Over the Long Term the Markets WILL be Up;Invest Accordingly

[usaone]

Oct 10, 2011 7:45:35 GMT -5 Small Biz Owner said:

DOW 13,500 DEC 31 2011!!!!

Good luck with that. We never hit that mark, even earlier this year, before all these current problems came about.

Great day today!

13,500 on the way.

APPLE UP over 5% today.

[kman]

Imagine that I'm ready for the big ride up!!!

[usaone]

BAC up 6.5%

[usaone]

Market up over 1,000 points in a week.

[Small Biz Owner]

And only 1,400 points lower than it was 5 months ago. What a rally

[usaone]

And why are you rooting against stocks?

[usaone]

Another good day. Looks like a bull market again.

[usaone]

S&P up almost 2% today.

[flow5]

It's time to buy some call options (Jan exp.).

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Well how about this bit of irony? If we include the people protesting the end of socialism in Greece(just to be nice), we had roughly 400K people protesting the end of Capitalism this weekend. Roughly three million showed up for the launch of the iPhone 4s(supposed to flop), and that's excluding the 1 million that bought online..

I wonder how Appl is going to do this quarter??

[usaone]

GDP for Q3 came in at 2.5% not bad.

I guess the double dip has been postponed.

[usaone]

Stock Market at 12,150!

Dow going HIGHER!

[flow5]

The Commerce Department announced on Thursday that third-quarter gross domestic product grew 2.5 percent, boosted by higher consumer spending, allaying fears that the economy is slipping into another recession.

The GDP rate was in line with what economists were expecting. The 2.5 percent growth rate is almost triple the 0.9 percent pace of economic growth in the first half of this year, which has been far too slow to generate any job growth. Unemployment has remained stubbornly high at over 9 percent.

"Clearly today's GDP report is indicative of an economy that is extracting itself from a temporary soft patch, and not one that is rolling into another recession," Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist with Federated Investors, said.

The revised second-quarter GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, the Commerce Department announced at the end of September. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.
The strongest element of the GDP report was personal consumption.
Real personal consumption expenditures -- household spending -- increased a more-than-expected 2.4 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent in the previous quarter.

"That's a trend we think has legs into Christmas given the strength of the back-to-school season in August and September," Orlando said.
Household spending increased higher than expected at 2.4 percent in the third quarter, according to the Commerce Department's GDP report, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent in the previous quarter.

Orlando added that the GDP figure has the potential to be revised higher for its first revision in one month, when all data from September is included.

John Bowler, director of country risk service with the Economist Intelligence Unit, said purchasing managers' indices for the manufacturing and services sectors had suggested an improvement in September's activity, and private consumption and industrial production have been rising. Among the releases before Thursday's report were income growth and retail sales, which increased 1.1 percent in September to $395.5 billion, the biggest gain in seven months thanks in large part to auto sales, the Commerce Department reported earlier this month.

Bowler said on balance the data suggest some improvement in economic conditions, which can largely be traced to a fall in oil prices in recent months, the resolution of supply chain bottlenecks stemming from the natural disasters in Japan, and an end to the uncertainty created by the debt ceiling debate in Congress in early August
=====================
As nominal gDp goes, so goes DJIA

[usaone]

S&P UP 51 POINTS!!

Here we go!!

[usaone]

S&P UP 51 POINTS!!

Here we go!!

[Deleted]

A nice rally in market's today

The question is....

Is it sustainable?

Are the issues in Europe actually being resolved....or being kicked down the road for future considerations

I am...and have been...almost entirely in equities

Hoping this rally has steam

[usaone]

BAC up almost 10%!!

[Driftr]

Oct 27, 2011 15:20:46 GMT -5 @gdgyva said:

A nice rally in market's today

The question is....

Is it sustainable?

Are the issues in Europe actually being resolved....or being kicked down the road for future considerations

I am...and have been...almost entirely in equities

Hoping this rally has steam

Seems like Greece is resolved for a while. The question is, do the sharks start circling the waters in Portugal/Italy/Spain next?

Should also be interesting to see if anyone screams too loud about their 50% haircut on the Greek Bonds they held and their apparent inability to cash in on the overpriced(?) CDS they had purchased.

[usaone]

Oct 27, 2011 15:20:46 GMT -5 @gdgyva said:

A nice rally in market's today

The question is....

Is it sustainable?

Are the issues in Europe actually being resolved....or being kicked down the road for future considerations

I am...and have been...almost entirely in equities

Hoping this rally has steam

I would stay loooooonnnng!!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Oct 27, 2011 8:36:53 GMT -5 usaone said:

GDP for Q3 came in at 2.5% not bad.

I guess the double dip has been postponed.

I guess the GDP surprised some, eh USAWON?!? K4u!!

That article is exactly what I have been looking at for months flow5, that and the M3.

IMO sun, the news will trickle out that it will be done with bonds. Money made on the spread between old debt and selling new deb,t used to re capitalize the banks. However, i agree with driftr that the rest of the PIIS are next. IMO, it will be over a period of a few years though.

[Driftr]

Who makes money (and how much do they make) selling CDS on sovereign debt and will they see their income stream from that part of the business dry up if people realize that the CDS aren't worth the paper they're printed on?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Great link sun.

From what I can gather Driftr, it isn't a CDO, exactly, it will be a Federal Reserve, basically. The ESFS will make the money on the spread, and use that to put capital into the banks. So the ESFS, in theory, could, make the the bonds worthwhile.

This is what I was talking about when I was saying that the news will trickle out.

Euro bailout chief says talks with China 'productive'
www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2011-10/30/content_14002572.htm

Klaus Regling, chief executive officer of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) said in a lecture at Tsinghua University that the purpose of his visit to China was to "listen to potential investors" and "get their views" so as to make the EFSF bonds "interesting" to buyers.

Virgil might remember the conversation we had when I said that they were going to tailor it to suit the Chinese and their need to diversify their four bond funds.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sorry I keep typing ESFS.. The EFSF strikes again!

EFSF Sells Bond Amid Weak Conditions
online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204554204577023673469644672.html

[reasonfreedom]

Dow at 11,500, any bets against the 13,500 prediction? I would lay some money on it.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

13,500 will be a tough one now. But the markets are still looking to be up for the year.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Big FREAKIN surprise!

Europe agrees on EFSF, seeks deeper union: reports
Germany, France study ways to deepen fiscal union
www.marketwatch.com/story/europe-agrees-on-efsf-imf-to-aid-italy-reports-2011-11-27?link=MW_story_popular

[reasonfreedom]

I think Germany should just go back to the Deutschmark and take its losses. If they keep this up, pretty soon they will be talking about a one world currency.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

There already kind of is. the Froex market links all them together and generates 4 Trillion dollars a day. Which will only grow as BRIC's economies grow and they trade more.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Some thoughts for 2012....

The underlying theme in the USA this year will obviously be the elections. The most expensive elections in history most likely, this alone will be a stimulator for the economy. By April we will know more of how the job picture will look for the rest of the year, and how much was the regular seasonal bump. The lumber industry in NA however will be very strong. The Chinese govt will start building 1.2 million houses a year this year, for the next five years.

As those house holds are formed, there will be increased consumption in energy and food. We have see the result of that this year in record profits for farmers and the fact that the USA is now a fuel exporter. The price of oil will be high because there are serous tensions building in the middle east, and from the China takes a stance on the middle east thread, we can see that come March, the Iranian elections are going to consume all the headlines.

Russia, more elections, they are also going to have an uprising this year unless we see Putin step down, and the situation in middle Africa with the Islamic militants will get more serious as the "secular" democracies of the middle east and Northern Africa start coming online.

China has just been awarded the first contract in Afghanistan to drill for oil, and they view the stability of Africa and the Middle east as their foremost goal in foreign policy(sound familiar?). However, China has just as many internal problems to deal with as the rest of these countries, and during this transition of commies in the year of the dragon, we will see the Chinese people come alive as they push for greater freedoms from the leaders that are promising happiness not GDP.

Because of this, you will see China continue to do what they did in the fishing village and slowly start to give way to what the people want. They will have to have a military presence in Africa and the middle east within the next five years to protect their resources. They cannot afford to lift 600 million people out of poverty, while keeping them controlled the way they want, while trying to keep resources secure.

IMO, the solution is clear, it's just not what the commies want. Oh well.

On the bright side, having businesses that need profits from consumers isn't the worst way to have things set up. Especially when you can invest in those companies that are going to be at the forefront of rebuilding the world as the last of the dictatorships crumble. The economic numbers in the USA will be good for the coming quarter as all the major Econ numbers over the last month have been positive, and even though Europe is slowing down, there is still expansion in the USA, and now in India and China as well. This is also a signal that domestic consumption is picking up in China and India, because while the US was expanding in the second half of the year, India and China were declining with the problems in Europe. We all know that the problems in Europe are far from over.

The debt problems in Europe, the possible exit of countries from the Euro and now Japan's problems will be a great way to keep the D&G in the headlines, which will keep the indexes in check for the year, and could very well bring people back to the precious metals short term.

These of course, are all just the thoughts of a spectator that loves economics, long term Investing in quality companies, good interest rate AAA bonds, and property.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The slow move to EU irrelevance is on.

India, China Economies Show Asia Resilient as Europe Falters
www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-03/india-china-economies-show-asia-resilient-as-europe-falters.html