Getting Rich in the Natural Gas, Coal & Oil Patch

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Well, it's been a while since there has been good news on the patch, and for the domestic economy it will take time for this to reverberate; however, this good news is right in line with the last two posts. While it's not good news on how we cut off imports from the Mid East, it's going to translate into work, work, work. It's also going to translate into Asia and Europe being more or less completely dependant on North American energy... Now all we have to do is figure out how to support our domestic energy supply when the demand for our "Natural Gas Oil Patch" goes into the stratosphere.

`Liquid Freedom' Sails From Texas, Tilting Power in Global Oil



For the Saudis and their OPEC cohorts, who collectively control 40 percent of the globe’s oil supply.....

....Meanwhile, the U.S. is also poised to make its first shipments of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, from shale onto world markets within weeks, about two months later than scheduled. Cheniere Energy Inc. expects to have about 9 million metric tons a year of LNG available for its own portfolio from nine liquefaction trains being developed at two complexes in Texas. That’s enough to power Norway and Denmark combined for a year.

[tyfighter3]

If you have a 5 year or longer time frame, it might be a good time to look again at the oil patch.

finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-production-wont-meet-demand-211405767.html

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

May 19, 2016 17:37:46 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

If you have a 5 year or longer time frame, it might be a good time to look again at the oil patch.

finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-production-wont-meet-demand-211405767.html

It could take a bit longer yet to work through the oversupply, though. Crude tanker storage fleet off Singapore points to stubborn oil glut Really points to how much the Middle East is producing.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Oh what fun it is to ride way ahead of the curve. Just going to change to title of this story a bit.

Can the U.S. is Becoming an Energy Superpower in 2017?

[tyfighter3]

It already IS, and finely it will be unleashed. Just check out where these oil stocks have come from their 52 week lows. Who said Energy stocks are beat down. LOL They have been on sale the past year.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

On sale; as you had previously mentioned.

Oh yes it's about to be unleashed, the Fischer-Tropsch process is going to be a game changer.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Only a few years behind schedule, but; Trump said to advance Keystone

[wyouser]

We have a little refinery in town here. I have been wondering for over a year if the folks who bought it and then dropped around 15 mill into it didn't see change on the horizon. Really good to see movement on pipelines. Wyoming has "HUGE" amounts of gas but no pipelines to get it where its needed. I see oil and gas moving up. Unfortunately for us coal will take longer. Obama really hammered them. (along with cheap gas prices) Ironic isn't it? The Powder River basin just west of here has enough coal to light the entire country for 500 years. (a coal seam the size of the state of New Hampshire that averages 90 feet thick and lies just 100 ft below the surface)

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

At $20-30 a barrel, some very sweet deals were made, agreed! Even as a Canadian I like the fact President Trump is using the keystone as leverage to renegotiate NAFTA. I would love to see a new North American(sans Mexico) trade agreement put in place.

The crazy thing about coal is that it's just one seam you are talking about! The map of coal beds across Canada and the US is insane. It's going to take a while for coal to turn around completely without a doubt; but as in the past it will. The death of coal was promised in the 1990's due to the clean air act, and the numbers since then?

[wyouser]

It's interesting to look at the exhaust coming out of the stacks of coal fired power plants here and compare to what the air looks like in China. There is no comparison. I think we have done a pretty good job in cleaning up those exhausts. Word from the coal guys is that we may see a revolution in techniques to handle carbon emissions in the very near future. I don't think coal is dead.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

That's exactly what is starting to happen in the coal industry. In fact, once restructured, my gut tells me it's going to come out swinging.

[tyfighter3]

This is a great read on the Oil Patch.

www.fool.com/investing/2017/01/27/undefined/investing/2017/01/27/undefined/investing/2017/01/27/undefined/investing/2017/01/27/undefined/investing/2017/01/27/undefined/investing/2017/01/27/this-bakken-shale-oil-stock-doubled-in-2016-but-it.aspx

[djAdvocate]

the chart in 276 looks like a "bottoming trend" to me. 

Aman: do you think that we can get production to uptick this year and keep that trend moving down?

NOTE: although good for the country, this trend is not good for my holdings at all, which depend on high energy prices. 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The chart in #276 was the bottoming for sure, great time to look at getting into some money back in 2016.

It's all about imports from here on out. If Trump cuts OPEC imports North American production will jump, obviously. Right now would be the key time to do it to because there is massive supply, so no worries about an oil shock.

I think energy prices for this year will probably come down to US GDP. Two Q of 3.5% GDP and oil will probably be at like $80 with the way asset prices move these days.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

With the bankruptcy of Westinghouse(probably the end of nuclear), Government subsides hitting the debt wall; it's going to come down to efficiency in our energy systems, as is on display in Australia & Japan.

We love technology!!

Coal as 'Clean' as Natural Gas?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

and proving that oil sands extraction can be clean and as cheap as $10 a barrel: Petroteq Energy.

Some interesting math on the future of energy:

Wind turbines are neither clean nor green and they provide zero global energy

Here’s a quiz; no conferring. To the nearest whole number, what percentage of the world’s energy consumption was supplied by wind power in 2014, the last year for which there are reliable figures? Was it 20 per cent, 10 per cent or 5 per cent? None of the above: it was 0 per cent. That is to say, to the nearest whole number, there is still no wind power on Earth....

....Even put together, wind and photovoltaic solar are supplying less than 1 per cent of global energy demand. From the International Energy Agency’s 2016 Key Renewables Trends, we can see that wind provided 0.46 per cent of global energy consumption in 2014, and solar and tide combined provided 0.35 per cent. Remember this is total energy, not just electricity, which is less than a fifth of all final energy, the rest being the solid, gaseous, and liquid fuels that do the heavy lifting for heat, transport and industry.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

And then: Is Coal Making a Comeback? China, the United States and India have been ramping up coal mining in 2017

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

As the math starts sinking in, reality comes front and center; Carbon capture needed in climate change fight, IEA says (because CO2 is a valuable resource that doesn't need to be wasted)

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Trump Vows to Unleash the ‘Vast Energy Wealth’ of the U.S

President Donald Trump said he is lifting an Obama-era policy that curtailed the financing of coal-fired power plants overseas, as he seeks to reorient the U.S. government away from fighting climate change and toward American "energy dominance."

"We are now on the cusp of a true energy revolution," Trump told a crowd of executives, lobbyists and laborers at the Energy Department on Thursday. "We are a top producer of petroleum and the No. 1 producer of natural gas. We have so much more than we ever thought possible. We are really in the driver’s seat."

....

After decades of dependence on foreign oil, the U.S. is on the verge of becoming a net exporter of energy resources.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

A world without oil; the pipedream:

Today's Stunted Oil Prices Could Cause Oil Price Shock In 2020

Why investors should brace for a devastating oil shock ahead

“Oil is the most important substance for our economy, we’re burning more of it on a yearly basis than ever before, and we just found the lowest amount since the world economy was several times smaller than it is now,”

The Global Oil Demand Driver That Is Being Ignored

When looking at oil demand, oil market analysts focus overwhelmingly on passenger vehicles. One of the hottest debates today is over the prospect of peak oil demand: whether or not electric vehicles along with general trends towards more fuel efficiency will ultimately lead to a peak and decline of total oil demand worldwide. No doubt the upcoming release of Tesla’s Model 3 will spark more than a few columns on how it could be the beginning of the end for oil....

.....Since 2000, heavy trucks have accounted for 40 percent of the total growth in oil demand, on par with the share for passenger vehicles. Trucks burn about 17 million barrels of oil per day (mb/d), or about one-fifth of total global demand.

Crucially, demand is still growing…rapidly. By 2040, road freight will be responsible for 5 mb/d of demand growth, or about 40 percent of total additional demand over that timeframe

Is EOR Set For A Comeback?

Of course there is another, much bigger reason, which will cause an energy shock that these analysis aren't mentioning. Plus with Tesla confirming there is already a lithium battery shortage, Cobalt increasing in price; no one seems to want to confront the market reality that batteries could have a very difficult time dropping in costs. Should be fun to watch, bottom line though, the death of 'traditional' energy has been greatly exaggerated.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Aramco to Spend $300 Billion as CEO Frets Over World Oil Supply

Tesla’s Australian Battery Fix Comes at ‘Big Price,’ Analyst Says

Tesla’s battery plan will still leave the state’s blackout-plagued power grid vulnerable, Bloomberg New Energy Finance analysts led by Kobad Bhavnagri said in a July 10 report. While the 100 megawatt battery storage project would reduce its import dependency at peak energy use to 126 megawatts, the resulting shortfall will still need to be met by electricity interconnectors with neighboring Victoria, BNEF said.

-Australia's Joyce Sees Merit in Government Taking Stakes in Coal
-Perry says coal-fired power plants important in US future

Clean coal could trump renewables bill in Australia

A high-efficiency, low emissions (HELE) coal-fired station would cost less than the almost A$3 billion (roughly $2.3bn) of subsidies handed out for renewable projects each year, a study published Monday argues.

Exclusive: Indian utility bets $10 billion on coal power despite surplus, green concerns

Plus, analysts are now picking up on the other oil shock: The Major Wildcard That Could Send Oil To $120

Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Very interesting... Trump Wants to Steer UN Climate Cash Toward Building Coal Plants

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

What the oil market looks like as the GCC with the help of Pakistan and Turkey continue to escalate things... The Technical Failure That Could Clear The Oil Glut In A Matter Of Weeks.

[djAdvocate]

i lost faith in this stock in 2015, and ignored it.  it quietly languished in my portfolio but has been a stellar performer this year:

YZCAY

opinions?  i got rid of 90% of my China stocks, but still own this one.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jul 18, 2017 16:34:19 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i lost faith in this stock in 2015, and ignored it.  it quietly languished in my portfolio but has been a stellar performer this year:

YZCAY

opinions?  i got rid of 90% of my China stocks, but still own this one.

The Chinese Government allowed Yancoal to proceed with their bid for Rio's mine in Australia and they won that war over Glencore. China has been increasing mining capacity this year, and just opened the largest CtL facility in the world this past December. Seems like one of the few companies in China that is actually making money; or the government would have stopped them from proceeding with the mine acquisition. With China burning more coal to beat the summer heat, it could have room to run.

OTOH; liquidity is crushing the market over there. The market is again being rescued by the government, whom is now saying things like, Why China fears ‘gray rhino’ risk to fragile financial system. I would guess no socks would be safe in the event when China's cheating catches up to them.(Which I would say will be sometime towards the end of next year)

[tyfighter3]

I'm getting ready to put some money to work back in the oil patch.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 19, 2017 0:27:08 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Jul 18, 2017 16:34:19 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i lost faith in this stock in 2015, and ignored it.  it quietly languished in my portfolio but has been a stellar performer this year:

YZCAY

opinions?  i got rid of 90% of my China stocks, but still own this one.

The Chinese Government allowed Yancoal to proceed with their bid for Rio's mine in Australia and they won that war over Glencore. China has been increasing mining capacity this year, and just opened the largest CtL facility in the world this past December. Seems like one of the few companies in China that is actually making money; or the government would have stopped them from proceeding with the mine acquisition. With China burning more coal to beat the summer heat, it could have room to run.

OTOH; liquidity is crushing the market over there. The market is again being rescued by the government, whom is now saying things like, Why China fears ‘gray rhino’ risk to fragile financial system. I would guess no socks would be safe in the event when China's cheating catches up to them.(Which I would say will be sometime towards the end of next year)

this thing was up another 5% today to $10.

i couldn't tell what your opinion was on this one, Aham.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Aug 4, 2017 18:44:20 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 19, 2017 0:27:08 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

The Chinese Government allowed Yancoal to proceed with their bid for Rio's mine in Australia and they won that war over Glencore. China has been increasing mining capacity this year, and just opened the largest CtL facility in the world this past December. Seems like one of the few companies in China that is actually making money; or the government would have stopped them from proceeding with the mine acquisition. With China burning more coal to beat the summer heat, it could have room to run.

OTOH; liquidity is crushing the market over there. The market is again being rescued by the government, whom is now saying things like, Why China fears ‘gray rhino’ risk to fragile financial system. I would guess no socks would be safe in the event when China's cheating catches up to them.(Which I would say will be sometime towards the end of next year)

this thing was up another 5% today to $10.

i couldn't tell what your opinion was on this one, Aham.

I think you're safe for the summer to get more gains. But I would be very careful going into the fall as the seasons change. JMO of course.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

djAdvocate this article sums it up nicley: Yancoal seeks $2.5bn from investors to pay for Rio’s Aussie coal mines

Some other news out of the first district that tried to kill of coal. Debt put Ontario back in the coal business. We need solutions to keep using coal, not delusions of inefficiency and debt.

[djAdvocate]

thanks, Aham.  i am profoundly uncomfortable with Chinese stocks.  i have a 13% gain in this right now, and will look for a sale opportunity.

NOTE: i have a small position in this.  it is only 2% of my portfolio.  so, i don't care a LOT.  i was just trying to decide if i should buy MORE.  i think i am probably better off with a domestic like Massey. 

edit: i put in a sell at $11.99
if it doesn't hit it, i don't really care that much.
but the way it is going, it probably will.