Terminal Decline?Doubtful.The American Renaissance

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I truly hope and pray that President Trump is trying to turn his personal life around, because you have to hand it to the guy; his negotiating skills, business acumen and ability to troll the media - almost daily - are pure genius.

He has defied his critics since he was "never going to win the primaries," and his latest move with walking away from the table to force Kim's hand was sheer brilliance. His approval numbers continue to trend upward due to the 2%+ first quarter GDP; AKA, the entire country is benefiting from the policies and deals already put in place. Plus, he's following through on his immigration and security policy.

While the media will try and pin the coming Asian Crisis and War that have been building these past years ‎on President Trump, I can totally see him being able to put them in their place and defy his critics further, just like he has with the wire taps and Russian collusion. It's going to be interesting to see the guy win a second term in 2020.
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[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

U.S. retail sales jump 0.8% in May, point to strong second-quarter GDP: or, a picture is worth a thousand words.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's awesome when something happens that really reminds ya of why - in this case - a thread was started.

The story of Detroit coming back has been a re-occurring topic, and now across the isle on the political landscape. The importance of this bipartisan story is business is the common uniting force. While politics continues to divide, business keeps the economy going. You can find examples of greed anywhere, but there are enough good business people doing the right thing every generation to keep the economy alive. This is what makes America different than influential countries past; free enterprise.

Detroit: Comeback City' trailer focuses on city's fall, resurgence

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

With the US economy humming along in part due to tax breaks and business deals President Trump has put in place; it seems like a great time to point out Fewest Americans Earning Poverty-Level Wages.

I'm going to add the chart from the article:



This chart and data is very important to the debate about wages. Due to the fact of the explosive growth in the service sector since the 1960's, entry level job wages have stagnated due to the low wage nature of flipping burgers. However, while the average wage maybe skewed due to these low entry points, the data on what people actually earn from the article above correlates with the drop in poverty levels seen since the 1960s.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

This should probably be filed under The Death of Socialism; however, due to the overwhelming amount of data in the article which supports discussions that support the data in this thread.....

Tax Cuts Work

Deficits rise only because governments keep spending too much

It happened again. Tax receipts soared in the United States after the recent tax cuts.

Although it will take a while for the full effect of the 2017 tax reform to kick in, U.S. state and local government tax revenue climbed to $350.2 billion in the first quarter of 2018, a rise of 5.8 percent compared with the same time period in 2017. Individual income tax collections had big gains for a second-straight quarter with a 12.8 percent increase to $107.4 billion in 2018’s first quarter.

...The example of more than 200 cases in 21 countries shows that tax cuts and expenditure reductions are much more effective in boosting growth and prosperity than increasing government spending.

Multiple studies conclude that in more than 170 cases, the impact of tax cuts has been much more positive for growth....

...The mistake of pointing at deficits as proof that tax cuts don’t work is debunked by looking at the proposals of the same economists that argue against tax cuts. Economist Paul Krugman is one example. He argued against tax cuts in his New York Times article “Time to Borrow” after the Obama administration increased debt by $10 trillion. These demand-side economists defend deficit spending, yet consider tax cuts as negative … because deficits may increase. Only Keynesian economists manage to pull off such mindbending logic....

...There are plenty more examples globally. Professor Juan Manuel Lopez-Zafra from CUNEF in Madrid points to a few:

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Some economists say it can't last; it's going to be interesting to see the prints once the economy loves what the market hates kicks in. President Business focuses on security!

Second-quarter’s GDP reading came in at 4.1%

Trump administration to take a victory lap, claiming that late-2017 corporate tax cuts and a number of other stimulative measures enacted over the past several months are bearing fruit. The current print may still be sufficiently strong for the administration to claim victory. Additionally, the first-quarter reading of GDP was lifted to 2.2% from a first read of 2.0%.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Looks like the economic miracle that is President Trump? The Great Stagnation in raw data, that's for sure.

What Truckers & Railroads Just Said about the US Economy

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

And a American manufacturers growing at fastest pace in 14 years, ISM finds... which - from what I have been told these past 18 months - isn’t possible.

[tyfighter3]

The proof is in the pudding. LOL

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The buck stops here my friend as we answer that age old question, "where's the beef?"

[tyfighter3]

OH no, Beef Pudding. How can it get any better? lol

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Stack it on some cheese fries and call it a puddin' pony? lol...

[tyfighter3]

I'm ready for one. LOL To bad nobody knows what we are talking about.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Isn't that kinda the way it always goes though? LoL..

[OldCoyote]

Aug 20, 2018 1:02:03 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Looks like the economic miracle that is President Trump? The Great Stagnation in raw data, that's for sure.

What Truckers & Railroads Just Said about the US Economy

Wow, look at that Trump's year as compared to the Obama's years!!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

No doubt hey? Best part is they took out the early Obama years to show a fair comparison and it makes Obama's recent speech look so very sad. Yes, he's correct the economy is essentially running on the same things as when he was in office. In fact, the first few deals President Trump made after taking office were simply finishing off deals Obama let linger for years.(documented earlier in this thread)

 So, had Obama been just a little bit pro‎ business the economy would have done much better under his watch. But, like Ty said; the proof is in the pudding. His numbers were terrible. However, the US economy is the most resilient economy in, arguably, written history. So, now that someone is in Office  who wants to see the US economy successful based on what works, not and agenda; all of a sudden thing that were never supposed to be possible based on the Social Justice Economics that took hold during the previous residency, are now happening. Hiring because of tax cuts; check. GDP growth up and growing between 4-5%; check. I could go on but...

[OldCoyote]

Yesterday I was on a job in Flagstaff AZ,, Stopped at McDonalds, Wow I see some really nice equipment,,

It is apparent that McDonalds is gearing up for the coming labor shortage,, The machines that work without an employee running them!!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

As you know, robotic trends are data points tracked around these parts. The move to automation started before President Trump was in office. In fact, the big push came when ppl started thinking low paying menial jobs were meant to provide a living wage.

I do agree, however, coming trends in immigration are going to go a long way in the move towards automation.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Gotta luv it!

Shareholders Aren’t Gaining From Tax Cuts as Much as Some Think

a fairer way to look at it is to measure that spending as a ratio against companies’ market value. By that calculation, buybacks, while up this year, are still below several quarters during President Barack Obama’s administration. And dividends are actually down...

...Year-over-year capital expenditure growth was higher for the fourth consecutive quarter and is poised to be positive yet again for the three months ending Sept. 30.

As the chart in the article clearly outlines; essentially zero CAPEX growth from 2013 to 2017. AkA, what could have been if there would have been a pro economy President in office.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

All I would add to the article below is how the American left still just doesn't seem to understand that a large portion of the population wanted someone in office that was going to get the job done; it was never about their personal life. The data outlining the Obama economy above is the, why.

I do believe Bernie Sanders would have beaten President Trump. However, as information outlined on a different thread points out, there was a little bit of treason going on.

Oh, and not only did both the US and Canada get what they wanted out of the USMCA, there was also a deal made to resolve a WTO dispute over wine in BC.

Even the media is having to admit the President Trump is getting the job done.

(The Trump way often works) It drives the media, Democrats and more than half of America mad, but President Trump's unorthodox, jam-your-opponent style can be effective.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Add up the economic info above and this what you get:

Third-quarter GDP cools a bit to a still-solid 3.5% rate

The economy looks like it will expand above a 3% rate in 2018. That hasn’t happened since 2005.

While I wouldn't go as far as calling President Trump an economic miracle, as some have. But, I would say it has become very clear just how poor of a job Obama did during his administration.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

More impossible data! Which is the wow for those not reading around here..

-Economists ‘wowed’ by October jobs report as wage growth picks up
-Wages rise at fastest pace in nine years as U.S. adds 250,000 jobs in October

[tyfighter3]

Like I said, The proof is in the pudding.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Yet, for two years the democrats were able to convince themselves and others this was all fake news. Now, the record spinners have had to tuck tails - again -‎ and return to their echo chambers. Convincing themselves and others the economy is doing great now because Obama's economy was great...which of course lands us right back to the data which proves the exact opposite.... just gotta love that circular logic.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

A bit more on post #315... a milestone that could have been achieved in 2014: The U.S. Just Became a Net Oil Exporter for the First Time in 75 Years.

And then, more "pudding" as it were to go with the data that has come in on the economy since President Trumps policies were put in place: ISM services index registers second-strongest reading in 13 years

I have been saying the next cycle = economy, love; market, hate.

Stay

[Deleted]

Quite the echo chamber in here, we went from celebrating the falling deficit on page 4 to celebrating the debt-fueled economy surge in the last couple pages with no mention of the deficit.  This is going to be a hard landing at some point, I think we end up a lot like Japan with very slow growth.  The wildcard is being the reserve currency, will that continue.  

Whole article is relevant:



www.investors.com/news/us-national-debt-spirals-washington-budget-deficit-spending/

I do find it hilarious though his religious supporters hypocritically brushing aside his moral failings that anyone from a different party would be lambasted for, perhaps the prayers aren't working.  And note, not a Democrat, Clinton or Obama supporter, just someone concerned about how bad it will be when the debt fueled punch bowl runs dry.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Page 4. You mean prior to me having an entire thread dedicated to the debt super cycle which is coming to an end? The death of socialism - which I am still updating? Yeah, been covering that as well. The whole; the market is going to hate the next cycle thing I mentioned in my last post on THIS thread....

You see, an echo chamber is when an assertion is made like; Trump is going to kill the economy, Trump is..etc, etc.. Then you have a bunch of ppl pile on with no actual facts,‎ just; I hate, blah, blah, blah... However, thank you for pointing out the years and years of accurate data based trend forecasting; regardless of who is in power. AkA, the proof is in the pudding.‎  
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The idea of one single reserve currency is slowing dying out as the world starts walking on two legs(somethings else I cover at lenght). Plus, when looking at the petro dollar and the news of oil exports; now dollars are recycled at home instead of in the House of Saud. (Something else discussed at length around here)‎ Also, this is something Japan would never be able to accomplish.

And as for the attack on morals is concerned; for me, the reason I supported Trump over Hillary was because of their positions on North America. The easiest way to explain it is had Hillary won; right now there would be a "migration" crisis in the US the same as it is in Europe. ‎(Migrant Caravan!!).  Further, it's been stated repeatedly; no one thought Trump was a great guy or some kind of moral compass to be followed. It came down to there is something terribly, terribly wrong with the other choice, along with the upper power structure in the Democratic Party. All the people who "aren't Obama or Hillary supporters" need to grasp this very simple concept if they want to have even the slightest chance of getting Trump out in 2020.
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[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

To celebrate the eve of 2019, a look back at some key data...

Dec 20, 2017 15:43:33 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Imposible; there is no way a pro growth environment, fostered by a pro business President adding $$$$ SUPPLY to the economy, could lead to increased aggregate demand and economic growth.

AT&T is giving $1,000 bonuses to 200,000 employees after tax bill(The company also increased its capital expenditures budget by $1 billion in the U.S.)

Dec 22, 2017 1:29:19 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

none of this is happening. All that these tax breaks will do is cause selfish people to buy houses on the beach, etc, etc; which even though the money supply is spent on goods, will do nothing to increase demand or growth.

-Wells Fargo, Fifth Third Bancorp unveil minimum wage hikes after tax bill passage
-After tax bill's passage, Comcast announces bonuses for 100,000 employees
-Boeing applauds tax bill with $300 million workforce-related and charitable investment plan

Jan 11, 2018 14:24:50 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Seems an apt time to post the following thoughts here:

Nov 20, 2017 0:40:25 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I think one of the reasons "Reganomics" is viewed as a failure stems from one very important fact: "For years after World War II, the U.S. was a singular economic powerhouse with an enormous manufacturing base that employed nearly 40% of the economy."

While it's not a popular situation, the trickle down was felt in China and other places more than in the USA. This in turn created demand in what is now the second largest economy in the world - which has the largest consumer base on the planet. Wages have been rising in China which has started to drive the trend of reshoring.

It's not hard to imagine if business have more money, they have more money to invest...

Personally, this is why I don't hold modern economic theories in high regard and - ImO - the answers are in a combination of classical and German/Austrian theories. History shows that both taxes and income inequality kill economies. The liberalism of trade and finance at the start of the industrial revolution until now has trickled more wealth to the common person than at any point in human history. From this point forward we need to be thinking more along the lines of; "what's old is new."

As it's interesting to note what happens when you let businesses decide what to do with their money(to increase their bottom line); as opposed to trying to force a fix.

Walmart rollbacks ahead: Retailer expected to use tax windfall to fund price cuts

With the new tax legislation, analysts speculate Walmart will invest in dropping prices even lower across its stores.

The retailer has already announced plans to give back millions of dollars to its employees through wage increases and one-time bonuses.

Jan 12, 2018 14:39:23 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

With the announcement of Fiat Chrysler to Invest $1 Billion, Pay Bonuses on U.S. Tax Cut; we now have hundreds of thousands of workers across all sectors of the economy receiving extra money. Add to that: China cutting tariffs, big deals being made like the Foxxcon plant in Wisconsin, aid cut to Pakistan & The U.N.....

Now, if only 50% of S&P/DOW companies earnings didn't come from overseas; fundamentals could catch up to stock prices we would really be firing on all cylinders into Global Free Enterprise.(Which is precisely what I thought would happen when the Free Enterprise thread was created back in 2011) Ah well, the economy (earnings) and the market have been disjointed for a few years now, what's another 7 or 8 when the end result will be the start of the biggest long term bull run in human history? Thanks JC.

Feb 2, 2018 19:58:11 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Very interesting to note; America gets a raise: Wage growth fastest since 2009.. As we crossover into the death of Socialism with; Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan partner to cut U.S. healthcare costs.

It will also be interesting to see if this holds; Economy to grow at 5.4% rate in first quarter, Atlanta Fed tracker shows. Because 1) all the deals outlined over the last year and 2)...

Nov 29, 2017 14:51:23 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Another thought I had, while companies like P&G and Nestle Stand to Gain From China's Lower Import Taxes there is also midsized to smaller businesses which stand to gain from the increased demand from these tax breaks. Where it gets really interesting is the Lunar New year lands squarely in Q1. With all this potential for increasing demand from overseas, there is a chance that US Q1 growth could kick he trend of 0-1% growth. Something to keep in mind anyway.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

All the data above is very important to note because while companies did invest, they also bought shares at a clip. Where did that money come from? A large portion was from another policy President Trump put in place: U.S. companies repatriate over half a trillion dollars in 2018.

So, another year of fear about the US economy failed to materialize any results. In fact, now that the data is in, President Trump's policies have been proven successful. With the Democrats taking control of the house due to FUD, and Warren throwing her hat in the ring; any economic weakness from political fighting moving forward will be pinned squarely on the opposition to successful planning.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Stocks hate what the economy loves...bring on the volatility!!

-U.S. gains 312,000 jobs in 10-month high that shattered Wall Street forecasts
-The 3.2% annual jump in average annual earnings ties with October as the best since April 2009.