What Ever Happened To.........

[Steady As She Goes]

What ever happened to ............. EVERYBODY?!?!?!?! (including me!?!?!?)

Just thought I'd pop in here and wish eveyone a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mmhmm]

Hey, Steady!  Good to see you're still kickin' around!  Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and yours, as well! 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Same to you Steady.

[sunrnr]

What ever did happen to GEL, FrankQ, Jarrett1, Steady, kman, et al Moon, mmhmm I know you're still there watching the madness on other boards (and here I thought we had the monopoly here on MT).

[ՏՇԾԵԵʅՏɧ_LԹՏՏʅҼ]

Everyone you've asked about is still here. Some have posted as recently as yesterday, or a week ago - others about a month.

kman is the only one who's been noticeably absent.

[sunrnr]

Feb 3, 2014 13:32:16 GMT -5 ՏՇԾԵԵʅՏɧ_LԹՏՏʅҼ said:

Everyone you've asked about is still here. Some have posted as recently as yesterday, or a week ago - others about a month.

kman is the only one who's been noticeably absent.

oh ... ok.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

MT needs the breakroom thread back. It's been neglected on Investing Perspectives.. JMO

[frankq]

Hey, I'm still here, just busy as hell since I retired..........Go figure........

[mmhmm]

Feb 8, 2014 13:27:57 GMT -5 frankq said:

Hey, I'm still here, just busy as hell since I retired..........Go figure........

LOL!  This retirement is hard work, isn't it, frankq? 

[bimetalaupt]

Feb 8, 2014 15:14:29 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

Feb 8, 2014 13:27:57 GMT -5 frankq said:

Hey, I'm still here, just busy as hell since I retired..........Go figure........

LOL!  This retirement is hard work, isn't it, frankq? 

Yes it is..I thought all my time would be spent playing my Piano....Jazz, Scriabin and Broadway...

[sunrnr]

Feb 8, 2014 13:27:57 GMT -5 frankq said:

Hey, I'm still here, just busy as hell since I retired..........Go figure........

Good thing ... being busy that is. Keeps you out of trouble! Enjoy!

[Virgil Showlion]

Mar 6, 2014 10:12:52 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

What ever happened to the........foreclosure glut that was going to take out the economy?

Looks like another DOOM & GLOOM topic has gone tits up.  Like the massive inflation prediction.  The collapse of stocks predictions. etc, etc, etc.

Since we are now five years post 2009 I think it is about time for FTI, and the rest of us to say "I told you so" (by posting this I have probably jinxed the economy)

Give it time, my good man.

The doomers were simply unable to appreciate the extreme lengths to which fiscal policymakers were willing to kick the can down the road.

2014 has thus far had the worst macro start since 2008, hence this could be the year. Or maybe TPTB will pull another rabbit out of their hat and postpone it for yet another year.

Doomers are patient.

[Deleted]

Mar 6, 2014 11:53:20 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Mar 6, 2014 10:12:52 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

What ever happened to the........foreclosure glut that was going to take out the economy?

Looks like another DOOM & GLOOM topic has gone tits up.  Like the massive inflation prediction.  The collapse of stocks predictions. etc, etc, etc.

Since we are now five years post 2009 I think it is about time for FTI, and the rest of us to say "I told you so" (by posting this I have probably jinxed the economy)

Give it time, my good man.

The doomers were simply unable to appreciate the extreme lengths to which fiscal policymakers were willing to kick the can down the road.

2014 has thus far had the worst macro start since 2008, hence this could be the year. Or maybe TPTB will pull another rabbit out of their hat and postpone it for yet another year.

Doomers are patient.

You mean they have blinders on?   Maybe you are right. 

[Virgil Showlion]

You have also lost about 200% gains over the past five years.

I haven't lost anything. I didn't sell anything five years ago. My "risk" investments are in friends' businesses, Canadian energy stocks, and gold as a hedge should world markets go to pot (which I bought at $750).

I've never once suggested on MT that anyone buy anything or sell anything. And if you check my prediction record, the stock markets shooting the moon has been one of them since 2009. I echo ZH's "Dow 36,000" sentiment.

You need to respect who says what, and differentiate between your ideological opponents. Frank Q has accused me of all kinds of bearish market sentiment as well, utterly without basis.

I am exceedingly pessimistic about the state of the global economy, but that has nothing to do with the stock market. And I feel perfectly vindicated in saying that the global situation is worse today than it was five years ago. It just hasn't collapsed yet. Even with that, I've never had more than a "wait and see" attitude. Macroeconomics is what interests me. Underlying trends and data. The markets are just a casino.

In short, accuse me of botching predictions I've actually made. Altogether I'd say my record is rather good. Check out my "official" 2013 predictions on the Rainbows and Puppies thread if you don't believe me.

THANK YOU Virgil for all you have done for this forum over the years. You are a good guy to put in all the time you have on these boards.

Thanks for being a participant and sharing your market insights.

[Virgil Showlion]

Mar 6, 2014 13:15:41 GMT -5 ArchietheDragon said:

Mar 6, 2014 11:53:20 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Give it time, my good man.

The doomers were simply unable to appreciate the extreme lengths to which fiscal policymakers were willing to kick the can down the road.

2014 has thus far had the worst macro start since 2008, hence this could be the year. Or maybe TPTB will pull another rabbit out of their hat and postpone it for yet another year.

Doomers are patient.

You mean they have blinders on?   Maybe you are right. 

Some do. It works both ways, obviously.

I'm similar to DJ in that I like discussion between contrary opinions. That's one of the reasons it's too bad the bearish side of MT died, and why I tried to encourage their contributions.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The bearish side died? That's funny, because I think I'm pretty bearish right now. After being right about the US's slow and steady comeback(manufacturing, farming, housing, ect) I have made a solid case as to why over the next 5-7 years there is a cause for concern. But just like over the last five years I am watching for the underlying trends that will be there after the fact. Being a broken clock doesn't mean your telling time accuratly twice a day is the point Mr. Z was making I think Virgil. You're still a good man though.

[Virgil Showlion]

Mar 9, 2014 3:19:05 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

The bearish side died? That's funny, because I think I'm pretty bearish right now. After being right about the US's slow and steady comeback(manufacturing, farming, housing, ect) I have made a solid case as to why over the next 5-7 years there is a cause for concern. But just like over the last five years I am watching for the underlying trends that will be there after the fact. Being a broken clock doesn't mean your telling time accuratly twice a day is the point Mr. Z was making I think Virgil. You're still a good man though.

Pfft. Take a look at the predictions I've actually made (for example, in the Rainbows and Puppies thread) and I'll stand by it any day.

I'm going to have to institute a rule requiring that people provide a quote or a link to a post every time they refer to something I think, believe, or predict, because ever since Mid, Decoy et al. left, there seems to be a lineup of people waiting to debate me as though I were the embodiment of everything they said.

A record of everything I've said on MT going back to mid-2012 is viewable on the first two pages here.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Again, timing is everything Virgil. Analyst get paid for being accurate. For instance, the Oilers haven't won the cup since the great one left. Every year I think this will be there year, hoping with my emotional side. If one of these years in the next two decades the oilers win the cup it doesn't mean I was right. I can give you an example from this year of your inaccuracies, on PM, you started a thread stating the FED would never taper.....

Honestly, the past is behind us, I'm not going to keep bringing up shit from the past. I don't feel better by trying to blow your candle out Virgil, and I was very wrong about Putin and I owe you 100 karma for that.

Honestly, I think the biggest point Mr.Z was making, and he can correct me if I'm wrong, was; dont EVER count America out. It hasn't paid off yet,and going into the future it really won't.

It was like the old man was saying the other day on this episode of pawn stars I was watching. Kids now a days just don't understand that the entire country was dedicated to the war effort. Stay .

[frankq]

You need to respect who says what, and differentiate between your ideological opponents. Frank Q has accused me of all kinds of bearish market sentiment as well, utterly without basis.

I haven't accused you of anything. I have challenged the content of your postings, which have oftentimes been extremely doomy and condesending. If you are even remotely insinuating that you have been bullish on the American economy, currency and the markets over the last few years, then pass whatever you've been smoking to the rest of us. Maybe you could repost the "DOW 36,000" post that you refer to as I don't remember that one. Seems to me that if you really believe that the Dow would go to 36,000, you would have bought the hell out of stocks over the last few years and would be continuing to do so. I think I've provided "basis" for my responses to posts from many individuals out here for years in spades, including you. Predictions? We're still waiting for Egypt to collapse. Still waiting for the American dollar to collapse. Waiting for out of control inflation, deflation, stagnation, radiation poisoning.......Still waiting for a lot of things. Why not list the "predictions" you made out here so we can revisit them. You scored on a few items if I remember correctly, but when it comes to money and the markets, I think you probably missed the the boat. Predictions have a shelf life. Yes...someday we will have a big economic shake-up. Someday.....Someday, the world will be hit by a meteor...Someday.....I predict the world will end.....Someday.....The fact remains, anybody that heeded the words of the Doomers lost BIG. Of that there is no doubt.

Give it time, my good man.

The doomers were simply unable to appreciate the extreme lengths to which fiscal policymakers were willing to kick the can down the road.

2014 has thus far had the worst macro start since 2008, hence this could be the year. Or maybe TPTB will pull another rabbit out of their hat and postpone it for yet another year


Ok. We'll consider this the year that the economy collapses per Virgil.....See you on New Years' Eve........

[Virgil Showlion]

Maybe you could repost the "DOW 36,000" post that you refer to as I don't remember that one. Seems to me that if you really believe that the Dow would go to 36,000, you would have bought the hell out of stocks over the last few years and would be continuing to do so.

Find a litany of my Dow 36,000 posts here.

I can give you an example from this year of your inaccuracies, on PM, you started a thread stating the FED would never taper.

I'll give you a "badge" if you can show me that thread.

To help you out, here's a list of all the threads I've started: Link

And here's a list of all the posts I've made that include the word 'taper': Link

For the record, I think the Fed banks are getting scared out of their pants. World governments (not just the US government) are demanding they keep up their asset purchases, and I'll wager the Fed banks are getting mighty fed up with taking crap onto their balance sheets. If we see any further tapering in 2014, it's because the Fed is scared. If we don't, it means they've acquiesced to the impassioned demands of everyone from Brazil to India to (of course) the US Treasury Department.

Ok. We'll consider this the year that the economy collapses per Virgil.....See you on New Years' Eve.

That is not what I said, sir. I said it's the worst macro start since 2008. This much is true. I stand by this statement. Then I stated 2014 might be the year where the wheels come off or it might not be. That's not a prediction. It's an acknowledgement that I don't know whether it will happen this year or not.

If I believe a collapse will occur in a particular year or will very likely occur in a particular year, I will say "it will happen this year" or "it will very likely happen this year". I speak very directly if I'm convinced of something. You know this.

If I say something "could happen this year", I mean to say that I believe it could happen in that particular year. As in: there is a non-negligible probability of it occurring.

We're still waiting for Egypt to collapse.

I never said that either.

My predictions on Egypt and Syria were that they wouldn't be flourishing with pro-western "student-strengthened democracy", which Ham insisted was waiting to burst forth after the so-called "Arab Spring".

He also said in 2012 that Vladimir Putin would be "history" by the end of that year, and I strongly disputed that.

When I get some time, I'll start an official "Virgil's Predictions" thread to enumerate my 2014 predictions. That way you'll have something concrete (and, you know, real) to grill me on in future.

[frankq]

On the Egypt thing I believe you said that the country would be in the shit as a result of the Muslim Brotherhood. Democracy takes time. Building nations takes time. Egypt seems to be running ok for now. Democracy is a work in progress.

If I believe a collapse will occur in a particular year or will very likely occur in a particular year, I will say "it will happen this year" or "it will very likely happen this year". I speak very directly if I'm convinced of something. You know this.

After reading your posts over the last couple of years, and then this, I don't know to make of your "direct" statements:

I haven't lost anything. I didn't sell anything five years ago. My "risk" investments are in friends' businesses, Canadian energy stocks, and gold as a hedge should world markets go to pot (which I bought at $750).

I've never once suggested on MT that anyone buy anything or sell anything. And if you check my prediction record, the stock markets shooting the moon has been one of them since 2009. I echo ZH's "Dow 36,000" sentiment.

Like I said previously, anyone who had such conviction as yours as to where the Dow would be would most certainly have invested in said market...

Give it time, my good man.

The doomers were simply unable to appreciate the extreme lengths to which fiscal policymakers were willing to kick the can down the road.

2014 has thus far had the worst macro start since 2008, hence this could be the year. Or maybe TPTB will pull another rabbit out of their hat and postpone it for yet another year.

Doomers are patient.

So.....it could be the year....kind off maybe.....sort of...but not really....Yep, you've got it covered for sure.

I am exceedingly pessimistic about the state of the global economy, but that has nothing to do with the stock market. And I feel perfectly vindicated in saying that the global situation is worse today than it was five years ago. It just hasn't collapsed yet. Even with that, I've never had more than a "wait and see" attitude. Macroeconomics is what interests me. Underlying trends and data. The markets are just a casino.

Yeah, hard to believe that anyone could accuse you of being bearish on markets. What was I thinking?? Of course the global economy has no effect on companies that do half of their business outside the U.S. So....are you saying that, in spite of your belief that the global economy is getting worse, the stock market will get better? Just trying to get my head around that speaking directly thing...

I'm similar to DJ in that I like discussion between contrary opinions. That's one of the reasons it's too bad the bearish side of MT died, and why I tried to encourage their contributions.

Yeah, you like the interaction as long as it suits you......I guess that's why this place is booming. But hey! Here's to another great year of investment success.

[Virgil Showlion]

Egypt seems to be running ok for now. Democracy is a work in progress.

It hasn't sunken into the ocean, if that's what you mean. As far as being a flourishing, pro-American democracy, my skepticism was (and is) perfectly warranted.

On the Egypt thing I believe you said that the country would be in the shit as a result of the Muslim Brotherhood.

I said no such thing. In fact, I predict Egypt will grow to be a more influential nation over the coming years.

So.....it could be the year....kind off maybe.....sort of...but not really....Yep, you've got it covered for sure.

The statement wasn't a prediction. Get over it.

So....are you saying that, in spite of your belief that the global economy is getting worse, the stock market will get better?

It's what I've been saying since 2009. My posts are all right there.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Virgil, did you notice they DID hold elections in Egypt? I have already admitted,a few times, that was wrong about Putin. And I seem to remember explaining the secritarian war that was breaking out to you, which you scoffed at.. No surprise there... So what, you think because you were right about a tyrannical dictator that it makes up for YEARS of terrible analytics?

But hey, just keep wishing in one hand and shitting in the other.... Because you never said anything, it's all someone else making all these bad calls all over the place...

Oct 18, 2013 13:48:33 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

They have Bloomberg spooked, and given the interest he represents, that's definitely a good thing.

ZH points out the latest BusinessWeek cover:



The subtitle reads "Ted Cruz and his band of deadenders took the US through the looking glass. Now crazy is the new normal."

'Crazy', as Mr. Bloomberg refers to it, is the desire to end the 85 billion a month Fed monetization of US debt. More than a trillion dollars a year, and continuing to grow at an alarming rate, even as foreign creditors sell off their US debt and buy hard US assets (for example, China acquired JPM's gold vault and former headquarters just the other day).



The details on Fed asset purchases and open market operations gets rather complicated, but the bottom line is this. Each dollar of debt created is an asset producing a fair amount of interest for a gentlemen just like Mr. Bloomberg. Your debt is a pump of billions--hundreds of billions--of dollars out of your (the taxpayer's) pocket, straight into Mr. Bloomberg's coffers in the form of interest, or in the form of inflating the prices of assets that he owns.

Why is Mr. Bloomberg lampooning Mr. Cruz and the Tea Party? Because Mr. Bloomberg and a great many men just like him don't want their incredible wealth pump to shut down. Debt--debt that you owe them--is their business now. Anyone or anything that threatens that enterprise is going to be shot down with a vindictiveness you've scarcely ever seen.

He did get one thing right. "Crazy is the new normal."

Crazy has been the "new normal" for quite a while now, Mr. Bloomberg.

I can only appeal to the politically-minded here: Don't buy into the "Tea Party is Crazy" propaganda. They're reckless, yes. They're certainly not perfect. But they obviously care about your country, see what's happening to it, and magazine covers like the above are the proof that they make Bloomberg and Debt Inc. extremely uncomfortable.

Oh if you want I will post our conversation from that thread here.. Do you like crow deep fried?

[Virgil Showlion]

So what, you think because you were right about a tyrannical dictator that it makes up for YEARS of terrible analytics?

Terrible analytics like what? All those things I supposedly said but didn't actually say?

The Fed's asset repurchase program is still running at 90% of full tilt. The LFPR dropped by the amount I predicted in November 2012, and the official UE rate dropped just 0.1% more than I predicted. Pres. Obama was reelected, which was my prediction. US debt has continued to pile up, slightly short of my $18 trillion prediction for June of this year. The wealth pump is alive and well. Wealth disparity continues to increase in the US and abroad.

I've never actually made any food inflation predictions after 2010. The Food Inflation Thread was simply an attempt to gauge how much food prices were going up in 2010 for a broad sampling of board members. For reasons that are beyond me, several people took my involvement in this thread to mean that I believed core inflation would skyrocket for the next four years. Notwithstanding the fact that the thread only concerned food inflation, and the fact that it only pertained to 2010, and the fact that I've talked about bi-flation since 2011, the myth of "hyperinflation Virgil" seems to be alive and well. Having said that, global food inflation has averaged a blistering 7%/ann. over the past four years in PPP-adjusted terms, which is indeed quite a bit of food inflation.

Keep reaching into your magic bag. Maybe you'll find something that sticks.

Oh if you want I will post our conversation from that thread here.

Be my guest.

Most of it is right here: notmsnmoney.proboards.com/thread/35575/tea-party-doing-right?page=4

You were sore because Yellen had just announced at that point (October 2013) that the Fed was postponing the taper yet again. You blamed it on Ted Cruz and the Tea Party.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Lies, as usual...

Oct 19, 2013 16:40:26 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Virgil, if your point is that the US needs politicians that get the fact that the budget needs to be balanced, I agree. Using poor economic examples, based on concepts from people with a poor economic forecasting track records, was not the way to get the point across, Virg.....

How about? ALL of these dumb arse American politicians need to get it, at some point UST debt won't be the be all end all of secured govt bonds, 20 trillion in debt is plenty enough to roll over in the bond market for decades to come. Even Dallas FED prez Fisher, who is a hawk, has said that thanks to the US politicians creating economic uncertainty in the US economy, it's hard to argue for tapering.

That would be my summary anyway.

Later that month the politicians made a deal, and the taper started. Exactly like I said. This thread I'm quoting from is an example of your terrible analytics. Terrible examples, and no thoughts aside from what the guys at ZH think. But that's your game right?

As far as the US debt growing, NO ONE argued with you, there again though, didn't grow as fast as you were saying... Again, this is fucking useless and I'm not waisting anymore time on this pointless conversation. You want to think you have been accurate? Go to it.

[Virgil Showlion]

You also opened up that same post with

Oct 19, 2013 16:40:26 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

The FED was about to taper bond buying, but because the TP were the ones that essentially shut down the govt, the FRB had no choice but to stay its course.

So excuse me if I took this to mean you blamed the TP for lack of tapering in October 2013.

You want to think you have been accurate? Go to it.

I'm just asking that people criticize things I've actually said (and that they can prove I've said).

I think you'd find that I agree with you more than you think I do. As for not wasting any more time in this arc: agreed. Life is too short.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I can see where the confusion came in with the tapering conversation.

What I'm saying  Virgil is that I am done critizing you, you are a smart guy and I have grown up through the same shit as you have. I know we are a lot a like, it's rare to meet someone that understands Hebrew Scriptures and history.. . Also, we both understand who has ultimate power. All my point was going to be was, had you not been as negative as you were, we wouldn't have missed WW3 unfolding... Of course your point is, if I hadn't have been so positive and optimistic.... . Where am I coming up with this you maybe asking

Jul 5, 2012 13:37:27 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Putin is so delusional, not only does he think he will keep his throne in Russia, he honestly thinks he will restore the old Soviet Union.

It's actually crazy to read the first couple pages of this thread... I guess mathematically Islamification is the Goal of Extremists, eh Virg?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

That last sentence wasn't part of the original quote, for some reason I can't edit the bottom quote line of code...

[frankq]

On the Egypt thing I believe you said that the country would be in the shit as a result of the Muslim Brotherhood.
I said no such thing. In fact, I predict Egypt will grow to be a more influential nation over the coming years.

Pretty sure you did, but I'm not about to try to did through posts from 2 years ago and I think you know that. As far as your stand on the markets since 2009, well there are still enough of us around that participated in those conversations so we all know the score. I do know that there has been a lot of excellent resources in the form of posters that have left over the last couple of years and that's a shame for the board. Hopefully guys like aham, wxyz, driftr and others will stick around. A lot of people would have done well to pay attention back then. They would have most certainly been better off. I know I am.....Good luck...


As far as the US debt growing, NO ONE argued with you, there again though, didn't grow as fast as you were saying... Again, this is fucking useless and I'm not waisting anymore time on this pointless conversation. You want to think you have been accurate? Go to it.

[bimetalaupt]

Mar 10, 2014 18:13:59 GMT -5 frankq said:

On the Egypt thing I believe you said that the country would be in the shit as a result of the Muslim Brotherhood.
I said no such thing. In fact, I predict Egypt will grow to be a more influential nation over the coming years.

Pretty sure you did, but I'm not about to try to did through posts from 2 years ago and I think you know that. As far as your stand on the markets since 2009, well there are still enough of us around that participated in those conversations so we all know the score. I do know that there has been a lot of excellent resources in the form of posters that have left over the last couple of years and that's a shame for the board. Hopefully guys like aham, wxyz, driftr and others will stick around. A lot of people would have done well to pay attention back then. They would have most certainly been better off. I know I am.....Good luck...


As far as the US debt growing, NO ONE argued with you, there again though, didn't grow as fast as you were saying... Again, this is fucking useless and I'm not waisting anymore time on this pointless conversation. You want to think you have been accurate? Go to it.

frankq,
An Odd poth to recovery in rebuilding retirement assets there will be a shortage of long term AAA or T-Bonds over the next few years.  There will be more demand with the $50 Trillion needed retirement assets to fund the fixed return retirements esp State Governments and SS retirement. 
Just a thought,
Bruce