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Post by danshirley on Jun 18, 2011 4:48:19 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jun 22, 2011 2:57:59 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jun 23, 2011 6:52:26 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jun 24, 2011 23:15:39 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jun 26, 2011 6:05:03 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jun 26, 2011 6:59:34 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jun 29, 2011 4:04:35 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jun 29, 2011 13:12:04 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jun 29, 2011 15:50:41 GMT -5
This message has been deleted.
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Post by yclept on Jun 29, 2011 16:02:24 GMT -5
I just loved the first comment below the article you linked: "What a tragic turn of events for a person who sacrificed the best years of his life and career for the noblest of causes that is investment banking. I shan't sleep a wink tonight." |
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Post by danshirley on Jun 30, 2011 3:55:53 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jul 3, 2011 13:48:20 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jul 6, 2011 0:53:28 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jul 6, 2011 2:06:45 GMT -5
This message has been deleted.
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Post by danshirley on Jul 7, 2011 13:55:49 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jul 8, 2011 12:52:25 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jul 8, 2011 21:19:46 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jul 10, 2011 4:21:43 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jul 11, 2011 14:40:25 GMT -5
ABT Update:
I chose to go for the Feb 45/40 put spread and was able to get filled at .48 although the bid was at .43.
Yield = 48/452 = 10.6% in 222 days or 17.4% annualized.
Prob = 93% with a maximum loss risk at 1%.
Expectation = .93(48) - .01(452) - .06(226) = 44.6 - 4.5 - 13.6 = 26.5
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Post by danshirley on Jul 14, 2011 18:38:09 GMT -5
GOOG: finance.yahoo.com/news/Google-2Q-results-show-apf-3065712468.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GOOG+Key+Statisticsstockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=googTrade: GOOG is exactly the kind of stock we stay far far away from, BUT the news and chart inspired me to see what is available: e.g. Sell the Jan '12 480 put and buy the Jan '12 460 put for a net credit of $190. Yield = 190/1810 = 10.5% in 191 days or 20.0% annualized. Prob = ?? Of course the big hole in this calculation is probability and expectation. When we are dealing with an ABT or SO we can make assumptions about the future distribution of stock prices looking like the past. That's where we get probability and expectation. With GOOG however, which is so much driven by market events, news events, and multiple other even harder to quantify issues this is no longer the case. I have no idea where GOOG pricing will be in the future and thus no way to quantify my risk and expectation. So I don't EVER do this kind of trade on a stock like GOOG. |
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Post by danshirley on Jul 15, 2011 5:57:39 GMT -5
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Post by yclept on Jul 15, 2011 10:21:35 GMT -5
"although if the CEO gets arrested and he actually does something at the company that might be a problem." Well, a quick look tells me that with the company in Phoenix, AZ and this house being in Coronado, CA, he couldn't have been much of a "hands-in-the-goo" type of guy. But then, for the company to be successful the founder/CEO probably has to transition at some point from the "tech" guy to the "strategic" dictator. Reckon one doesn't have to be pulse-at-the-carotid close in order to do the latter. I did find this comment pretty bizarre: "Investigators have not determined if Nalepa was a crime victim and have not ruled out suicide, said San Diego County sheriff's Capt. Tim Curran." I can't imagine how one hangs oneself with feet bound and hands tied behind one's back. Sounds like quite a party to me! |
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Post by danshirley on Jul 17, 2011 12:53:36 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jul 18, 2011 6:44:13 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jul 19, 2011 3:08:11 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jul 20, 2011 6:04:26 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jul 20, 2011 16:33:10 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jul 21, 2011 10:07:12 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jul 22, 2011 10:49:04 GMT -5
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Post by yclept on Jul 23, 2011 18:56:07 GMT -5
Dan, just put him on "ignore". True his thread will pop to the top now and again, but I always ignore it unless I see the last post is from someone I usually read (for example when you posted on his thread, I read it -- and had to take him off of "ignore" to see what drivel had caused you to post there).
I have no idea what that other mod au-pt thought he was doing deleting stuff over here. Your post, after all, had been there for days with little reaction even from the author of that thread until this guy stumbled by and had to exercise his delete clout. He's next to go on my "ignore" list.
As to Moonbeam, I guess she just has to keep everyone reminded that this is her rubber duck, and that the rest of us matter not. If you decide to post your options plays elsewhere (I know you were doing so at one time) and not here, I'd appreciate you leave me one of those seemingly now-forbidden links on one of my threads so I can check your moves now and then.
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