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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2017 13:24:53 GMT -5
I'm not scared at all. In politics like in life the wind blows this way and then the other way. I expect most of us will muck our way through any way it blows so no fears here at all.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 24, 2017 14:00:09 GMT -5
I'm not scared at all. In politics like in life the wind blows this way and then the other way. I expect most of us will muck our way through any way it blows so no fears here at all. so, just to be clear, you see no possibility that the GOP will lose the House next year?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2017 14:31:17 GMT -5
I have no party affiliation and I consider myself leaning fiscally conservative and socially liberal.
I thought the business tax rates did need to come down for competitive reasons, my problem with what happened is the tax cuts weren’t paid for.
This will flip my federal vote from solidly GOP (besides president) in 2016 to solidly Dem in 2018. State will remain solidly GOP cuz Illinois.
If the GOP isn’t being fiscally conservative, they have nothing else on the platform that gets my vote.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2017 14:32:13 GMT -5
I'm not scared at all. In politics like in life the wind blows this way and then the other way. I expect most of us will muck our way through any way it blows so no fears here at all. so, just to be clear, you see no possibility that the GOP will lose the House next year? I do see it. It doesn't scare me though. Scare is a pretty strong word but because that is the word you chose my answer is no. Win or lose I will not be scared.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 24, 2017 16:12:06 GMT -5
so, just to be clear, you see no possibility that the GOP will lose the House next year? I do see it. It doesn't scare me though. Scare is a pretty strong word but because that is the word you chose my answer is no. Win or lose I will not be scared. good for you. but i already explained my use of the phrase. i was using a euphemism for "aware and alert". you seem aware and alert. so is Bernie Sanders:
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 24, 2017 16:24:15 GMT -5
I have no party affiliation and I consider myself leaning fiscally conservative and socially liberal. I thought the business tax rates did need to come down for competitive reasons, my problem with what happened is the tax cuts weren’t paid for. This will flip my federal vote from solidly GOP (besides president) in 2016 to solidly Dem in 2018. State will remain solidly GOP cuz Illinois. If the GOP isn’t being fiscally conservative, they have nothing else on the platform that gets my vote. this is precisely why i quit the party in November. the person they elected has a hard-on for debt and cutting taxes. it is a budgetary train wreck that is just waiting to happen. it WILL happen. and i can't abide by that. so, i am independent now. i will vote for anti-war, fiscally responsible candidates from here on out. disclosure: i stopped voting for Democrats 2 decades ago for this reason, and now i won't be voting for Republicans. just to be clear. the fiscal conservatives have been replaced by supply side idiots. not acceptable.
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Post by dezii on Dec 24, 2017 16:30:43 GMT -5
I have no party affiliation and I consider myself leaning fiscally conservative and socially liberal. I thought the business tax rates did need to come down for competitive reasons, my problem with what happened is the tax cuts weren’t paid for. This will flip my federal vote from solidly GOP (besides president) in 2016 to solidly Dem in 2018. State will remain solidly GOP cuz Illinois. If the GOP isn’t being fiscally conservative, they have nothing else on the platform that gets my vote. this is precisely why i quit the party in November. the person they elected has a hard-on for debt and cutting taxes. it is a budgetary train wreck that is just waiting to happen. it WILL happen. and i can't abide by that. so, i am independent now. i will vote for anti-war, fiscally responsible candidates from here on out. You would think, regarding the fiscally responsible, that would be GOP...though if latest escapade of them with the Tax program,....hugh debt increase...that's not the case and from what they are saying , cut Social programs come 1st of the year..emphasis on that from statements of house and Senate leaders,,,to pay for the debt increases..and now a 4 trillion missile defense build up...so who do u support..... www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-missile-defense-flaws-20171222-story.html-------------------------------------------- "Citing North Korea’s growing nuclear and ballistic missile threat, the Trump administration is moving to vastly expand the problem-plagued homeland missile defense system despite warnings that the planned upgrades may not succeed. Immediate plans call for building two $1-billion radar installations and adding 20 rocket interceptors to the 44 already deployed in underground silos at Ft. Greely in Alaska and at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. ----------------------------------------- Lets not forget the wall...cost of 25 Billion...where is all this money coming from , plus the $ already voted for the Hurricanes in Puerto Rico, Texas, Louisiana and now fires in California... and we have CUT taxes...and who knows what other national calamities we may face this coming year...all those "fake" weather warming happenings according to our Donald...not really happening...[sheesh]
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Post by pooks on Dec 24, 2017 16:31:38 GMT -5
I have no party affiliation and I consider myself leaning fiscally conservative and socially liberal. I thought the business tax rates did need to come down for competitive reasons, my problem with what happened is the tax cuts weren’t paid for. This will flip my federal vote from solidly GOP (besides president) in 2016 to solidly Dem in 2018. State will remain solidly GOP cuz Illinois. If the GOP isn’t being fiscally conservative, they have nothing else on the platform that gets my vote. this is precisely why i quit the party in November. the person they elected has a hard-on for debt and cutting taxes. it is a budgetary train wreck that is just waiting to happen. it WILL happen. and i can't abide by that. so, i am independent now. i will vote for anti-war, fiscally responsible candidates from here on out. This is the kind of republican I was as well. Seems they have decided they don't need us. Oh well, there wasn't anything else holding me to that party, as socially I am pretty liberal.
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 24, 2017 16:37:09 GMT -5
there is a huge opening for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal candidate.
but i am convinced that the GOP is NEVER going to field that candidate for the following reasons:
1) they are wed to the evangelical wing of the party. the tepid, waffling response to Moore puts that in the spotlight. 2) they are wed to the MIC. they are NEVER going to vote for military spending cuts. EVER. 3) they are obsessed with cutting taxes to such a degree that they will NEVER preside over a surplus, again.
so, i am done with them. perhaps an independent that runs away from the evangelicals and toward fiscal responsibility will run, and at that point i will be ALL IN, no matter what party he/she is from.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2017 16:38:23 GMT -5
this is precisely why i quit the party in November. the person they elected has a hard-on for debt and cutting taxes. it is a budgetary train wreck that is just waiting to happen. it WILL happen. and i can't abide by that. so, i am independent now. i will vote for anti-war, fiscally responsible candidates from here on out. You would think, regarding the fiscally responsible, that would be GOP...though if latest escapade of thm with the Tax program,....hugh debt increase...that's not the case and from what they are saying , cut Social programs come 1st of the year..emphasis on that from statements of house and Senate leaders,,,to pay for the debt increases..and now a 4 trillion missile defense build up...so who do u support..... www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-missile-defense-flaws-20171222-story.htmlThat’s another one, I think Defense needs slashed but in reality everyone will keep their pet projects and get even more funding. Social programs I do think need updated but I support SS as a we don’t want old people on the streets plan. Our whole friggin healthcare system needs an overhaul.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 24, 2017 16:52:20 GMT -5
You would think, regarding the fiscally responsible, that would be GOP...though if latest escapade of thm with the Tax program,....hugh debt increase...that's not the case and from what they are saying , cut Social programs come 1st of the year..emphasis on that from statements of house and Senate leaders,,,to pay for the debt increases..and now a 4 trillion missile defense build up...so who do u support..... www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-missile-defense-flaws-20171222-story.htmlThat’s another one, I think Defense needs slashed but in reality everyone will keep their pet projects and get even more funding. Social programs I do think need updated but I support SS as a we don’t want old people on the streets plan. Our whole friggin healthcare system needs an overhaul. they should take a hatchet to it. i would like to see it cut in HALF. it has not been the department of DEFENSE since the Spanish American War. it is the War department. and that is NOT what the founders wanted, nor is it what most Americans want.
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dezii
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Post by dezii on Dec 24, 2017 17:10:26 GMT -5
2018 is just days from now and as this next article says..GOP is probably / most likely , will need cooperation of Democrats to get anything accomplished in this mid term election year... Their only real accomplishments , not counting the repeal by Presidential mandate, not new legislation, of fourteen of Obamas decrees by our Donald, is the tax reform bill that adds a trillion and a half plus more to the debt...after 2025 will see a increase in most of middle American paychecks as tax cuts fall off the boards, except for the corporate tax cuts...there forever now plus estate taxes that may put as much as a billion into the Donald's estate as well as other extremely wealthy folks...so that's why over 55 % of tax payers not in favor of that bill.. ------------------------------------------------------------- "WASHINGTON Their tax bill triumph in the rear-view mirror, Republicans running Congress face a 2018 in which they'll need Democratic votes to get almost anything done. And that won't be easy. Short of a few must-pass items, divisions within both parties plus a natural election-year tendency to draw distinctions with the other side means achievements and cooperation will be minimal. The pressure will be on the GOP, which controls the White House, Senate and House and would probably be blamed by voters for any major screw-ups. Since Republicans will have just a 51-49 Senate majority next year — well shy of the 60 votes needed to pass most bills — Democrats will have leverage for most things, including a deal to prevent a politically jolting January federal shutdown. " ========================================== Read more here: www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article191393219.html#storylink=cpywww.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article191393219.html
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2017 18:03:40 GMT -5
I only get spotscared when I see... you know... them. Glad to see the term is gaining some traction, though.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 24, 2017 18:06:29 GMT -5
"... Democrats will have leverage for most things, including a deal to prevent a politically jolting January federal shutdown." Is it time to pump some more epinephrine into that shambling corpse already?
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 24, 2017 19:51:30 GMT -5
Virgil: i wish you and yours a Merry Christmas. if you are wondering what to give me for Christmas, not cluttering up my threads with your bullshit would be nice.
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Dec 24, 2017 22:49:10 GMT -5
I do see it. It doesn't scare me though. Scare is a pretty strong word but because that is the word you chose my answer is no. Win or lose I will not be scared. good for you. but i already explained my use of the phrase. i was using a euphemism for "aware and alert". you seem aware and alert. so is Bernie Sanders: I have to say that I'm somewhat suspicious of this "x should be worried about Y" when the person saying it doesn't really want x to benefit from the warning. If 2018 was ready to spring up and hit the gop upside the head - well - bernie would be one of the last people who would actually want to warn them of that - so what purpose does the warning serve? to whom is he talking? and with what objective?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 25, 2017 0:45:52 GMT -5
good for you. but i already explained my use of the phrase. i was using a euphemism for "aware and alert". you seem aware and alert. so is Bernie Sanders: I have to say that I'm somewhat suspicious of this "x should be worried about Y" when the person saying it doesn't really want x to benefit from the warning. oh, but i do. i want the GOP to stop being a bunch of complete fucking idiots and craft legislation that actually helps the nation or it's people. IE- a tax bill which raised taxes, followed by spending cuts. that would be lovely for the nation. or, if you want to cut taxes, make a $50k personal exemption and leave the rates where they are. that would be tremendously progressive, and create a lot of economic stimulus. so, yeah, you could be suspicious of this as a policy statement. i guess. but sometimes, people really are acting out of the best interests of the nation. honest.
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Post by haapai on Dec 25, 2017 4:09:07 GMT -5
I don't understand gerrymandering nearly well enough to take cheer from what you have posted. Can you suggest a course of study that would bring me in line? I'm kinda weak on the mechanisms and margins that are currently being used and scared to death of what might happen in the 2020 redistricting barring an upset.
In other words, point me in the direction of math instead of happy talk.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Dec 25, 2017 8:46:00 GMT -5
Virgil: i wish you and yours a Merry Christmas. if you are wondering what to give me for Christmas, not cluttering up my threads with your bullshit would be nice. No can do, my friend. I don't celebrate Christmas. Trust me. I know the frustration that is seeing people who should be scared blithely marching ahead without a care in the world.
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Post by billisonboard on Dec 25, 2017 9:24:39 GMT -5
I don't understand gerrymandering nearly well enough to take cheer from what you have posted. Can you suggest a course of study that would bring me in line? I'm kinda weak on the mechanisms and margins that are currently being used and scared to death of what might happen in the 2020 redistricting barring an upset. In other words, point me in the direction of math instead of happy talk. Redistricting lesson number one: The census is conducted in years ending in "0" and states are provided with data in years ending in "1" to use to develop redistricting plans.
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Post by thyme4change on Dec 25, 2017 10:06:27 GMT -5
Technically, I am an independent, but definitely siding with the Dems right now. I currently think both parties should be concerned. I don't think either of them have a lock, or a finger on the pulse of America.
Here are a couple of reasons the democrats shouldn't get too confident.
1) The tax cut gives a lot of money to people who can make giant things happen. Every voter getting even 50 bucks a paycheck might not be as effective as 10 billion dollars worth of advertising very close to the election.
2) I don't really have faith in generic ballots. The democrats I imagine are always who I want them to be. The democrats that are actually running can be super unlikable, crazy liberal, and sometimes annoyingly whiny. Granted, I believe I would vote for anyone who will take power from Trump, but that is easy for me to say because i am picking between a Bannon approved flat-earth idiot vs. someone with a moderate track record. If I was picking between an insane, obnoxious progressive and a moderate Republican, I would have to give it some thought. And I am left of center. Imagine what a right of center person would have to consider.
Democrats shouldn't count on the anger of democrats to create a wave they can ride back into power. What are they doing for the middle? They need to have a more likeable stance. I don't think they can compete on anger. Trump has that locked down.
That said, I can't imagine Republicans will keep the tri-fecta. I hope the Dems get the Senate. I would like to see an aggressive push for compromise. I actually think if the power was more balanced, Trump might be willing to negotiate a lot. He got his tax cuts. He once was super excited about infrastructure spending, and everyone agrees the ACA needs change. He could be talked into some stuff.
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Post by milee on Dec 25, 2017 13:21:42 GMT -5
there is a huge opening for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal candidate. but i am convinced that the GOP is NEVER going to field that candidate for the following reasons: 1) they are wed to the evangelical wing of the party. the tepid, waffling response to Moore puts that in the spotlight. 2) they are wed to the MIC. they are NEVER going to vote for military spending cuts. EVER. 3) they are obsessed with cutting taxes to such a degree that they will NEVER preside over a surplus, again. so, i am done with them. perhaps an independent that runs away from the evangelicals and toward fiscal responsibility will run, and at that point i will be ALL IN, no matter what party he/she is from. I've been begging for fiscally conservative, socially liberal candidates for a couple of decades now. No such luck. Increasingly strong Republican ties to the Christian Evangelicals are frightening to say the least; the only reason I remain registered as one party (instead of Independent) is the ability to vote in our state's primaries. Just wanted to let you know you're not the only one who is desperately seeking fiscal conservative, socially liberal unicorns. And I don't think we're the only ones looking for this but I also don't know how long it will take either party to come around, if they ever will.
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 25, 2017 13:42:29 GMT -5
a step in the right direction would be a candidate that has well thought out proposals rather than a bloated puppet spitting out campaign drivel without a modicum of real thinking behind it. i don't want America to Grate Again. i want America to THINK again. i want America to GROW again. i want America to INNOVATE again.
this backward looking rubbish needs to stop. now. or we are going to end up in the dustbin along with the Romans.
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 25, 2017 13:49:22 GMT -5
2) I don't really have faith in generic ballots. they are pretty good predictors. i don't have FAITH in anything, really. just ask Virgil. i just observe facts, and act on them. in this case, there is the FACT that the generic ballot has not been this tilted since 1938. that's not a typo. i actually think that being faithless in this situation is GREAT for all parties concerned. the GOP will go on blithely thinking that they have it in the bag, and that their Project For A New American Century is just beginning: making America into a colossus that o'ershadows even Rome, and straddles history itself. and Democrats can continue living in fear of 2016. it will be good for them. they have been overconfident about presidential elections since 2004, imo. it's great for them to be terrified of losing to a hack a second time. ditto for offyear congressional elections. the more terrified they are, the better it will be for US politics, imo.
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 25, 2017 13:54:11 GMT -5
That said, I can't imagine Republicans will keep the tri-fecta. I hope the Dems get the Senate. I would like to see an aggressive push for compromise. I actually think if the power was more balanced, Trump might be willing to negotiate a lot. He got his tax cuts. He once was super excited about infrastructure spending, and everyone agrees the ACA needs change. He could be talked into some stuff. they will probably lose both. that is my current prediction. my predictions are never laid in stone (please feel free to doubt me. EVER). for example, i thought it was about 80% likely one month before the election that Clinton would win. by election day, i was only 60% confident. she lost. but 60:40 is not a very good betting line. with odds that low, i would rarely bet more than $100. too close to call is what i usually would call those sort of odds. the odds of Democrats winning back both the House and the Senate are quite a bit better than that right now, imo. i could explain why, but it is a waste of time this early. one thing to remember: only 1/3 of the Senate seats come up in 2018, and they were seats that we last saw in 2012. i think you will recall what kind of a year that was for Democrats. so that is NOT a good midterm to bank on. 2020 will be much better for them in the Senate. the House is a different matter. with the generic ballot this far ahead, they should have about a 5-7% advantage over the last election in virtually EVERY race. you can go down the list and do the math, but it would be surprising if they couldn't flip a couple dozen seats. they don't need that many.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 25, 2017 13:55:43 GMT -5
there is a huge opening for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal candidate. but i am convinced that the GOP is NEVER going to field that candidate for the following reasons: 1) they are wed to the evangelical wing of the party. the tepid, waffling response to Moore puts that in the spotlight. 2) they are wed to the MIC. they are NEVER going to vote for military spending cuts. EVER. 3) they are obsessed with cutting taxes to such a degree that they will NEVER preside over a surplus, again. so, i am done with them. perhaps an independent that runs away from the evangelicals and toward fiscal responsibility will run, and at that point i will be ALL IN, no matter what party he/she is from. I've been begging for fiscally conservative, socially liberal candidates for a couple of decades now. No such luck. Increasingly strong Republican ties to the Christian Evangelicals are frightening to say the least; the only reason I remain registered as one party (instead of Independent) is the ability to vote in our state's primaries. Just wanted to let you know you're not the only one who is desperately seeking fiscal conservative, socially liberal unicorns. And I don't think we're the only ones looking for this but I also don't know how long it will take either party to come around, if they ever will. I think Goldwater was the last one that actually challenged the GOP with a fiscally conservative/socially liberal platform and won. Like DJ said I just don’t see a route where the GOP lets it happen again and it’s gonna take an Independent.
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 25, 2017 14:02:45 GMT -5
I don't understand gerrymandering nearly well enough to take cheer from what you have posted. Can you suggest a course of study that would bring me in line? I'm kinda weak on the mechanisms and margins that are currently being used and scared to death of what might happen in the 2020 redistricting barring an upset. In other words, point me in the direction of math instead of happy talk. i would like you to read this, first of all: www.redistrictingmajorityproject.com/it is a plan of pure genius. but it is a plan that can work for Democrats, as well. there is another plan that would also work. the states can ratify non-partisan redistricting commissions. these commissions would strive to locate as many Democrats as Republicans in districts, so that races are competitive, rather than skewing districts so that you get what you have in Virginia- where Democrats get 10% more votes than Republicans, but the delegation is a dead heat, and the congressional districts are wildly Republican. i am glad you like the math. i prefer it, as well. it is actually why the GOP should be s(*tscared. the math is really bad for them. their best demographics are old white people. the old is an obvious enough problem. we are mortal. that is a shrinking demographic. the white is also a problem for them. many states are now majority minority. it is a trend that will keep coming. again, i don't want to take the time to explain it. it is just a fact. even Virgil alluded to it (albeit in a typically obtuse and alarmist way) on another thread. the GOP is going to need to remake the party, or it will become like the Whig Party: a historical footnote.
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formerroomate99
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Post by formerroomate99 on Dec 25, 2017 17:05:12 GMT -5
Republicans Should Be S(*tscared....But They Aren't Don't worry! They only care about "real american!" votes. I'm not one, they told me so themselves. I'm not a real american because: I was a single mother. I'm vegan. I live in a large city. I live in a blue state. I'm highly educated. I have taught graduate-level coursework. So - they don't want my votes. Not to worry, they will never get it again. it's a win-win. We neither of us want the other. In 2018 - could spell win-win-win. Other than the single mother thing, you just described a good chunk of my coworkers. Most of them voted for Trump.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 25, 2017 17:56:21 GMT -5
Highly educated grad school teachers who are vegan, urban, Blue state dwellers?
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formerroomate99
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Post by formerroomate99 on Dec 25, 2017 18:08:41 GMT -5
Yep my bad. Most of my coworkers are highly educated. About half of them are vegan. But they aren’t blue state dwellers.
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