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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 21:40:02 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #90 - 10/21/09 11:04 AM
Corn keeps going up, up, up. Over an increase of 10 just today, and the day is not over. ;D
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 21:49:24 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #91 - 10/21/09 11:06 AM
Corn Dec 09 384-2 398-4 381-2 396-2 +11-6 10:49
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 21:49:49 GMT -5
fiscan
Message #92 - 10/21/09 11:15 AM
So I could have made money by taking advice from some nut on an anonymous message board..... damn.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 21:50:15 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #93 - 10/21/09 11:33 AM
My politics are one thing. I have been involved in commodities since 1985. I take such a conservative approach to investing in the commodities markets, that I rarely get it wrong. I still do though every now and again, but not usually.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 21:50:37 GMT -5
fiscan
Message #94 - 10/21/09 11:44 AM
And your political views are also rarely wrong!
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 21:51:04 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #95 - 10/21/09 12:46 PM
Corn Dec 09 384-2 401-0 381-2 400-0 +15-4 12:29
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 21:52:19 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #96 - 10/21/09 12:48 PMStalk and Ear Rots Prevalent in Iowa By Alison Robertson, Department of Plant PathologyThe cool, wet growing season has favored infection and the development of certain corn ear and stalk rots in Iowa. Foliar diseases that occurred earlier in the growing season may have increased the risk of stalk rots in fields. In corn trials across the state, anthracnose and Gibberella stalk rots are common. Ear rots that are being reported across the state include Diplodia, Gibberella and Fusarium. www.agronext.iastate.edu/
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 21:54:35 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #97 - 10/21/09 12:50 PMwww.agronext.iastate.edu/ (2009 archives list) 2009 Corn Quality Issues – Storage Management By Charles Hurburgh, Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering; Roger Elmore, Department of AgronomyIt looks like we will have another large wet crop, especially in eastern Iowa. There is less room to accommodate problems from this year because the grain market system is already overloaded with poor quality corn from 2008 crop. However, we learned from 2008 – extra cost in additional handling and drying logistics is likely to pay off in terms of avoiding spoilage losses later on. This would not be a good year to take chances that wetter corn will keep and can be absorbed in the spring/summer
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 21:55:50 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #98 - 10/21/09 12:53 PM
You still can. When the official reports come out concerning conditions, damage, storage, etc., I wouldn't be surprised to see corn jump to $7 or greater. ;D
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 21:59:11 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #99 - 10/21/09 01:17 PMwww.agronext.iastate.edu/2009 Corn Quality Issues – Field Molds By Alison Robertson, Department of Plant Pathology; Roger Elmore, Department of Agronomy; Charles Hurburgh, Department of Agricultural and Biosystems EngineeringFrost Oct. 10 and 11 ended the crop growing season in most parts of the state, at the same time the USDA announced October yield estimates of 186 bushels per acre in Iowa. Although high grain yields are expected, reports of quality issues are surfacing. Cool wet fall conditions favor the development of ear rots caused by Fusarium spp. These white or pink ear rots are often found in ear corn stored too wet. Field moistures in the low 20s over a long period can favor growth of these fungi, provided temperatures are warm enough (usually above 45F). These fungi also can produce several toxins that harmful to people and livestock – vomitoxin, zearalenone, and fumonisin. Grain with field mold should be tested for mycotoxins before feeding. Scouting and harvesting fields with disease problemsHigh moisture conditions favor growth of many ear and stalk rot fungi. Fields should be scouted as soon as possible to determine the extent of disease problems. To minimize losses due to ear rot and increased mycotoxin levels, it is recommended that producers harvest problem fields (greater than 10-15 percent incidence of ear rot) as soon as possible. The longer the corn remains in the field, the greater the chance of toxin production. The toxins most likely to increase in the field at this time are those associated with Gibberella and Fusarium ear rots - namely vomitoxin, zearalenone and fumonisin. Diplodia ear rot is more prevalent this season than in previous years. Although mycotoxins associated with Diplodia ear rot have not been reported in the U.S., grain quality will decrease substantially if the corn is allowed to remain in the field, thus early harvest is also recommended in these fields. Adjust harvest equipment to minimize damage to kernels since mold and mycotoxin levels tend to be at greater levels in damaged kernels. Dry (to less than 15 percent moisture) and cool (to less than 45 degrees F) grain as quickly as possible to reduce further mold growth and toxin production. Elevator operators, especially in eastern Iowa report cases of visible mold damage levels 5 percent and higher. In normal years, overall mold damage levels are generally less than 2 percent in freshly harvested corn. High damage levels in harvested grain create challenges for grain grading, particularly in the harvest rush. Damaged corn sharply reduces the future storage life of the grain. Storage issuesStorage and harvest management will be particularly important. Field damaged grain, regardless of reason, should not be mixed with good grain. Producers should harvest around water holes, downed grain and immature areas. Do not mix damaged grain with good grain in storage. Regardless of condition, all grain should be aerated immediately to reduce temperature and equalize moisture. Field damaged grain will not store beyond the winter months. Maintain 1 to 2 percentage points lower moisture than normal grain (for example, 13 percent corn instead of more typical 15 percent). Do not try to hold field damaged corn at higher moistures to avoid drying expense. If you suspect mycotoxin problems, check with crop insurance providers to see if adjustments may be needed, and how to represent the areas to be adjusted. Your veterinarian or the local USDA grain inspection service provider can assist with obtaining mycotoxin testing. Crop adjustments for quality problems, including mycotoxins, must be done on standing corn at or before harvest. Accurate grading of field-damaged grain is always difficult in the rush of harvest. Expect end users, such as ethanol plants, to increase their level of grading because mold and weather damage reduce processing yields/byproduct quality. An Official USDA grade is the standard against which buyer analysis should be compared. It is important that company graders be trained to match USDA
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:00:32 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #100 - 10/21/09 05:34 PM
You know, some people are slow at the gate, but somehow still manage to be able to catch on. Maybe there is hope for some of the huddled masses after all.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:01:31 GMT -5
Reformed DayTrader
Message #101 - 10/21/09 06:52 PM
"Oh Lord, it's hard to be humble
When you're perfect in every way
I can't wait to look in the mirror
Cause I get better lookin' each day
To know me is to love me
I must be a hell of a man
Oh Lord, it's hard to be humble
But I'm doin' the best that I can".................Conrad Twitty song Circa 1970..
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:02:11 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #102 - 10/21/09 08:52 PM
Opinions are like A$$holes. Everybody has one and some stink more than others.
Seeing how I have only been dealing in factual information, I choose to ignore the stinkers.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:05:09 GMT -5
Reformed DayTrader
Message #103 - 10/21/09 09:05 PM Yea right!!! Another factoid or a real stinker..?? I...I....I...I... I..I....  You're so vain (so vain)
I'll bet you think this song is about you
Don't you? Don't you? Don't you? Carly Simon Circa 1975
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:08:23 GMT -5
Value-Buy
Message #104 - 10/22/09 09:20 AM
Corn crop in Indiana and Ohio is coming in fast and furious right now.
Hedge funds still dumping money into crop and fuel commodities. Full speed ahead, but remember we are in a big recession, very high unemploymet, and guess what happens when the public does not buy anything due to high prices and no income.......
If you know when to get out, you can become rich, but when the music stops, and your left standing.........
it is not very pretty
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:08:55 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #105 - 10/22/09 03:06 PM
Corn Dec 09 396-2 405-0 393-2 403-4 +5-2 10/22/09
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:09:21 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #106 - 10/22/09 09:59 PM
Corn Dec 09 403-2 408-4 403-0 408-0 +4-4 21:39
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:09:55 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #107 - 10/23/09 08:59 AM
Corn Dec 09 403-2 411-4 403-0 411-0 +7-4
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:10:31 GMT -5
Value-Buy
Message #108 - 10/23/09 09:29 AMStay Put, make sure you are not biddding against your own position, bidding your price ever higher 
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:11:21 GMT -5
Steve Goober
Message #109 - 10/23/09 12:01 PM
One thing is for sure. Time will tell the outcome soon. It is apparent that different forms of manipulation are ever present in all markets. GS and others play in the seasonal cycles of commodities as well, so whats a guy to do? I could not agree more that all markets have changed probably forever due to the underlying dynamics changing. In other words the rules have been changed, the underlying "basis" of all transactions and investing of any type is going thru a metamorphosis. The only specific I can determine as a given is this.
The US will decline as an economic force and others will rise up and take a large share of what was once a power house driven by innovation, productivity and FREE MARKETS!
Asia is the future of all markets and the US will decline in all things. Obama has simply speeded up the process to warp speed partly because of his ignorance and blindness to his political agendas and partly because of his naivety. So long as there is anywhere near 50% supporting the communist/fascist scheme of things, there is little if any hope for a better day. If that support should change to a lesser amount, there is more hope. Simple as that. I am very disappointed in the American people for being so foolish and irresponsible for their future. That should concern us all and motivate us to a better end by speaking your mind and informing others. Good luck to all...Goober
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:12:39 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #110 - 10/23/09 01:03 PM
Value, again you misunderstand the commodities markets. You're mixing apples with oranges. Save for the metals, the commodities markets are completely different from the stock markets in that they cannot be so easily manipulated by the government or Wall Street. Even people with a basic understanding of the commodities markets understand this fact.
When the government reports that there is a bumper crop in corn expected, with a 185 bushels per acre, they still cannot hide the facts about the lack of quality, disease, ear and stalk rot, moisture content, and total lack of storage capacity for all of the unusable corn, etc., and these real issues come out and affect markets accordingly.
From the very beginning I have only advocated making an investment based upon Flood; Freeze, Drought, Disease, War. Things that, save for war, cannot be manipulated or controlled by anyone. The stock markets, on the other hand, are nothing but total manipulation and controlled by the FED, and the banksters. The two markets are as different as night and day.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:13:53 GMT -5
fiscan
Message #111 - 10/23/09 01:07 PM
I did not know that, exactly. Wild stuff.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:14:31 GMT -5
Value-Buy
Message #112 - 10/23/09 01:45 PM
commodity markets are much more easily manipulated than stock markets.
The metal, energy and grain markets are notorious for this.
The Hunt brothers for silver and Enron for all sorts of energy, and G.S. for everthing else.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:15:56 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #113 - 10/23/09 02:08 PM
I've already stated that the metal markets are manipulated. Gold, for example has been historically manipulated (in secret) by the world's governments, as they by doing so, place a false and inflated value on the dollar. As such, we can never know what is happening with the metals market, is either supply and demand, the governments, or both, and should be avoided like the plague.
Grain and oil, on the other hand CANNOT be manipulated as you try to assert. When OPEC states that they are either reducing or increasing production, WE KNOW ABOUT IT, and as investors know how to invest accordingly. Also, when winter comes it gets cold; the demand for heating oil, NG, etc goes up, and the prices ALWAYS follow the demand. Look at the charts for the past 30 years. They prove me out.
With any of the commodities (outside of the metals, excuse me, and FOREX) overproduction or any one of the problems that I have already listed, will affect the market in question(.)
I would suggest that if you or anyone else interested in possibly investing in the commodities markets, take a year of solid study. Add to that year of study, another year of paper trading. At that time, you will see for yourselves just how factual my statements are.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:17:21 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #114 - 10/23/09 02:12 PM
Again, Apples and Oranges. Stop comparing commodities with stocks. They are .....Oh never mind.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:18:24 GMT -5
Reformed DayTrader
Message #115 - 10/23/09 04:35 PM
Global demand lifts grain, and food prices, gobbles supplies ...as well as spiraling oil prices. Food needs fertilizer, and to make fertilizer, you need energy.............so we are back to J.J. Samuelson's outside readings for Economics 101 Supply vs Demand = Prices of commodities, and can't these prices be easily manipulated by speculators or greedy Arabs who sit on millions of barrels of oil..??
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:22:15 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #116 - 10/29/09 04:13 PMwww.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajszzvQFfG3oBy Jeff Wilson - October 29, 2009 15:33 EDT Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Corn rose for the first time in five sessions and soybeans gained the most in a week as a declining dollar boosts investment demand for raw materials and low prices prompts purchases by makers of food, animal-feed and biofuels. The dollar fell as much as 1 percent against the euro after a report showed the U.S. economy grew in the third quarter after a year of contraction. First-time claims for jobless benefits dropped to a seven-month low. Before today, corn plunged as much as 12 percent from a four-month high last week and soybeans dropped as much as 6.5 percent from a 10-week high. “The reports tell people that the economy is doing a little better, and that’s positive for grain demand,” said Mark Schultz, a vice president at Northstar Commodity Investments LLC in Minneapolis. “The attitude among end-users is to buy” when prices are falling because of concern that wet weather may reduce yields and the quality of U.S. crops, he said. Corn futures for December delivery rose 10.5 cents, or 2.8 percent, to $3.795 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, after yesterday touching $3.6375, the lowest since Oct. 9. The price reached a four-month high of $4.135 on Oct. 23 as wet, cold weather stalled the U.S. harvest. Soybean futures for January delivery rose 16.5 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $9.87 a bushel, the biggest gain since Oct. 21. Yesterday, the price fell to $9.62, the lowest since Oct. 9. The most-active contract reached a 10-week high of $10.2925 on Oct. 23. Mostly Dry Forecast Gains were extended after the National Weather Service updated forecasts at midday, calling for rains to return by Nov. 5 and again on Nov. 11 from Kansas to Illinois, a change from this morning’s forecasts for a dry spell though Nov. 12, said Drew Lerner, the president of World Weather Inc. in Overland Park Kansas. Some fields from Arkansas to Illinois received record rainfall this month, increasing speculation that crop yields may decline. About 80 percent of the corn fields and 56 percent of soybeans hadn’t been harvested by Oct. 25, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said this week. “The forecasts were a little wetter, and that increased fears about lost production,” said Ron Mortensen, the president of Advantage Ag Strategies Ltd. in Fort Dodge, Iowa. “Farmers will have to get more of the crops harvested before we will know the extent of any rain damage. We definitely reduced the quality of the crop, but the yields are still very good.” Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at $47.4 billion in 2008, followed by soybeans at $27.4 billion, according to the USDA. The U.S. is the world’s largest producer and exporter of both.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:23:53 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #117 - 11/13/09 11:54 AM
Late Harvest and Crop Insurance Coverage
By William Edwards, Department of Economics
Iowa and other Corn Belt states are experiencing one of the latest and slowest harvest seasons on record. Some producers have had concerns about whether their crop insurance coverage will be still be in effect if harvesting drags into December.
The standard policy for corn and soybeans in the Midwest states that Dec. 10 is the end of the insurance period. However, producers may request their insurance company to allow them additional time to complete harvesting. This can be granted when timely notice is given to the agent and the delay is due to an insured cause, such as wet weather or snowfall. This will allow any claims to be settled based on actual harvested production rather than an appraisal in the field.
Generally, if insured acres are still not harvested by early December, producers should contact their crop insurance agents and request additional harvest time beyond Dec. 10. Producers are required to make an honest effort to harvest the crop during the extended period if conditions allow, or to document why they were unable to do so with a written record and even photos.
The Risk Management Agency, which regulates multiple peril crop insurance policies, recently issued a program announcement regarding wet harvest conditions. The standard crop insurance policies cover quality losses due to low test weight, foreign material and mold, as well as low yields and prices. However, increased drying costs and charges are not covered.
William Edwards is a professor of economics with extension responsibilities in farm business management.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:24:56 GMT -5
cedaredge
Message #118 - 11/13/09 01:15 PM
;D Stay, I'd more apt to take advice from you than "what's his face" but I ain't playin' with commodities!
You have a good weekend and good luck with what you're doin ;D
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 22:25:46 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #119 - 11/13/09 04:23 PM
cedaredge, I have stated many times that no one should ever consider getting into the commodities markets until they have first learned the markets, and then paper trade for quite some time. Those interested should also do their own research, and make their own decisions based on that research. Also, two people looking at the same research can come up with different conclusions. This is primarily based upon the psychological make up of each investor. Certain research, however, precludes investor psychology. For example, something that will threaten a crop, as I have discussed previously.
The lure in the commodities markets, is that for a couple of hundred dollars, the average Joe has, does, and will stand to make literally tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of dollars on choosing the right commodity option (at the right time). Plus, the most that the option investor can ever lose, is the couple of hundred dollars that they invested in that option. However, risk of loss (even on an option is real), so I do not blame you or anyone else who prudently stay away from the commodities markets.
I only take exception to those who attack and argue, when they know nothing or next to nothing about commodities, and base all of their attacks on either something that they heard, or think they know. These individuals are not grounded in either extensive research or real knowledge.
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