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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:24:10 GMT -5
Reformed DayTrader
Message #32 - 10/09/09 07:14 AM
Since I trade stocks and bonds for a living, I did check into buying Corn and Heating Oil as this OP recommended, and I think I will pass and stay with trading IPO's which I think are better investments for the short term...but thanx for your advice and if it turns out to be a good call then we will have missed out on a golden opportunity. But those things do happen to us traders once in a while...
But again I am a Reformed DayTrader and not a long term investor and there is a huge difference....i.e., I sometimes will buy a stock in the Pre Market trading and sell or buy more later that day depending on the price fluctuations.. And some IPO's price fluctuations can be as much as 50% in one day...much like riding a rollercoaster. and not for everyone who doesn't understand the IPO market..
I know some very knowledgeable Commodity traders who have lost their shirts in the Commodities markets because of factors way beyond their control, i.e weather, politics, international crisis, geopolitical issues and of course my favorite Speculators who really control these markets...
Who are theses losers on this board you continuously refer to?? Are they mostly those who disagree with your views?? It would be nice to know who they are so we can avoid their stock or investment advice, and just follow your views in lock step, I would guess??.... But as I said before I will pass on your advice and recommendations...
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:28:18 GMT -5
AEKara
Message #33 - 10/09/09 07:36 AM
Everyone has an "investment style" or what most of us call strategy. Mine since 2000 has been very concentrated stock investments in companies that not only give a generous dividend but increase it year to year. These companies usually have a great management team and a long term plan to grow the business.
In addition to this you have to look at the entire world economy and where we are headed. That is why I also trade options to catch an upswing or protect my positions. You have to mix that with how much money you actually want to risk. For example if I traded put options last fall I would have made millions (and i was as certain as I can be the market was heading to 7K from 9K but didn't trust the Fed and its printing).
I didn't, but rather I used the sell covered calls then used that money to buy the stock at much less. The strategy worked to the point that I protected my investment overall (only lost about 8% of my portfolio, by the end of March). Needless to say with the market bounce I have done well. The ones however that took the risk with out and out puts simply made millions.
I do agree it takes discipline and knowledge but then again tell me something that does not in order to be successful.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:29:49 GMT -5
Reformed DayTrader
Message #34 - 10/09/09 10:41 AM Sometimes you just need to be a bit LUCKY which helps a lot.... 
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:31:15 GMT -5
traelin0
Message #35 - 10/09/09 10:50 AM
Here's the thing. I have the discipline but not the knowledge, and I know this sounds like the ultimate cop-out, but I just don't LIKE equities that much. I know I know, I'm missing out on a lot of money I'm sure. But TBH, I just don't care about money enough to spend all day worrying about it, know what I mean?
I give an awful lot of props to you guys who know how to play the markets. I admit I'm about as clueless as one can be on picking stocks. But I really would rather spend my time reading a good book or learning more about econ/math/whatever, than jumping into a bed of snakes.
I do like commodities an awful lot, but not enough to jump into a rigged market. So I will probably die well off/middle class, but I doubt I'll ever be rich. And I don't really care because, for me, knowledge is power and I can't take my money with me when I push up daisies.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:31:43 GMT -5
tj001
Message #36 - 10/09/09 11:00 AM
I like ya traelin, even if you are set on buying gold. Never stop learning. If you want to hoard anything... hoard reference books. Engineering, chemistry, dictionaries, etc. Food, guns and ammo are always a good suggestion also.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:32:33 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #37 - 10/09/09 12:46 PM
RDT, the points that you have made are very reasonable, and I have also stated, there are no guarantees in this life, but I do believe that commodities are as close to it (with a whole lot of work) as possible. I also do not advocate day trading in commodities. I couldn't get any sleep if I subscribed to that approach to the markets.
Back in 1985, I put $10,000 on coffee calls. People said that I was insane, and a few tried to justify their attacks based on their hearing about a freeze in Brazil which threatened the entire crop. You see they just didn't know how the markets work. Their attacks were based on fragmented information without understanding just how that information actually affected the market. At the end of the day, using my roll over strategy, I walked away with over $12 million dollars. I was 22. I have had other successes since then. With that said, however, I would be remiss were I not to also state that I have also made some bad picks.
Here's the difference, though. Since my 1985 coffee call, regardless of the news or other data, I never purchase more than one or two options, at a price of between $250 to $500 max. I now know, from experience, that I do not need to risk thousands of dollars to make hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars on a commodity that will shoot up or plummet. Millions of people waste that or more on lottery tickets every year. I usually wait for news to come in that could seriously affect a certain market. When I'm wrong, I don't mind losing a few hundred dollars, because every time that I am right the rewards are beyond most people's comprehension.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:45:22 GMT -5
fiscan
Message #38 - 10/09/09 01:02 PM
Thats wild stuff Stay Put.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:47:03 GMT -5
AEKara
Message #39 - 10/09/09 01:12 PM
Trae from having read your posts all this time I have to tell you I don't know anyone more qualified to enter the markets than you. Honest. I have made a lot of money (or should I say paper..) in the market in the past 18 years and its is because I understand a few things most don't (or not willing to), and you my friend have that exact same knowledge plus more. I just follow a simple rule. Never invest just for capital, but for cash flow. Everything else falls on what we have been discussing in terms of monetary policy, greed, stupidity etc.
You don't give yourself enough credit. However one much always invest and take risk within his comfort zone so for that I say well done.
Stay put that is wild. It reminds me of the days where I would purchase 300 calls on PMC Sierra for 5,000 and out of the money and by the end of the week the calls would be worth 250K. Honestly it scared the cra* out of me to be making this type of money, to the point where even though I knew the golden goose was about to die I never once bought one put on the downside of the NAS, especially the QQQs. Talk about inexperience, I could have walked away with the mother load.
But lets not go too far. I feel the same way now. I think we are going to at least retest the lows of March in the next two years. am i ready to risk it? No, not with the FED printing money like its going out of style. I have more than enough and know not to be greedy.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:54:27 GMT -5
traelin0
Message #40 - 10/09/09 02:06 PM
No really, RDT and you know far more about stocks than me. I've read enough of y'all's posts. I can't stomach equities, partially because of the inherent risk in paper, partially because they just don't interest me. I don't know why, they just don't. However, I find it incredibly fascinating to invest in tangible commodities but I don't have the motivation to research it right now. And I am not one to gamble without knowledge.
Well yes the risk factor plays a big part for me as well. Right now I have gone into groundhog mode. You know, jump into your hole at signs of danger, peek your head up and sniff to see if it's gone yet. I will stick my foot back into the waters if I see the Fibonacci retracement play out the way I expect it to. But with all the HFT, I don't know if it will happen yet.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:56:54 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #41 - 10/09/09 02:31 PMStalk and Ear Rots Prevalent in Iowa By Alison Robertson, Department of Plant PathologyThe cool, wet growing season has favored infection and the development of certain corn ear and stalk rots in Iowa. Foliar diseases that occurred earlier in the growing season may have increased the risk of stalk rots in fields. In corn trials across the state, anthracnose and Gibberella stalk rots are common. Ear rots that are being reported across the state include Diplodia, Gibberella and Fusarium. www.agronext.iastate.edu/
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:59:05 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #42 - 10/09/09 03:18 PM
So, the yield amount is useless, if the product is unusable.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:00:58 GMT -5
tj001
Message #43 - 10/09/09 04:10 PM
You go ahead Stay. Buy corn, buy it all. In a way, I hope that you are partially right. I'm more on the farmer's side though. I hope they get the money they deserve long before some broker. And they will, maybe not before but it will be soon.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:01:37 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #44 - 10/09/09 07:41 PM
Water content in corn is still yet another factor. Like I originally said, and Iowa State University seems to be backing me up, the current state of corn is at HIGH RISK and weeks, not months will bear me out.
Oh, I almost forgot. Oil went up today in spite of the "reserves". Now where did I hear that? Oh, that's right, I stated that fact. ;D
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:04:41 GMT -5
fiscan
Message #45 - 10/09/09 11:30 PMAlright Stay Put. Here you go; 
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:07:33 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #46 - 10/10/09 12:45 AM
MMMMMMM. Tastes real good.
fiscan Thank You. Buuuuuuuuuuuuuurp. Excuse me. ;D
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:14:23 GMT -5
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:18:26 GMT -5
fiscan
Message #48 - 10/10/09 09:23 AM
You're welcome Stay. Although it does look kind of stale and crappy to me. Hey, ironically at hockey last night one of the guys said his friend took down all his corn last week. There wasn't any problem with it but we're a long way from Iowa.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:19:36 GMT -5
Steve Goober
Message #49 - 10/10/09 01:30 PM
Stay Put. Thanks for the info the other day on the other thread. I have not played it yet and may not unless I can get a bit more up to speed. If I don't completely understand and feel confident with my knowledge/information base I will wait until I do. Your post #26 is right on. Many other good points of view here as well. I have been getting more active in options on equities successfully, but do not trust any of the so-called markets for various reasons. The manipulation/intervention has undermined any basis in reality and gives little if any "confidence". there are some very good plays if one is reading between the lines. The good part is beating the system at it's own game, now that is fun and rewarding, just don't get carried away and be patient let the plays come to you and then cash in based on your research/knowledge!..Goober
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:20:10 GMT -5
Steve Goober
Message #50 - 10/10/09 01:38 PM
As always, time will tell on Corn and HO. I do agree with you on commodities versus equities and the fact that commodities, especially basic food staples can never become worthless as opposed to equities and other asset classes/vehicles/schemes. So I will get boned up. It is time. My sole purpose is to be able to be any where on the planet with a lap top and make money as I see fit, as much or little as I deem necessary at that time...Goober
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:20:36 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #51 - 10/10/09 04:36 PM
Goober that is the best thing that anyone could do. Don't jump into anything, including Commodities until you have made your first and most expensive investment......time studying the markets.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:21:28 GMT -5
Reformed DayTrader
Message #52 - 10/11/09 09:48 AM
If you take some time to research the performance of Corn and Heating Oil since May of this year and compare that performance to the Initial Public Offering Market (IPO's) you might find it interesting. However, I know past performance is not an indication of future performance but I feel more confident investing in IPO's especially foreign companies in China, Taiwan, and Brazil than I do investing in corn or heating oil.....
Just one man's opinion based on these IPO's issued this year:
< Back to HeadlinesIPO Scorecard: Update On Selected Initial Stock Offerings2:59 pm ET 10/09/2009- Dow Jones
Company Symbol Percent Current Offer Date
Lihua International Inc. LIWA 144% $9.75 $4.00 4-Sep-09
Duoyuan Global Water Inc. DGW 142% $38.67 $16.00 24-Jun-09
SolarWinds Inc. SWI 77% $22.08 $12.50 20-May-09
A123 Systems Inc. AONE 58% $21.39 $13.50 24-Sep-09
Bridgepoint Education Inc. BPI 58% $16.61 $10.50 15-Apr-09
OpenTable Inc OPEN 28% $27.31 $20.00 21-May-09
LogMein Inc. LOGM 25% $20.04 $16.00 1-Jul-09
Education Management EDMC 25% $22.49 $18.00 2-Oct-09
Rosetta Stone Inc. RST 25% $22.48 $18.00 15-Apr-09
DigitalGlobal Inc. DGI 24% $23.59 $19.00 15-May-09
Verisk Analytics Inc. VRSK 22% $26.91 $22.00 7-Oct-09
Medidata Solutions MDSO 14% $16.01 $14.00 25-Jun-09
Talecris Biotherapeutics Hold TLCR 13% $21.49 $19.00 2-Oct-09
Horsehead Holding Corp. ZINC 12% $11.81 $10.50 10-Sep-09
Emdeon Inc. EM 1% $15.69 $15.50 12-Aug-09
Mistra Group MG 1% $12.64 $12.50 7-Oct-09
Colony Financial Inc. CLNY -3% $19.35 $20.00 24-Sep-09
Apollo Commercial RE Fin ARI -9% $18.25 $20.00 24-Sep-09
Vitacost.com Inc. VITC -10% $10.86 $12.00 24-Sep-09
Cumberland Pharma Inc. CPIX -10% $15.31 $17.00 11-Aug-09
Echo Global Logistics ECHO -12% $12.39 $14.00 2-Oct-09
Omeros' Corp OMER -14% $8.59 $10.00 7-Oct-09
Shanda Games Ltd ADS GAME -16% $10.50 $12.50 25-Sep-09
Chemspec International Ltd CPC -22% $7.05 $9.00 24-Jun-09
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:22:56 GMT -5
Value-Buy
Message #53 - 10/12/09 08:48 AM
Looks like the second largest corn crop in history.
Soybeans near or at a record
Heating oil and natural gas being forced higher, due to anticipated demand regardless of record storage.
Like I said, supply and demand is no longer the call. It is billions of dollars with no where to go, except where ever the powers to be, decide.
Very similar to stuffing ten pounds of you no what in a five pound bag. Everyone knows the results. It explodes.
Yes, there is a ton of money to be made, but just like musical chairs, you do not want to be caught standing when the music stops.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:24:04 GMT -5
Value-Buy
Message #54 - 10/12/09 09:24 AM
Energy
Name Last Change High Low Settle Last Change
Light Sweet Crude Oil DEC-2009 74.20 +1.95 74.27 72.50 72.25 10/12 07:09am
Heating Oil DEC-2009 1.94 +0.06 1.92 1.92 1.88 10/12 07:09am
Henry Hub Natural Gas NOV-2009 4.89 +0.12 4.9 4.85 4.77 10/12 07:09am
New York Harbor RBOB (Blendstock) Gasoline NOV-2009 1.81 +0.05 1.82 1.77 1.77 10/12 07:09am
Metals
Name Last Change High Low Settle Last Change
Gold DEC-2009 1,059.10 +10.50 1060.5 1,054.10 1048.6 10/12 07:09am
Silver DEC-2009 17.92 +0.23 17.95 17.83 17.69 10/12 07:09am
Platinum JAN-2010 1,348.00 +8.60 1352.9 1,336.10 1339.4 10/12 07:06am
Copper DEC-2009 2.87 +0.03 2.88 2.84 2.84 10/12 07:09am
Livestock & Meat
Name Last Change High Low Settle Last Change
Live Cattle DEC-2009 85.30 +0.35 85.32 84.85 84.95 10/12 07:09am
Grains & Cereals
Name Last Change High Low Settle Last Change
Corn DEC-2009 362.25 unch 372.5 364.75 362.25 10/09 11:27am
Soybean NOV-2009 964.00 unch 983.25 965.00 964 10/09 11:31am
Wheat DEC-2009 468.00 unch 480 469.25 468 10/09 11:22am
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:26:44 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #55 - 10/12/09 09:40 AM
Value, I addressed this earlier, and even supplied data from Iowa State University. 1. Ear Rot and Stalk Rot are prevalent across the state of Iowa. Other corn belt states data not as detailed. 2. Excessively wet growing season has caused above average water content in corn across the entire corn belt. 3. Weather caused corn to be grown late in the season, which means dent maturity also took place, and is taking place, much later in the year. 4. This weekends freeze has IN FACT been reported today as having placed the entire northern corn belt at HIGH RISK of total damage, and the southern corn belt at severe levels.
The final analysis, people. If up to half of the corn crops proves to be worthless, it really doesn't matter what the yield numbers are. For the lay person, imagine you having ten ears of corn. Five of those ears are poisoned by rot, etc., and cannot be consumed by people or animals, nor used for ethanol, or corn syrup companies, etc.. The other five ears are beyond the water content, to make it unusable for much much longer while it dries out. Through all of these facts, you still have people shouting from the roof tops that, "we have ten ears of corn, and were only expecting eight." When all of the facts come out about the actual condition of the corn yield, watch corn skyrocket in price.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:27:12 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #56 - 10/12/09 09:43 AM
Your corn numbers do not reflect today. opened over "+9". If you are going to quote numbers, try as hard as you can to be up to date.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:27:38 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #57 - 10/12/09 09:59 AM
Heating oil is up again too.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:28:27 GMT -5
Reformed DayTrader
Message #58 - 10/12/09 10:07 AM
Corn DEC-2009 371.50 +9.25 373.75 371.50 362.25 10/12 07:55am
Heating Oil DEC-2009 1.93 +0.05 1.94 1.92 1.88 10/12 07:59am
Yea C'mon VB please try to be more up to date in the future but even the best of the best are not always up to speed on Commodity Prices ... So for those who want to follow Stay Put's advice to invest in these two commodities, go for it and good luck to you...you will need it.. But as for me, I will pass on Corn and Heating Oil.....commodity investing is just not my thing...
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:28:57 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #59 - 10/12/09 10:20 AM
Anyone can get their up to date prices on CME. Monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, 30 min, .... BTW corn is up by over 10 now, and climbing.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:31:50 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #60 - 10/12/09 01:06 PM
Up to 20.6 and still moving ;D
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 20:34:01 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #61 - 10/12/09 01:34 PM
Could this and other factual data be part of the reason corn is skyrocketing today? The nay sayers did say time will tell. ;D
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