Over the Long Term the Markets WILL be Up;Invest Accordingly

[Steady As She Goes]

And what happens to those who have nothing to trade or barter with?

[usaone]

Iran and Russa are doing this because we are clamping down on Irans ability to sell oil to other countries. Look at the sanctions we have in place against Iran and the sanctions we have on the table ready to implement.

Don't believe the propaganda.

The dollar will be the defacto world currency indefinitely.

Feb 11, 2012 12:54:47 GMT -5 @stayput said:

In case anyone missed it....


On the Verge of Life Changing Events

World Central Banks will Their U.S. Dollar Reserves!

And...

The Petrodollar will be Eliminated!



Petrodollars are U.S. Dollar deposits made in western banks for oil transactions.

Almost Every Country in the World Must Buy U.S. dollars to purchase Oil.

The U.S. Dollar to Oil peg, artificially keeps the Dollar Alive.

(1973 -1979)-The U.S. "Persuade" oil producing nations to sell their oil in Petrodollars ONLY. Plus, the treaty mandated nations who accepted payment in Petrodollars to "invest" their profits in U.S. treasury notes, bond and bills. In return, the U.S. would protect them from Russia and any other nation that could cause harm to their oil fields.

A Sweet Deal for the U.S., that`s coming to an END!

Oil producing nations are not happy, the current Fed Fund Rate is near Zero; treasuries are paying near Zero. Plus, the U.S. Dollar is being Massed produced at an alarming rate, it`s now seen as a liability, not an asset.

When the Oil to U.S. dollar peg is broken, the artificial demand for dollars will end. The U.S. Dollar will End!

On January 14th, senior diplomats of both Iran and Russia announced they have Replaced dollars in their Oil trade with India, Japan and China. Demand for the U.S. Dollars is diminishing daily!

President Obama is Only adding to the Imminent Collapse of Our Money, on November 28th, during the annual summit between the U.S. & Europe, President Obama announced:

"The U.S. is ready to do our part to help Europe solve its problems"

On November 30th, officials revealed the joint venture between the Swiss National Bank, European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Plan is to Trillions of U.S. Dollars in the Hands of Weak European Banks.

President Obama and the Federal Reserve will Bailout European Banks with Tax Payer Dollars!

All participating Central Banks will their U.S. Dollars Reserves, in an effort to keep banks like Barclays, Deutsche Bank and others afloat. One key factor in this joint venture, the Only Currency being dumped in the Open Market, will be the U.S. Dollar.

Trillions of U.S. Dollars held and kept out of circulation by Central Banks, will Now Flood the Currency Markets.

The final blow could come from the IMF. On January 18th, the IMF announced it`s prepared to "Infuse" $600 Billion Dollars in the Open Market for the European Crisis.

The U.S. Dollar Dumping Scheme will take place through the "U.S. Dollar Swap Line", an Over The Counter (OTC) Currency Market. The U.S. Dollar Swap Line was specially designed after the 2008 financial scare, the sole purpose of this market is for "Emergency Infusion" of Liquidity.

Guess What Happens to the Value of Your Savings, when Central Banks their U.S. Dollar Reserves?

Guess who`s "On the Hook" for the Money, the Obama Administration will give European Banks?

Yes, Americans will get hit two ways:
1.) Higher Taxes,...someone has to pay it!
2.) Higher Costs of Living... Food & Energy are traded Against U.S. Dollars; adding Trillions of Dollars in the open market will devalue the U.S. Dollar, instantly!

IF You`re NOT Concerned... You Should Be!

World Central Banks came to this conclusion Only after a series of Non-Publicized Bank "Stress-Tests"; They Know Things Are About to Get Really Bad!



The S&P recently Downgraded 15 Major Banks, such as: Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and JP Morgan Chase. The Non-U.S. based Banks were: Barclays, HSBC, UBS, RaboBank and others. Even Australia`s "Big Four" banks have been hit with downgrades.

If that wasn`t Bad Enough, on January 13th, the S&P Downgraded Nine European Countries. This has Never been done before!

Major European Countries and All the Major Banks, in the U.S. & Europe are in Trouble!

The Central Banks of Canada, Switzerland, England and Japan have joined forces to Bailout Banks in Europe. The Federal Reserve and the IMF will Bailout Countries in Europe.

Do you "Smell" A Major Financial Crisis?

The Obama Administration, the Treasury, and Federal Reserve, sure do!

Federal officials are "urging" U.S. banks to recapitalize Money Market Accounts- officials say they`re in "Systemic Risk".

For Many Years, U.S. Banks were taking American`s money oversees, they paid U.S. depositors 1%--1.25% on money market accounts, while depositing those funds in European Banks at an average yield of 4.75% - 5.75%. Good returns with Low Risk... so they thought!

Again, If you`re not concerned , You Should Be!

About 50% of all money market funds-$1.6 Trillion are in European Banks.

How Real is the Collapse of the European Financial System?

The head of the Financial Services Authority (FSA) told the UK`s biggest lenders to "draw up contingency plans for the collapse of the single currency".

Andrew Bailey, a senior executive at the FSA, said: "We must not ignore the prospect of the disorderly departure of some countries from the Eurozone".

When will the Financial Collapse Begin?

We could be days away! Greece will be the first "Domino" to fall, quickly spreading to Portugal, Hungary and others.

Negotiations between the Greek government and private holders of Greek Debt, shutdown after investors refused a proposed 50% "voluntary" haircut. Without this agreement, Greece will Collapse Very Quickly! The Greek 1 year Bond yield 40% last July, it`s now at 396%!!

How will A Financial Collapse in Europe affect your Money?

Remember, the Old Saying, "When the U.S. catches a cold, the world catches a Fever". The New statement is: "When the Banking System catches a cold... The World catches a Fever"

Today, All World Financial Markets, are One In The Same!


THINK ABOUT IT,.. the above mentioned Central Banks, the Federal Reserve and the IMF, would Not be joining forces and preparing for a financial Catastrophe,.. If they didn`t already Know One was Coming!

The World`s Financial System, lives on Borrowing & Lending of Money...
If the System Fails, The World Fails!

The question is...

What Have You Done to Protect Your Wealth?



For Years, you`ve heard that China has Stocked-piled Gold to Prepare for a Financial Crisis. They are now One of the World`s Largest Holders of Gold. As U.S. & European Banks were being Downgraded by S&P, the Bank of China, China Construction Bank and other China Based Banks, were Upgraded!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Iran is going to have to work peacefully with the world, they literally have no other choice unless they want to start a nuclear war. Which they will lose badly and they know it. Russia is now condemning the Violence, and Putin is in BIG shit. He has to start reforming as well because the people in Russia have caught on that the world is watching

Feb 14, 2012 12:45:22 GMT -5 Steady As She Goes said:

And what happens to those who have nothing to trade or barter with?

Start working weights, there is always going to be personal security...

lol... I don't have any concern about that situation though. I guess IF it were to go down, we have SO much stuff in this country it wouldn't be nearly as bad as people think.

It's funny I have never put much thought into it but since we have freedom from conspiracy over here why not?

Monetary Collapse only, as per the FED conspiracy.

IMO, Initially there would be a shock and panic. The bad parts of cites would expand out into downtown areas of the cites because of looting.

Suburbs and small towns would become safe as hell because communities would band together.

All the power, ect, ect, would still work, and since a state of emergency would take effect, it would be ordered that all services be kept on and all basic services be FREE to keep order until decisions could be made.

Goods would still flow, and a new system would emerge. No WAY it would be a WORLD currency.

[tyfighter3]

I've been saying for YEARS now that we should be Buying Farm Ground outright. Then it doesn't matter what happens. That loaf of Bread costing a Dinar.

[Steady As She Goes]

Am I dreaming

Somebody pinch me
Did the DOW finally and ACTUALLY close ABOVE 12,900 today

Will it hold

Granted ... it was only a weeee bit over 12,900 ... but ya gotta get there before you go higher.

At least for today ... I'm a happy camper

[usaone]

13K next week.

[dothedd]

Feb 16, 2012 11:45:34 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

I've been saying for YEARS now that we should be Buying Farm Ground outright. Then it doesn't matter what happens. That loaf of Bread costing a Dinar.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

LOL@ steady....

I hear ya Ty, I know where there is LOTS of cheap farm land. It's a great banking idea...

Feb 16, 2012 9:10:26 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

Not worried about the end of the world or collapse of society.

I would worry more about the destruction of your personal rights and freedoms under the constitution that is happening on a daily basis at the hands of an ever expanding Federal government.

IDK man, from where I am sitting the powers of the govt are running dry and if they want to keep up their primary goal of defense and security, the programs are done. There is no more cash for this deficit financing. OAS is going up to 67 here. By the time i get there it will be 75 so most will already be in the mindset that they have to look after themselves. More self sufficiency in society will lead to more prosperity, plus there is a great change that in within the next five years in Canad prohibition will have ended and a freedom that was taken 90 years ago will be restored.

I'm not worried about the collapse of society either, just wanted to get it out there right now, why not, it's a topic. I think that people always go to worst of everything, but the FACT is that there is

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self_storage

There is more than 2.35 billion square feet of self storage in the U.S., or a land area equivalent to three times Manhattan Island under roof.

Those are just self storage, we have enough stuff to build another society right now in storage. Guys like Gene Roddenberry believe we could function as a society in the pursuit of economic expansion WITHOUT currency. It's all about the collective, and for now the collective wants what WE have, so WE aren't going anywhere..

[tyfighter3]

George Carlin and his STUFF. LOL But when you want to EAT, Who are you going to see to trade your STUFF. LOL

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Feb 17, 2012 0:37:00 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

George Carlin and his STUFF. LOL But when you want to EAT, Who are you going to see to trade your STUFF. LOL

That's why we NEED to start a land bank with cheap Canadian farm land.. LOL

[bimetalaupt]

Feb 17, 2012 1:27:49 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Feb 17, 2012 0:37:00 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

George Carlin and his STUFF. LOL But when you want to EAT, Who are you going to see to trade your STUFF. LOL

That's why we NEED to start a land bank with cheap Canadian farm land.. LOL

Grow Grapes..Make wine.. Texas will sell you the BEEF>>>>

[dothedd]

Eurozone seals second Greek bailout
By Annika Breidthardt and Jan Strupczewski | Reuters – 25 minutes ago

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Euro zone finance ministers sealed on Tuesday a second bailout for debt-laden Greece that will resolve its immediate financing needs but seems unlikely to revive the nation's shattered economy.

After a marathon 13 hours of talks, euro zone officials said ministers had nailed measures to cut Greece's debt to around 121 percent of gross domestic product by 2020, close to their original target of 120, after negotiators for private bondholders offered to accept a bigger loss to help plug the funding gap.

Agreement on a 130-billion-euro rescue package with strict conditions attached will help draw a line under months of uncertainty that has shaken the currency bloc, and avert an imminent Greek bankruptcy.

"The financial volume (of the Greek package) is 130 billion euros and debt-to-GDP (will be) 121 percent. Now it's down to work on the statement," one official involved in the negotiations told Reuters. Another confirmed the two figures.

The euro jumped almost half a cent, reversing earlier losses, after Reuters reported a deal had been struck.

A report prepared for ministers by EU, European Central Bank and IMF experts, obtained exclusively by Reuters, said Greece would need extra relief to cut its debts near to the official debt target 2020 given the ever-worsening state of its economy.

If Athens did not follow through on economic reforms and savings, its debt could hit 160 percent by that date.

"Given the risks, the Greek program may thus remain accident-prone, with questions about sustainability hanging over it," the 9-page confidential report said, highlighting the fact that Greece's problems are far from over.

The accord will enable Athens to launch a bond swap with private investors to help reduce and restructure its vast debts, put it on a more stable financial footing and keep it inside the 17-country euro zone.

Around 100 billion euros of debt will be written off as banks and insurers swap bonds they hold for longer-dated securities that pay a lower coupon.

Private sector holders of Greek debt are expected to take losses of 53.5 percent or more on the nominal value of their bonds. Previously they had agreed to a 50 percent nominal writedown, which equated to around a 70 percent loss on the net present value of the bonds.

The debt sustainability report delivered to ministers last week showed that without further measures Greek debt would only fall to 129 percent by 2020.

The IMF had said if the ratio was not cut to near 120 percent, it may not have been able to help finance the bailout, putting the whole scheme in jeopardy.

To help fill the financing gap, one senior euro zone source said the ECB would pass up profits it has made from buying Greek bonds over the past two years under its emergency bond-buying program.

The ECB has spent about 38 billion euros on Greek government debt that is now worth about 50 billion euros. By forgoing that profit and redistributing it to national euro zone central banks, the ECB can indirectly provide debt relief to Athens.

Whatever its constituent parts, economists say the deal may only delay a deeper default by a few months. A turnaround could take as much as a decade, a prospect that brought thousands of Greeks onto the streets to protest against austerity measures on Sunday.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Euro zone crisis in graphics r.reuters.com/hyb65p

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

DOUBTS OVER COMMITMENT

Skeptics question whether a new Greek government will stick to the deeply unpopular program after elections due in April, and believe Athens could again fall behind in implementation, prompting exasperated lenders to pull the plug once the euro zone has stronger financial firewalls in place.

While there are doubts in Germany and other countries that Greece will be able to meet its commitments, including implementing 3.3 billion euros of spending cuts and tax increases, the threat of contagion from a chaotic Greek default always made a deal more likely than not, no matter how tortuous the negotiations.

Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde and ECB President Mario Draghi all attended the Brussels talks in a sign they were likely to be decisive.

The private creditor bond exchange is expected to launch on March 8 and complete three days later, Athens said on Saturday. That means a 14.5-billion-euro bond repayment due on March 20 would be restructured, allowing Greece to avoid default.

The vast majority of the funds in the 130-billion-euro program will be used to finance the bond swap and ensure Greece's banking system remains stable: 30 billion euros will go to "sweeteners" to get the private sector to sign up to the swap, 23 billion will go to recapitalize Greek banks.

A further 35 billion will allow Greece to finance the buying back of the bonds, and 5.7 billion will go to paying off the interest accrued on the bonds being traded in. Next to nothing will go directly to help the Greek economy.

Those numbers could change in the final analysis given the scramble to meet the overall objective of reducing Greece's debts from 160 percent of GDP to around 120 by 2020.

The deal will provide immediate relief to Athens and financial markets but no one is pretending it will end Greece's problems. Figures last week showed its economy shrank 7 percent year-on-year in the last quarter of 2011, much more than expected, with further cuts likely to make matters worse.

The troika of European Commission, ECB and IMF, responsible for monitoring Greece's reform progress, carries out quarterly reviews and could decide Athens is not meeting its commitments at any one of them.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Looks like for now... Disaster averted...

I will have more to say this week, what a GREAT family day today!

Feb 20, 2012 20:36:33 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Feb 17, 2012 1:27:49 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

That's why we NEED to start a land bank with cheap Canadian farm land.. LOL

Grow Grapes..Make wine.. Texas will sell you the BEEF>>>>

Hell ya Bruce, sounds like a plan to me.. There is lots of Cattle room in the pastures, and I know people that have their own wine around here. They are just starting, not an old pro like yourself, and apparently it turns out really good.

We could enjoy a steak from the BEEF on that train ride in Banff this summer! ;D

[frankq]

Wow......more Doom and Gloom from Stay Put..... long time no read..... What's next, a guest appearance by Midwesterner? Things are looking up kids!!!!! I'll have to check the Doom and Gloom Index.......

Yeah, if Hungary and Slovania fall we're all screwed............

[Steady As She Goes]

Hey frankq, it's been awhile. How you been?
Careful what you wish for ... I, for one, don't miss that guy.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jan 3, 2012 2:31:50 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Some thoughts for 2012....

The underlying theme in the USA this year will obviously be the elections. The most expensive elections in history most likely, this alone will be a stimulator for the economy. By April we will know more of how the job picture will look for the rest of the year, and how much was the regular seasonal bump. The lumber industry in NA however will be very strong. The Chinese govt will start building 1.2 million houses a year this year, for the next five years.

As those house holds are formed, there will be increased consumption in energy and food. We have see the result of that this year in record profits for farmers and the fact that the USA is now a fuel exporter. The price of oil will be high because there are serous tensions building in the middle east, and from the China takes a stance on the middle east thread, we can see that come March, the Iranian elections are going to consume all the headlines.

Russia, more elections, they are also going to have an uprising this year unless we see Putin step down, and the situation in middle Africa with the Islamic militants will get more serious as the "secular" democracies of the middle east and Northern Africa start coming online.

China has just been awarded the first contract in Afghanistan to drill for oil, and they view the stability of Africa and the Middle east as their foremost goal in foreign policy(sound familiar?). However, China has just as many internal problems to deal with as the rest of these countries, and during this transition of commies in the year of the dragon, we will see the Chinese people come alive as they push for greater freedoms from the leaders that are promising happiness not GDP.

Because of this, you will see China continue to do what they did in the fishing village and slowly start to give way to what the people want. They will have to have a military presence in Africa and the middle east within the next five years to protect their resources. They cannot afford to lift 600 million people out of poverty, while keeping them controlled the way they want, while trying to keep resources secure.

IMO, the solution is clear, it's just not what the commies want. Oh well.

On the bright side, having businesses that need profits from consumers isn't the worst way to have things set up. Especially when you can invest in those companies that are going to be at the forefront of rebuilding the world as the last of the dictatorships crumble. The economic numbers in the USA will be good for the coming quarter as all the major Econ numbers over the last month have been positive, and even though Europe is slowing down, there is still expansion in the USA, and now in India and China as well. This is also a signal that domestic consumption is picking up in China and India, because while the US was expanding in the second half of the year, India and China were declining with the problems in Europe. We all know that the problems in Europe are far from over.

The debt problems in Europe, the possible exit of countries from the Euro and now Japan's problems will be a great way to keep the D&G in the headlines, which will keep the indexes in check for the year, and could very well bring people back to the precious metals short term.

These of course, are all just the thoughts of a spectator that loves economics, long term Investing in quality companies, good interest rate AAA bonds, and property.

Now that we are going into march and the Iranian story is staring to dominate the headlines, the next couple weeks as the elections get started there will give us a better idea of what is going to happen over the rest of the year in the Middle east. There is already talks of GCC arming the Syrian rebels and Iran knows that if Assad falls, their people will be more empowered.

The Russian elections are also starting, Putin looks to win but his vote isn't as strong as he would like, let's all hope that Russia doesn't start to revolt now that Putin is going to retain control.

The Chinese have started to cut reserve ratios in the banks to spur growth and wages continue to climb. Export to Europe aren't picking up, so they HAVE to increase domestic demand. The great Chinese bubble continues to inflate, with trillions in reserves that bubble could grow for some time yet.

The debt in Europe and Japan has keep the market in check so far, JMO we would be looking at 14k right now if it wasn't for Europe. Interesting thing is that Asian manufacturing has really suffered because of the EU debt issue whereas the US's hasn't. There was a record crop planted this year, and the oil patch is still growing.

The US econ numbers have all been strong through the spring while EU was weak, and jobless claims have stayed low after xmas which is a great sign for continued strength. When you look at the healing housing market which has millions of potential clients ready for it if economy stay strong until spring, we can get a picture of a self sustaining US economy on the horizon.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The Iranian elections are in and it looks like the hard liners have cemented their power, this is a recipe for further sanctions and crackdown on Iran in the coming year. Meanwhile China is now sending in diplomats to Syria to stop the crackdown that are happening there. They are also putting presser on Iran and Russia to do the same. Which is no surprise considering that the people in Russia aren't very happy how Putin reclaimed his presidency. I was reading reports that were saying that a new revolution was being planned only blocks from where Putin was giving his speech.

On the global growth side. This past weekend marked the first democratic elections in the Wukan village in China, meanwhile China's second richest man has stepped up criticism of the Chinese government. This has prompted China into announcing their new growth target of 7.5%, with the focus on consumption, which means that the standard of living for millions of more people around the world is about to start improving. The new Chinese mantra of Happiness not GDP and stability in the Middle East, has lead other entrepreneurs to invest in emerging markets such as Africa, where the richest man in Africa has just increased the cement production of Nigeria by 40%.

All this means that BIG CAP companies are going to continue to earn. The markets are upset that China has dropped it's GDP forecast, I laugh; THEY ARE SIGNALING CONSUMPTION... This means increased wages and more work in everyone's own economy, we see this in the manufacturing sector of the USA, and how it's still expanding.

The next big step in the USA is going to be continued econ strenght over the spring and some renwed confidence in home ownership. Mix this with positive earnings and the Olympic bump in Europe over the Summer and before we know it, we will be talking about Santa coming to town...

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I thought this was a fitting article about how global growth is very much intact.

Dire Poverty Falls Despite Global Slump, Report Finds
www.nytimes.com/2012/03/07/world/extreme-poverty-down-despite-recession-world-bank-data-show.html?_r=1

WASHINGTON — A World Bank report shows a broad reduction in extreme poverty — and indicates that the global recession, contrary to economists’ expectations, did not increase poverty in the developing world.

The report shows that for the first time the proportion of people living in extreme poverty — on less than $1.25 a day — fell in every developing region from 2005 to 2008. And the biggest recession since the Great Depression seems not to have thrown that trend off course, preliminary data from 2010 indicate.

The progress is so drastic that the world has met the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals to cut extreme poverty in half five years before its 2015 deadline.

“This is very good news,” said Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University and the United Nations’ special adviser on the Millennium Development Goals. “There has been broad-based progress in fighting poverty, and accelerating progress. There’s a lot to be happy about.”

The report indicates that despite the world entering a recession in 2009, poverty did not increase in developing nations. That is contrary to the World Bank’s own expectations. In a year-end 2008 report, the Washington-based development institution warned, “Unemployment is on the rise in industrial countries and poverty is set to increase across low- and middle-income countries, bringing with it a substantial deterioration in conditions for the world’s most vulnerable.”

But that did not happen. Preliminary surveys for 2010 show that the proportion of people in the developing world living in extreme poverty fell.

That is because of strong growth in countries like Brazil, India and especially China, which helped buoy economies in Africa and South America. High commodity prices also aided exporting nations.

Market conditions also favored developing countries. Economists had theorized that the credit crunch and recession would cause a flight to the safety of developed nations. But shortly after the recession, with growth stagnating in countries like the United States and in western Europe, the world’s investors plowed money into emerging markets.

“In the past, economic crises in the rich world had a big and immediate impact on the developing world,” said Charles Kenny, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development, a research institution based in Washington. “But this time, the impact was much smaller, and we did not see developing countries follow the United States and Europe into long recessions and slow recoveries.”

“That’s good news for all concerned,” Mr. Kenny added, “because growth in developing countries has helped developed countries as well.”

The report contained a raft of statistics showing broad declines in poverty throughout the 2000s. For the first time since the World Bank started keeping statistics in 1981, poverty fell in every region of the world on a three-year timeframe. In sub-Saharan Africa, the proportion of the population living in extreme poverty fell below 50 percent for the first time. And between 1981 and 2008, poverty fell to just less than a quarter of the developing world’s population from more than half .

Much of the story was about China, which moved nearly 700 million people out of poverty between 1981 and 2008, with the proportion of its population living in extreme poverty falling to 13 percent from 84 percent during that period. The country’s annual pace of economic growth never dipped below 9 percent, even in 2009, when the world’s economy contracted.

But perhaps the most surprising success story is sub-Saharan Africa, where the proportion of people living in extreme poverty actually increased through the 1990s, before declining in the 2000s.

“People used to worry, ‘Is Africa going to be poor forever?’ ” said Mr. Kenny of the Center for Global Development. “Well, it doesn’t really look like it, does it?”

Extreme poverty in the Middle East and North Africa fell to just 2.7 percent in 2008 from 4.2 percent in 2002. And extreme poverty in sub-Saharan Africa fell to 47.5 percent in 2008 from 55.7 percent in 2002.

“Long-term changes are really starting to take hold,” said Mr. Sachs, citing favorable market conditions, policies to tackle public health problems and technological change bringing tools like cellphones and Internet connections to even the most remote and rural areas.

Mr. Sachs said that climate change and its attending droughts and floods, the threat of armed conflict and a persistently high birth rate among the very poor threatened to reverse the decline in poverty. But he said he most likely saw them getting better. “Looking at the balance of data, this is a very promising time for fighting poverty,” Mr. Sachs said.

Separately, the United Nations announced that the world had met the Millennium Development Goal of halving the proportion of people without access to safe drinking water five years ahead of its 2015 target. Between 1990 and 2010, more than two billion people gained access to improved drinking water, according to a joint report by the United Nations Children’s Fund and the World Health Organization. Now, 89 percent of the world’s population has that resource, up from 76 percent in 1990.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Thanks, I couldn't agree more wxyz. So many people here take it for granted that you can go into so many places and get a decent drink from a tap. Honestly, that is the thing I luv about time the most. The truth will always come out. Doesn't matter how many layers of shit and decay are on top, it just has a way of shining though.

[dothedd]

... Aham

dot

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Dot...

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The best part about what is starting to show is the strength in weakness. The reason I say this even though the Eastern countries have been fairly vengefully during the last 30-40 years toward us. That hate is directed at what Europe did during our development prior to the 1950’s. It was during that last 30-40 years that we here in the USA and Canada have done all we could through business to try and lift people up. Now that we are staying the course and helping out Long term, they are finally starting to trust us.

This light at the end of the tunnel is starting to show it’s head on this course of action. Western companies such as Costco and Siemens are making new inroads, we see the Chinese movie industry being shaped by Hollywood, and the outsourcing of jobs to India is creating a new market in hotels that didn’t exist before. The BRIC nations are stepping up and starting to donate internationally and KFC, the place that has lead the fast food revolution in Japan and China, is popping up all over Africa.

As these cycles continue, more and more balance will be restored to the world economy. There are plenty of ways to make money with business and we are really only about 250 yrs into the concept of Free Enterprise. Not really that long in comparison to our written word and only a speck in the history books when you look at our evolution.

Is there going to be issues along the way to everyone servicing their own economies?

Of course, this year for example we have already seen in the last 3-4 months the debt issues in Europe, that are still going to be around for a while. The issues that are being dealt with in the Middle East are coming to light, progress? Maybe, the talks between Iran and the UN security consol apparently went good. However, Iran’s population is about to revolt against them because of sanctions and the Chinese have more than their plate full now that North Korea has shown they won’t listen to them.

North Korea has successfully isolated themselves further, creating more social upheaval and more problems for China. This means that China is stuck in the ME/Africa, the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula, and they have all of the homeland issues.

With this last act of aggression from Korea it's to the point that China has no other choice but to let their people go, they now have far more to deal with on the international stage than they can handle. However, this isn’t going to stop them from trying to control the way they let their people go.

This brings us back to the strength in weakness. China is supposedly going to be this great super power of tomorrow, the fact is that there is nothing but weakness in the fundamental structure of that country and it will ONLY succeed with the strength of the west.

Siemens Benchmark Digital Factory Lays the Foundation in Chengdu High Tech Zone
www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/siemens-benchmark-digital-factory-lays-the-foundation-in-chengdu-high-tech-zone-142914815.html

Cosco, China Shipping Consider More Vessel-Sharing Pacts
www.joc.com/container-lines/cosco-china-shipping-look-expand-vessel-sharing-pacts

Outsourcing’s Surprise By-product: More Luxury Hotels in India
india.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/13/outsourcings-surprise-byproduct-more-luxury-hotels-in-india/

Rising economies boost foreign aid spending on health
news.yahoo.com/rising-economies-boost-foreign-aid-spending-health-125644282.html

KFC's Big Game of Chicken
www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-29/kfcs-big-game-of-chicken

Africa's Richest Billionaire To Lead $7 Billion Investment In Nigerian Power, Petrochemical And Mining
www.forbes.com/sites/mfonobongnsehe/2012/04/10/africas-richest-billionaire-to-lead-7-billion-investment-in-nigerian-power-fertilizers-and-mining/

Chinese Housing Activist Is Jailed for Unruly Acts
abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chinese-housing-activist-jailed-fraud-16105003#.T4pcNVH--z4

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Halfway through the year and the worst job report in a year hits, not a good sign unless you understand that we are looking at a long term trend emerging here for sure (the swoosh economy as some have been calling it for a few years now ). Private jobs increasing and public jobs are decreasing, it’s not hard to imagine why as I’m sure most by now have seen the stories of the US “fiscal cliff” in 2013.

With no more room for public spending companies are stepping up. Exxon Mobile, Chevron, Potash Company of Sask, Cameco and others are all starting to invest in education across NA. Louisiana has just privatized their school systems, which will make it accountable to the tax payers because companies will still need to operate in the black to show good earnings. Since we know that the USA is slowing turning into a resource based manufacturing powerhouse, this should come as no surprise. Especially since all across the oil patch there is already talk of a huge labor crunch and the only way these companies are going to change that is by revamping the education system here and getting kids into REAL work.

This leads back into the bad jobs report, and how the traders are overlooking the fact that manufacturing is still expanding, it slows and quickens, but it’s still expanding. A gauge for new orders picked up in may and the gauge for hiring remained strong. Factory activity was solid in April and the housing market is starting to slowly recover. (Let’s not forget about the big auctions at Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae later this year.)

Heading into the busy summer season oil prices and other commodities are going in the right direction which means that gas prices will not be on the rise over the summer. Since companies like six flags are reporting solid earnings and growth it looks like people will be out enjoying their summer and back to school shopping; EARNINGS!

As discussed in January the euro situation is keeping the markets in check, with a new banking union and fiscal pack on the way we could actually be close(a year maybe) to seeing how this EU thing plays out.. Vunderbond or bust!!!

Iran has moved into the spotlight over the last six months for sure, with Syria hanging in the balance, Iran has been forced into talks with the UN and their “enemies”. Israel has, more than likely, had a few super computer viruses all across the Middle East for the last few years and they still don’t trust Iran, big surprise. So the green light is in from Israel, big surprise. However, the interesting part about that is there have been new satellite shots of Iran apparently dismantling areas that were once thought used for nuclear weapons research.

Tied into the Middle East is the man that has seen his job come under heavy fire from his public; Putin. “Winning” his elections this spring under heavy protest might have been the worst thing for his political legacy, as many have vowed to have him out of office before his six years are up. Even Medeve isn’t afraid to speak up anymore and say that Democracy is no longer a bad word in Russia.

The other factor that keeps popping up is the slow down in China, the real story is the massive social bubble that is ready to pop. Never mind the 6 million or so empty homes that go with the ghost malls all across the nation. It’s this massive bubble that will end up being the Chinese’s best friend. Not the Communist party’s best friend mined you.

We have been hearing about China using their massive reserves to come in and save the Euro for the last couple of years. We have hear about China’s massive reserves buying up the world, we have heard endlessly about China’s massive reserves, yet the market seems to be ignoring that those massive reserves are staring to go to work in the consumer base. Wages are a huge problem at places like Foxconn and it’s not like hundreds of Tibetans are lighten themselves of fire because of Chinese rule or anything….

China will spend their massive reserves building up their consumer base because they see the writing in the wall. How do I know this? They have moved to stop the outflow of manufacturing in their county, which is one area that is truly suffering. It won’t work so the only way that they will be able to make it is to free their slaves. For the communist party this will be a slow motion plane crash. (The plane being their massive reserves dwindling away.)

The only thing is that the slow crash that happens there will funnel money to the rest of the world. This evidence is already showing up all across Africa and Latin America. In particular, a new report showing that people from Nigeria are outspending Americans in London.

As China builds up their people, the world will continue to rebalance, and everyone will have to service their own economies. Think it’s crazy or fake? Look to Saudi Arabia showering their people with money so they don’t revolt. This is of course the overall driver in the big trend of the American Renaissance. The swoosh continues, WE (the people) win!

China’s Big Banks Look More Like Paper Tigers
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-10/china-s-big-banks-look-more-like-paper-tigers.html

Nigerians Outstrip Americans In London Fashion Spending
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-07/nigerians-outstrip-americans-in-london-fashion-spending.html

China Growth Shift Splits KFC, Hydraulics
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-08/china-growth-shift-splits-kfc-hydraulics.html

Rising profits in China for Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM) and slowing sales for electrical-equipment maker Eaton Corp. are signs of a shift in the nation’s economy toward being driven more by consumers.

Kenya signs up for GE engines on 787s
atwonline.com/aircraft-engines-components/news/kenya-signs-ge-engines-787s-0402?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A

China seeks to halt manufacturing business outflow
www.chinapost.com.tw/china/national-news/2012/05/21/341678/China-seeks.htm

Saudis Skip Arab Spring as Nation Pours Money Into Jobs
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-02/saudis-skip-arab-spring-as-nation-pours-money-into-jobs.html

Oil: Saudis are burning through it
www.startribune.com/business/145851905.html

US manufacturing grew more slowly in May from April, sign that economy has weakened
www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/us-manufacturing-grew-more-slowly-in-may-from-april-sign-that-economy-has-weakened-156419445.html

U.S. manufacturing grew more slowly in May, hampered by weaker hiring and declining production. But a measure of new orders rose to a 13-month high, suggesting factory activity will pick up in June.

[sil0730]

Iran has moved into the spotlight over the last six months for sure, with Syria hanging in the balance, Iran has been forced into talks with the UN and their “enemies”. Israel has, more than likely, had a few super computer viruses all across the Middle East for the last few years and they still don’t trust Iran, big surprise. So the green light is in from Israel, big surprise. However, the interesting part about that is there have been new satellite shots of Iran apparently dismantling areas that were once thought used for nuclear weapons research.



If you want something really scary consider this.

A back door has been found in chips the US military bought from China. Using the back door, a knowledge user could change the chip's function to do something else or even shut it off. The only fix is to replace the chip.

There's now a second followup to Stuxnet--the malware that shut down Iran's centrafuges. Stuxnet was followed by DuQu which is now followed by Flame, which is a hugh 10 megabytes. One analyst from the Russian security company that found the malware said it's probably been out there for several years, and it could take up to 10 years to discover all its features. It targets the Middle East including the occupied west bank.

This is the wave of the future! We're seeing the beginning of a covert war. And once one side deploys a piece of malware everyone else can learn from it and build on it. Pandora's box has been opened! I wonder how long it'll be before our power systems go down or a nuclear plant goes out-of-control.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's not really that scary to me, the US military basically invented the internet. The internet has pretty much been an open book the entire time, some people just really know how to read it. A back door was found.. Off the start more than likely.. A big part to the socialists propaganda is the illusion that we are behind the times...

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

To sums up how I feel right now..

Jan 3, 2012 2:31:50 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Some thoughts for

2012....

The underlying theme in the USA this year will obviously be the elections. The most expensive elections in history most likely, this alone will be a stimulator for the economy. By April we will know more of how the job picture will look for the rest of the year, and how much was the regular seasonal bump. The lumber industry in NA however will be very strong. The Chinese govt will start building 1.2 million houses a year this year, for the next five years.

As those house holds are formed, there will be increased consumption in energy and food. We have seethe result of that this year in record profits for farmers and the fact that the USA is now a fuel exporter. The price of oil will be high because there are serous tensions building in the middle east, and from the China takes a stance on the middle east thread, we can see that come March, the Iranian elections are going to consume all the headlines.

Russia, more elections, they are also going to have an uprising this year unless we see Putin step down, and the situation in middle Africa with the Islamic militants will get more serious as the

"secular" democracies of the middle east and Northern Africa start coming online. China has just been awarded the first contract in Afghanistan to drill for oil, and they view the stability of Africa and the Middle east as their foremost goal in foreign policy(sound familiar?).

However, China has just as many internal problems to deal with as the rest of these countries, and during this transition of commies in the year of the dragon, we will see the Chinese people come alive as they push for greater freedoms from the leaders that are promising happiness not GDP.

Because of this, you will see China continue to do what they did in the fishing village and slowly start to give way to what the people want. They will have to have a military presence in Africa and the middle east within the next five years to protect their resources. They cannot afford to lift 600million people out of poverty, while keeping them controlled the way they want, while trying to keep resources secure.

IMO, the solution is clear, it's just not what the commies want. Oh well.

On the bright side, having businesses that need profits from consumers isn't the worst way to have things set up. Especially when you can invest in those companies that are going to be at the forefront of rebuilding the world as the last of the dictatorships crumble.

The economic numbers in the USA will be good for the coming quarter as all the major Econ numbers over the last month have been positive, and even though Europe is slowing down, there is still expansion in the USA, and now in India and China as well. This is also a signal that domestic consumption is picking up in China and India, because while the US was expanding in the second half of the year, India and China were declining with the problems in Europe. We all know that the problems in Europe are far from over.

The debt problems in Europe, the possible exit of countries from the Euro and now Japan's problems will be a great way to keep the D&G in the headlines, which will keep the indexes in check for the year, and could very well bring people back to the precious metals short term.

These of course, are all just the thoughts of a spectator that loves economics, long term Investing in quality companies, good interest rate AAA bonds, and property.

Feb 25, 2012 0:23:05 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Now that we are going into march and the Iranian story is staring to dominate the headlines, the next couple weeks as the elections get started there will give us a better idea of what is going to happen over the rest of the year in the Middle east.

There is already talks of GCC arming the Syrian rebels and Iran knows that if Assad falls, their people will be more empowered.

The Russian elections are also starting, Putin looks to win but his vote isn't as strong as he would like, let's all hope that Russia doesn't start to revolt now that Putin is going to retain control.

The Chinese have started to cut reserve ratios in the banks to spur growth and wages continue to climb. Export to Europe aren't picking up, so they HAVE to increase domestic demand. The great Chinese bubble continues to inflate, with trillions in reserves that bubble could grow for some time yet.

The debt in Europe and Japan has keep the market in check so far, JMO we would be looking at 14k right now if it wasn't for Europe. Interesting thing is that Asian manufacturing has really suffered because of the EU debt issue whereas the US's hasn't. There was a record crop planted this year, and the oil patch is still growing.

The US econ numbers have all been strong through the spring while EU was weak, and jobless claims have stayed low after xmas which is a great sign for continued strength. When you look at the healing housing market which has millions of potential clients ready for it if economy stay strong until spring, we can get a picture of a self sustaining US economy on the horizon.

Apr 15, 2012 0:49:50 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

The best part about what is starting to show is the strength in weakness. The reason I say this even though the Eastern countries have been fairly vengefully during the last 30-40 years toward us. That hate is directed at what Europe did during our development prior to the 1950’s. It was during that last 30-40 years that we here in the USA and Canada have done all we could through business to try and lift people up. Now that we are staying the course and helping out Long term, they are finally starting to trust us.

This light at the end of the tunnel is starting to show it’s head on this course of action. Western companies such as Costco and Siemens are making new inroads, we see the Chinese movie industry being shaped by Hollywood, and the outsourcing of jobs to India is creating a new market in hotels that didn't exist before.

The BRIC nations are stepping up and starting to donate internationally and KFC, the place that has lead the fast food revolution in Japan and China, is popping up all over Africa.

As these cycles continue, more and more balance will be restored to the world economy. There are plenty of ways to make money with business and we are really only about 250 yrs into the concept of Free Enterprise. Not really that long in comparison to our written word and only a speck in the history books when you look at our evolution.

Is there going to be issues along the way to everyone servicing their own economies?

Of course, this year for example we have already seen in the last 3-4 months the debt issues in Europe, that are still going to be around for a while. The issues that are being dealt with in the Middle East are coming to light, progress? Maybe, the talks between Iran and the UN security console apparently went good.

However, Iran’s population is about to revolt against them because of sanctions and the Chinese have more than their plate full now that North Korea has shown they won’t listen to them.

North Korea has successfully isolated themselves further, creating more social upheaval and more problems for China. This means that China is stuck in the ME/Africa, the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula, and they have all of the homeland issues.

With this last act of aggression from Korea it's to the point that China has no other choice but to let their people go, they now have far more to deal with on the international stage than they can handle.

However, this isn’t going to stop them from trying to control the way they let their people go.

This brings us back to the strength in weakness. China is supposedly going to be this great super power of tomorrow, the fact is that there is nothing but weakness in the fundamental structure of that country and it will ONLY succeed with the strength of the west.

Jun 2, 2012 23:07:21 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Halfway through the year and the worst job report in a year hits, not a good sign unless you understand that we are looking at a long term trend emerging here for sure (the swoosh economy as some have been calling it for a few years now ). Private jobs increasing and public jobs are decreasing, it’s not hard to imagine why as I’m sure most by now have seen the stories of the US “fiscal cliff” in 2013.

With no more room for public spending companies are stepping up. Exxon Mobile, Chevron, Potash Company of Sask, Cameco and others are all starting to invest in education across NA. Louisiana has just privatized their school systems, which will make it accountable to the tax payers because companies will still need to operate in the black to show good earnings. Since we know that the USA is slowing turning into a resource based manufacturing powerhouse, this should come as no surprise.

Especially since all across the oil patch there is already talk of a huge labor crunch and the only way these companies are going to change that is by revamping the education system here and getting kids into REAL work.

This leads back into the bad jobs report, and how the traders are overlooking the fact that manufacturing is still expanding, it slows and quickens, but it’s still expanding. A gauge for new orders picked up in may and the gauge for hiring remained strong.

Factory activity was solid in April and the housing market is starting to slowly recover. (Let’s not forget about the big auctions at Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae later this year.)

Heading into the busy summer season oil prices and other commodities are going in the right direction which means that gas prices will not be on the rise over the summer. Since companies like six flags are reporting solid earnings and growth it looks like people will be out enjoying their summer and back to school shopping; EARNINGS!

As discussed in January the euro situation is keeping the markets in check, with a new banking union and fiscal pack on the way we could actually be close(a year maybe) to seeing how this EU thing plays out.. Vunderbond or bust!!!

Iran has moved into the spotlight over the last six months for sure, with Syria hanging in the balance, Iran has been forced into talks with the UN and their “enemies”. Israel has, more than likely, had a few super computer viruses all across the Middle East for the last few years and they still don’t trust Iran, big surprise. So the green light is in from Israel, big surprise. However, the

interesting part about that is there have been new satellite shots of Iran apparently dismantling areas that were once thought used for nuclear weapons research.

Tied into the Middle East is the man that has seen his job come under heavy fire from his public; Putin. “Winning” his elections this spring under heavy protest might have been the worst thing for his political legacy, as many have vowed to have him out of office before his six years are up. Even Medeve isn’t afraid to speak up anymore and say that Democracy is no longer a bad word in Russia.

The other factor that keeps popping up is the slow down in China, the real story is the massive social bubble that is ready to pop. Never mind the 6 million or so empty homes that go with the ghost malls all across the nation. It’s this massive bubble that will end up being the Chinese’s best friend. Not the Communist party’s best friend mined you.

We have been hearing about China using their massive reserves to come in and save the Euro for the last couple of years. We have hear about China’s massive reserves buying up the world, we have heard endlessly about China’s massive reserves, yet the market seems to be ignoring that those massive reserves are staring to go to work in the consumer base. Wages are a huge problem at places like Foxconn and it’s not like hundreds of Tibetans are lighten themselves of fire because of Chinese rule or anything….

China will spend their massive reserves building up their consumer base because they see the writing in the wall. How do I know this? They have moved to stop the outflow of manufacturing in their county, which is one area that is truly suffering. It won’t work so the only way that they will be able to make it is to free their slaves. For the communist party this will be a slow motion plane crash. (The plane being their massive reserves dwindling away.)

The only thing is that the slow crash that happens there will funnel money to the rest of the world. This evidence is already showing up all across Africa and Latin America. In particular, a new report showing that people from Nigeria are outspending Americans in London.

As China builds up their people, the world will continue to rebalance, and everyone will have to service their own economies. Think it’s crazy or fake? Look to Saudi Arabia showering their people with money so they don’t revolt. This is of course the overall driver in the big trend of the American Renaissance. The swoosh continues, WE (the people) win!

A shorter version would be as per the Jan post.

Japan and Europe are in the news about debt. North Korea is isolated and China is having TONS of trouble at home (slowing manufacturing) and in the Sea around them.

Iran is isolated and Syria is ready to fall. Putin still can't control what's going on in Russia and China wants nothing but stability in that region because they have a big transition coming up at home.

The USA still doesn't need stimulus because it's still the strength in all this weakness, should be an interesting back to school season that is for sure.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Since this plays right into the trends for 2012 with elections, might as well post this here. Stay .

In Venezuela, pro-Chavez and opposition backers clash
www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ioGksdHzIfS6cU7CZkyWUJFlE4jw?docId=CNG.0a13d8ec4c343067e076c2040ce46f09.3d1

Supporters of Hugo Chavez sporting the bright red that symbolizes his populist movement clashed Wednesday with backers of the opposition candidate in next month's presidential election.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

So here we are in 2013, glad we made it through the end of the world in 2012.  In fact, not only did the world not end, looking at earnings for the fourth quarter, business was picking up in 2012.  We know the housing market really made strides on the way to recovery in the US, and before I go on, lets go back a year.......

Jan 3, 2012 2:31:50 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Some thoughts for 2012....

The underlying theme in the USA this year will obviously be the elections. The most expensive elections in history most likely, this alone will be a stimulator for the economy. By April we will know more of how the job picture will look for the rest of the year, and how much was the regular seasonal bump. The lumber industry in NA however will be very strong. The Chinese govt will start building 1.2 million houses a year this year, for the next five years.

As those house holds are formed, there will be increased consumption in energy and food. We have see the result of that this year in record profits for farmers and the fact that the USA is now a fuel exporter. The price of oil will be high because there are serous tensions building in the middle east, and from the China takes a stance on the middle east thread, we can see that come March, the Iranian elections are going to consume all the headlines.

Russia, more elections, they are also going to have an uprising this year unless we see Putin step down, and the situation in middle Africa with the Islamic militants will get more serious as the "secular" democracies of the middle east and Northern Africa start coming online.

China has just been awarded the first contract in Afghanistan to drill for oil, and they view the stability of Africa and the Middle east as their foremost goal in foreign policy(sound familiar?). However, China has just as many internal problems to deal with as the rest of these countries, and during this transition of commies in the year of the dragon, we will see the Chinese people come alive as they push for greater freedoms from the leaders that are promising happiness not GDP.

Because of this, you will see China continue to do what they did in the fishing village and slowly start to give way to what the people want. They will have to have a military presence in Africa and the middle east within the next five years to protect their resources. They cannot afford to lift 600 million people out of poverty, while keeping them controlled the way they want, while trying to keep resources secure.

IMO, the solution is clear, it's just not what the commies want. Oh well.

On the bright side, having businesses that need profits from consumers isn't the worst way to have things set up. Especially when you can invest in those companies that are going to be at the forefront of rebuilding the world as the last of the dictatorships crumble. The economic numbers in the USA will be good for the coming quarter as all the major Econ numbers over the last month have been positive, and even though Europe is slowing down, there is still expansion in the USA, and now in India and China as well. This is also a signal that domestic consumption is picking up in China and India, because while the US was expanding in the second half of the year, India and China were declining with the problems in Europe. We all know that the problems in Europe are far from over.

The debt problems in Europe, the possible exit of countries from the Euro and now Japan's problems will be a great way to keep the D&G in the headlines, which will keep the indexes in check for the year, and could very well bring people back to the precious metals short term.

These of course, are all just the thoughts of a spectator that loves economics, long term Investing in quality companies, good interest rate AAA bonds, and property.

  The reason I wanted to start in 2012 is because the highlighted parts of the entry above are what is starting to shape in the year ahead.  The election in the USA is bringing the biggest changes in US history in regards to health care, and we are starting to see the effects taxes will have with the payroll tax increase of Jan 1.  While the "fiscal cliff" was a hyped up, the reality of the situation is that a big company like Wal-mart thinks the payroll tax has hurt their bottom line. The payroll tax is only the first tax that is going to be implemented this year, and there are going to be some degree of budgets cuts coming up as the March 1 "fiscal cliff" passes.  Then we have to add in the fact that there are new medicare rules/taxes coming, and new taxes on investors starting in 2014.

  All of this sounds very pessimistic, especially when you consider that the debt problems in the EU are still not truly under control. However, the main thing that happened in 2012 that is combating all this bad news, is the same thing that will continue to grow through 2013; the USA's strength in all the weakness. We can see this story taking shape in the job market.  Just like at the start of 2012 when it looked like the USA was going to be able to keep coming back because of a healing domestic economy(housing) and increased exports, even as the EU entered into a recession(and it did), there is no reason to think now that 2013 will be any different. All this does mean one thing for sure though, continued slow growth.

The other big thing that is highlighted above is how China was really going to step up it's domestic consumption.  It looked like China was about to enter a recession in the middle of 2012, however, the move towards happiness not GDP kicked in and even though the manufacturing sector didn't really pick back up for China like it did for the USA in the second half of 2012, the Chinese economy started coming back because of the service sector.  There is no reason to think that this will change as the social problems are still very much there for China, from Tibet to Hong Kong, and now they also have a hostel North Korea to deal with, along with island problem against Japan and Russia.

The other thing that really started to take hold in 2012 was the issues in the Middle East.  We all seen the problems that emerged and the biggest thing that is happening there right now is that China is taking control of a key sea port in Pakistan.  This again plays into a highlighted trend above, China's goal of stability in the Middle East and Africa.  With civil wars raging from Syria to Mali, and political unrest going on for two years now in Egypt and Bahrain threatening to engulf the whole region that includes Iran trying to go nuclear, there is no way that some kind of "black swan" event won't come out of that region over the next two years.

To summarize, the trend of a recovering housing market coupled with increasing exports from energy and food production is set to take hold in 2013 in the USA.  With the added bonus that the manufacturing comeback in the USA is a two fold process, with 3D printing helping lead the way for smaller manufactures.  China will continue to focus on stability while doing what they can to flex their muscles in the South China Sea. India and Africa will follow suite with China in trying to increase domestic consumption while trying to promote stability.  While the Russians weren't successful in their Putin take down there is definitely trouble in paradise there, as Russia is having meetings with the ECB.

 Overall, volume is starting to take hold in the global economy and any "black swan" or market correction in 2013 because of emotions should be looked at as a buying opportunity for long term investors, because no matter what the markets will be up. Why? Because the whole world is moving towards love not war(business).

As always, just the thoughts of a long term business investor that loves dividend paying stocks, AAA bonds, and property.   

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The recent economic numbers confirm that the USA can keep a low growth rate while cutting government. The earnings reports confirm that companies can continue make money while the USA grows slowly, the EU shrinks, and the global economy grows.

The January consumer spending numbers are in and the new taxes that literally everyone around here was talking about are showing up. This WILL continue to happen through 2013 and 2014 as Obamacare comes online. There are some kind of govt jobs cut coming for sure and while I don't think it will cause riots on the streets, I think we will see a shift in workers that will continue to keep GDP low.

The shift in manufacturing to the USA is great to help with that trend, however, the other side to it is that China's manufacturing numbers are weak, this plays back into the trend of; the only way China grows is if the give their people money and freedom. I think that will continue to go slow as well(communism). I think It has become very apparent to China that they have a civil war problem, which is a good thing because maybe we can get through this whole thing without China descending into a civil war as well.

You would think that the Chinese would want to avoid the civil war at all cost because they have nothing but issues with all of their neighbours including their one time ally the North Koreans. The bottom line is that we should be able to expect some growth at basically the current pace we are seeing in China. Since the Chinese are starting to buy a few more Chinese companies(look at the cell phone market) it safe to say that earnings for companies out of China will be spread around a bit more.

Japan is still in deflation, India's growth is slowing down, the EU's jobless numbers continue to grow, and more recently the Canadian economy has began to shrink because of a slowing housing market that is just in it's beginning stages(per Mark C.) While this won't really amount to much inside the USA as far as economic growth goes, it will affect companies earnings that make money in all of these countries. That means the global growth part of the equation that has help carry this rally along isn't going to be as big.

Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Central Asia were adding to global growth over the past four or five years as well. However, in the past two years the civil wars have been spreading to more countries, and more countries are having to go through reforms. This is slowing a once rapid pace of expansion in some countries. Long term this will be great for company earnings, but short term it will help defences contractors mostly and affect global GDP(aka USA and others exports).

I am as excited as ever about the state of the US economy, even thought it only grew at 0.1 percent in the last quarter, businesses still spent on expanding in January. Which means that yes, business WILL spend to keep their empires going as socialism dies.(Thanks JC). However, this is going to be slow and there won't be huge growth in earnings inside of the USA.

Basically, there is a good possibility that these pessimistic earnings reports that companies have been smashing to keep this rally going over the last few years could actually be a little be more inline this year. We are looking at the scenario now that is slow growth inside the USA(same as before), the EU shrinking further and having less input that they did up until 2013, the global economy growth slowing, and in some cases decelerating(Canada).

Some people have been calling for the perfect storm of 2013 for a couple years now. Some have been calling for the extreme, as usual (Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini) while some have been calling for a more mild death to socialism.    To me it's perfectly clear who was right.

[frankq]

Nice info aham.