chiver78
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Post by chiver78 on Nov 5, 2022 21:42:18 GMT -5
I think there is danger ahead, but I am not yet convinced we are screwed. The outcome matters, and you have outlined the worst case scenario. There is another one where the results are mixed, and we muddle along for a while. The repubs try to do some things, and the courts repudiate them, or they do some really egregious things(like make dramatic changes to medicare) where the swing voters turn against them and they really lose. I may be too optimistic, but I do not think we are there yet. A few more elections, and we may be. Then I will live in my blue bubble, hope they really slash tax rates, and wait to see what the Red states do to compensate. Maybe people will then vote with their feet. Or the country implodes, splits into 4-5 different countries, and we live with China being the dominant power in the world. I hopefully will be too senile or dead to see what becomes of that scenario. I'm also safely in my blue bubble, while being disgusted by what I see outside the borders of my Commonwealth. I have the luxury of dual citizenship, and feel like I need to refresh my memory on what exactly is involved in moving north as far as taxes go. I had actually looked into it in 2004 when I first felt like things were going off the rails. little did I know....
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busymom
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Post by busymom on Nov 5, 2022 22:23:40 GMT -5
We live in what I used to consider a "safe" blue state. I'm not as confident this election, both by the polling numbers, and how my conservative friends are willing to vote, in spite of the crazy in some of our candidates. How'd you like to have a candidate for attorney general who has been very open about being an election denier, who claims she won't necessarily agree with the results of the election? I don't know why the Republicans are willing to go along with so much crazy in their ranks, but here we are...
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2022 22:31:31 GMT -5
i read a rather lengthy article on this subject last night. it had a lot of historical stuff in it. written by a 70+ year old poly sci professor. it is a brilliant read. if i find it, i will post it HERE.
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teen persuasion
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Post by teen persuasion on Nov 5, 2022 22:44:26 GMT -5
Yeah, I thought I was pretty safely in a Blue state (if in a heavily red region, but Downstate really tips the scales). But Zeldin is looking much stronger than he should for governor - a good bit is linking Hochul to Cuomo, but still. An election denier, zero abortion, zero gun restrictions candidate IN NY?
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NastyWoman
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Post by NastyWoman on Nov 5, 2022 22:53:21 GMT -5
I would love to say you are wrong but I don't think you are. The US will be a new chapter in "How empires fail" in the not too far off future...and it makes me more than just a little bit sad.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2022 23:14:24 GMT -5
i couldn't resist. i broke down and looked at the polling. and surprisingly....i am not depressed. i think i might make a post on the elections board, actually. there is some good stuff i am seeing for Democrats. now, it might just be flukes, but it LOOKS LIKE the bleeding stopped sometime around October 23rd in most places. there are a few key races that have gotten worse for Democrats since then, but there is improvement elsewhere. i will talk about it later. maybe eat some dinner first.
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toomuchreality
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Post by toomuchreality on Nov 6, 2022 1:24:17 GMT -5
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 6, 2022 8:14:28 GMT -5
I know I persist in being too optimistic, but here is what I think.
The GOP is running on an inflation platform. Inflation is a global issue driven by things outside of our control. Many countries are experiencing inflation at higher levels than we are. GOP won’t be able to quickly ‘fix’ inflation. Instead, they will occupy themselves with petty things - investigating Biden, both Joe and Hunter. Trying to impeach Biden. Trying to impeach Garland. Trying to defund the DOJ. Trying to convict Covid scientists for terrorism. They have no platform, but the legislation they do try to pass will be based on trying to strip the rights from gays and trans people, make it harder to vote (in the guise of protecting elections) and making abortions impossible to get. They’ll have an infinite number of congressional hearings where they can make thunderous speeches so they can get their faces in front of the camera. Nothing will get done at all.
Meanwhile, Trump is going to declare his bid for the presidency the Monday after Election Day. In 2016, he was the TV personality who was going to drain the swamp in Washington. In 2020, people realized he was pretty damn swampy himself. In 2024, a lot of Trump supporters (like my MIL and SIL) have decided while they love Trump and are eternally gratefully to him for saving us from Covid excesses, he just has too much drama around him - and they’ll go for DeSantis. Trump, who is never a graceful loser, torches the earth trying to fight DeSantis (he already has a nickname for him, Sanctimonious DeSantis). Trump declares his primary loses ‘fixed’ votes and sues everyone to get them over turned. It will be two years of abject misery.
By 2024, DeSantis will be the GOP candidate, but Trump, unable to accept defeat yet again, forms his own MAGA party and splits the GOP vote. The 2024 election is pure chaos, but the draconian measures against gays, trans and abortions will finally motivate younger voters to come out in force, and the MAGA party will finally be defeated for good.
Call me crazy, I know.
Either way, the next two years will be a fucking nightmare for the country.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Nov 6, 2022 8:44:39 GMT -5
I like happy’s theory - seems very plausible.
I don’t have a decent optimistic point of view, but did find out that my very conservative, Fox News watching, Trump voter MIL voted for Katie Hobbs for Gov because Kari Lake was too crazy. That was surprising. My husband has discovered that nothing makes our faithful family members more uncomfortable than calling Trump the head of the American Christian faith - so he does it whenever he can.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 6, 2022 8:53:42 GMT -5
I like happy’s theory - seems very plausible. I don’t have a decent optimistic point of view, but did find out that my very conservative, Fox News watching, Trump voter MIL voted for Katie Hobbs for Gov because Kari Lake was too crazy. That was surprising. My husband has discovered that nothing makes our faithful family members more uncomfortable than calling Trump the head of the American Christian faith - so he does it whenever he can. Yes. I live in a very conservative area, and most of them say Trump draws to much negative attention to himself that they want a different candidate. DeSantis is an ass, but I don’t think he’d be the nuclear threat to Democracy Trump is.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Nov 6, 2022 9:18:08 GMT -5
DeSantis is a more competent politician, but he is less dangerous because I do not think he gets the same crazed devotion that Trump does. The devotion to Trump is hard to understand.
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Post by Opti on Nov 6, 2022 11:25:05 GMT -5
DeSantis is a more competent politician, but he is less dangerous because I do not think he gets the same crazed devotion that Trump does. The devotion to Trump is hard to understand. Since we don't worship rich authoritarians who pretend to be strong, we will never get it the way people who are wired that way. My mom taught me to understand that people in charge are just people in charge. They are not necessarily better than you in any way. Many of these folks worship money and the prosperity gospel actually believing rich means blessed by God. Apparently always forgetting the phrase from the bible, that it is harder for a rich man to enter heaven than a camel getting thru the eye of a needle.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 6, 2022 11:56:22 GMT -5
DeSantis is a more competent politician, but he is less dangerous because I do not think he gets the same crazed devotion that Trump does. The devotion to Trump is hard to understand. i have long felt that DeSantis is MORE dangerous. but thinking about it today, i am doubting that. edit: it is November 6th, and i wanted to add to this. i can't imagine DeSantis doing HALF what Trump did. he may have the same "ideas" about governing, but he doesn't have the same ideas about subverting the constitution to keep himself in power, imo. i might be wrong. it would be dreadful if i were. but then again, he has only an AVERAGE chance of winning in 2024, imo. his odds are probably slightly BETTER than that of beating Trump in the primary. there is some optimism, for you.
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busymom
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Post by busymom on Nov 6, 2022 13:01:31 GMT -5
DeSantis is a more competent politician, but he is less dangerous because I do not think he gets the same crazed devotion that Trump does. The devotion to Trump is hard to understand. i have long felt that DeSantis is MORE dangerous. but thinking about it today, i am doubting that. The problem is, DeSantis is SMARTER than Trump, so he could definitely do more damage in following the current GOP ideology.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Nov 6, 2022 13:15:13 GMT -5
True, but I do not think he is as craven as Trump, as narcissistic, and he does understand the limits of government. He may try to go around them, but I think he is less dangerous to democracy. Maybe he will be more effective in executing policy, but there are limits due to separation of power.
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Post by Opti on Nov 6, 2022 13:27:31 GMT -5
i have long felt that DeSantis is MORE dangerous. but thinking about it today, i am doubting that. The problem is, DeSantis is SMARTER than Trump, so he could definitely do more damage in following the current GOP ideology. Maybe, but I don't think so. Many things happened during Trump's term that are unlikely to happen with a seasoned politician. DeSantis isn't going to be taken in by Ginni Thomas and similar and go off doing witch hunts in his staff because he is insecure and assumes many are against him. DeSantis also won't be gatekeeping initiatives that are other's pet projects. Omaraso did some good things with black colleges, but it had no place in Trump's overall strategy except to get black votes. If DeSantis became the nominee I think he'd be more focused on what he wants and less on sucking up to certain elements to stay in power. MO. Trump loves the Proud Boys because he loves their votes. I don't see DeSantis spending big taxpayer money either just to get the feels that a rally or other large public event brings.
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busymom
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Post by busymom on Nov 6, 2022 13:58:32 GMT -5
The problem is, DeSantis is SMARTER than Trump, so he could definitely do more damage in following the current GOP ideology. Maybe, but I don't think so. Many things happened during Trump's term that are unlikely to happen with a seasoned politician. DeSantis isn't going to be taken in by Ginni Thomas and similar and go off doing witch hunts in his staff because he is insecure and assumes many are against him. DeSantis also won't be gatekeeping initiatives that are other's pet projects. Omaraso did some good things with black colleges, but it had no place in Trump's overall strategy except to get black votes. If DeSantis became the nominee I think he'd be more focused on what he wants and less on sucking up to certain elements to stay in power. MO. Trump loves the Proud Boys because he loves their votes. I don't see DeSantis spending big taxpayer money either just to get the feels that a rally or other large public event brings. I wish I had your optimism, but having lived in Florida, I don't. DeSantis DOES kiss up to big business (except for Disney when they ticked him off). Also, this is the guy that was shipping immigrants to other states on the taxpayer dime, so no, I don't have faith that he's a "better" candidate.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 6, 2022 14:08:48 GMT -5
The problem is, DeSantis is SMARTER than Trump, so he could definitely do more damage in following the current GOP ideology. Maybe, but I don't think so. Many things happened during Trump's term that are unlikely to happen with a seasoned politician. DeSantis isn't going to be taken in by Ginni Thomas and similar and go off doing witch hunts in his staff because he is insecure and assumes many are against him. DeSantis also won't be gatekeeping initiatives that are other's pet projects. Omaraso did some good things with black colleges, but it had no place in Trump's overall strategy except to get black votes. If DeSantis became the nominee I think he'd be more focused on what he wants and less on sucking up to certain elements to stay in power. MO. Trump loves the Proud Boys because he loves their votes. I don't see DeSantis spending big taxpayer money either just to get the feels that a rally or other large public event brings. true. but he also loves them for their LOYALTY. that they would LAY DOWN AND DIE FOR HIM.
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Nov 6, 2022 14:12:22 GMT -5
please tell me i am wrong.
i want to be told that my fears are baseless and that everything will be fine.here is what i expect to happen next week: the GOP will win several state legislatures and ram through reforms that basically end democracy in those states. that will make the next presidential election very difficult for Democrats to win, if not impossible. it will only get MORE difficult after 2024. in addition, the GOP will tie up many many contests in dispute. they will also run roughshod over the House and get a bunch of crazy ass conspiracy trials, which will help solidify their support, and make a case for unfair elections. the entire country will be put on pause for 2 years while we wait for the NEXT crisis. Trump will run for and probably win the GOP nomination. if he does, we can expect 2024 to be 1000x worse than 2020. this ruinous alliance of grifters and the far right is beyond dangerous to the Republic. it is fatal, imo. I agree with you. I'm a foreign observer and you're circling the drain. The Talibangelists and the QAnon batshit brigade are winning. It's 10 pounds of crazy in a 5 pound bag, and it's started to leak out into my country, too.
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 6, 2022 14:18:36 GMT -5
Maybe, but I don't think so. Many things happened during Trump's term that are unlikely to happen with a seasoned politician. DeSantis isn't going to be taken in by Ginni Thomas and similar and go off doing witch hunts in his staff because he is insecure and assumes many are against him. DeSantis also won't be gatekeeping initiatives that are other's pet projects. Omaraso did some good things with black colleges, but it had no place in Trump's overall strategy except to get black votes. If DeSantis became the nominee I think he'd be more focused on what he wants and less on sucking up to certain elements to stay in power. MO. Trump loves the Proud Boys because he loves their votes. I don't see DeSantis spending big taxpayer money either just to get the feels that a rally or other large public event brings. I wish I had your optimism, but having lived in Florida, I don't. DeSantis DOES kiss up to big business (except for Disney when they ticked him off). Also, this is the guy that was shipping immigrants to other states on the taxpayer dime, so no, I don't have faith that he's a "better" candidate. I don't know much about DeSantis. So setting an incredibly low bar for "better candidate": If he were to be nominated and lose, would he call for an assault on the Capitol?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 6, 2022 14:49:48 GMT -5
I wish I had your optimism, but having lived in Florida, I don't. DeSantis DOES kiss up to big business (except for Disney when they ticked him off). Also, this is the guy that was shipping immigrants to other states on the taxpayer dime, so no, I don't have faith that he's a "better" candidate. I don't know much about DeSantis. So setting an incredibly low bar for "better candidate": If he were to be nominated and lose, would he call for an assault on the Capitol? probably not. but only based on my minimal knowledge of him. he is a grumpy fucker, but he doesn't appear to have quite the same fascistic inclinations.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 6, 2022 14:59:02 GMT -5
please tell me i am wrong.
i want to be told that my fears are baseless and that everything will be fine.here is what i expect to happen next week: the GOP will win several state legislatures and ram through reforms that basically end democracy in those states. that will make the next presidential election very difficult for Democrats to win, if not impossible. it will only get MORE difficult after 2024. in addition, the GOP will tie up many many contests in dispute. they will also run roughshod over the House and get a bunch of crazy ass conspiracy trials, which will help solidify their support, and make a case for unfair elections. the entire country will be put on pause for 2 years while we wait for the NEXT crisis. Trump will run for and probably win the GOP nomination. if he does, we can expect 2024 to be 1000x worse than 2020. this ruinous alliance of grifters and the far right is beyond dangerous to the Republic. it is fatal, imo. I agree with you. I'm a foreign observer and you're circling the drain. The Talibangelists and the QAnon batshit brigade are winning. It's 10 pounds of crazy in a 5 pound bag, and it's started to leak out into my country, too. jooc- how well covered is the HORROR of what is going on down here? ie- are you guys watching the unfolding of the neo-fascist anti-election slate in AZ?
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Nov 6, 2022 14:59:36 GMT -5
Trump is literally one of the worst individuals on the face of the planet. Better than him is almost a given when talking about anyone else.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 6, 2022 15:02:41 GMT -5
Trump is literally one of the worst individuals on the face of the planet. Better than him is almost a given when talking about anyone else. yeah. the more unfolds about his presidency, the more loathsome i find him. and he was already sort of slug level for me. i am nearly to the tallguy perspective at this juncture. that (on the whole) he is the worst candidate for public office in US history.
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Nov 6, 2022 15:10:27 GMT -5
Yeah, I thought I was pretty safely in a Blue state (if in a heavily red region, but Downstate really tips the scales). But Zeldin is looking much stronger than he should for governor - a good bit is linking Hochul to Cuomo, but still. An election denier, zero abortion, zero gun restrictions candidate IN NY? I also live in a red area of a very blue state and Zeldin is huge here.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Nov 6, 2022 15:45:54 GMT -5
Trump is literally one of the worst individuals on the face of the planet. Better than him is almost a given when talking about anyone else. yeah. the more unfolds about his presidency, the more loathsome i find him. and he was already sort of slug level for me. i am nearly to the tallguy perspective at this juncture. that (on the whole) he is the worst candidate for public office in US history.If you want to be precise I have never quite said that, but only because my knowledge of pre-Civil War and minor (or extinct) party candidates does not extend well enough to do that and because "any office" covers a lot of people that I will have never heard of. What I HAVE said on more than one occasion is: 1. Donald Trump is the biggest liar in American political history. 2. Donald Trump is the worst major-party candidate put forth at least since the Civil War, and maybe in this country's history. 3. Donald Trump is the worst president in this country's history. 4. Donald Trump is the worst person ever elected to the presidency in this country's history, and may be the worst person elected to any office anywhere. 5. Donald Trump may in fact be the single most fundamentally dishonest and corrupt person in the country today in any field. 6. If we were to guess that there are 150 million people in this country who are constitutionally eligible to be president, Donald Trump may be in the top 149 million, but I wouldn't bet on it. The average mental patient would be less damaging to the country. Donald Trump is not an intelligent man. That deficiency is compounded by a stunning lack of intellectual curiosity and rigor. He is utterly soulless, and possesses nothing even remotely resembling a moral center. His only interest and priority is himself: His ego, his wealth, his power, and his grievance. He does have the gift of being a world-class con man, however. When you combine all of that with his tremendous narcissism that will not allow him to think that anyone knows anything that he doesn't, that nobody will be able to hold him accountable, or that there is no idea (read: lie) that he cannot sell, his corruption is magnified to a level that those of us alive today may have never before seen. And as long as there are enough willing idiots to support him, and enough corrupt enablers to allow him....
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 6, 2022 15:59:48 GMT -5
tallguy- are you familiar with the term "solipsism"? the poly sci guy whose article i read two nights ago described the GOP as a party populated by "malignant solipsism". i think that is quite accurate. they don't listen to anyone because they kind of fundamentally think that nobody exists at worst, or is of any importance, at best.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 6, 2022 16:01:22 GMT -5
PS- i forgot your "Civil War caveat". my apologies. and i agree with that. he is the worst candidate for president since (at least) the Civil War.
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Post by weltschmerz on Nov 6, 2022 16:17:10 GMT -5
I agree with you. I'm a foreign observer and you're circling the drain. The Talibangelists and the QAnon batshit brigade are winning. It's 10 pounds of crazy in a 5 pound bag, and it's started to leak out into my country, too. jooc- how well covered is the HORROR of what is going on down here? ie- are you guys watching the unfolding of the neo-fascist anti-election slate in AZ? It's covered very well. We're watching with morbid interest. What happens in the US usually affects Canada.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Nov 6, 2022 16:28:15 GMT -5
tallguy - are you familiar with the term "solipsism"? the poly sci guy whose article i read two nights ago described the GOP as a party populated by "malignant solipsism". i think that is quite accurate. they don't listen to anyone because they kind of fundamentally think that nobody exists at worst, or is of any importance, at best. Yeah, I think the case can be made. The GOP has in the last few decades ceased being a party of conservative thinkers and has now become a mob of radical denialists. They absolutely do not consider anyone or anything else to be of any importance, and will even throw away their own beliefs when they become inconvenient in pursuit of current ends. Really calls into question exactly what their true "beliefs" are, and whether there is or has ever been any commitment behind the lip service.
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