The current state of the stock markets

[Value Buy]

Chevron reported a loss on the quarter.......

[Deleted]

Value Buy

Alcoa, just not sure about. Market just does not treat them well even if earnings are decent.

Alcoa has in recent years become fairly synonymous with the term "Speculative Play".

There is the pending action in which Alcoa will be splitting into 2 companies; which might be helpful all around; then again mat be not.

Thus, Alcoa could based on all things considered; either climb or collapse.

If one was thinking of engaging a play in Alcoa; We are of the Opinion that the safer way to do so would be to:

BUY PUT Option Contracts: AA Jan 19 2018 $7 Strike (Current Bid $1.72, Current Ask $1.87)

10 of these Contracts would cost between $1,782 & $1,870 + Trade Fees & would represent 1,000 Shares of Alcoa.

Profitable if Alcoa collapses, or sinks into the low $6 stock range.

BUY CALL Options Contracts: AA Jan 19 2018 $10 Strike (Current Bid $0.92, Current Ask $1.02)

10 of these Contracts would cost between $920 & $1,020 + Trade Fees & would represent 1,000 Shares of Alcoa.

Profitable if Alcoa pops decent, or rises into the high $11 stock range.

Either (or both combined) would cost LESS that 1,000 shares of AA at current stock prices; and allow for speculation both to the Downside & potential Upside.

Keep in mind that some speculation within any portfolio is never a totally bad thing, as long as one can mitigate or hedge the potential risk as much as possible.
 

[ModE98]

"For equities to correct all cumulative excesses - both from the double debt crises and multiple rounds of policy intervention - one may expect a bear market that significantly surpasses bear market average 28 months. Interventionalist central banks will likely prolong the bear market in attempts to soften the decline, but have too few tools and credibility left to reignite a bull market today. Therefore, a pattern of staggered drops followed by rallies on fleeting "good news" is to be expected for the next couple of years."


(Extract from SA article by Owen Williams, CFA, 2/8/16, 12:48 PM EST.  "Timing The Bear Market And The 90/10 Rule")    seekingalpha.com/article/3875126-timing-bear-market-90-10-rule

My comment:   Maybe...not out of the realm of possibility.  But, sure hope not.

[Ombud]

Decoupling of oil & stock market

[Value Buy]

Feb 17, 2016 10:08:35 GMT -5 Ombud said:

Decoupling of oil & stock market

I am not so sure.
Oil is up much more than the stock market today, but stocks still are following the trend in oil.
Oil up, stocks up
Oil down, stocks down.


Picked up 200 shares X last week.
200 shares of Freeport yesterday.
Will let them ride up or down for awhile.
 

[Value Buy]

Friday, Monday, and today are interesting.

Is this a dead count bounce, or with China markets closed for a week, and our markets closed Monday gave investors enough of a breather to be a little more rational in their thoughts? 

[Ombud]

Thought oil down stocks up yesterday?

[Value Buy]

Feb 17, 2016 11:09:57 GMT -5 Ombud said:

Thought oil down stocks up yesterday?

That was yesterday.
Look at today.
four percent jump in oil
1.25% jump in stocks, as of a half hour ago.

[Ombud]

So it was an anomaly yesterday and not a good sign?

[Value Buy]

Feb 17, 2016 11:31:46 GMT -5 Ombud said:

So it was an anomaly yesterday and not a good sign?

I sure as heck cannot tell one way or the other.
Oil might have been down yesterday because Iran said they should be able to pump oil at pre-embargo levels from years ago, and Russia and Saudi Arabia do not want that to happen.
Means more oil on the market.

[Value Buy]

Well with two weeks of tech earnings being all over the board, it looks like the DOW and NADAQ have lost their way for awhile.
DOW down 180 points and my entire portfolio is red today.

Throw in the fact that the markets now know either Clinton or Trump will be the next President, we will have an active market up and down.

Traders also seem to be moving into the commodity sector again.  

[ModE98]

This Brexit calamity needs to get settled down soon....or, it's possible to regress to the Dow 15,500 area or worse over the next month or two.  The problem is the question:  "Is this just the tip of the iceberg and how much more is there to come?"  Will the EU begin to fall apart?  If so, is there a 50% Dow fall in store to shock everyone?  So much could occur that it's a big conundrum. 

Not selling, will just ride it all out.  No place to go, no place to hide; but, certainly panic is no solution. 

[Deleted]

ModE98

Let the chips fall; the markets need realignment of prices on a very wide swath of Equity prices. Given the FEDs refusal to raise Interest Rates (which would have been a good diver for such mentioned); what is happening is an Excellent & reasonable Driver for such realignment.

It is and has been sorely needed for quite some time...

[Value Buy]

Nice to see a strong day in Europe this morning.
It helped us have a positive opening this morning.
I was expecting a day of fund selling and margin call covering to chase the scared investors out this morning.
Didn't see it, although the funds can sell off assets to cover redemption this afternoon........

[Value Buy]

I understand Brexit has the markets in temporary turmoil, but now people claim the markets could be riled for a few years.
I do not believe it. 
We will have the next market flair up over something else before that and move on from that also.
Right now, my thinking is money in Europe if, it is pulled out, comes here to our markets.
There is always a flight to safety after a market fiasco, and we are it.
It's not Japan, China, or Africa.

I see Japan and Europe are up again today, so we might see some gains in our markets today.
Even a major airport bombing right on top of Brexit is not holding the markets down today.
I would have thought there might have been a sell off in Japan and Europe after the bombing.

[Value Buy]

Personal portfolio of stocks recovered all of Monday's losses, but the IRA  accounts only gained about 80% of Monday's losses, and we still have all of Friday's losses to recover......
I think we have ridden the Brexit storm out ok, and yes, there will be some fall out the coming 12 months, but it is rather navigable for investors.

One thing is a fact now. The Fed will not raise rates this year.
I would be shocked if they even considered it.
Maybe sneak one in after the election (December?) if the markets are stable.

[Deleted]

Brexit isn't over yet. It hasn't even begun. A dip and bounce is nothing... its long term impact of decisions that are not made that we will just have to wait and see. 

The financial district in London is going to be a significant issue. 

[Deleted]

There is no way to actually avoid the 'idiocy' of EU and still be part of the one marketplace. More likely the UK (well England and Wales... i'm guessing scottland, Northern ireland and Gibralter exit) will be beholden to all the same regs... without any voting power. 

[ModE98]

VB Said: "Right now, my thinking is money in Europe if, it is pulled out, comes here to our markets.
There is always a flight to safety after a market fiasco, and we are it."
Could not agree more.  We are it.

[Value Buy]

So much for Brexit, at least for this week.
DOW 
June 15th  17,640,17
June 30th  17,929.99
Nasdaq
June 15th  4834.93
June 30th  4842.67
S&P 500
June 15th 2071.50
June 30th 2098.86
Utilities 
June 15th  679.46
June 30th  716.52
Transports
June 1st  7569.07
June 15th 7485.13

The transports are the only index that was down over the two week period.

[Ombud]

I'm so glad I dn pull 13% out of the market for a private venture! What happened to 'sell in May and go away?'

[ModE98]

Ombud:  Theories do not always follow the expected path as the markets march on.  Would not be a bit surprised if we are soon caught in a "bull trap" as new highs are reached and exceeded.  Correct or badly wrong, am expecting a nasty sell-off sometime soon and until the election is over and the political dust settles.  Building cash to buy future bargains.  Will see if it works out (or not). 

[Ombud]

Yes, Mod. Might be pulling it out in the next 7-10 days. Will know tomorrow

Interesting times

[ModE98]

The way the market is reacting after the Brexit scare and rethinking potential outcome for the Dow of 19000 (another 500 points) as money comes to the only "safe haven" from abroad over July, August & September, expect the market to continue upside with intermittent days of some profit taking until near election time.  All bets are off, post-election, depending on the result. 
Will try to take all the profits I can the first half of Sept., get into as much cash as I can, and wait for the chips to fall as they may.  Reinvest when things settle down.  This election is so divided, and emotions so high on far left and far right, it may be likely to cause a sell-down either way. 

(Well, just my thought and plan of action...just have to wait and see if I'm correct in thinking or horribly wrong).


              

[Deleted]

So you think this will continue until fall? I was just looking for somewhere to say WTF is happening to the market? 

[ModE98]

It appears that the Dow may make around 19000 by mid-Sept if the current trend can continue.  Of course, some snafu could pop up and spoil the party. 

Trying to figure out the market's future moves is mostly an exercise of futility.  But, nevertheless we try (win some/lose some). 

[Value Buy]

Jul 14, 2016 18:08:24 GMT -5 ModE98 said:

It appears that the Dow may make around 19000 by mid-Sept if the current trend can continue.  Of course, some snafu could pop up and spoil the party. 

Trying to figure out the market's future moves is mostly an exercise of futility.  But, nevertheless we try (win some/lose some). 

And then if it looks like Trump wins as a Republican, we see a sell off due to historical data a Republican President elect presages a sell off of stocks.

[Deleted]

Or because we are moving to Italy...

[Deleted]

Apart from the Brexit, i think the U.S. presidential elections are also going to have an impact on the stock market, as it has always been.

[The Virginian]

Stay the Course - History is on your side as long as your time frame is Long :

stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/marketindexes.html