Wisconsin Beth
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BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 12:19:33 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Wisconsin Beth on Jun 25, 2016 12:19:33 GMT -5
There was no exit polls......but although it was always going to be close......all the various pollsters got it wrong and it didn't go as predicted. I think some people may simply be more vocal than others........ Loud mouthed activists rushing out to tell everyone how they voted and drowning others out. Or the sudden realisation that saying "no" to an open border with 500 million people......doesn't make you a closet racist It just makes you sensible. We simply don't have the infrastructure or the will to cope when so many of our own citizens are struggling. The EU has been told time and time again that we and countless other places were not happy...but with a system of 28 self interested countries, some of them very poor.... and all with the power of veto, it proved impossible to get any kind of meaningful change. Europe are being extremely arsey with us and still trying to call the shots........even though our rights to negotiate leaving are enshrined in the agreed law. Fine....If the German car makers give us a bad deal we'll do a deal with Japan.... We don't need French cheese and wine... we can get it from other places.They could be cutting off their noses to spite their faces. We still have a big market which imports more than we export. Cest La Vie. Wisconsin has a thriving cheese and wine industry - look for stuff from Door county the cheese might be celebrated but I'm not sure most Wisconsin wine is not going to be a big step down...
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 25, 2016 12:23:54 GMT -5
It does look like that from afar but vast numbers, for whatever reason....have had enough of immigration....and that's a fact. They have been saying it for years....... but none in the ruling elite would listen. There is a disconnect.....which if anyone was shocked by it...... they should have gone outside London for answers. it should look the same from every angle. immigration has little, if anything, to do with the problems in the UK and the US. there is a clear danger in scapegoating these very real problems, as well as it being unproductive.
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Spellbound454
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"In the end, we remember not the words of our enemies but the silence of our friends"
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 25, 2016 12:25:05 GMT -5
For my opinion... It was that the EU is moving in to greater integration.......We were never going to be a part of that,( with its loss of sovereignty)... We were always going to be on the periphery with very little influence....and its set to get worse. The Euro is unstable. Italy is in a bad way.........and Greece will be needing another bail-out. As trading blocs go...Its performance is poor. It has not been getting the trade deals that we need to prosper and has lead to large numbers of unemployed youngsters right across the Continent. We ourselves are unable to negotiate our own trade deals because of our membership. We pay far more in than we get out.... and our tax payers money is used to prop up poorer, ex eastern bloc countries....whilst many of our own areas are deprived. We would have to provide housing, jobs and services for potentially as many people as who arrived at the door....and we simply can't do it. The migrant crisis has been very badly handled and is set to get worse.
There is a risk coming out of the EU but there are also risks staying in.
I think that in the early days it was a very good and noble concept for a war ravaged Europe....but its had its day and we are now much more globalised.. Greater fiscal union is the only way to go for them...It doesn't include us....and it never did.
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Deleted
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BREXIT!
Jun 25, 2016 12:25:33 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2016 12:25:33 GMT -5
She doesn't care for the English ? I just had it described to me, last week on this forum no less, that the EU was a "utopia". It's starting not to look like it. It wasn't Dem that said it was a utopia. I wasn't really trying to be sarcastic It's just what I was told.
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Virgil Showlion
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[b]leones potest resistere[/b]
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BREXIT!
Jun 26, 2016 8:03:57 GMT -5
Post by Virgil Showlion on Jun 26, 2016 8:03:57 GMT -5
People lie like Persian rugs during exit polls, which is one of the reasons they weren't used for the Brexit. People lie predictably, meaning that pollsters can compare data to recent baselines, factor out the predictable bias, and wind up with reasonably accurate results. The last baseline for a vote of this kind in Britain was more than four decades ago, making it worthless. Hence, no exit polls. British reporting and privacy laws also played a part. huh? no- an exit poll was done in the UK in 2005, and it was spot on: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005 (see polling) First of all, one example of a poll being "spot on" doesn't prove anything. Secondly, you can show as many such examples as you want. They have predictable baselines and the bias can be factored out to yield accurate estimates. No such baseline was available for Brexit.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Jun 26, 2016 8:18:24 GMT -5
It does look like that from afar but vast numbers, for whatever reason....have had enough of immigration....and that's a fact. They have been saying it for years....... but none in the ruling elite would listen. There is a disconnect.....which if anyone was shocked by it...... they should have gone outside London for answers. it should look the same from every angle. immigration has little, if anything, to do with the problems in the UK and the US. there is a clear danger in scapegoating these very real problems, as well as it being unproductive. What are you basing this statement on? They're clearly displacing labourers and workers in general in an environment where work is already hard to find. If their statistics in any way resemble the stats I posted for refugees in Canada, they're a net drain on benefits and resources, and an additional weight on infrastructure. I don't know what the sum of "the problems" in the UK and US is in this context, but there's a simpler question to be asked: Are Britons better off with the additional immigration or without it? I say all signs point to "without" for the reasons I mentioned in the last debate. Are you claiming otherwise? If so, on what basis? I hope it's not "We were all immigrants once," as though factors like saturation, demographics, flexibility of growth, availability of infrastructure haven't changed markedly over the centuries (or aren't relevant).
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Deleted
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BREXIT!
Jun 26, 2016 8:25:50 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2016 8:25:50 GMT -5
The fact that unemployment in UK is at 10 year low? Near 5%?
And only about half their immigration come from EU countries.
And im guessing a fair number of them end up in London, whose mayor was quick to state that they are welcome there.
The fact that the birth rate, long under replacement level, continues to drop.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Jun 26, 2016 9:49:16 GMT -5
The fact that unemployment in UK is at 10 year low? Near 5%? That's the same pap they push here. It's because the LFPR (percentage of the population "not in the labour force") has soared to multi-decade highs, and because four hours slinging burgers a week counts as "employed". In other words, governments in their infinite wisdom aren't counting unemployed people and critically underemployed people as unemployed. They can put out all the BS statistics they want, it doesn't change the conditions on the ground. That's what the masses have to contend with.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2016 10:20:35 GMT -5
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Spellbound454
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"In the end, we remember not the words of our enemies but the silence of our friends"
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 26, 2016 10:34:19 GMT -5
A lot of immigration went to the poor Northern towns. (who voted out) It puts a strain on jobs, services, healthcare, housing, education. ......and a lot of it is entry level, topped up with government benefits. Some immigrants have come to work .... but many have come just for welfare benefits, having never put into a system and jumping the queues of local people. There has been increases in Crime: Local people have felt marginalised and pushed out.
The wealthy and affluent have sat in their ivory towers, with their altruistic dreams, telling everyone how wonderful it all is..... but for many local people, immigration has not been a positive experience.
German minister blaming our attractive benefits payments.....but they are for our own citizens. We can't afford to pay for multitudes who turn up at the door.
The argument was made... that we should have a points based system (like Australia) to control the quantity and quality of immigration. We can fill the professional vacancies we have in the work force but not have an open door. We can also deport criminals and extremists.... without the European Court insisting that they stay.
I have just seen a Minister on TV "Remain" Saying we need to negotiate exit but we will still need an open border with the rest of the EU Our ruling elite still isn't listening. If they were shocked by the result they really must take an interest in the mood of the people from the rest of the Country.
People here aren't generally prejudiced...They just need to feel its under control......and an open border is a step too far.
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Virgil Showlion
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BREXIT!
Jun 26, 2016 12:35:45 GMT -5
Post by Virgil Showlion on Jun 26, 2016 12:35:45 GMT -5
Hm. Fair enough. Although the second factor still remains. I can't link to the specific data series, but according to the OECD, involuntary part-time employment among the labour force has doubled over the past decade in the UK, from 2% to 4.6%.
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OldCoyote
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BREXIT!
Jun 26, 2016 21:25:53 GMT -5
Post by OldCoyote on Jun 26, 2016 21:25:53 GMT -5
How would you know that, because they said they were not telling a lie? I don't see any difference between that and the phone poll I did where I told them just the opposite of what I believed!! you know that because, unlike most polls, you can compare to the actual results. this is really really old stuff at this point. i am shocked that it even requires discussion. Yes, Shocked I tell you Shocked!!!!!!!!!
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verrip1
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Post by verrip1 on Jun 27, 2016 12:35:03 GMT -5
It does look like that from afar but vast numbers, for whatever reason....have had enough of immigration....and that's a fact. They have been saying it for years....... but none in the ruling elite would listen. There is a disconnect.....which if anyone was shocked by it...... they should have gone outside London for answers. it should look the same from every angle. immigration has little, if anything, to do with the problems in the UK and the US. there is a clear danger in scapegoating these very real problems, as well as it being unproductive. I'd like to take issue with the comment I bolded above. To the people who believe that immigration is a significant problem, one needs to realize that the reality of an issue has very little to do with their perception of the issue. In the case of immigration (GB or US or anywhere else) a goodly number of people perceive it as a problem. It doesn't matter what data or analysis or modeling might bring to the table, their perceptions will remain intact. It's no different than all political issues in which 99% of the people have deep seated perceptions of what the problems are. If you look at guns, abortion, the economy, religion, the environment, special rights for protected classes, blah-blah woof-woof, people opine based on their perceptions. Anecdotes, op-eds, and speeches are the primary drivers of their perceptions, not facts and numbers. Now this may sound a little strange at first consideration, but the perceptions people have are reality. For one reason, very few people today can succeed at entertaining a concept while not accepting it. People don't really want to examine the facts and derive an opinion; instead they lock themselves into an opinion and believe only those facts which support their opinion. And I am serious that this is how almost everybody thinks. I could post a graph of the US homicide rate from the 17th century to date and no one who thinks that murders are rampant in the US would change their mind one iota because they perceive it to be true. They'd question my source, they'd question my veracity and manhood and compassion, they'd seek out any internet blog of someone who agrees with them (as though that would be some sort of a proof!), they'd look through all my old posts to see if I ever posted anything even remotely contrary (The Cardinal Sin Of Message Board Posting). they'd parse out other data while ignoring Frank Morgan behind the curtain. Now I'm not picking on those who feel that we live in a highly murderous society, instead I'm pointing out one example of people's perceptions creating their reality. So those who view immigration as a problem are inherently correct. And also people who view immigration as a non-problem are inherently correct. Sorry, but that's how things are and will be. Nobody promised that thinking was going to be easy. Those who think bringing facts into the discussion will change people's opinions are only fooling themselves that their target audience is anything other than minute. But of course everybody perceives themselves as open minded and fact-based; that's our reality no matter how unfounded a perception that is. It's all very teleological, but I'll spare everyone the boredom of me ranting further about that aspect of it, since I'm already hearing snore-like noises from my computer and I don't think it is a mechanical hard drive failure ...
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Deleted
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BREXIT!
Jun 27, 2016 12:48:54 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2016 12:48:54 GMT -5
What is the expectation then? Will England withdraw from inner market trade with the EU? Because even those like Norway needed to agree with free movement of people.
Is that the goal you think? What would that mean economically?
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verrip1
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Post by verrip1 on Jun 27, 2016 12:54:55 GMT -5
Mi tío es enfermo, pero la carretera es verde.
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Peace Of Mind
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Post by Peace Of Mind on Jun 27, 2016 15:22:27 GMT -5
it should look the same from every angle. immigration has little, if anything, to do with the problems in the UK and the US. there is a clear danger in scapegoating these very real problems, as well as it being unproductive. I'd like to take issue with the comment I bolded above. To the people who believe that immigration is a significant problem, one needs to realize that the reality of an issue has very little to do with their perception of the issue. In the case of immigration (GB or US or anywhere else) a goodly number of people perceive it as a problem. It doesn't matter what data or analysis or modeling might bring to the table, their perceptions will remain intact. It's no different than all political issues in which 99% of the people have deep seated perceptions of what the problems are. If you look at guns, abortion, the economy, religion, the environment, special rights for protected classes, blah-blah woof-woof, people opine based on their perceptions. Anecdotes, op-eds, and speeches are the primary drivers of their perceptions, not facts and numbers. Now this may sound a little strange at first consideration, but the perceptions people have are reality. For one reason, very few people today can succeed at entertaining a concept while not accepting it. People don't really want to examine the facts and derive an opinion; instead they lock themselves into an opinion and believe only those facts which support their opinion. And I am serious that this is how almost everybody thinks. I could post a graph of the US homicide rate from the 17th century to date and no one who thinks that murders are rampant in the US would change their mind one iota because they perceive it to be true. They'd question my source, they'd question my veracity and manhood and compassion, they'd seek out any internet blog of someone who agrees with them (as though that would be some sort of a proof!), they'd look through all my old posts to see if I ever posted anything even remotely contrary (The Cardinal Sin Of Message Board Posting). they'd parse out other data while ignoring Frank Morgan behind the curtain. Now I'm not picking on those who feel that we live in a highly murderous society, instead I'm pointing out one example of people's perceptions creating their reality. So those who view immigration as a problem are inherently correct. And also people who view immigration as a non-problem are inherently correct. Sorry, but that's how things are and will be. Nobody promised that thinking was going to be easy. Those who think bringing facts into the discussion will change people's opinions are only fooling themselves that their target audience is anything other than minute. But of course everybody perceives themselves as open minded and fact-based; that's our reality no matter how unfounded a perception that is. It's all very teleological, but I'll spare everyone the boredom of me ranting further about that aspect of it, since I'm already hearing snore-like noises from my computer and I don't think it is a mechanical hard drive failure ... This was beautifully said and so very true. People love to argue and be right and get frustrated with me because I know this (above) and won't play. I never liked spinning in circles as a child either.
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Spellbound454
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"In the end, we remember not the words of our enemies but the silence of our friends"
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BREXIT!
Jun 27, 2016 15:39:35 GMT -5
Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 27, 2016 15:39:35 GMT -5
That's all to come in the negotiations. We don't have a leader at the moment. The PM has resigned and and will leave in a couple of months when the new leader has been selected. They may call a general election.. or not. We then enact article 50 of the EU treaty.... which gives us two years to plan our exit. It has to be something good for us.... and the remaining Countries.(Who are pushing us to get stated)
There are quite a few options. Access to the EU in some form....or individual Countries. An alliance with non EU countries or bilateral trade agreements across the globe.
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billisonboard
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BREXIT!
Jun 27, 2016 15:40:54 GMT -5
Post by billisonboard on Jun 27, 2016 15:40:54 GMT -5
I find that the group most interesting to work with are middle schoolers. Younger kids just "are". High schoolers and adults know everything. There is the possibility of hitting on a moment that minds are open during those in-between years.
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Deleted
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BREXIT!
Jun 27, 2016 15:43:28 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2016 15:43:28 GMT -5
See, I find middle schoolers to be more know everything
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 27, 2016 15:45:05 GMT -5
Yes we are going to feel it for a while...... but we need to do this. There is no reason we can't be ok on the other side.
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billisonboard
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BREXIT!
Jun 27, 2016 15:51:15 GMT -5
Post by billisonboard on Jun 27, 2016 15:51:15 GMT -5
See, I find middle schoolers to be more know everything The trick is that what they know can be so different day to day. They are in the middle of attempting to figure out how the world fits together, who they are, and how they fit in that bigger picture. It is about planting seeds that you can see take root and become what they "know" down the line.
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