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Post by danshirley on Mar 8, 2011 3:52:39 GMT -5
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Post by audizz on Mar 8, 2011 17:42:45 GMT -5
Dan,
Would you mind explaining your methodology to us on the board? Or at least how you project future prices/decide which puts or calls to buy/sell?
I'd really appreciate it.
Thanks,
ZZ
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Post by danshirley on Mar 9, 2011 1:58:05 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Mar 10, 2011 2:23:36 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Mar 10, 2011 10:03:24 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Mar 14, 2011 3:47:42 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Apr 1, 2011 1:59:16 GMT -5
I have been out of the market and things in general since the last post. I fell and shattered my 1st lumbar vertebrae which put me in the hospital in a body brace and on major doses of pain killers. Luckily the market has been going up: finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SPY&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=%5EIXICand my portfolio has been rising also. Today I logged on for the first time and started to liquidate anything that looks even slightly questionable. I'll remain out of things for a few more weeks. My main interest in life has become when my next dose of Percocet is due. See you in a couple of weeks. |
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Post by yclept on Apr 1, 2011 9:08:12 GMT -5
Dan,
Sorry to hear and get well soon.
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rovo
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 18, 2010 14:20:19 GMT -5
Posts: 3,628
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Post by rovo on Apr 1, 2011 9:19:02 GMT -5
Dan, Yup. Most important to take care of yourself before the market. I hope all goes well for you.
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clarkrl2
Administrator
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:01 GMT -5
Posts: 6,057
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Post by clarkrl2 on Apr 3, 2011 12:08:20 GMT -5
Hope your feeling better soon
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Post by kernelpanic on Apr 4, 2011 0:43:05 GMT -5
Dan, having recently broken a bone for the first time in my life (though definitely not in the same league as a vertebra), I can sympathize. Do as you're told by the doctors and get well soon!
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Post by danshirley on Apr 8, 2011 20:07:07 GMT -5
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Post by yclept on Apr 8, 2011 21:40:50 GMT -5
Dan,
Good to see you "back". I've got a piano and some rolls of carpet that need moving -- you have the time to help with that?
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rovo
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 18, 2010 14:20:19 GMT -5
Posts: 3,628
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Post by rovo on Apr 9, 2011 8:48:35 GMT -5
Welcome back Dan and I hope you are feeling better. Your injury sounds nasty.
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Post by danshirley on Apr 10, 2011 10:57:27 GMT -5
Thanks to all for good wishes and solicitations.
I have never had an injury as serious as this and it is a good lesson in how lucky we all are to avoid such things.
I have a CAT scan scheduled for this Wed which will tell if things are healing as they need to.
I am trying to climb back to full functionality and hope to be fully recovered in four weeks or so.
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Post by danshirley on Apr 10, 2011 11:56:24 GMT -5
GE: online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203560404576228761681376744.html#articleTabs_panel_article%3D1Trade1: Sell the Jan 2013 17.50 put and buy the Jan 2013 15 put for a net credit of $76 Yield = 76/174 = 43.6% in 650 days or 24% annualized Prob = 65.4% Expectation = .654(75) - .20(174) - .15(87) = 49.1 - 34.8 - 13.1 = 1.2 Stock...............Yield............Prob > Price 15...................(174)............79% 16....................(74).............74% 17.....................27...............68% 18.....................76...............62% 19.....................76...............57% 20.....................76...............51% --------------------------------------------- Trade2: Sell the Jan 2013 15 put and buy the Jan 2013 12.5 put for a net credit of $48 Yield = 48/202 = 23.8% in 650 days or 13.3% annualized Prob = 79% Expectation = .79(48) - .07(202) - .14(101) = 37.9 - 14.4 - 14.1 = 9.4 It's interesting to see how trade2 with a lower yield actually has a higher expectation due to higher probability. This of course implies that traders choosing the more conservative trade will, over the long run, be more profitable than traders choosing the higher yield trade. |
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Post by danshirley on Apr 12, 2011 12:57:57 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Apr 14, 2011 2:09:03 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Apr 18, 2011 8:24:39 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Apr 19, 2011 15:58:40 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Apr 20, 2011 21:30:22 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Apr 21, 2011 4:29:59 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Apr 23, 2011 2:11:50 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Apr 23, 2011 13:26:38 GMT -5
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Post by yclept on Apr 23, 2011 14:41:36 GMT -5
Been meaning to ask how things with the back are progressing, both with respect to the medical evaluation as well as pain. I know from experience that medical folks will tell you your back is a model of excellence considerably before it feels that way.
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Post by danshirley on Apr 23, 2011 19:36:21 GMT -5
Thanks for asking. I went in to the hospital on Wed and got some radiology done. The whole process was so convoluted because of my inability to stand without a body brace etc. that I left without actually seeing anything myself or even getting any results on a CD that I and my wife could look at. It used to be when you went for x-rays you could walk out with a brown envelope with the films and pop them on an x-ray box and see what is what. Not how it works now. They put the images onto their computer network and there is no film developed at all. So now I have an appointment with the neurosurgeon and neurologist this coming Wednesday that will tell me how things are going. Subjectively I am pretty much at a stand still. I wear a body brace pretty much 100% of the time and am on a variety of pain meds. I am hoping to see some improvement in the next couple of weeks. BTW: it just struck me that maybe not everyone knows what CAT stands for: CAT = Computerized Axial Tomography video.about.com/orthopedics/CAT-Scans.htm(sorry about the ad) |
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Post by danshirley on Apr 25, 2011 11:12:56 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Apr 26, 2011 0:34:26 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Apr 27, 2011 22:50:22 GMT -5
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Post by danshirley on Apr 29, 2011 1:48:52 GMT -5
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