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Post by danshirley on Apr 29, 2011 2:11:08 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Apr 30, 2011 19:25:55 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on May 1, 2011 21:15:57 GMT -5
AMZN: The market has been running up for about 2 years: finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SPY&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=Thus it is a difficult time to find trades that will produce our desired return of between 12 - 15% annualized without compromising our safety requirements. Keeping safety first inevitably results in much lower returns. e.g. : finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMZN&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=c&c=Trade: Sell the Jan '12 100 put and buy the Jan '12 95 put for a net credit of $20 Yield = 20/480 = 4.2% in 264 days or 5.8% annualized Prob = 99% Expectation = .99(20) - .005(480) - .005(240) = 19.8 - 2.4 - 1.2 = 16.2 Still the 5.8% is better than most places to 'park' money, especially when we are still waiting for bonds to take a hit from those rising interest rates we keep hearing predicted. |
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Post by danshirley on May 3, 2011 9:40:01 GMT -5
SLV: finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=SLV&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=Trade: Buy the Oct 38 put and sell the Oct 35 put for a net debit of $106 ..SLV.............P/L ..30.............194 ..35.............194 ..37..............0 ..40............(106) ..45............(106) --------------------------------- yield (35 or less) 194/106 = 183% yield (40 or more) = -100% |
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Post by danshirley on May 3, 2011 12:15:32 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on May 4, 2011 1:40:54 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on May 5, 2011 11:26:26 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on May 6, 2011 1:52:02 GMT -5
SLV:
Three days ago we established a bear put spread on SLV for $106. Today I can exit the position for a profit of $80 or 80/106 = 75% in 3 days.
I don't usually play these high volatility high hype trades but I couldn't resist shorting that exponential rise in silver prices.
I have no idea where SLV is going from here but it's Friday and I don't want to risk the weekend... plus I want to get this trade off my books. I'll bail this AM.
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Post by yclept on May 6, 2011 2:30:54 GMT -5
Whoa, what a killing! And I thought I was doing well with my ZSL ETF (2x short Ag) 29% in two days. ZSL was actually up more in after-hours, so you might want to watch an hour or two tomorrow morning before closing the options. The market and individual stocks usually go down faster and harder than they go up. I think silver has a lot more grief ahead of it (but I'm also using a 4% trailing stop to try to guard against mania). I too fear the weekend, and may just sell tomorrow afternoon (assuming stop isn't hit earlier) and re-buy Monday if the trend continues.
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Post by danshirley on May 7, 2011 18:04:29 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on May 10, 2011 6:08:52 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on May 12, 2011 1:58:20 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on May 22, 2011 9:04:29 GMT -5
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Post by yclept on May 22, 2011 14:00:26 GMT -5
I hope your back is improving enough to hold off on the neurosurgeon. That's just an personal prejudice on my part based upon anecdotes from friends who had back surgery. I seems for every person I know whose back was noticeably improved, I know at least one who experienced nothing but a big bill with no improvement, and another who got the bill and whose back was worse afterwards.
I was lucky when the kid hit me on my motorcycle, catching me with his windshield then tossing me onto the ground at some 60-70 mph to slide for what seemed forever. My back hurt like hell (probably from breaking off the bike trunk) for a long time, and has never since been completely "right". But the MDs couldn't find anything they wanted to mess with, so I never had to make the decision.
Recently a friend was scheduled for some disk work (she teaches handicapped children and has been lifting the little fat balls into highchairs and such for some 30 years), but as the date for the surgery drew nearer, her back began to hurt less and less (psychological?). At any rate, she called off the surgery and her back has continued to improve (at least from the pain point-of-view).
Anyway, I was just wondering how it's coming along.
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Post by danshirley on May 23, 2011 3:39:58 GMT -5
Right now no one is talking about any surgery. I am wearing a body brace 24/7 and that is it.
I don't know wether to be thankful or sorry as the reason is there is no surgery that can be done that would be of any benefit. If that changes I'll have to make a decision, and right now I would lean toward no surgery. The deciding factor in such things is of course pain level. If my pain were to get bad enough and pain relief were offered with surgery I would probably change my tune. When you are in unbearable pain there is little you won't venture to get relief.
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Post by danshirley on May 28, 2011 6:05:52 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on May 30, 2011 5:59:40 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on May 31, 2011 1:26:17 GMT -5
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SVT
Well-Known Member
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 15:39:33 GMT -5
Posts: 1,491 
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Post by SVT on May 31, 2011 9:28:05 GMT -5
So do you or anyone else actually trade these options listed above?
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Post by kernelpanic on May 31, 2011 13:29:07 GMT -5
"So do you or anyone else actually trade these options listed above?"
Sure, I have. Not all but some when it makes sense for me. It depends on the trade. So far only a couple have been non-profitable and some have been very profitable. Even if I don't make a particular trade that Dan posts, in a number of cases it has brought something to my attention that I wasn't aware of and I've made a related/similar trade which was better for my situation. But then that also holds true for posts on other threads by people like Rovo, Yclept, Beerfan and others and is the general reason I'm here.
Obviously I can't speak for anyone else but I think it's probably safe to say Dan makes the highest percentage since they're his posts. But even he says he doesn't make all of them.
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Post by danshirley on May 31, 2011 16:08:09 GMT -5
No I don't make every trade I post here. Probably I average a little more than half. e.g. I made the MDT trade this AM at $34... but I have yet to make the JNJ trade.
I view each trade proposed as a matter for consideration... nothing more.
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Post by danshirley on Jun 1, 2011 10:58:10 GMT -5
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rovo
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 18, 2010 14:20:19 GMT -5
Posts: 3,628
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Post by rovo on Jun 1, 2011 12:21:33 GMT -5
So do you or anyone else actually trade these options listed above? I don't trade options like Dan does so I don't make these trades. But, as was mentioned previously, just looking at Dan's analysis causes me to look at that particular stock. Sometimes I like it, sometimes I don't. Dan, Any further improvements in your health? I can't imagine what you are going through and you have my good thoughts and wishes for a speedy and complete recovery. |
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Post by danshirley on Jun 6, 2011 6:24:43 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jun 8, 2011 4:12:17 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jun 9, 2011 13:34:44 GMT -5
43 years ago yesterday: If you look closely you can see me in this video. |
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Post by danshirley on Jun 13, 2011 16:46:31 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jun 14, 2011 2:31:45 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Jun 14, 2011 19:53:24 GMT -5
TLT dropped slightly today: finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TLT&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&c=following some unexpectedly positive retail sales data from Best Buy and from the commerce department. This has absolutely no effect on the trade we put up yesterday. Our short put at 80 is a long way away. Today you'll get $30 for that trade instead of the $27 we were getting yesterday. |
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Post by danshirley on Jun 17, 2011 13:06:45 GMT -5
This message has been deleted.
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