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Post by danshirley on Jan 28, 2011 15:59:23 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jan 29, 2011 11:00:47 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jan 30, 2011 0:38:35 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jan 30, 2011 18:26:35 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jan 31, 2011 22:20:08 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Feb 1, 2011 10:55:43 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Feb 3, 2011 16:11:01 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Feb 4, 2011 2:42:47 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Feb 8, 2011 7:36:23 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Feb 8, 2011 16:03:05 GMT -5
HSY: online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203926004576132121910239328.html?mod=BOL_hpp_dcRight now the May 50/55 bull call spread being recommended by J.P. Morgan would cost 1.55 or $155 per contract, and would yield a profit of $345 if HSY is above $55 on expiration in May. That's a 345/155 = 225% return. A bull put spread at the same strikes (sell the May 55 put and buy the May 50 put) would yield $338 on a risk of $162... which is almost identical numbers. A somewhat more conservative 47/42 bull put spread would yield $71/429 = 16% with a much higher probability. I'll do one of these tomorrow. UPDATE: After reviewing stats on HSY I have decided to pass on a position at this time. HSY is too expensive relative to other food companies. |
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Post by danshirley on Feb 9, 2011 3:47:22 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Feb 9, 2011 12:27:31 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Feb 9, 2011 21:54:29 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Feb 11, 2011 10:46:10 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Feb 11, 2011 14:03:20 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Feb 13, 2011 4:08:43 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Feb 15, 2011 9:19:19 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Feb 19, 2011 7:19:37 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Feb 22, 2011 1:59:34 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Feb 24, 2011 7:55:18 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Feb 25, 2011 15:04:48 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Feb 25, 2011 15:34:59 GMT -5
Updates: WMT We had a long standing 47.50/45 WMT put spread but WMT brought in some bad news which has dropped the stock. The drop is not near the spread as of yet but we closed the spread almost immediately with a loss of $28. It points out why we take such conservative positions even in a stock like WMT. finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WMT&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= |
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Post by danshirley on Feb 26, 2011 15:09:27 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Feb 28, 2011 12:19:16 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Mar 2, 2011 2:17:41 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Mar 3, 2011 5:56:13 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Mar 5, 2011 3:07:01 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Mar 7, 2011 16:21:32 GMT -5
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Post by audizz on Mar 7, 2011 18:20:54 GMT -5
Danshirley,
First off thanks so much for this thread, I really enjoy it. I'm very new to options but looking to learn more (already reading those sites you posted earlier) just curious but how often do you generally post your options trades? Once every two days or is it more just as they come?
Also would you mind telling us your general contract size that you buy and sell or is that too much info for us? Just out of curiosity, I understand if you don't want to tell us.
Thanks!
ZZ
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Post by danshirley on Mar 7, 2011 20:14:43 GMT -5
1. I tend to post trades as I find them.
2. I don't necessarily post every trade that occurs to me or every trade I do.
3. I would estimate that I actually do about half of the trades I post.
The reason I don't do the others is I may not be in a position to make every trade. e.g. I may have decided I am too far committed in a certain area and that I need to wait for some of my trades to expire before getting further committed in that area... or I may simply not have the cash available to make the trade... this is where we are getting into portfolio management as opposed to 'trade discovery'. Just because I have identified a trade that has positive expectancy doesn't mean I am in a position to actually make the trade.
4. Contract size is also an issue of portfolio management. My contract size is very variable and runs from 1 contract where I just want to be reminded of the trade to 10 contracts (or more) where I am looking to
get some real cash out of the trade. Some trades are much more certain than others,have different yields, carry different risks in different risk categories etc.
So I would have no real way of stating that a certain trade is a 2 contract trade and another trade is a 10 contract trade. It depends on your situation: Your existing risk profile and tolerance, your trading costs, your portfolio size, other trades you may be waiting on etc.
5. I think I have said before that my personal goal is to make 12-15% annually with VERY low risk. ('very low risk' needing further definition). I prefer lowering risk to raising potential yield...thus the 'conservative' designation.
I have to confess something else: A major reason I have for posting trades is to keep track of the trades that are available. I move about during the day and it's helpful for me to be able to look on line and remind myself of a certain trade... it's like an on-line notebook for my own trading. So I may identify a trade in the middle of the night and then later in the day when the market is open I am reminded of the trade and can decide to actually make it... or not.
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(all bets are highly speculative)