The current state of the stock markets

[Value Buy]

Pre-election hype

Hillary good for the market
Donald bad for market

Election results?
Donald great for markets!

Same result as the Brexit debate.

[Value Buy]

Jul 14, 2016 18:08:24 GMT -5 ModE98 said:

It appears that the Dow may make around 19000 by mid-Sept if the current trend can continue.  Of course, some snafu could pop up and spoil the party. 

Trying to figure out the market's future moves is mostly an exercise of futility.  But, nevertheless we try (win some/lose some). 

Darn ModE93, you missed it by two months!

[ModE98]

VB, was a little premature, but we made it and that's the important thing.

[Value Buy]

Nov 26, 2016 16:36:19 GMT -5 ModE98 said:

VB, was a little premature, but we made it and that's the important thing.

Onward and upward!

[Value Buy]

Aug 12, 2016 8:06:33 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

RANDOM THOUGHTS

I believe we are on track for 10% to 15% gains this year in stocks, especially the DOW and SP500.  I also believe we will see DOW 20,000 some time over the next 6-12 months.  I DO NOT see any BIG correction or market drop any time soon for economic reasons. (Although the economy sucks and will continue to suck as long as we continue to move more and more SOCIALISTIC and GLOBALIST in thinking)  (Sorry, but WE ARE THE WORLD, and open borders to uneducated and third world masses with no concept of our culture, history, and society, is not what our country was founded on.)  Black swan events are always a possibility as usual.  Personally I believe the markets are very healthy right now and operating reasonably and normally.  As has ALWAYS been the case most so called investors will not achieve any where near the gains of the general averages.

BREXIT is the perfect example of current mass media based fallacy thinking, simply another case of panic over nothing just as we saw with Y2K. (which most people don't remember)

Now, investors themselves, if we can even call most people investors any more, continue with the trading mentality and market timing mentality that the media, advertising, and inexperience has fostered over the past 15 years.  The young age of professionals in the banking, financial, trading, and investment, industries means that we have a lot of people in these jobs that have no real experience or seasoning.  They will jump from the frying pan into the fire at the slightest panic or fear event.  The level of incompetence in these industries continues to RISE, in my opinion.

 

Your prediction of the Dow and S&P 500 are right on!

We are above 19,500 on the Dow today. Santa Claus rally is ahead of schedule.
I am shocked on the move transports did today --up 230 points in one day
Personal portfolio is hitting new personal highs virtually every day right now.
The naysayers over Brexit and now Trump, have missed the mark 100%.
Like you always say, stay invested at all times!

[Value Buy]

I know the DOW 20,000 mark means relatively little in the grand scheme of things, other than we could see a major sell off after we hit it.......or not.....
But I think today is the day for it to happen.
Later this afternoon......
The DOW has been trading in a very small gap, slightly down so far this morning, and I think it is just filling a gap, and will spring up this afternoon!

[Value Buy]

Have not received paper statements of our IRA'S yet, so went on line to see this year's end of year payouts.

CHA-CHING!

Dividends, long term and short term capital gains were rather good to us this year. 
Looks like it was about triple what we will need for expenses.
Still got three years of growth before required minimum withdrawls happen.
I would not be happy if they were in regular accounts having to pay the income tax on the numbers. Would have to sell some stocks or shares of the funds to cover the taxes. 
It's hard enough on the regular accounts with the dividend income, not to have to stop some drips to cover the tax bill now.
   

[Value Buy]

First quarter totals for this year continue to ring the register. 
Remember January of LAST YEAR?  

[Value Buy]

Jun 15, 2012 8:53:07 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

For the first time in my investment history, I am not able to feel okay with stock investing.
I believe between the National debt here in the states, and the economic fiasco facing all of Europe, it may all start coming apart this weekend.
The last two weeks I have liquidated half of my portfolio of stocks.
My core holdings are now one utility,
Nisource, two energy stocks, Chevron and Exxon.
Hopefully, I will continue with some dividend income with these choices.
Cut by 75% my holdings in JPM.
Liquidated all of PG, ( this one might be a mistake on my part)Microsoft, Cisco, and K, although cornflakes might become the next big food fad around the world
I have increased my loose silver coin holdings with these sales, as I do expect silver to climb when the economic meltdown occurs, and at least unlike gold, businesses and farmers can make change with any purchases I make with the silver
I am getting close to retirement age, so I might just be getting a little too conservative, but I have never felt this insecure about the markets, and I worry that it might be a recovery that would need fifteen years to regain the losses that might occur.
When our market collapsed back in the 80's I looked at that as a buying opportunity. Not his time.
Greece will not be pretty after the vote this weekend, and Spain is getting worse by the day.
I do not expect any positive economic results happening here when Europe economically implodes this fall, conveniently, after the elections here in November.

Thoughts?

My thoughts today on this post from June 2012 to start the thread.
You dumbass!
Still stuck with the damn silver bars.
Just glad I got back into the stock market.
Whatever happened to Greece anyway?
They are still there, and not a peep about them occurs anymore.
We had Brexit last year and came out great so far......

[Value Buy]

What's up with yesterday's trading. Dow was up about 145 points late in afternoon, and closed down 40 points on the day.
The 145 point level was well after the Fed Minutes being released......

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Apr 3, 2017 18:43:33 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Whatever happened to Greece anyway?
They are still there, and not a peep about them occurs anymore.
We had Brexit last year and came out great so far......

My MIL is in Greece right now. Things are not good. I didn't realize this, but the ATM withdrawal limits still apply. What they did in Europe was included Drugs and the sex trade to economic calculation. This allowed them the fudge GDP and keep their shell game going. Of course this masked the simmering tension among the people, and then you throw the refugee crisis in the mix. Which is why far right parties are now the second most popular - in some cases the most popular - parties across Europe.

Brexit was a good thing because Britain/The U.K. has never really been a part of Europe. The breakup of the EU is not going to be pretty. Remember my friend; Mussolini was the first... Italy's 5-Star builds policies and poll lead as rivals struggle

Stay

[Value Buy]

Here we are on May 31st, and the markets are still doing great.
Basically at all time highs for Nasdaq and S&P 500 and Dow very near one.
Ten yr bond is down to 2.20% again in spite of the Fed promising another rate increase in June. Hurting the bank stocks which seem to be building a head and shoulders formation on the graphs.......but should be okay of Fed does raise interest rates.
Personal portfolio is just off it all time best, but still very happy with the performance.

I hold two major oil stocks which are trending down due to oil busting $50 a barrel again (and again, and again) and hope they stay here until the dividend pays in early June, due to drip's on both of them....

My only disappointment is I never invested in any of the fang stocks and have missed such large moves in those stocks, but my IRA funds have them covered in their portfolios, so still getting some benefit from them. Amazon at $999 is unbelievable.....

[Value Buy]

May 31, 2017 10:53:13 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Here we are on May 31st, and the markets are still doing great.
Basically at all time highs for Nasdaq and S&P 500 and Dow very near one.
Ten yr bond is down to 2.20% again in spite of the Fed promising another rate increase in June. Hurting the bank stocks which seem to be building a head and shoulders formation on the graphs.......but should be okay of Fed does raise interest rates.
Personal portfolio is just off it all time best, but still very happy with the performance.

I hold two major oil stocks which are trending down due to oil busting $50 a barrel again (and again, and again) and hope they stay here until the dividend pays in early June, due to drip's on both of them....

My only disappointment is I never invested in any of the fang stocks and have missed such large moves in those stocks, but my IRA funds have them covered in their portfolios, so still getting some benefit from them. Amazon at $999 is unbelievable.....

Nothing much has changed since May 31st.
Stock markets are stronger, and are at record highs.
Interest rates have broken above 2.3% but are still showing a dislike for climbing, protecting utilities and bonds to an extent.
Oil had finally broke $50 a barrel, but does not show a long term growth projection which helps the economy and stocks.
Fang stocks have stabilized, but I think they may climb this 4th qtr propelling the NASDAQ to a record high at the end of the year. 
As wxyz has stated in another thread, Dow 23,000 for the year should be accomplished.
The laggards in my core holdings have been held back due to Kellogg's and Walgreen's poor performance, but Chevron and a couple others have shown some life making up for them. The core portfolio is still setting new highs for the year.
I imagine the stock funds containing IRA'S should produce some rather large distributions in December. Since we do not pay income taxes on these gains, it will be great! 

[grits]

The market cycle is long in the tooth.  When it finally corrects, we could be in for a ride. Some investors will panic, and run for the door. 

[Value Buy]

Friday was a strange day for my three mutual funds we own. Two were down more than the market percentages were, and one was even for the day.
Since our personal stock portfolio is over weighted in stock shares with one utility and two major oils, that total also was worse than the market averages.

I will not change my utility and oil stocks, or lesson the holdings, as I am positioning for dividend drips to end in a little over a year, and take the dividends for our use in cost of living, etc. 

[Value Buy]

Getting upset with our IRA accounts.
The gains last few trading days are mediocre, compared to our regular stocks.
Getting tired of seeing this seesaw battle lately.
I get it that the funds also have bonds in their portfolio but these guys are supposed to be the experts.
Can only hope the year end dividends and capital gains numbers paid out in December make it worthwhile on the funds.
Still, we are close to DOW 23,000 so all should be good...........
Do we dare think of DOW 23,500 by December?

[Value Buy]

Another wishy washy day in the stock markets. 
Banks have taken the usual hit after reporting earnings and showing good numbers.
Retail stocks are being thrown away this week.
Oil confirms it cannot make headway on the upside after getting above $50 to $52 a barrel
And yet, transports were strong again.......

[Value Buy]

Dow hit above 22,900 a minute ago.

[Value Buy]

Oh my goodness.......
Dow up 192 points at 23,467, up .83% basically on two stocks, MMM and Cat.
Nasdaq and S&P 500 only up about a third of a percentage point.

Wondering when we hit 24,000 we finally see a sell off, or do we continue to mid December and see a Santa Claus rally?

[Value Buy]

Oct 24, 2017 14:10:57 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

Personally, I dont see any significant change in the markets ahead for at least one to two years.  There will be a few "normal" corrections of 5-10% along the way.  But I dont think the general market direction of "UP" is going to change any time soon.

Personally, to me the arbitrary number on the DOW or the SP500 is irrelevant.  What counts, as always, is the general economic conditions, and the performance of the individual businesses that make up the indexes.

Of course, as usual there is always the risk of a BLACK SWAN event.

I agree, but the markets always pick some arbitrary number that the markets sell off for no reason

[Value Buy]

Looking at Under Armour this morning. What a hit on earnings this morning......down $2.59 a share, 
Earnings were about half of expected numbers.

[Value Buy]

Kellogg's reported good numbers, better then expected but this stock has been pummeled all fall.
Pringles was one of the drivers of earnings....a salty snack in a company looking to be seen as a company positioning into a healthy food company


This is one of my long time holdings........

[Value Buy]

Well we just concluded another historical month where stocks traditionally do little, or fall.
Today we are celebrating new record highs in some markets for the first day in November!

I have picked my entry point for GE. I imagine they will lower the dividend, so will wait.
I will buy in the $17.31 to $17.42 range. The way it is going, it should occur next week

Also watching what happens to Chesapeake Energy in the next three weeks. Hoping to see a base formed in the low $4 range.

[Value Buy]

Nov 15, 2017 9:41:18 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

Looks like your patience is going to pay off Value.

I see that Ge is quoted at $17.6 right now.  You are virtually at your target.  Still going to buy, or going to wait?  Has your reasoning changed with any of the recent info released by the company?

I do not know.
The way it dropped so fast since they announced cutting the dividend, and saying they expect it to take a FEW YEARS to turn this thing around, makes me think why bother to own it now. Wait a year or two
Not even sure if the three divisions he wants to keep make any sense since they are so diverse, although all three could be helped by the evolution of the digital revolution going on right now.
Today is was above $18 a share........
We all have said here on the board Jeff Immelt was destroying the company but many experts on CNBC and Fox Business are questioning how with what was considered an A plus rated BOD with 18 smart individuals, and no one had a clue how poorly this company was being operated, makes me think there might be some more landmines in the company to go off yet.
I do not have that much "snowflake money" to let it sit there waiting for something to happen right now.
Your bitcoin purchase was rather like snowflake money, and is winning really big right now. GE, not so much.
I noticed you had GE on your list of stocks to watch, and was rather surprised by that choice. Do you still feel you would do it anytime soon, if you had the loose change to do it? Based on your usual strict guidelines, I think not.

[The Virginian]

It should become clear with GE after the 1st of the year. I think Flannery will have no choice but to spin off segments. Hopefully he doesn't screw Investors and just sell them like Immelt was doing.

[Value Buy]

Foot Locker is up $8 a share this morning to $40 a share in early trading.
Several retailers have really jumped on earnings beats this week and are being amply over rewarded, imo.
Everyone claims the brick stores are dead, Malls are dinosaurs, and yet, boom! Some of the stocks are regaining momentum this week.
I guess it could be some shorts getting squeezed, and covering their losses too.

[Value Buy]

Gap stores are up 6.77% in early trading.......
Anyone see a trend?

[Value Buy]

Abercrombie & Fitch up 24% on the opening.
Granted only a little over $3 a share, but.........a lot is being forgiven with retail this week.

[The Virginian]

I have been buying the Mall REITS like WPG, WSR. Retail is changing but far from dead. Visit any mall or shopping center and just watch the traffic.  I know this time of year they are busy but even during the summer months they are packed. It's just the big foot print stores like Sears, Macy's , JC Penny's that need to worry and change.

[Value Buy]

Yesterday was real interesting!
Today the DOW futures are up another 79 points at this time.
How high do we close today? 
Or do we?