The current state of the stock markets

[ModE98]

If the market continues to drop points almost daily, we will soon enter a typical 'correction' phase, probably like 10% or so from today.

 

Hopefully, Trump can get a trade agreement from China soon and wrap up up this trade war.  But, perhaps he wants too much and this stupid thing will just drag on and on............................

[Value Buy]

May 29, 2019 20:00:45 GMT -5 ModE98 said:

If the market continues to drop points almost daily, we will soon enter a typical 'correction' phase, probably like 10% or so from today.

 

Hopefully, Trump can get a trade agreement from China soon and wrap up up this trade war.  But, perhaps he wants too much and this stupid thing will just drag on and on............................

Hard to believe the Nasdaq set a record high earlier this month. Seems like months ago! The ups and downs of this market are so close to each in tight time frames now. What used to take six months to accomplish in moves one way or the other now happens in a week or two. It can be scary, but if you are an active trader it is easy money going up or going down.

[Value Buy]

Interesting stat on the S&P 500 this morning.
Best opening six month performance for the S&P 500 since 1997, if it holds up this week.
Darn President Trump. He is destroying this country and the equity markets

[Value Buy]

Dow hit 27,000 this morning.
S&P 500 over 3,000 this morning
Nasdaq 8,212 this morning

[ModE98]

Just hope there are no deep, dark rain clouds coming to wash out the big parade in a ton of new bad news.  Something in my gut tells me that trouble will develop with all the trade wars and sanctions.  I remember the 1920s where this kind of stuff resulted in the market crash of '29 and the big depression.  The world better get the trade situation back in good order. 

Just a thought from memories of the bad times of yore.

[Value Buy]

Jul 11, 2019 10:20:25 GMT -5 ModE98 said:

Just hope there are no deep, dark rain clouds coming to wash out the big parade in a ton of new bad news.  Something in my gut tells me that trouble will develop with all the trade wars and sanctions.  I remember the 1920s where this kind of stuff resulted in the market crash of '29 and the big depression.  The world better get the trade situation back in good order. 

Just a thought from memories of the bad times of yore.

United Healthcare is up about $12 a share today, adding a 100 points to the Dow.

[ModE98]

IMO, this market is CRAZY, way overpriced.....warning flags are flying (for those who really look deep beneath the froth)…....the tell-tale signs are there.


Of course, as a child during the Great Depression, I am extremely cautious.  The markets may run for awhile (sans war or some extreme event).

[Value Buy]

Jul 18, 2019 15:44:35 GMT -5 ModE98 said:

IMO, this market is CRAZY, way overpriced.....warning flags are flying (for those who really look deep beneath the froth)…....the tell-tale signs are there.


Of course, as a child during the Great Depression, I am extremely cautious.  The markets may run for awhile (sans war or some extreme event).

Just gotta say I am stoked over the present quarterly reports. Everyone on Wall Street was worried we might have peaked on sales and profits.
Based on last week and so far this week, things are humming along really bigtime.
Look for the markets to rise this week chasing the results.

Things look so good the Fed should not lower interest rates right now, but they already telegraphed they would.

[Value Buy]

CMG just reported and beat the numbers. Now at $770 a share today in after hours. This is freaking crazy.

[ModE98]

Believe one of these days (how soon is debatable. may be a year or two)., the markets will CRASH many thousands of points.  Good times and euphoria do have an end.
The markets just seem to high and "frothy" to me.  The ever-increasing national debt is something that future generations will be stuck and never be able to pay oFf.  The "writing is upon th wall", too many fail to see it.  

[Value Buy]

July jobs report. June numbers were upped by 10,000 jobs also.
Looks like large corporations added the majority of jobs while small businesses brought up the rear.

www.cnbc.com/2019/07/31/private-payrolls-up-156k-in-july-vs-150k-est-adpmoodys.html

[Value Buy]

The month of August for the markets have been interesting. You would have thought the indexes was dropping off a cliff. 
If we have a decent positive close today, stock indexes will look rather rosy rather than road kill.


Please President trump stay off of twitter for ten hours!

[Value Buy]

Dow broke above 27,000 Monday and also closed above it today.
S&P 500 is trading just under 3,000
NASDAQ is at 8,135 range

Netflix posted above expected earnings and the stock jumped after the close today despite saying Apple and Disney will both be operating their own on demand channels in November. 

[Value Buy]

Interesting read. No, the author is not saying a recession is coming. Just saying active managed funds need one so they can start beating ndex fund returns.....

www.cnbc.com/2019/10/24/a-sector-of-the-market-that-needs-a-recession-in-worst-way-possible.html

[Value Buy]

Closing quotes today
DOW 27,783.59
S&P 500 3,094.04
Nasdaq 8,482.10

Pretty nice moves from October 16th.

[Value Buy]

41 points from DOW 28,000
I do not believe we will close this high, but we are almost there.
Record highs also reached today on S&P500 and Nasdaq

[ModE98]

We did close at 28,004 and change!  Was based on improving China trade news.  Now, onward to 29,000.
Heard predictions of 30,000 to come.....I'll believe it if I live to see it.  If so, would just sell everything before any huge correction sets in.  Cash would be king.

[Value Buy]

Nov 15, 2019 17:55:21 GMT -5 ModE98 said:

We did close at 28,004 and change!  Was based on improving China trade news.  Now, onward to 29,000.
Heard predictions of 30,000 to come.....I'll believe it if I live to see it.  If so, would just sell everything before any huge correction sets in.  Cash would be king.

Yeh, if this keeps up into the new year, we (my wife and I) might switch some funds from primarily stock funds to a more balanced stock and bond fund.
Not ready to go into just a tax free bond fund yet......
We do not want to push our luck and see a 10 to 15% retraction which stays that way til after the November election. If Sanders or Warren look real strong, fund managers might get a little skittish/conservative for a few months and pull some money out or just stop buying new positions until they know which way the wind is blowing......

[Value Buy]

The various stock indexs continue to climb to all new time highs.
Anyone invested in company 401-K'S might want to go online and check your porfolio values.
Check your IRAS too.
Start your day with a pleasant thought of your eventual retirement fund totals.

Since I have retired and we are pulling money out for the lifestyle we hoped to enjoy, it is amazing. The total value of the funds are still increasing after all the withdraws and no more money going into the investments to grow the amounts.

[Value Buy]

Jobs report this morning was big.
266,000 jobs, 254,000 private industry.
Unemployment at 3.5%

www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-nonfarm-payrolls-increase-by-the-most-in-10-months/ar-BBXQOkW
Markets are taking it as a big positive, setting December up for a solid month of gains.

[Value Buy]

10:45 qm and DOW crossed over the 28,000 mark 
Up 332 points.
Not sure that number will hold for the day, but nice to see it again.

[Value Buy]

I have four stocks that will pay a dividend this month.
All are up and two pay the dividend next week and two the week after.
Tired of them always going up before the dividend because all four are in a drip program, buying fewer shares due to higher stock prices.......

[Value Buy]

Well it has been a pretty good year if you were invested in the stock markets this year.

www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/stocks-cap-2019-with-their-strongest-gains-in-6-years/ar-BBYu4J0?li=BBnbfcL

[Value Buy]

    LOL, there was quite a bit of doom and gloom on page 16 of this thread, with just a touch of optimism thrown in

I guess we can look at this and try to decipher how 2021 finishes up, with all the politics being thrown around by both parties.
One thing we can agree on, stock portfolios from a 2019 look back have had an amazing run.

[Value Buy]

Well, yesterday's markets were an adventure. Banks reported excellent numbers. Ten yr Treasury dropped a little and traders liked that too.
Today retail sales were very positive and the markets are up slightly today. Will have to wait and see if traders sell off positions this afternoon.
Nasdaq is only up a quarter of a percent, Dow almost .95 percent right now.

[Value Buy]

At 2:38 eastern,
Dow up 382 points   + 1.06%
Nasdaq up 72.9 point  +.49%
S&P500 up 33.87 points +.76

[djAdvocate]

the dow and the Russell 2000 have been parked right here for about 6 months now (8 months for Russell).

this is extremely bullish, imo.

the price channel for R2000 (RUT) is particularly bullish. it has been parked between 2100 and 2300 for all but a few days since JANUARY. the baseline trend for the last three months is extremely bullish.

I think what will propel the market is earnings in the next phase. the growth rates are off the chart, and earnings should follow. if the aggregate growth rate is over 30% in earnings, the PEG will be the lowest it has been in decades.

[Value Buy]

Oct 15, 2021 19:53:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

the dow and the Russell 2000 have been parked right here for about 6 months now (8 months for Russell).

this is extremely bullish, imo.

the price channel for R2000 (RUT) is particularly bullish. it has been parked between 2100 and 2300 for all but a few days since JANUARY. the baseline trend for the last three months is extremely bullish.

I think what will propel the market is earnings in the next phase. the growth rates are off the chart, and earnings should follow. if the aggregate growth rate is over 30% in earnings, the PEG will be the lowest it has been in decades.

Thanks. I know you go much deeper than I do into the technicals!

[djAdvocate]

I am actually a fundamentals guy. I just use technical for TIMING.
unless you are one of those people that likes to park their capital in the market (I am not bagging on that, for the record), timing becomes a serious part of investing.

on the fundamental side, the US is going to grow 6% next year. in a 3% growth year, a small cap growth stock might tack on 20%, you can use your logic and consider what that might mean for the R2000.

in short, I think that the market WANTS to go down. there is a lot of bad stuff going on right now that could have serious impacts on the market. I have been thinking about this stuff really deeply in the last year, but for reasons that I am not going to post publicly. the conclusion I came to, however, I WILL post here: that the coming growth and inflation are very likely quite bullish for stocks, especially small to mid cap.

[Value Buy]

Well, the DOW, S&P500, and Nasdaq continue hitting record highs.
Hope everyone is spot checking your portfolios. If you are mostly in stock mutual funds or the  triple QQQ's etc, you have been printing money without much mental effort. Individual stock picking seems to still be tricky, but the stocks that have been positive earlier in the year seem to be still working so far.
As the Fed starts tapering as announced yesterday some of the "stay at home stocks" from the pandemic, might start losing steam.
I am loooking for a good final quarter of the year until the last two weeks of the year when some investors might decide to ring the register. Usually the first two weeks of the new year are pretty positive as new money comes into the market.
With the bitcoin love affair the gold and silver crowd has lost all momentum, as money seems to have shifted to Bitcoins of the world.

I still do not understand Tesla stock, and it's pricing, but the momentum is still there.......
Seems the dividend paying stocks are continueing to increase dividend payouts for a few more months.
With the trouble of corporations producing or possibly even shipping products, all price incentives/rebates to retailers for selling their product has dried up.Consumers are paying full retail prices these days, and this includes at the grocery store.
Anyone check meat prices per lb in the stores lately? Even WalMart has raised the prices of beef to prices out of reach of lower income customers. Even during the pandemic we were able to buy meat after the initial panic buying period at only slightly higher prices.

And for anyone worried about turkey availability, it is fine. I am even seeing Butterball turkeys being advertised around a dollar per lb already. Aldi, WalMart and major chain grocery stores already havevarious brand names available in quantity in their display cases. If there was a true shortage, their regular pricing would not be where it is currently. Yes, we will be payng more than we did last year for most turkeys, but not an outragwous proce as usually sell turkeys far below their cost in normal years.