Terminal Decline?Doubtful.The American Renaissance

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I think this is what you were talking about wyouser... Trump effect on full display in the Senate Thursday with a majority embracing a trade-deal opponent

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Apr 12, 2017 0:18:10 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

About time!

Cohn Backs Wall Street Split of Lending, Investment Banks

And then:

-President Trump Is Considering Breaking Up Big Banks
-Trump is considering new Glass-Steagall-style bank rules (So nice, it needs to be said twice. )

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

About the Federal Reserves decision yesterday....

May 6, 2017 9:32:35 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Maturity to remittance; means not just a draw down on one balance sheet!

Fed officials say balance sheet could be slashed in half to $2 trillion

And the deals President Trump helped pave the way for earlier this year are starting to come to fruition: iPhone manufacturer Foxconn eyes Wisconsin for new plant

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The underlying message in this article; the world is mad at President Trump because he's putting the U.S.A. first; which means others will have to start standing up for themselves.

As Trump tries to pull the U.S. back from the global stage, other nations face an uncomfortable truth

Talk of leaders like German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping stepping in to fill the void and uphold global governance on major issues such as free trade, climate change and security can be expected. But there is an underlying reality to that narrative that should be kept in mind.

Simply put, those hoping to fill the United States’ shoes in leading the world still have their own existential threats to contend with at home.

Germany and France are buying valuable time with their electorates to try to repair the European Union and make an example of the United Kingdom’s departure, but the bloc’s members still have vastly different visions of what European integration should look like and how nationalism might fit in.

China, meanwhile, is not a globalist power with a model of governance to offer the world; it is a fiercely nationalist power with global clout, caught between the compulsion to operate as a market economy and the imperative to centralize political power under the ruling Communist Party. None of these countries come close to matching the U.S. military footprint or the country’s ability to shoulder the burden that comes with superpower status.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

More deals happening!

Jeff Bezos rocket company Blue Origin to build Alabama factory

Siemens pumps millions into Massachusetts facility, creates 1K jobs

Siemens is breaking ground in Massachusetts on Friday to build a diagnostics, manufacturing and engineering site...

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Of course the author has to slant the article towards President Trump potentially ruining the trend, and the title is ridiculous; but the math is in there. This also crosses into the Free Enterprise thread; it's all about balance!

Will China Save the American Economy?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Feb 9, 2017 14:05:51 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Intel Corp. Announces $7 Billion Investment in Arizona Plant

Intel's plans involve opening a manufacturing plant in Chandler known as Fab 42 that was largely completed several years ago but never put in service, the official said. That facility drew praise from then-President Barack Obama in 2012 for its potential to bring more manufacturing jobs to the U.S. But the company announced in 2014 that plans had changed and the plant wouldn't be opening after all, amid changing market conditions.

Changing market conditions indeed!

Manufacturing Pickup Signals Boost to U.S. Economic Growth

Factory index rose to 57.8, highest since August 2014 (est. 55.3) from 54.9 in May; readings above 50 indicate growth
ISM’s gauge of new orders increased to three-month high of 63.5 from 59.5
Measure of production picked up, while employment gauge climbed to the second-highest level since 2011

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The times, they are a changing!

Trump Just Redefined Western Values Around Faith, Not Democracy

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

G-20 Outcome Shows Trump's America Is Going Its Own Way

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's a one two combo, followed by an uppercut!

All cash deals on houses for years have lead a recovery that FED watchers have continued to call wrong; while money from China has poured into said housing along with manufacturing; manufacturing which has been aided by a weaker dollar, and a weaker dollar has made said all cash deals more lucrative for people outside the USA!

Deals, deals, deals!!!

Foxconn pledges to build $10 billion state-of-the-art electronics plant in Wisconsin

“We are thrilled to build a state-of-the art display fabrication plant in America’s heartland, which will be the first of a series of facilities we are building in several U.S. states as part of a robust 8K+5G ecosystem in the United States,” Gou said.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The strength in the weakness grows stronger: GDP grows at stronger-than-forecast 3% rate in third quarter

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

to this whole thread!!

Good times may be over for overseas shopping agents as China cuts import tariffs

It is thought to be part of a shift towards creating a consumption-driven economy, and signalling to the world, especially the US, that it is opening up its economy.

US President Donald Trump has long complained of unfair trade practices by China and wants to reduce America's deficit with the country.
Domestically, there is increasing demand for foreign brands, especially after a number of food-safety scandals.

Doug Lippoldt, chief trade economist at HSBC, said the cuts in the import tariffs were positive and part of an "on-going process" by the government.
"The reduction of import tariffs on clothing, dairy products, food and other consumer items mean domestic suppliers will have to become more competitive, which will benefit the Chinese economy and consumers in the long run.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Now that tariffs (taxes) have been reduced on American products to China, manufacturing contracts have been put into place to increase the supply of well paying jobs...

Nov 24, 2017 20:53:47 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Another interesting hypothetical to consider, social spending has essentially "kept the population at bay." If we eliminate social spending, all of a sudden it's on the corporate world to keep people happy.

Trump signals welfare reform is next, with details to come

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

With the revision upward in US GDP I thought it would interesting to dive into the numbers a bit.

inventories, goods yet to be sold, accounted for nearly a quarter of GDP growth.

Like when one goes to the grocery store expecting food to be there, or why you don't have to custom order an electronic device, or how car dealerships essentially order a year's worth of supply in early summer for the following year...

Weird..

Another thought I had, while companies like P&G and Nestle Stand to Gain From China's Lower Import Taxes there is also midsized to smaller businesses which stand to gain from the increased demand from these tax breaks. Where it gets really interesting is the Lunar New year lands squarely in Q1. With all this potential for increasing demand from overseas, there is a chance that US Q1 growth could kick he trend of 0-1% growth. Something to keep in mind anyway.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's important to note; Surge in manufacturing jobs causes private payrolls to rise more than expected in November. More importantly though(and this is coming from CNN!):

Donald Trump -- keeper of promises

A politician who actually does what he told voters he would do seems almost unfathomable in Washington...

...On Wednesday, Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital, defying international fury, and promised to move the US Embassy there from Tel Aviv, a step considered too risky by his immediate predecessors.
"When I came into office, I promised to look at the world's challenges with open eyes and very fresh thinking," Trump said in the first words of a speech on Wednesday outlining a sharp shift in Israel policy.

"We cannot solve our problems by making the same failed assumptions and repeating the same failed strategies of the past," he said.
He's also lived up to his wider, conceptual promise of being a disruptive force in Washington and around the world. US enemies now lack the comfort of a predictable adversary, as do domestic adversaries -- and allies....

...Trump has also been as good as his word in other areas.
As promised, he has moved to renegotiate NAFTA, pulled out of the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, walked out of the Paris climate accord, targeted the Iran nuclear deal and introduced a travel ban for residents of some majority Muslim nations, while adopting other radical immigration policies.

Trump vowed to preside over economic growth and set the stock market soaring. The gross domestic product expanded 3.3% in the third quarter, a three-year high, and the Dow just topped 24,000 points.
The message from the White House is that Trump is making good on his promise to shake things up.

"While previous presidents have made this a major campaign promise, they failed to deliver. Today, I am delivering," the President said.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Now, Bloomberg is forced to admit that President Trump's deals from the start of the year are starting to get the US economy out of the NObama rut. Of course still speculating in the second half of the article that things aren't heading in the right direction, of course...

Is Trump Making America Great Again? Kind Of.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Imposible; there is no way a pro growth environment, fostered by a pro business President adding $$$$ SUPPLY to the economy, could lead to increased aggregate demand and economic growth.

AT&T is giving $1,000 bonuses to 200,000 employees after tax bill(The company also increased its capital expenditures budget by $1 billion in the U.S.)

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

none of this is happening. All that these tax breaks will do is cause selfish people to buy houses on the beach, etc, etc; which even though the money supply is spent on goods, will do nothing to increase demand or growth.

-Wells Fargo, Fifth Third Bancorp unveil minimum wage hikes after tax bill passage
-After tax bill's passage, Comcast announces bonuses for 100,000 employees
-Boeing applauds tax bill with $300 million workforce-related and charitable investment plan

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Well, Manufacturing in the U.S. Just Accelerated to Its Best Year Since 2004; or an even better way of looking at it, ISM manufacturing and construction spending both clock gains

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Cut off money into nothing and add to the economic multiplier.

Trump backs Sen. Paul's plan to fund infrastructure projects with suspended aid to Pakistan

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Through all the gnashing, numbers are always fun!

Trump's grade on the economy bounces back to B+

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Seems an apt time to post the following thoughts here:

Nov 20, 2017 0:40:25 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I think one of the reasons "Reganomics" is viewed as a failure stems from one very important fact: "For years after World War II, the U.S. was a singular economic powerhouse with an enormous manufacturing base that employed nearly 40% of the economy."

While it's not a popular situation, the trickle down was felt in China and other places more than in the USA. This in turn created demand in what is now the second largest economy in the world - which has the largest consumer base on the planet. Wages have been rising in China which has started to drive the trend of reshoring.

It's not hard to imagine if business have more money, they have more money to invest...

Personally, this is why I don't hold modern economic theories in high regard and - ImO - the answers are in a combination of classical and German/Austrian theories. History shows that both taxes and income inequality kill economies. The liberalism of trade and finance at the start of the industrial revolution until now has trickled more wealth to the common person than at any point in human history. From this point forward we need to be thinking more along the lines of; "what's old is new."

As it's interesting to note what happens when you let businesses decide what to do with their money(to increase their bottom line); as opposed to trying to force a fix.

Walmart rollbacks ahead: Retailer expected to use tax windfall to fund price cuts

With the new tax legislation, analysts speculate Walmart will invest in dropping prices even lower across its stores.

The retailer has already announced plans to give back millions of dollars to its employees through wage increases and one-time bonuses.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

With the announcement of Fiat Chrysler to Invest $1 Billion, Pay Bonuses on U.S. Tax Cut; we now have hundreds of thousands of workers across all sectors of the economy receiving extra money. Add to that: China cutting tariffs, big deals being made like the Foxxcon plant in Wisconsin, aid cut to Pakistan & The U.N.....

Now, if only 50% of S&P/DOW companies earnings didn't come from overseas; fundamentals could catch up to stock prices we would really be firing on all cylinders into Global Free Enterprise.(Which is precisely what I thought would happen when the Free Enterprise thread was created back in 2011) Ah well, the economy (earnings) and the market have been disjointed for a few years now, what's another 7 or 8 when the end result will be the start of the biggest long term bull run in human history? Thanks JC.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Apple cites tax law in massive development plan

Apple, the world’s most valuable company that for years has faced criticism for stashing billions in profits overseas, announced a plan Wednesday to repatriate most of it, spend $350 billion in development and create 20,000 jobs in the United States in the next five years, citing the newly passed corporate-friendly tax law.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The hits keep on coming:

-Exxon Mobil announces $35 billion in new US investments over 5 years, citing tax reform
-FedEx responds to tax cuts with wage increase, capital improvements
-Starbucks Using Tax Cuts to Improve Pay, Benefits for Workers
-Home Depot giving $1,000 bonuses to U.S. workers after Trump tax cut

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Very interesting to note; America gets a raise: Wage growth fastest since 2009.. As we crossover into the death of Socialism with; Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan partner to cut U.S. healthcare costs.

It will also be interesting to see if this holds; Economy to grow at 5.4% rate in first quarter, Atlanta Fed tracker shows. Because 1) all the deals outlined over the last year and 2)...

Nov 29, 2017 14:51:23 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Another thought I had, while companies like P&G and Nestle Stand to Gain From China's Lower Import Taxes there is also midsized to smaller businesses which stand to gain from the increased demand from these tax breaks. Where it gets really interesting is the Lunar New year lands squarely in Q1. With all this potential for increasing demand from overseas, there is a chance that US Q1 growth could kick he trend of 0-1% growth. Something to keep in mind anyway.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Interesting.

Yes, Tax Cuts Really Are The Reason for Your Raise

bonuses and raises are perfectly in line with what economic theory predicts.

How Wages Are Determined
Wages are equivalent to the expected increase in revenue an individual’s labor generates for the business, or, equivalently, the amount which is expected to be lost if his or her labor went unemployed.

For example, imagine a restaurant employs 5 cooks who are capable of serving C number of customers per hour, earning E dollars in revenue. One cook wins the lottery and retires to the Bahamas, and now the restaurant is only capable of serving C-L customers, and consequently only earns X in revenue. Clearly, entrepreneurs will only be willing to pay the difference between E and X, a number which will be called W, to employ a fifth cook. W is what economists refer to as the marginal revenue product, and, thanks to competition in the labor market, wages tend towards this number in a free market, less a discount for time preference.

To see how taxation effects wages, imagine if every time the restaurant owner goes to deposit his firm’s earnings an armed robber stole 35% of the firm’s net income. Disregarding momentarily what that thief does with his loot, whether he builds roads or funds a study of cocaine’s effects on the promiscuity of Japanese quail, the moment the robbery occurs, the restaurant is making less money than before. It immediately renders the firm less efficient, and the money to be imputed back to the factors of production, including workers, is immediately smaller.1 Put another way: the revenue the firm can keep has now gone down, meaning revenue per employee goes down. This pushes wages down, even though, in a free market, the firm would have been willing to pay employees more....

.... The lesson is clear. If Congress and the Trump administration wish to see the welfare of the American people rise in a permanent fashion, they should follow their tax cuts with cuts in spending.

For instance; USDA prioritizes work for food stamp qualifiers in farm bill proposal

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Business acumen and great leadership skills. If only his personal life - which doesn't affect his professional life - wasn't such a sad story.

More winning!

-Some Steel and Aluminum Makers to Restart Plant Operations Amid Tariff Plans
-President Trump agrees to meet with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un
-North Korea Signals Willingness to 'Denuclearize,' South Says

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Manufacturing Jobs up 22,000 in March; 281,000 Under Trump

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Feb 2, 2018 19:58:11 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Very interesting to note; America gets a raise: Wage growth fastest since 2009.. As we crossover into the death of Socialism with; Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan partner to cut U.S. healthcare costs.

It will also be interesting to see if this holds; Economy to grow at 5.4% rate in first quarter, Atlanta Fed tracker shows. Because 1) all the deals outlined over the last year and 2)...

Nov 29, 2017 14:51:23 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Another thought I had, while companies like P&G and Nestle Stand to Gain From China's Lower Import Taxes there is also midsized to smaller businesses which stand to gain from the increased demand from these tax breaks. Where it gets really interesting is the Lunar New year lands squarely in Q1. With all this potential for increasing demand from overseas, there is a chance that US Q1 growth could kick he trend of 0-1% growth. Something to keep in mind anyway.

While I suspected the 5.4% was a bit high; weak Q1 streak snapped! With the cherry of higher wages on top.

President Business strikes again!

-First-quarter GDP grows solid 2.3% as businesses grab baton from consumers
-Wages, salaries in US rise at fastest pace in 11 years