Over the Long Term the Markets WILL be Up;Invest Accordingly

[beenherebefore]

Hello everyone, interesting conversation!

Yes, the markets will be up until they go back down again, and so on and so forth.

I've been buying and selling for over 10 years now, having learned from my bad experience as a WorldCom employee and stockholder, and have been making money, some years 6%, some 12 and averaging at about 8%, which is very good for a jerk like me.

My latest aquisition is Alcoa, which I bought at 8.55.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Welcome beenhere. I agree, not sure if you read the first post, however, this is a thread that compliments the long term investor thread on IBB. The idea that wealth can be accumulated very easily by simply investing in good quality companies and reinvesting the dividends because the reality is that long term the markets will be up. Plus there is the added bonus along the way of buying when the D&G is saying there is blood on the streets, that will really make you happy to have kids...

The theme of the thread right now is how the EU, and their super socialist ways, are causing a recession, and the rest of the world is becoming disconnected from that. How it's their own fault, and that because of growth in manufacturing in India and China now, is signaling a pick up in domestic demand. Any thoughts?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Building on the thoughts for 2012...

Let the building begin!

China vows to continue developing west, northeast
www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-01/10/content_14410199.htm

Summary Box: China's central bank pledges prudent support for 'real economy'
www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/sns-bc-as--china-economy-summarybox,0,2949677.story

World Bank to recommend China financial reforms
finance.yahoo.com/news/world-bank-recommend-china-financial-215813224.html

Stability in Africa.

China’s role in North-South Sudan relations
www.sudantribune.com/China-s-role-in-North-South,41210

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Keeping with the trends..

Africa's growing trade and financial links with China
af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFWLA081520111228

Kuwait, China closer to $9 billion refinery deal
www.marketwatch.com/story/kuwait-china-closer-to-9-billion-refinery-deal-2012-01-07

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Bending to the will of the people.

Once Bitten, China to Temper Remarks on Taiwan Vote
www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/10/taiwan-election-china-idUSL3E8C95HI20120110

China has forgone blustery warnings and war games in the run-up to Taiwan's presidential election this weekend, and will likely take a measured response even if the independence-leaning opposition unseats friendlier incumbent Ma Ying-jeou.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The world is watching!

Foxconn workers threaten mass suicide over pay and conditions
www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2012/0112/1224310140652.html

Xbox workers threaten suicide in China labor tiff
www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2012/01/12/international/i053718S71.DTL&tsp=1

Foxconn Resolves Latest Labor Dispute
www.macobserver.com/tmo/article/foxconn_resolves_latest_labor_dispute/

Analysis: Wage rises, reforms keep China inflation entrenched
www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/12/us-china-economy-inflation-analysis-idUSTRE80B0DE20120112

Chen Xiaogang is having a hard time recruiting waiters for his restaurant, despite the near 20-percent annual pay hikes he's having to offer to attract some of China's lowest-skilled staff.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's all about volume. Spend those USDs on US hogs!

China pork prices to hog global indicator limelight
www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/06/us-china-economy-idUSTRE80502620120106

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The Paradox that is China. Fishing Village riots... Iphone riots.. I wonder why they can't keep their people down anymore.

Apple halts iPhone retail sales in China after store hit with eggs
www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/13/china-apple-idUSL3E8CD0MN20120113

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

China is starting to accept the reality that the only way they will continue to boots their economy is to boost their people.

China targets 10% growth in foreign trade: Xinhua
www.moneycontrol.com/news/world-news/china-targets-10-growthforeign-trade-xinhua_651065.html

China's Forex Reserves Decline
online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204542404577157852552391774.html

Reports of the death of the Chinese consumer have been greatly exaggerated
www.canada.com/business/Reports+death+Chinese+consumer+have+been+greatly+exaggerated/5992722/story.html

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

History in the making. Free Enterprise FTW!

A brighter future when China and India work hand in hand
www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2804184.ece

China village revolt leader named party boss
www.timeslive.co.za/world/2012/01/16/china-village-revolt-leader-named-party-boss

Look for people to start filling these malls over the next few years.

Chinese malls look for more shoppers
www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/028c060c-3f42-11e1-ad6a-00144feab49a.html#axzz1jbpxOjrY

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

To build on one of the trends for 2012. EU countries get downgraded, while Germany is contracting(confirming the EU recession) and the DOW is off 40. All a waiting game to see if China could, along with the US, withstand an EU recession. GDP from China in at 8.9%, better than expected and the EU problems are starting to look like a non issue. This weeks US econ numbers will go along way to clarity on if we see a decent earnings rally.

French Debt was sold off easily already this week, if the rest is sold, the ECB is using their 600 billion in deposits to buy that debt to get the EU out of recession. With the rest of the world growing, it won't be as hard as some believe to get the EU growing aging. Especially when the consumption and happiness trends continue.

Thousands of Workers Protest at Sanyo's China Plant
www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/16/us-china-protest-idUSTRE80F0FR20120116

Chinese Premier Wen takes aim at land seizures
www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/15/us-china-land-reforms-idUSTRE80E0K620120115

"No one is empowered to take away such rights," he wrote. He added that China must protect farmers' land property rights in rural land expropriation reforms, Xinhua said.

Amazing eh? From the same people that brought you Tiananmen Square.

Plus, Chinese freedoms are rubbing off on their neighbors and its Impressionable young leader.

AP opens full news bureau in North Korea
www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gncvW-5FzBYHz0--KCTBe6Fy0ZQw?docId=4294bd17b6884d9bb9156f2cad81c909

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Just some more proof that Europe, even thought it might roil the markets. Won't have as much economic affect as they want you to believe.

China’s Skyrocketing Consumption And Surging Urban Population
peakoil.com/consumption/chinas-skyrocketing-consumption-and-surging-urban-population/

Even more interesting, China’s urban population surpassed its rural population for the first time ever in 2011. According to the National Statistics Bureau, 51.3% of China’s 1.3 billion people now live in cities. Combine more city dwellers with rising incomes and you get the beginnings of the coveted transition from a purely export-based economy into a dynamic domestic/international machine.

China: A country where no one is secure
All classes of people suffer when population deprived of opportunity
www.marketwatch.com/story/china-a-country-where-no-one-is-secure-2012-01-17

India IT Behemoth Tata Consultancy Reports 20% Revenue Jump
www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2012/01/17/india-it-behemoth-tata-consultancy-reports-20-revenue-jump/?feed=rss_asia

Despite the slowdown in its main client base in Europe, India info tech giant Tata Consultancy Services reported a 20.6% increase in revenue year over year ending in the third quarter, topping off at $2.59 billion. Not bad for a company operating in recessionary Europe.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Nov 28, 2011 1:35:13 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

There is lots of talk about China, and how they ARE the developing world. However, there is another developing economy that is growing, and it also has a billion people that live on very little. 35% of the population in India is under the age of 14, and at one point in history it was the largest economy in the world. India became heavily socialized during the 20th century after British rule ended, however, just like everyone else that has broken free from the crown; they are finding out the business is the only way to truly support an economy.

Some interesting news on what is happening in India.

Coca-Cola to Pour $2 Billion Into India Over 5 Years
www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-news/asian-pacific/coca-cola-to-pour-2-billion-into-india-over-five-years/article2236092/

India opens door to foreign supermarket chains
www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/24/us-india-retail-idUSTRE7AN1V120111124

Car salesmen sell a dream to small-town India
www.dailyfinance.com/rtn/pr/car-salesmen-sell-a-dream-to-small-town-india/rfid507995618/?channel=pf

Even though they have protested the food markets opening up to foreigners, their socialism is dying. You can't subsidize forever.

India moves to let foreign airlines invest
www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/18/uk-aviation-fdi-idUSLNE80H01I20120118

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's all about the trends.

China consumers spend, even as growth eases
www.marketwatch.com/story/china-consumers-spend-even-as-growth-eases-2012-01-18

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

More Americanization, not by force like Hellenization was, but by CHOICE, because FREEDOM is becoming the reality of the world! Thanks JC!

Chinese Haute-Couture Steps Up at HK Fashion Week
www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/18/uk-hongkong-fashion-idUSLNE80H02U20120118

Turkey’s Young Shoppers Choosing Malls Powers Development Boom
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-18/turkey-s-young-shoppers-choosing-malls-powers-development-boom.html

China, Qatar to push for $12.6b refinery complex
gulfnews.com/business/investment/china-qatar-to-push-for-12-6b-refinery-complex-1.968359

China May Be World's Largest Sugar Importer by 2020
www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/18/china-sugar-cba-idUSL3E8CI4LJ20120118

Wind farms bought, built in central Montana
www.cbsnews.com/8301-505245_162-57362423/wind-farms-bought-built-in-central-montana/

Happiness not GDP

China villagers win quick concessions with protest
www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gm68cOi2f2e1Wa2bs61Z12lCfeKQ?docId=CNG.9cd615f7116176ce217e085ea4ed296c.221

Villagers in Guangdong province who protested against their leader have won unusually speedy official concessions, a resident said Thursday, amid fears of more unrest in China's manufacturing heartland.

The protest erupted Tuesday in Guangdong, which has experienced several bouts of violence, including a rare revolt in Wukan village last month that saw residents drive out local officials and vote in their own leaders.

In the latest protest, around 1,000 people from Wanggang village gathered in front of a government building in Guangzhou, capital of Guangdong, Tuesday in protest against Li Zhihang, their allegedly corrupt Communist Party secretary.

They waited there until the early hours of Wednesday, when they were told officials would probe their case and would announce the result of the investigation by February 19, Li Zhikai, a local villager, told AFP.

"They will dispatch a working team to our village to investigate property and financial records and have promised we can elect new members of a party committee," he said by phone.

The Guangzhou government was not immediately available for comment.

According to a petition posted online by the villagers, they had tried to petition the government on several occasions but to no avail, and so decided to protest peacefully.

This time, though, the government's response was very quick when compared with the drawn-out revolt in Wukan, where residents faced off with authorities for more than a week before officials gave in to their demands.

Nicholas Bequelin, a researcher at Human Rights Watch, said Guangdong authorities had no choice but to give in to the Wanggang protesters.

Otherwise, they "risk seeing their appeasement of Wukan turning from a 'successful' strategy to defuse social unrest to a failed policy that actually encouraged more protests," he told AFP.
And as the one-year anniversary of online calls for Arab-style protests in China approaches and the country prepares for a major leadership transition in the autumn, authorities are particularly keen to avoid further unrest.

"In the context of the current political jockeying ahead of the leadership transition, Wang Yang (Guangdong chief) must defend the validity of his populist approach," said Bequelin.

[Driftr]

Jan 20, 2012 10:47:17 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

Good for you Mr A for providing some alternative to the unrelenting DOOM & GLOOM on this board. The two remaining D&G believers continue to try to bait people into responding but rarely succeed.

Who are the two D&G believers?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Back to a part of post #93

Just building on these thoughts from the start of the year.

Jan 3, 2012 2:31:50 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Some thoughts for 2012....

The debt problems in Europe, the possible exit of countries from the Euro and now Japan's problems will be a great way to keep the D&G in the headlines, which will keep the indexes in check for the year, and could very well bring people back to the precious metals short term.

These of course, are all just the thoughts of a spectator that loves economics, long term Investing in quality companies, good interest rate AAA bonds, and property.

The last TWO days that should have brought a decent rally, stymied by the NEWS out of Europe. Now some new headlines are starting to creep up..

Japan's Finance Minister warns of eurozone-style debt crisis
english.peopledaily.com.cn/90777/7712512.html

However, there is still that other part of the thoughts from reply #93, the happiness in China thing...

Some Chinese aggrieved find inspiration in rebel village
uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/23/uk-china-village-unrest-idUKTRE80M07R20120123

Since the uprising late last year in Wukan, a coastal village of 15,000 in southern China's Guangdong province that challenged and won key concessions from provincial officials, other rural communities have taken note, and in some isolated cases, sprung to action.

China to build production bases for poor handicapped villagers
www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=770876&publicationSubCategoryId=200

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

LOL, you're proably right on both accounts. Lots and lots stocks are on a tear. Nice pick on APPL BTW... WOW, Iphones!

Best part about today, and we have been saying it's bound to happen, all on a day when this happened...

U.K. Risks Recession as Output Contracts
online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203806504577182323269264632.html

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I don't follow CAT that closely, so IDK if the results are a future indicator or not. You would think that one doesn't invest in big expensive equipment, and then turn around and not use it. Mining and oil production will continue, along with farming(more DEER). China has announce plans to build 6 million homes over the next 5 years, all in more remote areas so all these will need to be service as well. Plus China is making inroads around the globe to help build their economy up.

China Loans $1 Billion to Ecuador as Correa Seeks Bond Sale
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-24/ecuador-borrows-from-china-seeks-bond-sale.html

China committed to helping build Africa's self-development capability: official
english.peopledaily.com.cn/90883/7712889.html

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I have no issue with rational doom and gloom.

Classic!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Great call on CAT Rachets! Some news on that Global growth.

China Ex-Im Bank lends $41M for Bahamas project
www.dailyfinance.com/rtn/pr/china-ex-im-bank-lends-41m-for-bahamas-project/rfid527110163/?channel=pf

Also, some more VERY encouraging news on the US economy. It also shows that the US domestic market was indeed picking up while Europe was going into recession.

U.S. State Tax Revenue Tops Pre-Recession Level, Study Says
www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-27/u-s-state-tax-revenue-tops-pre-recession-level-study-says.html

[Driftr]

Jan 27, 2012 0:08:33 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

Driftr

Well one of them is Decoy. You would have to follow his threads to see the other one.

Why would anyone still follow Decoy's threads? The only time I open them up is if I see someone like rovo, Gdgyva, or neo post there.

Edit: For those of us who no longer read Decoy's threads, would you please point out the second irrational D&Ger?

[Driftr]

Jan 31, 2012 18:14:05 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

I cant remember his name and am not going to search the threads to find out. Really dont care.

Then I guess there's just one remaining D&Ger we need to stear clear of.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

LOL. That should be easy enough to do...

Especially because, WE WIN!!!!

China Protest Village Chooses New Leaders
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-02/china-protest-village-choose-new-leaders.html

Residents in the southern Chinese village of Wukan chose a committee yesterday to oversee independent elections, a process that Communist Party officials agreed to after protests ousted previous leaders.

More than 6,000 of Wukan’s 12,000 villagers voted for an independent committee that will supervise upcoming elections for a new village leadership, the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing local Communist Party chief Lin Zulian. The final tally was completed at 11 p.m. yesterday, the Beijing News reported.

The protests in December, sparked by complaints over illegal land deals and election fraud, led Communist Party leaders to acknowledge mistakes had been made and spurred official promises to clean up corruption and protect people’s rights. Lin, who helped lead the protests, was made village secretary after the dispute ended.

An investigation of village elections in February found that the candidate list had been kept secret and some of those overseeing the vote were also seeking office. Party leaders acknowledged that the protesters’ demands were “reasonable.”

On Jan. 13, Premier Wen Jiabao said Chinese people should be allowed to criticize their leaders. In the past, Wen has said the nation needs to pursue “institutional reform” and that any such changes must be done in an orderly way and under the Communist Party’s leadership.

In yesterday’s vote, villagers picked 10 men and one woman for the election committee, Beijing News said. Those chosen will not be allowed to run in the leadership elections, Xinhua said.

Thanks JC!

[Steady As She Goes]

But than we all know that the Fed is part of some GIANT CONSPIRACY because I saw it on the internet posted by some guy thats a high school drop out that lost his job in the auto industry and now posts a blog from his kitchen table siting around in his underwear.

And you know this for a FACT because

[clubv]

Why is deflation a problem assuming it helps the average joe

[Steady As She Goes]

Feb 2, 2012 16:44:31 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

I know that as a fact because...............many of those conspiracy people on the internet are nut cases.

(My statement in the post above this one was not aimed at ANYONE AND I DO MEAN ANYONE on this board, it was talking about the conspiracy blog type people that are all over the internet these days.)

No foul wxyz ... just found it humorous ... LOL

(I agree that there are an awful LOT of "___" cases out there though)

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Feb 2, 2012 10:44:44 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

Well at least.......YES THERE IS NO INFLATION.(according to the Fed today) All the anecdotal inflation and hyper inflation people for the past three years continue to be WRONG. Deflation continues to be the danger.

But than we all know that the Fed is part of some GIANT CONSPIRACY because I saw it on the Internet posted by some guy thats a high school drop out that lost his job in the auto industry and now posts a blog from his kitchen table siting around in his underwear.

110% agree with all the above, except the bold; guy, you're giving them too much credit, they have, and will always live at moms... ;D

[Driftr]

Feb 2, 2012 17:14:27 GMT -5 clubv said:

Why is deflation a problem assuming it helps the average joe

Unexpected deflation hurts the average Joe. The reason for this is because once deflation really gets going, noone knows when it will end. Google deflationary spiral and see what others more knowledgable than I have to say about it.

I'll summarize as I understand it though. When the average Joe sees prices falling he is more apt to wait to buy that discretionary item until the price falls further. If the average Jow sees prices increasing he is more apt to buy that discretionary item today.

If enough average Joes start waiting for the prices to fall further the companies that make the items start laying people off in order to remain afloat. This results in fewer people able to afford things at existing prices and the prices fall further resulting in more layoffs.

Personally I believe that the Fed should try to keep prices stable as in flat (not 2-3% targeted inflation). It would be understood that if the Fed over or undershot their target 0% they would put policies in place that would attempt to correct that the following period (be it a quarter or a year).

[The Virginian]

Why is deflation a problem assuming it helps the average joe

From my point of view ( Retail Store) here it is:

I paid $10 for a item and normally sell it for $15. This gives me a profit from which I pay employees, rent, Ins, Taxes, Utilities, and hopefully there is something left for me.

I have to maintain a large inventory of products so when you come into my store you are not disappointed and are able to find what you are looking for.

When all of a sudden that item I sell for $15 and paid $10 for is now available for $8 then I have to lower my price so you will buy it or else you will go next door and get it at $8.

The problem is I can't afford to replace that item in my inventory because I have lost money on it. I can't afford to pay my other bills or employees. If you are one of my employees you may have just lost your job and it keeps snow balling from there. A viscous spiral downward.

With inflation I can raise my prices to make up for the increased cost of goods to some extent. Of course employees will demand more wages because the goods they need cost more but it doesn't usually affect my inventory as much - Unless there is hyperinflation - which is almost as bad as Deflation.