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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 18:36:26 GMT -5
Readers please take note: This thread is a copy of Stay Put's old "Corn and heating oil. Best investments over the next several weeks, if you get in now." This thread, and others, were so entertaining that I felt it necessary to repost them, so they wouldn't be lost forever. Please also note the timestamps for the posts. Any missing messages in the sequence which are not posted were deleted in the original thread.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 18:38:52 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #1 - 10/07/09 01:48 PM
I do not want to keep this information to myself, as I do truly believe that the stock market is primed for a total collapse, and this information could at least put a few hundred thousand dollars in anyone's pocket. That money could mean the difference of being able to feed your family or not in the coming months and years.
As some know, due to weather conditions, corn was planted late in the season, and a recent disclosure of a pending frost, this coming weekend, over the corn belts will see prices skyrocket, as a frost will now threaten as much as 50% of the corn yield.
Unlike stocks, Commodities are a supply and demand market, and also (unlike stocks) can never go out of business leaving the suckers holding worthless paper.
Things that have a direct effect on commodities; freeze, flood, drought, disease, wars can see the investor realizing substantial profits of literally hundreds of thousands of dollars in a matter of a couple of weeks to a couple of months, having started out with a call option as little as $250 to $500. This is not the speculators, or day traders, but the average person investing solely in commodities options when an event actually takes place.
Now, in the fall and winter months a common denominator takes place the world over. It gets cold. When it gets cold, people the world over do the same thing. They turn their heat on. The demand for the energies go through the roof, and the prices ALWAYS follow. The historical charts Prove me on this point. You can waste your time listening to the analysis's going on about the amount of reserves on hand, before the demand and prices take off, and then listen to them after the fact trying to explain the jump in prices, but putting aside those verbose individuals, you will see that it all goes back to supply and demand. When the demand goes up and the supply remains the same, the prices go up. When the supply is decreased and the demand remains the same, the prices go up. Again, every fall and winter, the price of energies (heating oil, NG, crude, etc) have always gone up.
Commodities almost always move in an EKG pattern as opposed to a single spike up or down. So, instead of a commodity moving just straight up on some bad news, it will usually go up; drop a little, and then spike up or down, depending on the news. News of overproduction in a commodity works in the same manner, only on the downward side. In that case, you would make money with a put option.
One December Corn call option, and one December HO call option, are my only recommendations at this time, and will guarantee the investor a profit that could help sustain their families for the coming months/years.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 18:39:42 GMT -5
Duffminster
Message #2 - 10/07/09 02:11 PM
Can I invest in these commodities through my Roth's via ETF or index fund of some sort?
Thanks Stay Put.
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Value Buy
Senior Associate
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Post by Value Buy on Dec 20, 2010 18:40:09 GMT -5
And I thought this thread would simply fade away........
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 18:40:12 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #3 - 10/07/09 02:32 PM
Duffminister, I would personally suggest that for anyone interested in jumping on the these two opportunities that I listed, they sign up with a truly reputable brokerage house. Yes, there are many avenues for a person to purchase call or put options in commodities. I personally use RJ O'Brian, who have been around since dirt, but other houses exist. People with a limited budget like RJ O'Brian because they have the lowest cash requirement to open an account, and they offer everything from unassisted online purchases to full service accounts.
The main thing to remember, is to get in when it makes the move opposite your direction. Remember, it is like an EKG. It will go up; then drop some, and then spike back up. It does the same thing on downward moves. It will go down, come back up a little, and then plummet.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 18:40:55 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #4 - 10/07/09 03:00 PM
Most people can both inquire and open their new account in the same day.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 18:41:41 GMT -5
Value-Buy
Message #5 - 10/07/09 03:03 PM
It is too late for the frost to hurt the corn crops in most of the country. The corn is starting the indentation process, and stalks are drying up.
Look for large yields per acre this year. Same for soybeans.
We do not have to worry about corn being syphoned off for ethanol production like last year, with low oil and gasoline commodity prices.
Heating oil is a hard call. Prices are so low as to previous years, but with demand kicking in, the professionals will raise the price on the commodity markets. Should be able to make some money there and in natural gas.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 18:42:07 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #6 - 10/07/09 03:20 PM
The Corn market turned into a rally leader among the grains, on the 5th, after forecasts pointed to a likely freeze into the weekend and possibly through next week. Funds were strong buyers in corn and traders said that the "lateness" of the corn crop relative to soybeans added to the urgency of buying in corn. One analyst noted that this is still likely to leave the maturity rate a much lower levels than expected, where the freeze is expected to hit.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 18:45:32 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #7 - 10/07/09 03:31 PM
Value, the best part about my corn call, is that we will see who is right over the course of the next week and a half.....not months. Also, the historical charts PROVE my pick on heating oil. You just couldn't bring yourself to come right out and say so.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 18:48:18 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #9 - 10/07/09 05:44 PMActually stay warm everybody if the map prevails,and don't forget about those without heat. Attachments:
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 18:49:56 GMT -5
Value-Buy
Message #10 - 10/07/09 10:11 PM
The problem with commodities right now, is the same as last year. The hedge funds flood millions of dollars into the group, inflating the values.
The true value of a commodity is inflated, but I guess the "value" is in the amount an invester is welling to pay.
Heating oil prices rising in October is not a really strong call imo.
When was the last year heating oil did not rise in October? In any other year the price rise would have started before or by Labor Day, but due the poor economy it did not happen this year. Natural gas is still under $5 for the current contract, and it has been years since it has been this cheap by October. Our local utility just announced the heating season will cost most of their customers 33% less than last year if you heat by Natural gas, so it is still possible to see a 30 to 40 percent increase in gas futures by December if temperatures are low in October and December.
Give a hedge fund an inch, and they take two miles.......the law of supply and demand do not work any longer.
Just call me Value Buy
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 18:51:46 GMT -5
fiscan
Message #11 - 10/07/09 10:19 PM
Great! I was wondering what I should call you.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 18:53:08 GMT -5
tj001
Message #12 - 10/07/09 10:21 PM
Oh Stay. You're either niave or a giant lier. Corn is about to see the biggest drop in prices it's seen in decades. These farms in Iowa have record crop sizes, and because of that they are going to get screwed this harvest year.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 18:55:28 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #13 - 10/07/09 11:25 PM
Supply and demand is the core essence of the commodities markets. Where in the world did you get your information about commodities from.
Funny, I thoroughly explained this fact months ago, in full detail, and now you are Monday morning quarterbacking, but on a completely failed premise. Again, the market will prove me accurate and you the sound bite king.
tj, I am neither. The corn belt is not in just one state, you moron. Try learning how to spell before castigate anyone. Call me a liar again, and I'll slap the taste right out of your mouth.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:01:28 GMT -5
tj001
Message #14 - 10/07/09 11:30 PM
This record crop was not just for corn in Iowa. Thanks to our record low, yet consistent, solar output during the sunspot cycle, corn, soybeans, wheat, and plethora of other crops have had record yields.
Any time your feeling froggy, Lier, hop on over to my lillypad.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:03:41 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #15 - 10/07/09 11:44 PM
Other crops, yes. Corn, NO. You're trying to push Iowa off of the rest of the corn belt, and both the official weather report that stated corn was/is in fact in danger from the forecasted freeze, plus the surge in corn prices (started on the 5th) proves you wrong.
Don't go barking like a big dog and peeing like a puppy. If you want to make a challenge save up your welfare check and take a bus. I'm sure that your trailer will be just fine until you get back.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:04:37 GMT -5
tj001
Message #16 - 10/08/09 12:06 AM
You're right. Put all your money into corn.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:05:45 GMT -5
Reformed DayTrader
Message #17 - 10/08/09 07:48 AM
If we are going to see a stock market collapse this month and another Deep Depression worse than the one in the 30's; why would anyone want to invest in Corn and Heating Oil since the Commodities Markets are also going to have a meltdown if this so called Doomsday Scenario plays out ?? Isn't this just a bit inconsistent or is it a lot of nonsense again?? How can the Dow and NASDAQ meltdown and not have a negative impact on Commodities or Commodity Trading at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange??
BTW anyone who uses this message board for investment advice does so at their own peril since most of the advice is not credible or just a lot of nonsense..
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:11:30 GMT -5
oots
Message #18 - 10/08/09 10:09 AM
Agreed RDT. I have been trading the grain and meat markets for 30 years. In all likelihood this is a bull trap in corn, Heating oil is not my expertise, but that one is like tossing a coin. If we an early cold late fall and early winter, heating oil will do fine, but if not your call will expire worthless.
Facts: Corn crop is behind due to late planting. Frost @ October 10 is normal, some damage will be done to the crop BUT yields are record this year. Harvest time is the weakest time of the year for cash corn and also futures. Look to sell Dec 09 corn between 370 to 375 with a minimal objective of 325. Weekly exports this morning were the weakest in many months. The grains and meats are subject to outside markets especially over the last 1 1/2 years. Stock market goes down, so will the grains and meats. The only way the grains will go higher in the near term is if the U.S. dollar really jolts to the downside thus the PERCEPTION of stronger exports down the road. Buying calls in corn has a probability of losing money in this scenario at about 80 to 90 %. Buying Corn calls is a poor trade. Heating oil calls are iffy at best. STAY CLEAR IF YOU ARE NOT FAMILIAR WITH THIS TYPE OF TRADING.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:13:13 GMT -5
fiscan
Message #19 - 10/08/09 10:21 AM
I do like green giant niblets, firm and sweet. My buddy though has always liked cream corn. That is the worst slop I've ever tasted.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:13:48 GMT -5
cedaredge
Message #20 - 10/08/09 10:24 AM
I chipped a tooth on cream corn ;D
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:15:07 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #24 - 10/08/09 06:10 PMAnd the corn market keeps going up and up. I guess that I was wrong. 
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:16:12 GMT -5
RogerB34
Message #25 - 10/08/09 07:38 PM
Gamble in Las Vegas and get some fun while losing your shirt.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:16:55 GMT -5
Stay Put
Message #26 - 10/08/09 08:51 PM
Commodity options, like anything in life, can be a gamble. Following simple rules in the commodities market, however, is as close as you get to the "sure thing". Not everyone has the fortitude for commodities, stocks, real estate, or any other investment. Many people will tell you that real estate is one of the worst investments going, and this could not be further from the truth. Countless others will tell you that it is the absolute best place to put your money. So what is it that separates those two groups?...............Knowledge.
Knowledge is what separates the true Investor from the gambler. The losers in this country are the ones who, without any facts, constantly bad mouth something they know little to nothing about. The Losers go through life too lazy to learn, and too angry to succeed in anything substantial. There everywhere. Many are on this board.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:17:36 GMT -5
fiscan
Message #27 - 10/08/09 09:38 PM
Stay Put my friend, I think you're getting killed with this corn crap. That oots guy sounds like he really knows what he's talking about.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:18:16 GMT -5
traelin0
Message #28 - 10/08/09 09:53 PM
Jeez, the more I read, the more I realize how little I know. I could spend a full year researching commodities (which do interest me), but then I would slack off on all the other stuff that interests me.
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Post by reformeddaytrader on Dec 20, 2010 19:18:29 GMT -5
I think in order to be a successful commodities trader you have to be:
1. knowledgeable of the commodities markets
2. lucky
3. megabucks
4 risk adverse
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:18:39 GMT -5
fiscan
Message #29 - 10/08/09 10:03 PM
Yeah, the line about perceived increased exports when the dollar goes down was really interesting. Its all about thinking ahead. When a certain event occurs now, what is the likely outcome 3 months from now. Sounds easy but so many other factors could throw it all out of wack.
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:19:40 GMT -5
tj001
Message #30 - 10/08/09 11:46 PM
Factors like a recession and declining dollar? Or factors like record yields? Factors like a frost which have nil affect on field corn, unlike soybeans? Or factors like swine flu, which have decreased world demand for hog feed?
What factors could there possibly be?
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Post by traelin0 on Dec 20, 2010 19:20:20 GMT -5
tj001
Message #31 - 10/08/09 11:53 PM
Let's not forget about all of the other meats that people can't afford this year. Cows eat a lot of corn also. Not as many people buying t-bone steaks and ribeyes this year.
Anybody else have a factor in mind?
Oooo. I've got one... organic foods propaganda. Not much organic field corn nowadays, and not many organic hogs or cattle fed corn. Hmmm? I'm sure there are more factors.
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