The current state of the stock markets

[Value Buy]

Chicago PMI number was a bummer this morning, missing by almost five points.

[Ombud]

@di has gotten me into selling puts. If the market tanks, I don't mind owning these stocks but I'd rather have them expire worthless in November 2015

[Deleted]

Sept 28, 2015 20:43:51 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Saudi Arabia has been selling stock positions to pay for their country's patronage lifestyle system due to the drop in oil revenue.
I understand they have liquidated well over 60 billion dollars worth so far.
I know in the grand scheme of things with the markets, it is pocket change, but since they are also no longer making purchases of stocks it is probably worth twice the amount of stock sales taken out of the markets.
With Canada in recession all of South America hurting, and China messed up, I think it is easy to say the amount of money no longer going into the markets is enormous.

We better hope the water discovered on Mars can sustain little green investors!

Agree with your points though, I heard someone talking on the radio the other day how the US avoided the issues with the Asia crisis in the late 90's but now the world is more connected so we will be impacted more by it going forward.

[Deleted]

Ombud

RE: Post #346

       Don't blame me, LOL {Joking}. Seriously though, now that you have been doing them for awhile and have gotten used to how the way things look in your portfolio; while some are in play, I would venture to say you rather like the idea/action?

Additionally, from your post you seem to infer that you are still running Level 1 Cash Secured (presumed from how "close" the expiries are).

If, possibly you might be interested in expanding on the idea, hit me up in my thread and ask all the questions you might have to that extent; I will answer what I can.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sept 30, 2015 12:34:59 GMT -5 @aj said:

Sept 28, 2015 20:43:51 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Saudi Arabia has been selling stock positions to pay for their country's patronage lifestyle system due to the drop in oil revenue.
I understand they have liquidated well over 60 billion dollars worth so far.
I know in the grand scheme of things with the markets, it is pocket change, but since they are also no longer making purchases of stocks it is probably worth twice the amount of stock sales taken out of the markets.
With Canada in recession all of South America hurting, and China messed up, I think it is easy to say the amount of money no longer going into the markets is enormous.

We better hope the water discovered on Mars can sustain little green investors!

Agree with your points though, I heard someone talking on the radio the other day how the US avoided the issues with the Asia crisis in the late 90's but now the world is more connected so we will be impacted more by it going forward.

It's more or less recycled from Alan Greenspan. He didn't believe that the US would be an oasis so he cut rates. The U.S. was, and some say the rate cut was a big factor in the technology bubble getting out of hand.

JMOs, but it's more of the same this time around, just much, much worse for the Eastern Hemisphere. The US - with GDP revised up - is clearly the strength in the weakness, and with the biggest war in history breaking out US manufacturing is poised to explode. Plus, the biggest changes during the last two WW actually came in the energy space - people were powering their cars with coal in Europe - then there is the whole food thing.

Thank God for North America because you can bet the rest of the world will be.

[Value Buy]

October was a really good month for the stock markets, except for the oil exploration area.
Hard to believe we are about even on the year with all the turmoil set in just a couple of months making it look and feel like a possible collapse in the markets.

Just read an article where the refiners are making money based on low oil price and not so low gasoline prices, skimming probably too strong of a description) a couple billion dollars from the American consumer this fall.
Seems Americans do not care whether retail gasoline follows oil cost as long as the price per gallon is down form the last few years highs.

www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/prices-at-gasoline-pump-are-falling-but-not-as-much-as-oil/ar-BBmJs8X

[Deleted]

Value Buy

I sure as heck don't have an issue with Super 93 being at $2.695 per Gallon. Beats the hell of Super 93 being at $4.156 per gallon (which it was 1 year ago where I am at).

My car can run on 83 octane, but it runs like crap. 89 octane (mid grade) is the lowest recommended for my car and is $2.563 per gallon, but the car really likes the Super 93 (got a big Hemi) so for roughly $0.11 cents more, no brainer for me.

Sadly, low gas prices won't last; sigh. $50 a full tank now, is far nicer than $100 a full tank a year ago.

[clarkrl2]

Even though US refiners pay prices for crude more in line with WTI the price/gallon for gasoline is tied to Brent. So a large spread between Brent and WTI also favors refiners.

[Value Buy]

Nov 2, 2015 11:01:30 GMT -5 clarkrl2 said:

Even though US refiners pay prices for crude more in line with WTI the price/gallon for gasoline is tied to Brent. So a large spread between Brent and WTI also favors refiners.

Yes, and the thing is we do not import that much from overseas anymore.

And do not forget some refiners are refining tar sands, buying at under $30 a barrel, although refining that stuff probably costs more than normal crude, but I sincerely doubt there is a $10 a barrel refining cost differential.


Anyway, we digress, and that is on me.

The stock market seems to be fine, but if a company misses earnings, man are they punished hard.

Right now the small individual investor can take a big hit on a ten stock portfolio with just one loser in there. Mutual funds, some etf's or stock indexes are looking a little more stable to me right now. 
I also see many private fund managers are missing the target much worse than some of us small investors are right now. Some of their lack of return is horrendous

[Value Buy]

We are down to seven stock holdings and three mutual funds right now.
JPM was the only stock holding up Friday, and all three mutual funds were slightly positive.
Portfolio was green by $900 even with six losers, and that is because JPM was so strong.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Nov 2, 2015 14:52:32 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

And do not forget some refiners are refining tar sands, buying at under $30 a barrel, although refining that stuff probably costs more than normal crude, but I sincerely doubt there is a $10 a barrel refining cost differential.

That's actually a great point as to why a major disruption in the oil supply wouldn't be a huge issue right off the start. We need like 2-3 years to build up a bit more crude supply, my gut tells me we'll get it.

[Value Buy]

portfolio took a big hit yesterday.
It was the mutual funds that took the big hit this time, although two stocks were positive.

[Value Buy]

Well today is looking bleak too.
All seven holdings are bleeding red.
Kick in the mutual funds tonight, and a serious number of dollars will disappear.
Hopefully just for a day or two.

[ModE98]

Fully agree, VB.  A yukky day at ethe track.

[Value Buy]

Well today is different
Up 368 points right now.

December is going to be a bad month emotionally at this rate.
I will stroke out by next weekend!

[ModE98]

VB, it's going to be an "interesting" month with the Fed now most likely to begin raising the interest rate.  Would expect it to be very small to start and a slow raise frequency pattern.  What reaction will the markets have?  Guess we should really not be too surprised on anything that happens, just need to reason out our investments and make small adjustments as may be needed as things play out.                                       

[Value Buy]

Dec 4, 2015 17:20:42 GMT -5 ModE98 said:

VB, it's going to be an "interesting" month with the Fed now most likely to begin raising the interest rate.  Would expect it to be very small to start and a slow raise frequency pattern.  What reaction will the markets have?  Guess we should really not be too surprised on anything that happens, just need to reason out our investments and make small adjustments as may be needed as things play out.                                       

I think it will be a non-event when it happens.
The markets are spastic now in anticipation of the rate increase, and the big money guys will be in the position they want when it happens, and not after.

[tyfighter3]

It could be like throwing gas on a fire.

[Deleted]

tyfighter3

We have been saying that for going on 3 years. The question at this point is; does a rate increase (when & if it ever happens) cause a valuation correction both in large cap equities & bond prices ?

And if it does; how seismic is the revaluation on both aspects ? The larger the shift, the bigger the bonfire; which seems nearly a moot aspect at this point. What doesn't seem moot is the pace of a revaluation shift in those instruments.

Meaning that when folks no longer are forced to have to pile into over crowded trades in large caps for meager returns and no longer have to pay major premiums to face value on bonds; how quickly does capital flood out of those, to a "safer" place (Cash) for the similar return?

So really one must ponder, will the result start as a brush fire slowly building to an inferno or will it come out the gate as a full on firestorm leaving scorched earth in it's wake?

[Ombud]

Bond fund liquidated: 3rd Ave Focused Credit Fund. Who's next?

2 of mine doing fine (MWTRX & USATX), 1 sucks (PONDX)

Hoping fed raises rates on Wednesday & that helps balance out my bank stocks (BAC & JPM)

Meanwhile my DIS & TWX having issues so I might have to wonder if they're long term investments or trades

[Value Buy]

Dec 14, 2015 15:09:21 GMT -5 Ombud said:

Bond fund liquidated: 3rd Ave Focused Credit Fund. Who's next?

2 of mine doing fine (MWTRX & USATX), 1 sucks (PONDX)

Hoping fed raises rates on Wednesday & that helps balance out my bank stocks (BAC & JPM)

Meanwhile my DIS & TWX having issues so I might have to wonder if they're long term investments or trades

After today's market action JPM is not looking so hot
The Fed may have to re-think their next move and not raise interest rates for awhile.
The rest of the world is slowly sinking into a morass.

[Value Buy]

Okay, we had a bad stock trading day today, but look at the darn commodity traders in oil today.

Oil was up across the world before our markets opened by about 2% due to Saudi Arabia and Iran  bickering and rattling sabres at each other.
We opened up around 2% on wti futures and later in the day sold off about 3/4ths of a percent.
How in the heck can you play that outcome?
I know there is a ton of oil, but with the ME in complete turmoil, oil prices fall?
Heck it was even announced Libya has problems with ISIS that might curtail production, or at least stop any increase in production.

The stock and commodity markets are not following the usual expected direction and rotation of past years of following international news, other than if China and Europe markets sell off, we follow along for a day or two.

[Value Buy]

Good start to the day.
Recovered $16,000 from my $17,000 paper loss from yesterday.
Utilities and JPM pulling me up today.

I am getting a little worried with the portfolio.
Down just under 13% since early December.

[Value Buy]

Should add to the above post, Chevron and Exxon are up 4% today too.
Oil futures up 3.5% today.

XOM was a positive stock yesterday. I am wondering if the markets are signaling the low in oil futures right now.

[Value Buy]

Is anyone else bothered about the world markets and the condition they are in?
I wonder why no one of importance in the banking world or stock markets ever mention the Greek emergency of a year ago?
Have they solved all their banking and social program problems? They have solved nothing.
Wasn't Greece and Italy on the verge of a banking collapse?
Nary a mention these days. It was going to bring down the European Union, but not mentioned or discussed today.
It is all about China and their economy.
Puerto Rico has been in the news lately about their pending bankruptcy, but nothing about Europe and Europe has to deal with a million refugees straining all the countries' finances.
It seems the markets no longer worry about important issues very long, even though nothing has changed and pick a new nag to take the markets down.

[clarkrl2]

I am not a chartist but this long term chart of the S&P 500 makes me wonder if 1600ish isn't the next major level of support for the index.

bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=sp500&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=20

[clarkrl2]

For the Russell 2000 maybe in the area of 850.

bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=rut&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=20

[Value Buy]

Anyone here think Freeport, US Steel, or Alcoa might be good buys right now?

They are so cheap.
If we have hit near bottom on commodities, it might be the time.
I am talking two to five year time frame.

[ModE98]

VB, looking strictly at a 2 -5 time frame, probably YES, assuming the risk there may still be another 10-20% market downside yet to come.  But, who honestly knows if the bull is ready to charge as yet?

[Value Buy]

Thinking of 400 shares of X. Their USW contract has been pretty much settled, so that is out of the way.
Freeport, might wait a month or so, then 200 shares. Metal commodities have to show a definite turnaround first.
Alcoa, just not sure about. Market just does not treat them well even if earnings are decent.