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Post by yclept on Jun 30, 2011 10:54:38 GMT -5
Sold HES @ 74.39
Sold YTEC @ 3.28
So I won't bother posting any fundamentals for these two; suffice to say they fell off the screen that picked them.
Bought GME @ 26.1424
Ratios & Statistics - Trailing Twelve Months
P/E 9.48
PEG 1.18
Price/Revenue 0.38
Price/Cash Flow 6.22
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.22
ROA 8.71%
ROE 14.55%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 1.25
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.08
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter
Short Interest Information
Current Month 34.09 Mil
Previous Month 35.73 Mil
Short Interest Ratio 11.28 Day
Bought ARW @ 40.335
Ratios & Statistics - Trailing Twelve Months
P/E 8.78
PEG 0.66
Price/Revenue 0.23
Price/Cash Flow 7.42
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.31
ROA 6.21%
ROE 16.51%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 1.60
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.58
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter
Short Interest Information
Current Month 2.36 Mil
Previous Month 2.57 Mil
Short Interest Ratio 2.18 Day
Bought BBSI @ 14.48
Ratios & Statistics - Trailing Twelve Months
P/E 9.97
PEG 0.33
Price/Revenue 0.51
Price/Cash Flow 9.05
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.44
ROA 7.26%
ROE 14.75%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 1.57
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.00
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter
Short Interest Information
Current Month 0.23 Mil
Previous Month 0.20 Mil
Short Interest Ratio 9.77 Day
Bought BRFS @ 17.14
Ratios & Statistics - Trailing Twelve Months
P/E 20.96
PEG 0.99
Price/Revenue 0.98
Price/Cash Flow 11.77
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.69
ROA 4.28%
ROE 8.28%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 1.87
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.52
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter
Short Interest Information
Current Month 2.54 Mil
Previous Month 3.20 Mil
Short Interest Ratio 0.64 Day
This last one may prove to be a mistake. The P/E is higher than I like to venture. It goes x/d today by 21 cents, but since buying it I read somewhere that one had to own it the day before the x/d date to get the dividend. Kind of weird -- if so it'll be the first time I've been burned by something like that, and kind of makes me wonder what x/d is supposed to mean!
At any rate, I've been wanting to pick up something in Brazil other than the ETFs or PBR which are the instruments that get hyped all over the place. The Bovespa has been kind of low lately and I think if any country bucks the downward trend I expect this summer, Brazil is most likely to do so. There's also something going on regarding Russia banning all meat imports that I'll be looking into further. This may not be the Brazilian stock I end up wanting to own -- I'll keep researching.
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Post by yclept on Jul 1, 2011 9:31:37 GMT -5
Sold ARW @ 41.38
Sold BBSI @ 14.33
Sold TSTC: 100 @ 6.22, 900 @ 6.2
Bought HES @ 73.84
Ratios & Statistics - Trailing Twelve Months
P/E 9.86
PEG 2.26
Price/Revenue 0.71
Price/Cash Flow 5.21
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.42
ROA 7.64%
ROE 15.82%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 1.28
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.31
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter
Bought WSTL @ 3.5794
P/E 3.71
PEG 0.30
Price/Revenue 1.30
Price/Cash Flow 3.47
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.54
ROA 42.04%
ROE 55.01%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 3.99
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.00
Bought RDS/A @ 70.72
P/E 9.34
PEG 0.84
Price/Revenue 0.57
Price/Cash Flow 5.66
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.42
ROA 7.44%
ROE 15.84%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 1.15
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.27
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Post by yclept on Jul 5, 2011 10:50:19 GMT -5
The sells below dropped off the screen that picked them. They buys are replacements on the screen. Overall these changes moved me further into cash (right now about 71% cash).
Sold ART @ 11.6; got stuck for the time being with 100 shares as the price dropped below my limit sell before all of my shares sold; bought originally @ 11.26 over a week ago.
Sold RDS/A @ 72.23; bought last Friday @ 70.72
Sold HES @ 75.42; bought last Friday @ 73.84
Sold GME @ 27.0019; bought last Thursday @ 26.1424
Bought LYB @ 39.01
Ratios & Statistics - Trailing Twelve Months
P/E 2.06
PEG 0.24
Price/Revenue 0.51
Price/Cash Flow 1.91
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.74
ROA NA%
ROE NA%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 2.51
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.48
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter
Bought MDCO @ 16.86
Ratios & Statistics - Trailing Twelve Months
P/E 7.56
PEG 0.76
Price/Revenue 2.03
Price/Cash Flow 7.27
Price/Book (MRQ) 2.35
ROA 26.89%
ROE 37.36%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 3.91
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.00
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter
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Post by yclept on Jul 6, 2011 10:02:55 GMT -5
Sold STM @ 10.2
Sold LYB @ 39.841
Sold WSTL @ 3.58 (took 13 transactions to get rid of only 1700 shares -- as I recall it was almost as hard to buy yesterday!)
These dropped from the screen that picked them. All of these are now selling lower than I sold for.
These sells take me to a bit over 88% cash. When my best screens can't find stuff to buy, I don't. What the heck, cash doesn't feel like a bad place to be in a market that looks as squirrelly to me as this one does.
Sold ART @ 11.58; got rid of the 100 shares that didn't sell yesterday at my limit of 11.6
Bought 3000 NBY @ 1.03 -- crap-shoot! My ports have been sorely lacking in junk since the demise of EGMI. Every port ought to have a little junk.
Fundamentals are terrible:
P/E NA
PEG NA
Price/Revenue 2.82
Price/Cash Flow NA
Price/Book (MRQ) 2.67
ROA -30.27%
ROE -44.18%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 3.46
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.00
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter
And they recently diluted existing shareholders with the private placement of additional shares with warrants. But then, somebody bought that placement for 1.11, so either I'm jumping into a ship of fools or somebody else thinks there might be some longer term potential here.
NovaBay Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NovaBay) is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, which is engaged in the discovery and development of synthetic anti-infective product candidates to treat and prevent a range of infections, without developing resistance, in hospital and non-hospital environments. The Company+IBk-s Aganocide compounds are synthetic forms of N-chlorinated antimicrobial molecules, which are anti-infective molecules produced by white blood cells when defending the body against invading pathogens when used in topical applications. NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Canada, Inc. and DermaBay, Inc. are the Company+IBk-s wholly owned subsidiaries.
With more and more common infections developing resistance to antibiotics, there may be eventually remunerative potential here -- or not. I've fished these waters before and caught a lot of old boots and diseased-looking fish. That's why the position is as small as it is.
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Post by yclept on Jul 7, 2011 17:50:52 GMT -5
Bought QLD @ 95.6 after hours;
Trying for 300 shares; so far 200 filled.
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rovo
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Joined: Dec 18, 2010 14:20:19 GMT -5
Posts: 3,628
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Post by rovo on Jul 7, 2011 18:13:54 GMT -5
Market has been strong but appears toppy. Odds are on a downward move in the near term to bring stuff back within the Bollinger Bands. That said, I've seen it breakout and continue upward.
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Post by yclept on Jul 7, 2011 19:17:23 GMT -5
The other hundred shares filled. "Market has been strong but appears toppy. Odds are on a downward move in the near term to bring stuff back within the Bollinger Bands. That said, I've seen it breakout and continue upward." I agree, and that's why I've been so heavily cash for a little while. Which, of course, means I've been losing opportunity. My moving average indicators are not fully signaling "buy"; 5 is above 15, but 15 is below 50. And my best screens are pulling very few tickers and those sporadically, so I haven't had anything by way of individual tickers to buy. Actually from an old retired guy's point of view, I've been doing alright lately in that even the few stocks I own have been increasing in value at a rate higher than my living expenses. That type of thinking is more and more creeping into my hell-bound for leather normal attitude. But, preliminary indications are that the employment numbers will be positive tomorrow, which I think will give at least a one-day bounce up. I plan to play this QLD card very close to the vest and will drop it like a hot tamale if things begin to go wrong (and maybe take a position with its evil twin QID). If we get a decent bounce tomorrow, I may just take the money and run at the end of the day. Futures right now are slightly negative, so I may have picked the exact top making this an ill-advised move. |
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rovo
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Joined: Dec 18, 2010 14:20:19 GMT -5
Posts: 3,628
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Post by rovo on Jul 7, 2011 19:33:33 GMT -5
We never really know how a particular move is going to play out. All we can do is give it our best guess based upon our accumulated knowledge.
I agree, a lot hinges on the employment report.
I'm in the exact opposite position from you as I have less than 2% cash. This is low for me and I can't even make any day-trade plays because of lack of cash. On the up-side, most of my holdings are rising (except ZSL) and I'll be trying to get out of some swing trades at or near the top of this cycle.
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Post by yclept on Jul 7, 2011 19:46:49 GMT -5
I guess just to be mean, I'll mention that I still have my GTC order in for ZSL at $14.50. But then, I have no real expectation that it will fill anytime soon. Still, if we have some calamitous event happen and everybody runs scared, silver might take another run for the top and I might just be able to pick up ZSL. At least having the order in place keeps it on my radar.
With precious metals, I think it's not a question of "what", but rather of "when". They are Deadalus and need only to fly closer to the sun.
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rovo
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Joined: Dec 18, 2010 14:20:19 GMT -5
Posts: 3,628
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Post by rovo on Jul 7, 2011 19:54:55 GMT -5
Yes, you have mentioned your standing order for ZSL a few times. It doesn't bother me in the least because I would probably double or triple my play if it got to 14ish. My ZSL play was poor but I've done worse. I don't expect every trade to be a winner.
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Post by yclept on Jul 7, 2011 21:59:27 GMT -5
And, I trust you know I'm just ribbing you.
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rovo
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Joined: Dec 18, 2010 14:20:19 GMT -5
Posts: 3,628
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Post by rovo on Jul 7, 2011 22:03:04 GMT -5
I assumed you were but it doesn't really matter because it was a poor trade on my part. Trust me, I don't take offense when the other person is correct.  |
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rovo
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 18, 2010 14:20:19 GMT -5
Posts: 3,628
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Post by rovo on Jul 8, 2011 7:40:42 GMT -5
Houston, We may have a problem with QLD.  |
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Post by yclept on Jul 8, 2011 8:38:50 GMT -5
sold QLD early market 200 @ 93.25; 100 @ 93.24. Looks like I should have waited for the open and watch, as It's now 75 cents higher than I sold.
Oh well, reckon it's beans and rice for the next couple of weeks. Not so bad for me, since I like beans and rice, but it's mighty unpopular with Mr. Ruff.
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Post by yclept on Jul 8, 2011 11:18:56 GMT -5
Yep, ADP had me fooled. I should have known that a furtherance of the upward streak was pretty improbable, that little bump down on 7/5 was not a significant pause.
No big deal, I'm back to mostly cash and awaiting the signals to go short with a vengeance. That's the next period during which I expect to make some serious money.
The $700 was a fair charge for the thrill of the chase I had last night when I put this trade on with high hopes! For now I go back to my slogging through the mire picking up smaller diamonds as they squeeze through my toes (as the majority of this thread has illustrated).
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Post by yclept on Jul 11, 2011 9:17:52 GMT -5
Sold MDCO @ 16.4501 and 16.44; bought 7/5 @ 16.86; dropped from the screen that selected it. This takes me to roughly 85% cash.
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Post by yclept on Jul 11, 2011 11:10:02 GMT -5
Bought 200 TYP @ 20.1099
Probably premature in entering this (none of my moving averages signals are calling yet to go short) -- that's part of why it's only $4k. Hopefully it'll be something fun to watch, and I always watch with much greater intensity when I've got a little skin in the game! Hey, the position is already up $8.02, so it has covered the "buy" commission.
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Post by yclept on Jul 12, 2011 9:03:14 GMT -5
Bought AEIS @ 13.05; dropping like a rock since then; seemed like a good idea at the time, but I'm beginning to think there's no such thing as a long position that's a good idea right now, regardless of the apparent undervalued situation:
Ratios & Statistics - Trailing Twelve Months
P/E 8.57
PEG 3.36
Price/Revenue 1.09
Price/Cash Flow 7.25
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.45
ROA 15.43%
ROE 19.84%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 3.98
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.00
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter
Short Interest Information
Current Month 1.66 Mil
Previous Month 1.85 Mil
Short Interest Ratio 4.86 Day
Maybe those 5 days worth of shorts will decide to cover and pull this chestnut out of the fire.
Sold TYP @ 20.55
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Post by yclept on Jul 13, 2011 8:56:59 GMT -5
Sold CADC @ 1.84 Bought: ASMI @ 33.52 and 33.53 AEIS @ 12.96 WSTL @ 3.4955 TELNY @ 45.27 MDCO @ 16.5952 Sorry, no time for details; these all are the result of changes in screening results. Whoops, looks like I already bought AEIS yesterday; now I've got two positions of it for no good reason at all! I'll lay that at the doorstep of senile dementia, for convenience if no other reason. Reckon I've become a slave to a mechanical system. I'll deal with the double position later. I'll be glad when this cold drizzly weather warms up. Last few days we've been lucky to get into the low 70s. BRFS (post 90 above) has taken a nice jump up today after a favorable settlement of an anti-trust merger issue they've had for a couple of years. Trading was halted this morning until the settlement was announced. Since the announcement, it's up about 11% on the day: www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/13/markets-brazil-brasilfoods-idUSE5E7HT00120110713?feedType=RSS&feedName=governmentFilingsNews&rpc=43 |
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rovo
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 18, 2010 14:20:19 GMT -5
Posts: 3,628
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Post by rovo on Jul 14, 2011 7:48:28 GMT -5
ZSL has broken below your $14.50 number and is currently at $14.38. It appears to heading substantially lower.
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Post by yclept on Jul 14, 2011 9:02:05 GMT -5
Yep; strange things are happening! You'll be glad to hear that my limit order for F @ 1.87 seems to be in no danger of filling ;-)
My screens are pulling me back into this market, something I'm not particularly pleased about. Cash is down to about 47% of port. Currently have 12 positions.
Bought:
ZSL @ 14.44
UUP @ 21.36
These were both limit orders previously in place that were hit this morning.
Bought KLIC @ 10.0289
Ratios & Statistics - Trailing Twelve Months
P/E 4.53
PEG 0.34
Price/Revenue 0.85
Price/Cash Flow 4.00
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.83
ROA 28.11%
ROE 53.02%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 3.82
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.26
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter
Growth Rates
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Revenue 87.96% 27.21% 9.91%
EPS 559.43% 91.99% 29.91%
Dividend NA% NA% NA%
Short Interest Information
Current Month 4.36 Mil
Previous Month 4.64 Mil
Short Interest Ratio 2.57 Day
Bought STM @ 9.3199
Ratios & Statistics - Trailing Twelve Months
P/E 9.03
PEG 20.20
Price/Revenue 0.80
Price/Cash Flow 4.47
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.02
ROA 4.77%
ROE 12.64%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 2.12
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.22
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter
Growth Rates
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Revenue 15.05% 1.14% 3.10%
EPS 269.17% NA% 25.76%
Dividend 133.33% -2.27% 18.47%
Short Interest Information
Current Month 8.38 Mil
Previous Month 9.78 Mil
Short Interest Ratio 5.17 Day
Just put in a limit order to sell AEIS at slightly over market -- whoops it just executed; sold AEIS @ 13.04
Sold BRFS @ 18.86
I'll be watching this for re-entry (or some other Brazilian stock). For now, I think I'll let the dust settle from the favorable announcement yesterday.
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Post by yclept on Jul 15, 2011 9:34:06 GMT -5
Bought FRO @ 11.8099 -- quick kill screen; probably won't own for long.
Ratios & Statistics - Trailing Twelve Months
P/E 9.64
PEG 0.88
Price/Revenue 0.89
Price/Cash Flow 3.07
Price/Book (MRQ) 1.24
ROA 2.74%
ROE 12.53%
Current Ratio (MRQ) 1.25
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 3.67
NOTE: MRQ - Most Recent Quarter
Growth Rates
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Revenue -3.64% -3.58% -4.87%
EPS -8.12% -35.04% -23.55%
Dividend 122.22% -37.77% -27.67%
Short Interest Information
Current Month 9.68 Mil
Previous Month 6.35 Mil
Short Interest Ratio 4.32 Day
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Post by yclept on Jul 18, 2011 9:35:26 GMT -5
Bought QID @ 49.1581 -- going cautiously short.
Bought SSG @ 54.7564 -- going less cautiously short!
Sold:
WSTL @ 3.3601; 4.2% loss
TELNY @ 44.55; 1.8% loss
MDCO @ 15.7501 and 15.7596; ~5.3% loss
These stocks dropped from the value screen that picked them. I am not buying any replacements the screen is pulling as I move back again to short and cash.
I've been getting whipsawed lately by following faster signals. I accept that as a cost of not being stuck with a bunch of positions when they get flushed.
I still have some long positions that haven't yet dropped from the value screen and are losers: ASMI, FRO, KLIC, STM -- I will kill them as the screen changes and will not replace until moving averages go back to "buy". Oh, and then there's FRO -- it was from a screen that was supposed to produce quick kills. It hasn't been quick (and it's not really killing me yet!), so I didn't it yet. It's still on the screen.
Then there's the "all-sheets-to-the-wind" gamble I took a little while ago NBY. It's a small position, and is actually up a little since I bought it; I'll probably ride this one into the ground or to unimaginable riches!
Finally there are the outliers: ZSL, UUP, TBT. I consider TBT and ZSL to be plays against the current insanity. TBT and ZSL have torn hunks out of my hide. UUP is actually a play into the insanity, and it's up a little. Insanity rules!
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rovo
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Joined: Dec 18, 2010 14:20:19 GMT -5
Posts: 3,628
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Post by rovo on Jul 18, 2011 9:41:38 GMT -5
I know the feeling.  |
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Post by mtntigger on Jul 18, 2011 9:46:15 GMT -5
yclept - What screen do you use? Are you one of the ones who uses stockcharts too?
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Post by yclept on Jul 18, 2011 10:01:32 GMT -5
What the heck, one more short: bought EPV @ 49.7899
SBS,
I use StockScreen123; the screens are ones that I have written. The URL to their home page is: stockscreen123.com
It is a paid service (but only $15/mo) and the best screener I've found. I believe they have a "guest" status that allows one to save a screen or two. It has a very complete set of screening parameters; performs arithmetic calculations one writes relative to any of the parameters, and has a backtesting capability that goes back about 10 years.
The learning curve is steeper than for most screeners, but I think easily worth the time. They have a decent set of PDF lessons to download and quite a few "canned" screens that one can use as exemplars. There are two modes of writing screening parameters, one of which (a "wizard") is very much simpler (but less comprehensive) than the other.
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Post by mtntigger on Jul 18, 2011 10:08:55 GMT -5
Thanks yclept! I'll look into that; I'm getting tired of flying by the seat of my pants. |
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Post by yclept on Jul 19, 2011 10:46:45 GMT -5
I guess misery loves company, so I thought I'd link this: www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-19/soros-quantum-holding-75-cash-leads-hedge-funds-baffled-by-global-crises.htmlYesterday morning I moved more cash to the short side and dumped a few long positions. This took me down to about 60% cash. Then I spent the rest of the day at the hospital where my step-mother had to have some outpatient surgery, so missed the run-up that seems to have augured in today's opening rise. So while sitting here licking my wounds and maintaining my mechanically-dictated new positions, I found some solace in the fact that I don't seem to be alone in finding this market particularly tricky to negotiate. I guess if one is in the same boat as Soros's hedge fund (albeit not as high a percentage in cash today as I was Friday), one is probably not entirely wrong in asset allocation, despite the travails of the last 24 hours! As Chief Dan George as Lone Watie said in "The Outlaw Josey Wales": "We thought about it for a long time, "Endeavor to persevere." And when we had thought about it long enough, we declared war on the Union." I shall endeavor to persevere -- reckon even with this lower cash allocation it's impossible for everything to go to hell in a hand cart. Jamie: I wish we had time to bury them fellas. Josey Wales: To hell with them fellas. Buzzards gotta eat, same as worms. |
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Post by yclept on Jul 20, 2011 15:10:51 GMT -5
Sold UUP @ 21.3119 and 21.31
I bought last Thursday at 21.36, so a small loss.
I bought on the belief that the USD would be sought as a more stable currency than the Euro. Though it is beginning to bounce off of a multi-month low, I've decided I don't want to carry the risk. I really don't see the US as any more stable than Europe. They are both awful. So I took this money out of harm's way (though granted, the value it represents is still sitting in dollars and at virtually zero interest rate, but it's liquid now and ready to pile into more short positions when this market augers in).
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Post by yclept on Jul 21, 2011 10:14:32 GMT -5
Sold SSG @ 51.03; -6.5%
Sold QID @ 46.5219; -4%
Sold EPV @ 44.1801; -9.8%I was whipsawed on the last sell signal (from which these short positions were generated). They were double position sizes, so roughly $12k each. For now this money is going to stay in cash awaiting the actual cross of 4 above 14 at which point my long screens will officially start pulling tickers again. This takes me to about 72% cash; the only short position I still hold is ZSL, which is really more of a synthetic long position on stocks. I should have just "gone away in May" as I've lost about 2-3% of the overall portfolio in the gyrations we've seen since then. But what would be the fun in that! "One, two! One, two! and through and through
The vorpal blade went snicker-snack!
He left it dead, and with its head
He went galumphing back." Sold FRO @ 11.9 -- this was supposed to have been a "quick kill", but I've had it since last Friday with no appreciable movement -- time to cut it loose. Bought EWZ @ 71.0785ETF Stats 07/16/11 (excl. div) EWZ Bench Last 69.68 1,325.84 1 Week -1.35% 0.62% 1 Month -2.20% 3.71% 3 Month -10.71% -0.34% 1 Year 3.64% 22.37%
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