. I have qualms about the safety of posting on (and for that matter even reading) Proboards. Until I find something to assuage my concern, my activity here will be minimal.

[Bluerobin]

Yclept, I for one would appreciate your insight. Please resume when you feel safe.

[yclept]

I think this is about all I've done since last updating:
yesterday bought ZSL (2x short silver) @ 21.36 -- only bought about $4k worth of it.
Today I sold:
FLL @ 4.08 & 4.09
HSOL @ 7.37
SOL @ 9.90
Yesterday I sold:
TAN @ 8.725

This puts me down to 7 holdings, 2 of which are short (EUO & ZSL). I'm roughly 71% cash. I pretty much want out until some of the government shutdown stuff is resolved. I don't like earnings season, which is upon us. As a general rule I like to go away in May.
I think silver is just way too high. I think it's time to stick a fork in Europe, it's done. I guess that explains the early short positions. Even though it's the third year of the presidential cycle, I still think it may be a good idea to go away in May, and this gets me a lot of the way down that path.
If I'm wrong, I can always buy back in when it looks safer to me. I can let the 5-15-50 moving averages make the call. Assuming we go up from here, I'll be a little late, but I won't be sorry.
I don't see much hope for this economy with Washington focused solely on budget cuts (and all of that on the smallest parts of the pie), but if they want a big one, I would suggest getting rid of the TSA -- bunch of useless bastards that have attained "holy-cow" status in this paranoid society. We need an equitable tax system with much higher revenues coming from the rich folks who now pay almost nothing a lot more than we need cuts in vital programs for the middle class and the poor.

[soycapital]

I enjoy reading your thread too YCLEPt, even if you can be kind of touchy and grumpy sometimes.

[yclept]

Bought DEER @ 6.64

Edit: So far so good!

[yclept]

"Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six hundred."

Having charged into the valley of death riding DEER, and finding little else I want to venture into, I picked up DGW (only 1300 @ 3.2) and have a limit order in place to pick up PUDA (800 @ 5.31). Both are plays (as was DEER) that assume Alfred Little is a lying sack of sh_t; alfredlittle.com/. It's just a gut feeling I have, but DEER is suing him along with some Seeking Alpha bloggers who parroted his reports. Looking at Little's above website, it doesn't pass the sniff test for me that a person who purports himself to be a balanced Chinese analyst can find only negative things to report, and makes (as far as I can tell) all of his money shorting the very stocks he tears down (though I'm sure his short positions are all well established before he invites the rest of the world to pile-on). I guess I'd call that and drain to distinguish it from the long-side equivalent of pump and .
Funny, the last trade on PUDA was actually a penny lower than my bid, but I've got all-or-nothing on my puny 800 share order to assure I don't incur commission on some rally small smattering of this stock -- it seems the volume is drying up tremendously compared to Friday's volume (162K shares so far today versus 24.07M last friday). Okay by me, I don't care whether it fills or not.
I think these plays are mostly just to stave-off boredom and an attempt to keep up my saber skills:

"Flash'd all their sabres bare,
Flash'd as they turn'd in air,
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army, while
All the world wonder'd:
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right thro' the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reel'd from the sabre stroke
Shatter'd and sunder'd.
Then they rode back, but not
Not the six hundred." -- Alfred, Lord Tennyson

Funny how in the relatively innocent times of the Crimean war that the loss of roughly 300 out of 600 men due to an inept order would be considered significant and have a poem written regarding it. Only 5 years later, the War Between the States would show the world killing on a scale to make the charge of the light brigade nothing worth noting. It was all good practice for they types of losses WWI would cause -- day after day after day.

[yclept]

Bought CSCO @ 17.529; der Teufel hat mich dazu gezwungen.

Sold DEER @ 7.58

[yclept]

Sold DGW @ 3.41; bought on 4/11 @ 3.2 -- so much for the light brigade, at least for now.

Bought HSOL @ 7.0295

Bought GLW @ 19.3799

Bought SOL @ 9.38

[yclept]

Bought TBT @ 37.5

Everything I've bought the last several days is losing money. Nothing has changed with the stocks themselves that make them something that I wouldn't buy right now -- in fact, they are better values now than they were when I bought them. But still, recent buys have me almost 60% invested -- a week or so ago I was only about 25% invested.
It's the market itself that's falling out of bed. If this doesn't rectify itself soon, I'll be selling all this stuff and crawling off into the corner to snarl and lick my wounds.

[yclept]

sold LGL @ 12.93 bought 3/29 @ 13.94, so 7-1/2% loss; fell off the screen that picked it.