djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 23, 2017 15:03:21 GMT -5
fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrats-wave-could-turn-into-a-flood/the generic ballot was +18D the day after the tax bill. the GOP is counting on several things: 1) their tax-cut and borrow agenda will resonate with Reagan Democrats 2) as time goes on, this bill will be viewed as wildly popular among Independents 3) this is the first of many successes that will lead to ballot success in 2018 i think this is all wrong for a variety of reasons. but rather than giving you the temperature, why doesn't everyone here tell me why i am right (or wrong)? note: i have noted that the political divide is very strong on this, so i am especially interested in hearing from the INDEPENDENTS on this board (those that have no political affiliation)
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 23, 2017 15:11:19 GMT -5
oh. and Merry Christmas to everyone who celebrates that holiday, out there.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 23, 2017 15:15:46 GMT -5
i don't think history stopped because of Trump. but thanks for the reality check.
if everything is indeed different than it has been for the last 80 years, you might be right.
there is at least one thing that is wildly different: Gerrymandering nationwide has never been worse for Democrats. that is, indeed, a very powerful STRUCTURAL disadvantage. however, i am pretty sure Nate Silver took that into account in the analysis above. he is thinking 24 seats should be easy, and it could be as many as 58. he is rarely wrong.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2017 15:17:20 GMT -5
Obama’s didn’t (get much tailwind from a good economy) either. Id guess most of the same people who were or were not benefitting are now as well...
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 23, 2017 15:18:06 GMT -5
I find it interesting that Trump isn't getting much of a tailwind from the good economy. nobody asked for my opinion on this, but i will offer it anyway. i think he would be completely OUT of the game without the economy. and when it inevitably turns, he WILL be out. even the GOP will turn on him. and yeah, that sounded a lot like a prediction, and it is. i would say there is a 75% chance of a recession before Trump leaves office, and it will fall on him like a sack of cement.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 23, 2017 15:43:34 GMT -5
I think Obama didn't get much credit because the recovery was painfully slow and unbalanced. I also think he came in on such a wave of unfairly high expectations that it was inevitable he would disappoint. the opposite is true of the current administration. most people expect it to do poorly, some like me think it is DESIGNED to fail- and to do so spectacularly. so, if he has even MINOR successes, he will get a lot of cred for it. but just like Obama didn't get blamed for what happened in 2009, our titular leader won't get blamed for 2017. 2018 is another matter, however.
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pooks
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Post by pooks on Dec 23, 2017 15:57:00 GMT -5
By Nov 2018, I think the tax bill will be old news. The economy will only help the R's, if it is helping regular people. Not the stock market is up, or profits are up, but actual wages.
I think the D's take the house, even with gerrymandering. The party in power almost always loses seats and I can't think of anything short of a catastrophic event uniting the country around Trump.
The best the R's can hope for is that Trump is quiet. They don't get primaried by crazies. And the economy is great.
The D's need to stay out of their own way. Pick candidates that are right for their district and not lurch too far to the left.
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ken a.k.a OMK
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Post by ken a.k.a OMK on Dec 23, 2017 16:01:02 GMT -5
Not with his ego. He will bring them down.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 23, 2017 16:07:24 GMT -5
Not with his ego. He will bring them down. i didn't take that as an expression of optimism, ken.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Dec 23, 2017 16:53:29 GMT -5
i don't think history stopped because of Trump. but thanks for the reality check. if everything is indeed different than it has been for the last 80 years, you might be right. there is at least one thing that is wildly different: Gerrymandering nationwide has never been worse for Democrats. that is, indeed, a very powerful STRUCTURAL disadvantage. however, i am pretty sure Nate Silver took that into account in the analysis above. he is thinking 24 seats should be easy, and it could be as many as 58. he is rarely wrong. The fact that the generic ballot spread is so high is major. 2018 and 2020 will be huge because of redistricting after the new census. It is still shocking to me that only 12 states leave the process of redistricting to an independent or bipartisan commission. It should be job one for the rest of the state legislatures to fix that. It won't, because they are addicted to power, not fairness.
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kadee79
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Post by kadee79 on Dec 23, 2017 17:00:58 GMT -5
Since DT has plans to campaign a LOT in 2018....maybe the higher number will be the winner when the votes are all counted.
And Merry Christmas to you too & everyone else.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Dec 23, 2017 17:10:53 GMT -5
Republicans Should Be S(*tscared....But They Aren't Don't worry! They only care about "real american!" votes. I'm not one, they told me so themselves. I'm not a real american because: I was a single mother. I'm vegan. I live in a large city. I live in a blue state. I'm highly educated. I have taught graduate-level coursework. So - they don't want my votes. Not to worry, they will never get it again. it's a win-win. We neither of us want the other. In 2018 - could spell win-win-win.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Dec 23, 2017 17:12:18 GMT -5
oh. and Merry Christmas to everyone who celebrates that holiday, out there. and a festivus for the rest of us.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Dec 23, 2017 17:14:24 GMT -5
note: i have noted that the political divide is very strong on this, so i am especially interested in hearing from the INDEPENDENTS on this board (those that have no political affiliation) I used to think of myself as an independent, but now I don't know. I think I am going with ^republican
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dezii
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Post by dezii on Dec 23, 2017 18:40:21 GMT -5
fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrats-wave-could-turn-into-a-flood/the generic ballot was +18D the day after the tax bill. the GOP is counting on several things: 1) their tax-cut and borrow agenda will resonate with Reagan Democrats 2) as time goes on, this bill will be viewed as wildly popular among Independents 3) this is the first of many successes that will lead to ballot success in 2018 i think this is all wrong for a variety of reasons. but rather than giving you the temperature, why doesn't everyone here tell me why i am right (or wrong)? note: i have noted that the political divide is very strong on this, so i am especially interested in hearing from the INDEPENDENTS on this board (those that have no political affiliation) For one reason...those Reagan Democrats...? They are all dead. As far as independents...they are wild about nothing....there example of wildly is oatmeal with brown sugar on top. As far as ballot success...took a year...just before closing.. a major bill finally passed almost last day of the year and only adding minimum of1.5 TRILLION to nations debt...most know will go to $2.2 TRILLION ...Panetta claims everything falls into place...approximately $4 trillion....and the man still is accused of being a rapest [13 year old Pro, plus ex wife too plus 15 woman accusing him of....plus caught on tape with his boasts...throw in his walking into dressing rooms of teen age girls in his pageants..[ daughter collaborated on that one]
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dezii
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Post by dezii on Dec 23, 2017 19:05:52 GMT -5
By Nov 2018, I think the tax bill will be old news. The economy will only help the R's, if it is helping regular people. Not the stock market is up, or profits are up, but actual wages. I think the D's take the house, even with gerrymandering. The party in power almost always loses seats and I can't think of anything short of a catastrophic event uniting the country around Trump. The best the R's can hope for is that Trump is quiet. They don't get primaried by crazies. And the economy is great. The D's need to stay out of their own way. Pick candidates that are right for their district and not lurch too far to the left. You all realize the new tax bill does not go into affect as far as filing till 2018 taxes ...more $ in paycheck for those who will get it starts in February... There is one positive for those in high tax States...If one has the cash hanging around, one can prepay next year taxes so able to deduct all property and car taxes..best check with your local tax collector...mentioned to my daughter..they are in Massachusetts..Concord and summer place on Vine Yard...their accountant had already mentioned it to them and they are taking advantage of that...Son too is interested...is calling sister for details.. Any here in that type of situation , might want to check with their accountants...
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 23, 2017 19:21:37 GMT -5
fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrats-wave-could-turn-into-a-flood/the generic ballot was +18D the day after the tax bill. the GOP is counting on several things: 1) their tax-cut and borrow agenda will resonate with Reagan Democrats 2) as time goes on, this bill will be viewed as wildly popular among Independents 3) this is the first of many successes that will lead to ballot success in 2018 i think this is all wrong for a variety of reasons. but rather than giving you the temperature, why doesn't everyone here tell me why i am right (or wrong)? note: i have noted that the political divide is very strong on this, so i am especially interested in hearing from the INDEPENDENTS on this board (those that have no political affiliation) For one reason...those Reagan Democrats...? They are all dead. no, but 90% of them are either RETIRED or NEAR RETIREMENT. which means that most of them have long ago shed their DINO status and are bedrock Republicans.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Dec 23, 2017 19:24:23 GMT -5
By Nov 2018, I think the tax bill will be old news. The economy will only help the R's, if it is helping regular people. Not the stock market is up, or profits are up, but actual wages. I think the D's take the house, even with gerrymandering. The party in power almost always loses seats and I can't think of anything short of a catastrophic event uniting the country around Trump. The best the R's can hope for is that Trump is quiet. They don't get primaried by crazies. And the economy is great. The D's need to stay out of their own way. Pick candidates that are right for their district and not lurch too far to the left. You all realize the new tax bill does not go into affect as far as filing till 2018 taxes ...more $ in paycheck for those who will get it starts in February... There is one positive for those in high tax States...If one has the cash hanging around, one can prepay next year taxes so able to deduct all property and car taxes..best check with your local tax collector...mentioned to my daughter..they are in Massachusetts..Concord and summer place on Vine Yard...their accountant had already mentioned it to them and they are taking advantage of that...Son too is interested...is calling sister for details.. Any here in that type of situation , might want to check with their accountants... Not necessarily. Your local authority has to allow it. I would have prepaid mine but state law does not allow the prepayment of property taxes.
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Shooby
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Post by Shooby on Dec 23, 2017 19:26:41 GMT -5
Oooo i am sooooo scared!!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 23, 2017 19:30:38 GMT -5
Oooo i am sooooo scared!! thank you for sarcastically confirming my thread title. and Merry Christmas.
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dezii
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Post by dezii on Dec 23, 2017 19:39:24 GMT -5
I think Obama didn't get much credit because the recovery was painfully slow and unbalanced. I also think he came in on such a wave of unfairly high expectations that it was inevitable he would disappoint. If u remember...it's been a while, about eight years, he came into office just as we were this close going into a full recession...remember the stimulus and stuff...even GOP economist said so... so with that much of a mountain to climb it would seem like a slow recovery... and our poor Donald is crying " oh woe is me, woe is me...never has a POTUS had such a terrible entrance into the office with such problems..oh boo hoo hoo on me...where is my mommy and my teddy bear.."
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dezii
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Post by dezii on Dec 23, 2017 19:41:34 GMT -5
You all realize the new tax bill does not go into affect as far as filing till 2018 taxes ...more $ in paycheck for those who will get it starts in February... There is one positive for those in high tax States...If one has the cash hanging around, one can prepay next year taxes so able to deduct all property and car taxes..best check with your local tax collector...mentioned to my daughter..they are in Massachusetts..Concord and summer place on Vine Yard...their accountant had already mentioned it to them and they are taking advantage of that...Son too is interested...is calling sister for details.. Any here in that type of situation , might want to check with their accountants... Not necessarily. Your local authority has to allow it. I would have prepaid mine but state law does not allow the prepayment of property taxes. ".best check with your local tax collector." I thought I mentioned that...
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 23, 2017 19:43:14 GMT -5
Republicans Should Be S(*tscared....But They Aren't Don't worry! They only care about "real american!" votes. I'm not one, they told me so themselves. I'm not a real american because: I was a single mother. I'm vegan. I live in a large city. I live in a blue state. I'm highly educated. I have taught graduate-level coursework. So - they don't want my votes. Not to worry, they will never get it again. it's a win-win. We neither of us want the other. In 2018 - could spell win-win-win. the only way that works out for them (having the largest share of a shrinking demographic) is to prevent others from voting. it worked great for the Founders for almost a century. and then for another half century, they managed to keep over half the population from having voting rights. part of Making America Great Again is turning back the clock. it will be interesting to see where that ends. probably not well.
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Rukh O'Rorke
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Dec 23, 2017 20:43:07 GMT -5
Don't worry! They only care about "real american!" votes. I'm not one, they told me so themselves. I'm not a real american because: I was a single mother. I'm vegan. I live in a large city. I live in a blue state. I'm highly educated. I have taught graduate-level coursework. So - they don't want my votes. Not to worry, they will never get it again. it's a win-win. We neither of us want the other. In 2018 - could spell win-win- win. the only way that works out for them (having the largest share of a shrinking demographic) is to prevent others from voting. it worked great for the Founders for almost a century. and then for another half century, they managed to keep over half the population from having voting rights. part of Making America Great Again is turning back the clock. it will be interesting to see where that ends. probably not well. um, the third win was suppose to be for the ^republicans
^ being not in SAS coding......
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Shooby
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Post by Shooby on Dec 23, 2017 21:30:41 GMT -5
I love how liberals like to tell conservatives in power to "be scared". What is that a threat?
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b2r
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Post by b2r on Dec 23, 2017 21:36:26 GMT -5
I love how liberals like to tell conservatives in power to "be scared". What is that a threat? No, you should be scared, and if you were smart, (like them) you would be!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 24, 2017 1:26:02 GMT -5
I love how liberals like to tell conservatives in power to "be scared". first of all, i am not talking to Republicans in power. i am in no position to give them advice, only to observe how they behave, and question it. second of all, i didn't tell them to "be scared". the expression means "they have reason to be worried". it doesn't mean they should flee in terror. it means they should recognize the threat. it's real. they should probably react/defend against it, as well. i see zero evidence that they are doing or plan on doing either. and that looks arrogant as fuck. reminds me of Clinton. if they keep it up, they are going to go down. and just like Clinton, nobody will shed a tear.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 24, 2017 1:30:54 GMT -5
I love how liberals like to tell conservatives in power to "be scared". What is that a threat? No, you should be scared, and if you were smart, (like them) you would be! being afraid doesn't make you smart. recognizing a threat does. you are not convincing me that you recognize the threat. you seem to think everything is going perfectly. edit: you are free to do that right up to next November.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Dec 24, 2017 2:29:34 GMT -5
Fear (worry, concern, etc.) comes from situational awareness. It's easy not to recognize a threat if you have little or no awareness, and even more so if you think awareness is a bad thing in itself.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Dec 24, 2017 13:08:27 GMT -5
Lackumen.
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