usaone
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Post by usaone on Feb 3, 2012 9:21:57 GMT -5
Why is deflation a problem assuming it helps the average joe Ask all the people that bought homes between 2000 and 2007 that question.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Feb 4, 2012 0:31:44 GMT -5
I agree wxyz, and this is also why I believe that hyper inflation is highly unlikely in the USA. Interest rates are at 0, it can get REAL expensive to borrow money, and that will but a lid on inflation real quick.
Honestly dritfr, JMO, you have close to the right idea, except as V pointed out, we need to have some inflation to keep wages growing to keep people happy. If there was more shared risk in banking and fixed interest rates(Adam Smith's idea), which could be adjusted in extreme circumstances, there would be a greater possibility of slow steady growth.
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The Virginian
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Post by The Virginian on Feb 4, 2012 11:33:40 GMT -5
Wxyz reading your post reminded me of another point of why Deflation can be really bad.
- When that product keeps getting lower in price people tend to hold off their purchases waiting for a bottom to get the best deal. Not so much with necessities like food & essentials, but say a price of a car is going down $500 every month it makes you want to wait for a better deal. This holding off of purchases hurt businesses also. ( sort of happening with housing right now)
- With inflation ( I remember the 80's) people would go out and purchase quickly anticipating a higher price the following week or month. I remember my mother "stocking up" on essentials because she feared they would be even more expensive the following months.
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Feb 4, 2012 21:25:30 GMT -5
It is impossible for the economy to operate at total balance and have "0" inflation and "0" deflation. I would rather see some inflation in the normal range, 2-3%, than deflation. In terms of the Fed and others that try to guide our economy, I prefer them to bias things in favor of some inflation rather than some deflation. In other words, if they are going to screw up, I prefer them to screw up on the side of some inflation. This is also called "Chain Amplification".. A small deflation started in 1930 and most of the manufactures stopped adverting new products because the money was proved a wasted because sales did not raise. Now sales fell even more and prices for the old products dropped because who wanted to replace today and you can buy cheaper tomorrow. My Grandfather had a advertising agency that specialised in OTC drugs development and promotion .. he would put new drugs on the shelves of stores owned by Drug,INC. and if they sold well spend money on advertising. Not until the products sold.. Yes this is backwards.. Best Way to buy market share was to give away free samples ( reduce first buying anxiety) and buy back at full price any product that did not meet consumers expectation. Advertising budgets went to zero!! FDR disolved Drug,Inc and made it into five companies.. Now Bristol Myers, PM, PG and Bayer own the parts. Just a thought, Bruce
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Feb 6, 2012 9:15:03 GMT -5
It is impossible for the economy to operate at total balance and have "0" inflation and "0" deflation. I would rather see some inflation in the normal range, 2-3%, than deflation. In terms of the Fed and others that try to guide our economy, I prefer them to bias things in favor of some inflation rather than some deflation. In other words, if they are going to screw up, I prefer them to screw up on the side of some inflation. That which is never attempted can never be attained.
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Feb 6, 2012 9:22:25 GMT -5
Well at least.......YES THERE IS NO INFLATION.(according to the Fed today) All the anecdotal inflation and hyper inflation people for the past three years continue to be WRONG. I keep track of my mileage by hand so every time I fill up I write down the gallons, mileage, and current price. I use the same gas station for 95% of my fill-ups. We rarely drive my car when going around town because my wife's has the TV for the kiddos. 02/06/12 3.38/gal 12.7% 02/15/11 3.00/gal 25.0% 02/08/10 2.40/gal 60.0% 02/03/09 1.50/gal 3 year change = 153.3%
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bimetalaupt
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Post by bimetalaupt on Feb 6, 2012 9:26:01 GMT -5
Why is deflation a problem assuming it helps the average joe Deflation is also a symptom of DEPRESSION!!! It his wages hardest and causes delay buying as those with money are on the lookout for better deals.. Like free samples
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usaone
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Post by usaone on Feb 6, 2012 10:10:37 GMT -5
In 2008 I was paying $4.15. Now 4 years later Im paying $3.38.
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Feb 6, 2012 17:18:47 GMT -5
Well the price of gas may be due to inflation or it may be due to political idiocy. Either way the affect on the pocket book of the average person is pain. I dont like to measure inflation by one commodity, but that is just me. Yeah, but that's the only one I could put my hands on quickly. What about Virgils food experiment? Looks like about 12% y/o/y change there. No idea what the dates were though. What about GLD: 02/16/12 167.18 +27.0% 02/04/11 131.61 +25.7% 02/05/10 104.68 +16.8% 02/06/09 89.59 3 year change 86.6% What about tuition? Rates going down in your area? What about medical care? CBO came out recently and had something in there expecting costs to continue up at something like 8% a year.
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Feb 6, 2012 17:24:05 GMT -5
Honestly dritfr, JMO, you have close to the right idea, except as V pointed out, we need to have some inflation to keep wages growing to keep people happy. In V's example his employees only required the higher wages because the cost of things was increasing. If you're talking a more generic 'people are happy with their 2% raise even though they have to pay 3% more for goods because they're so stupid'. Well then unfortunately I'd have to say you're right.
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Post by jarhead1976 on Feb 7, 2012 8:49:07 GMT -5
If we are in a "DEPRESSION " , How is this Good News?
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Feb 8, 2012 1:31:40 GMT -5
That isn't how it goes first of all, it is usually wages ahead of inflation. Where is my proof? We have more now on a personal basis than people did during the 1930's. Also it's more like this... You get a job. You want some stuff. So you buy things. A dog, bike, a car perhaps. You are out on the town and you meet a nice person, this leads to dates, expensive jewelry, make up gifts, kids, then more again. Where does this extra money come from? You look to your boss. "Sorry, there is NO such thing as inflation(including your wage)." "But you're making money," you say.. "That's true." they reply, "but there is no way to guarantee that I will grow my profits, so if I start paying u more I have to pay everyone more, then I will go broke, and no one will have a job." Of course this leads to the though.. "Damn, too bad there wasn't a way to raise prices to guarantee profit increase, but keep wages a head of those price increases." The bottom line is, WE in NA can thank God that economic policy since the creation of the fed has been to keep consumer growth strong, and that since WW2 it has been all about keeping wages a head of inflation(not always successful, but nothing is perfect). Interesting point about Paul Warburg, he supported the New Deal until it was all about govt spending(creating National Debt). Laissez faire(Austrian economics) is all about private donations and business building roads, ect,ect.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Feb 8, 2012 1:51:07 GMT -5
I also came across this. It is full of great historical facts, I hope that everyone takes the time to go through all of this, however, I will outline the best example, IMO..... The Worst Hyperinflation Situations of All Time www.cnbc.com/id/41532451/The_Worst_Hyperinflation_Situations_of_All_Time?slide=1 So just to summarize, because the German currency was useless BEFORE the WW1, since the POUND was the world currency at that time, it was even MORE useless after the lost the first world war. This isn't even close to the same situation that the USD is in right now, and Germany in 1918 is nothing like the USA of today. For one thing the USA wasn't looking to promote GERMAN films, they were looking to build AMERICAN films, just like China is today! China Fund to Support Film Projects Worldwide www.nytimes.com/2012/02/06/business/media/800-million-chinese-fund-to-back-film-projects.html?_r=1
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The Virginian
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Post by The Virginian on Feb 8, 2012 8:53:57 GMT -5
A, This isn't a fair statement. While I can assure you I didn't experience the 30's I do know that most households were one income households at that time. Now it takes two incomes to support the average household.
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The Virginian
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Post by The Virginian on Feb 8, 2012 9:03:06 GMT -5
Wage increases don't come about because employees want to buy something they can't afford. It is usually the result of people leaving for better paying opportunities and competition for labor. Companies are more generous during prosperous times with raises for employees they value but the main driving force is the competition of companies all trying to expand at the same time and they are forced to offer more wages to win over the employees. It has very little to do with the employees desires. The exception is when they can't meet their basic needs - then they collectively start demanding more wages. It's at this point employers are forced to take actions.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Feb 9, 2012 2:23:20 GMT -5
A, This isn't a fair statement. While I can assure you I didn't experience the 30's I do know that most households were one income households at that time. Now it takes two incomes to support the average household. IDK Mr V. things were pretty different back then. I hate to bring it up, but... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_labor_laws_in_the_United_States I know that for the most part this country was built on dad and the sons working the fields and moms and daughters keeping the house, and making it was not even what we call poor now. I know that during the 80's until now both my parents worked, and that for the most part during the 40's, the ladies worked because the men were fighting at war. Before that there were laws about ladies in the work force. During the 50's and 60's as urbanization in NA really took off, more and more households had two parents working. But still on the farm in some cases it was shared bath water, and everyone working to make a go of it. The other thing I know is that sine the 70's tech has exploded and so has wealth. That is why almost everyone complains about how lazy and entitled gen xyz is. This doesn't happen because parents have to work. Of course that last part is here and in the rich part of the developing economies, in the poor part it's still like it was 100 yrs.
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Feb 9, 2012 2:29:55 GMT -5
Wage increases don't come about because employees want to buy something they can't afford. It is usually the result of people leaving for better paying opportunities and competition for labor. Companies are more generous during prosperous times with raises for employees they value but the main driving force is the competition of companies all trying to expand at the same time and they are forced to offer more wages to win over the employees. It has very little to do with the employees desires. The exception is when they can't meet their basic needs - then they collectively start demanding more wages. It's at this point employers are forced to take actions. I couldn't agree with you more Mr.V. Wage increases have been the single biggest factor in inflation over the last 140 or so years. Without a way to grow profits and wages so successfully over the last 100 yrs, the USA would not be what it is today, and the world would not be what it is today.
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Post by stayput on Feb 10, 2012 4:13:23 GMT -5
Take a close look at the chart showing the FED printing presses running in overtime. Now compare that chart with a chart showing the stock market. Other than one dip in the market where the investors feared the end of Quantitative Easing the two are tied at the hip. How long do you think we can keep the printing presses running before we past the point of no return, and our economy is totally destroyed? Even if you make a truck load of cash does it really matter when the dollar becomes worth less than the Drachma?
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Feb 10, 2012 9:36:00 GMT -5
We have a ways to go, at least a couple more years and perhaps 4-5 more years if Obama is reelected. But, enough of the doom and gloom and internet conspiracy crap. (for me at least) Personally I dont care if people on here want to obsess over internet blog crap. For the past four years it has been a constant refrain of negativity for some. Meantime, others have enjoyed over 100% gains in their investments, the opportunity of a lifetime to buy a home, etc, etc. You can either sit there paralyzed by what is going on around you or you can make the best of it and perhaps come out of it ahead of the game. I guess that is the difference between successful people and those that just let events blow them aimlessly around. What really amazes and amuses me is I would bet most if not all of the doom and gloomies on here are actually doing just fine in terms of their situation. The title of this thread could not be more true. No matter what the markets have in fact been way up for a long time now. GET OVER IT. I thought we had that narrowed down to one. Are there more now?
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Feb 10, 2012 10:13:56 GMT -5
No. Trying to get you to paint with a more narrow brush than 'most if not all the doom and gloomies on here'. Especially when you can only think of two active posters and one of them has a grand total of 64 posts since the board started.
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The Virginian
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Post by The Virginian on Feb 10, 2012 16:29:01 GMT -5
The person with the most wheelbarrows still wins! ;D
By the way; I heard 2 Trillion dollars would fill up 13 lanes of semi trucks filled with 100 dollar bills for 13 Kilometers.
How much does 15 Trillion fill?
Now convert that to Drachmas!
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Feb 11, 2012 2:33:50 GMT -5
I'll take that loaded on a prepaid master card please Mr. V.. Take a close look at the chart showing the FED printing presses running in overtime. Now compare that chart with a chart showing the stock market. Other than one dip in the market where the investors feared the end of Quantitative Easing the two are tied at the hip. How long do you think we can keep the printing presses running before we past the point of no return, and our economy is totally destroyed? Even if you make a truck load of cash does it really matter when the dollar becomes worth less than the Drachma? How will the USA not go over the edge and end up like Greece, or Zimbabwe? - The USA has been one of the worlds largest economies for the majority of the industrial revolution. On top of that, right now, the next biggest economy in the world has to deal with the BIGGEST social problem that will most likely ever be recorded in history. US business is everywhere, and China is being built on western brands.
- The entire developing economies needs the west right now, primarily the USA.
- The American Renaissance
- Greece has never been a large industrialized economy, and lot of Europeans don't understand why we work so hard.
- Free Enterprise
- The Federal Reserve is unique, and has changed the way world banking operates.
- If the world was to go to a new gold standard, the USA has 76% of its forex reserves in GOLD, 2x as much gold as Germany, and 7x as much gold as China. China has nothing to build their economy with except USD! Only 2% of their forex reserves are in gold.
- The American Renaissance; this is 100 reasons in itself.
- Greece has been in a recession going by the numbers that say the USA is not in a recession.
- The USA and its allies have expanded the word, FREEDOM across the globe. Billions of people(majority of the worlds population) now want we have.
- I could go on, but you get the idea.
Greece was something, before Jesus. Thank god for the Hellenization of Judaism.
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Post by stayput on Feb 11, 2012 12:54:47 GMT -5
In case anyone missed it....
On the Verge of Life Changing Events
World Central Banks will Their U.S. Dollar Reserves!
And...
The Petrodollar will be Eliminated!
Petrodollars are U.S. Dollar deposits made in western banks for oil transactions.
Almost Every Country in the World Must Buy U.S. dollars to purchase Oil.
The U.S. Dollar to Oil peg, artificially keeps the Dollar Alive.
(1973 -1979)-The U.S. "Persuade" oil producing nations to sell their oil in Petrodollars ONLY. Plus, the treaty mandated nations who accepted payment in Petrodollars to "invest" their profits in U.S. treasury notes, bond and bills. In return, the U.S. would protect them from Russia and any other nation that could cause harm to their oil fields.
A Sweet Deal for the U.S., that`s coming to an END!
Oil producing nations are not happy, the current Fed Fund Rate is near Zero; treasuries are paying near Zero. Plus, the U.S. Dollar is being Massed produced at an alarming rate, it`s now seen as a liability, not an asset.
When the Oil to U.S. dollar peg is broken, the artificial demand for dollars will end. The U.S. Dollar will End!
On January 14th, senior diplomats of both Iran and Russia announced they have Replaced dollars in their Oil trade with India, Japan and China. Demand for the U.S. Dollars is diminishing daily!
President Obama is Only adding to the Imminent Collapse of Our Money, on November 28th, during the annual summit between the U.S. & Europe, President Obama announced:
"The U.S. is ready to do our part to help Europe solve its problems"
On November 30th, officials revealed the joint venture between the Swiss National Bank, European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Plan is to Trillions of U.S. Dollars in the Hands of Weak European Banks.
President Obama and the Federal Reserve will Bailout European Banks with Tax Payer Dollars!
All participating Central Banks will their U.S. Dollars Reserves, in an effort to keep banks like Barclays, Deutsche Bank and others afloat. One key factor in this joint venture, the Only Currency being dumped in the Open Market, will be the U.S. Dollar.
Trillions of U.S. Dollars held and kept out of circulation by Central Banks, will Now Flood the Currency Markets.
The final blow could come from the IMF. On January 18th, the IMF announced it`s prepared to "Infuse" $600 Billion Dollars in the Open Market for the European Crisis.
The U.S. Dollar Dumping Scheme will take place through the "U.S. Dollar Swap Line", an Over The Counter (OTC) Currency Market. The U.S. Dollar Swap Line was specially designed after the 2008 financial scare, the sole purpose of this market is for "Emergency Infusion" of Liquidity.
Guess What Happens to the Value of Your Savings, when Central Banks their U.S. Dollar Reserves?
Guess who`s "On the Hook" for the Money, the Obama Administration will give European Banks?
Yes, Americans will get hit two ways: 1.) Higher Taxes,...someone has to pay it! 2.) Higher Costs of Living... Food & Energy are traded Against U.S. Dollars; adding Trillions of Dollars in the open market will devalue the U.S. Dollar, instantly!
IF You`re NOT Concerned... You Should Be!
World Central Banks came to this conclusion Only after a series of Non-Publicized Bank "Stress-Tests"; They Know Things Are About to Get Really Bad!
The S&P recently Downgraded 15 Major Banks, such as: Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and JP Morgan Chase. The Non-U.S. based Banks were: Barclays, HSBC, UBS, RaboBank and others. Even Australia`s "Big Four" banks have been hit with downgrades.
If that wasn`t Bad Enough, on January 13th, the S&P Downgraded Nine European Countries. This has Never been done before!
Major European Countries and All the Major Banks, in the U.S. & Europe are in Trouble!
The Central Banks of Canada, Switzerland, England and Japan have joined forces to Bailout Banks in Europe. The Federal Reserve and the IMF will Bailout Countries in Europe.
Do you "Smell" A Major Financial Crisis?
The Obama Administration, the Treasury, and Federal Reserve, sure do!
Federal officials are "urging" U.S. banks to recapitalize Money Market Accounts- officials say they`re in "Systemic Risk".
For Many Years, U.S. Banks were taking American`s money oversees, they paid U.S. depositors 1%--1.25% on money market accounts, while depositing those funds in European Banks at an average yield of 4.75% - 5.75%. Good returns with Low Risk... so they thought!
Again, If you`re not concerned , You Should Be!
About 50% of all money market funds-$1.6 Trillion are in European Banks.
How Real is the Collapse of the European Financial System?
The head of the Financial Services Authority (FSA) told the UK`s biggest lenders to "draw up contingency plans for the collapse of the single currency".
Andrew Bailey, a senior executive at the FSA, said: "We must not ignore the prospect of the disorderly departure of some countries from the Eurozone".
When will the Financial Collapse Begin?
We could be days away! Greece will be the first "Domino" to fall, quickly spreading to Portugal, Hungary and others.
Negotiations between the Greek government and private holders of Greek Debt, shutdown after investors refused a proposed 50% "voluntary" haircut. Without this agreement, Greece will Collapse Very Quickly! The Greek 1 year Bond yield 40% last July, it`s now at 396%!!
How will A Financial Collapse in Europe affect your Money?
Remember, the Old Saying, "When the U.S. catches a cold, the world catches a Fever". The New statement is: "When the Banking System catches a cold... The World catches a Fever"
Today, All World Financial Markets, are One In The Same!
THINK ABOUT IT,.. the above mentioned Central Banks, the Federal Reserve and the IMF, would Not be joining forces and preparing for a financial Catastrophe,.. If they didn`t already Know One was Coming!
The World`s Financial System, lives on Borrowing & Lending of Money... If the System Fails, The World Fails!
The question is...
What Have You Done to Protect Your Wealth?
For Years, you`ve heard that China has Stocked-piled Gold to Prepare for a Financial Crisis. They are now One of the World`s Largest Holders of Gold. As U.S. & European Banks were being Downgraded by S&P, the Bank of China, China Construction Bank and other China Based Banks, were Upgraded!
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Feb 11, 2012 14:07:41 GMT -5
It must be tough living life like this. I like the sunshine. ;D
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The Virginian
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Post by The Virginian on Feb 11, 2012 16:09:23 GMT -5
Well okay then - I give up - I'll just.................. - Wait - If the whole system collapses there's nothing I can do.
I could have bought some of that fake worthless "Paper Gold" but that won't do me any good.
Or... I could buy guns and kill off all my neighbors........... but then who would I make fun of .........
I guess I could buy all Treasuries but if the whole system collapses then whose going to pay me , not to mention the currency will be worthless ............ So I guess I'll just keep doing what I'm doing and buy high quality stocks in great companies.
I see the Sun coming out already!
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Feb 12, 2012 0:34:29 GMT -5
I am with ya Rovo I don't blame ya for not trusting the numbers out of China WXYZ, that is why I stick to international standards. I also have a hard time believing that something that created us, gave us free will and the ability to evolve, would ultimately want us destroyed. Considering that all of the major religions worship the same god now and all are working with business; it looks like someone set us up a long time ago to ensue that, no matter what the markets will be up... Stay Put, the article you posted is a very long explanation of the current issues in Greece and it is filled with lies. There was no currency . It was a SWAP. The ECB has to pay the money back to those reserve banks. We have gone over on FED Watch how the ECB is using those funds to buy bonds from Italy, Spain, ect. Again, and feel free to address this point Stay Put, China has, basically, ONLY USD's in reserve, and there isn't enough gold in the WORLD to build the economy they will need going forward. This is a HUGE lie at the bottom of your article. The article provides NO evidence on WHY the oil to dollar peg will be broken, or WHY this will cause the USD to become worthless. The USA will still need oil, and I can assure you that CDN will take USD for oil, along with the Arabs, do you know why it will force the USD to become worthless? There is NO mention on what rising interests rates will do to the value of the dollar, or any mention at all about GDP, so I assume that the author is completely bias to begin with and is coming from the angle that the USA is already finished. The thing about all Doomer logic is they seem to miss; if the ENTIRE financial system goes, there is NO IMF, NO EU, NO BANKS, NO FED, NOTHING! That is some great logic on how to become overlords of the world!!
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tyfighter3
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Post by tyfighter3 on Feb 13, 2012 1:22:32 GMT -5
If everything goes down, it would go back to the Barter system again. I will give you 2 ears of corn for that I-Pad. LOL Commodities is where it would be at.
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Post by Steady As She Goes on Feb 13, 2012 17:09:00 GMT -5
Still having problems busting through 12,900. But I'm a patient man ............. sort of ............
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Feb 14, 2012 2:03:21 GMT -5
I hear you steady. We have to take it, we don't always have to like it. To continue on with the article the you posted Stay Put, and this is why I want flow5 to post here. I always find something good in the info her provides. Those excess reserves are being helped at the FED and in the banks. BTI, I and others, have debated quite a bit on if this is the right move, because this is why the recovery is taking so long. SO while the authors logic is correct that the money is being kept to gard against future fall outs. There will be no currency . What will happen is the money will flow back into the economy in the form of business and homes loans. GDP basically. research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/12/ES_2012-02-03.pdf
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Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
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Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Feb 14, 2012 2:14:49 GMT -5
If everything goes down, it would go back to the Barter system again. I will give you 2 ears of corn for that I-Pad. LOL Commodities is where it would be at. LOL, yep and land... I guess some gardening skills would also help.. Is there an APP for that?? ;D
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