djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 24, 2016 11:25:40 GMT -5
Clinton: probably sweeps every primary except Vermont, but she only stands a 3:2 chance of winning in MA. Dumpster Fire: trails Cruz in TX and AR. trails Rubio in Minnesota. the following states have insufficient GOP polling: AL (Trump probably leads) TN (impossible to say who leads) CO (impossible to say who leads) VA, VT and AK are too close to call. the other (4) states are all lead by Trump. in other words, it COULD BE that Trump will win all of these states, but he has a much bigger lift than Clinton. Rubio is the least competitive of the top three candidates. but Cruz might do quite well on Super Tuesday. i would watch Virginia, which has good polling, a good electoral mix, and is as an indication of how this is likely to go. right now, Trump leads by 6%. no candidate has lead by more than 6% in any but one poll in that state. recap: as of today, Trump leads (4), Cruz leads (2), Rubio leads (1), and (6) states are either too close to call or have no polling data.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Feb 24, 2016 12:19:51 GMT -5
Dj, thank you for continuing to start these threads and post them. Its appreciated. Beth
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bean29
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Post by bean29 on Feb 24, 2016 12:29:47 GMT -5
I really don't think Sanders is electable. I also don't think Trump and Cruz are electable.
It will be horrifying if we get Trump Vs. Sanders or Cruz vs. Sanders. Course, I wound vote against Trump or Cruz in any case.
This election it may be a lesser of all evils vote.
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Post by Opti on Feb 24, 2016 13:05:37 GMT -5
I don't think it will be Trump vs. Sanders, but its possible.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 24, 2016 15:18:20 GMT -5
I don't think it will be Trump vs. Sanders, but its possible. as of TODAY, it would be Clinton -vs- Trump. there is no CURRENT reason to expect otherwise.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 24, 2016 15:19:09 GMT -5
i'll post polling as available, but it is pretty clear that some of these contests will be indeterminate until after they are held.
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 24, 2016 15:27:53 GMT -5
... ... Any chance you have an easy link to delegate allocation rules/numbers for either/both parties for the Super Tuesday states? I know that Texas is hybrid for the GOP. I will do my own work if you don't have something quick but have no problem being lazy if I can get away with it.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 24, 2016 15:31:14 GMT -5
most of these states are proportional with a winner take all trigger, but i think the trigger is set for 50%, and Trump is not going to reach that mark any any of these states with 1-2 very minor exceptions. i will post that map in a second.....
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 24, 2016 15:33:40 GMT -5
you'll have to compare the two maps, but i think you will find that most are proportional with trigger, and the rest are proportional, other than CO.
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 24, 2016 15:42:31 GMT -5
most of these states are proportional with a winner take all trigger, but i think the trigger is set for 50%, and Trump is not going to reach that mark any any of these states with 1-2 very minor exceptions. i will post that map in a second..... Thank you
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 24, 2016 15:51:52 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2016 16:02:31 GMT -5
I don't think it will be Trump vs. Sanders, but its possible. as of TODAY, it would be Clinton -vs- Trump. there is no CURRENT reason to expect otherwise. I'm expecting you to do better than your last mid-term, predictions/results. Don't disappoint.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 24, 2016 16:43:55 GMT -5
as of TODAY, it would be Clinton -vs- Trump. there is no CURRENT reason to expect otherwise. I'm expecting you to do better than your last mid-term, predictions/results. Don't disappoint. how can i do better than perfection?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 24, 2016 16:46:43 GMT -5
Texas is a very competitive race, and a super important one for Cruz. if he doesn't win there, i would like to see him drop out.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 24, 2016 16:55:41 GMT -5
Texas is a very competitive race, and a super important one for Cruz. if he doesn't win there, i would like to see him drop out. I am not sure how you take someone that a strong majority of those who should know them best don't support for president and make them the presidential nominee. If half or more of Texas Republican primary voters aren't willing to support a sitting Senator from Texas, why should the rest of the country? Same would hold for Rubio and Florida down the road.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 24, 2016 16:58:22 GMT -5
Texas is a very competitive race, and a super important one for Cruz. if he doesn't win there, i would like to see him drop out. I am not sure how you take someone that a strong majority of those who should know them best don't support for president and make them the presidential nominee. If half or more of Texas Republican primary voters aren't willing to support a sitting Senator from Texas, why should the rest of the country? Same would hold for Rubio and Florida down the road. i kind of feel the same way, bills. though my gag reflex takes over with Florida, where polling shows Trump up by 20%. if Cruz were to drop out, it would make that race very competitive, imo.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 24, 2016 20:35:31 GMT -5
new poll out today shows Texas a dead heat. agency is SurveyUSA, which is fairly good.
i still think that Cruz has the advantage in TX. and i still say he has to win it, or he may as well drop out.
edit: i rate Cruz about an 5:3 favourite right now. but this one is very close.
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Post by happyhoix on Feb 25, 2016 9:20:15 GMT -5
I don't think it will be Trump vs. Sanders, but its possible. as of TODAY, it would be Clinton -vs- Trump. there is no CURRENT reason to expect otherwise. DJ since you are the king of the polls, what are the current predictions on a Trump vs Hillary race?
I need to know just how much to be freaked out by a possible Trump win. I was depressed for months when Bush Jr got elected for a second term, I think Trump as president will likely kill me.
I keep trying to reassure myself that he doesn't understand how government actually works, so although he will embarrass us as a nation by what comes out of his mouth, he wouldn't be able to actually change much, or start a war (please God).
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2016 9:26:16 GMT -5
Current general election polls are Hillary with a thin margin (Sanders fares better)... But any numbers person will tell you gen election polls at this time mean next to nothing...
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 25, 2016 10:49:51 GMT -5
as of TODAY, it would be Clinton -vs- Trump. there is no CURRENT reason to expect otherwise. DJ since you are the king of the polls, what are the current predictions on a Trump vs Hillary race?
Clinton +3. she has never trailed him.
I need to know just how much to be freaked out by a possible Trump win. I was depressed for months when Bush Jr got elected for a second term, I think Trump as president will likely kill me.
I keep trying to reassure myself that he doesn't understand how government actually works, so although he will embarrass us as a nation by what comes out of his mouth, he wouldn't be able to actually change much, or start a war (please God).
i am not too worried. yet.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 25, 2016 10:50:48 GMT -5
Current general election polls are Hillary with a thin margin (Sanders fares better)... But any numbers person will tell you gen election polls at this time mean next to nothing... i wouldn't say that. what i would say is that they give you an indication of what is likely to happen, but not an indication of what will happen.
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Post by happyhoix on Feb 25, 2016 12:32:29 GMT -5
I'm interested to see what will happen during the general election if Trump gets the nod. There is so much dirt that can be flung at Trump.
For instance, the whole Trump University fiasco - I don't think any of his GOP opponents have mentioned that, but most of the victims of that scam were blue collars workers like his current voter base.
And I think he could be challenged on his statement that he's such a world class businessman - and for him mocking the banks and businesses that lost money when he declared bankruptcy as 'not nice people' - as though they deserved to be screwed out of money.
The negative ads will write themselves.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 25, 2016 12:39:10 GMT -5
I'm interested to see what will happen during the general election if Trump gets the nod. There is so much dirt that can be flung at Trump.
For instance, the whole Trump University fiasco - I don't think any of his GOP opponents have mentioned that, but most of the victims of that scam were blue collars workers like his current voter base.
And I think he could be challenged on his statement that he's such a world class businessman - and for him mocking the banks and businesses that lost money when he declared bankruptcy as 'not nice people' - as though they deserved to be screwed out of money.
The negative ads will write themselves.
it's too early to predict, but here is my general observation. Trump's campaigning style is to put others on the defensive. and it is working brilliantly. they are spending so much time defending themselves that they never go on offense. i think that if candidates actually went AFTER Trump instead of trying to tout themselves and defend themselves, they would be doing better. there is a new poll out in Texas by Montmouth that shows Cruz +15%. this is good news for him, if correct, and i have no reason to suspect it is not.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 25, 2016 13:02:34 GMT -5
i am updating slightly from earlier post: Dumpster Fire: trails Cruz in TX and AR. trails Rubio in Minnesota. the following states have insufficient GOP polling: AL (Trump probably leads) TN (impossible to say who leads) CO (impossible to say who leads) VA*, and AK are too close to call. Trump leads in GA* and OK, but is not a heavy favourite, there. Rubio is a slight favourite in VA*. the only "sure things"* for Trump right now are Mass and VT. this is way more interesting than most of the pundits are making it seem! *new polling out today shows him up 26% in GA. *new polling out today in VA shows him up 14%.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 26, 2016 22:52:23 GMT -5
Trump is leading in every state except the following:
Tennessee: insufficient polling Alaska: too close to call Colorado: insufficient polling Arkansas and Texas: Cruz leads
it is close in Oklahoma. Trump leads by less than 10%
it is possible, though unlikely, that Trump will sweep Super Tuesday.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 26, 2016 22:55:20 GMT -5
Clinton now leads in every state (except Vermont), but polling data is thin in Colorado and Minnesota.
it therefore looks to me like Clinton is likely to do better on Super Tuesday than Trump, but it is POSSIBLE that Trump will do as well or better than Clinton.
summary:
Clinton leads in all the Super Tuesday states but one, but there is insufficient data in two of them to make a firm prediction. Trump leads in all but three of the Super Tuesday states, and there is insufficient data in another three states to make a firm prediction.
if i were to guess, Clinton loses VT and Trump loses TX, AR, and MN next Tuesday. worst case scenario for both candidates: Clinton loses (3) states and Trump loses (5).
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 28, 2016 13:03:21 GMT -5
Trump is leading in every state except the following: Tennessee: insufficient polling Alaska: too close to call Colorado: insufficient polling Arkansas and Texas: Cruz leads it is close in Oklahoma. Trump leads by less than 10% it is possible, though unlikely, that Trump will sweep Super Tuesday. recent polling indicates that Clinton and Trump will win Tennessee comfortably.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 28, 2016 13:15:34 GMT -5
so, the latest recap:
Clinton trails one, insufficient data on 2, and is leading the rest. Trump trails three, insufficient data on 2, and is leading the rest.
2 days......and counting.....
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 28, 2016 14:48:59 GMT -5
One poll this morning showed Cruz well ahead in Texas over Trump. Something like a 15 point lead. Since Texas is proportional, Trump will pull enough delegates there to hold Cruz back. Cruz is hoping to win Oklahoma as well. We shall see. I doubt he does. After Super Tuesday, we have a few states that are winner take all, including Ohio and Florida. Kasich will be lucky to take Ohio. We all know neither Cruz or Rubio will win there, so guess who it leaves that has the only chance? Florida is Trump country. There has been a massive influx of new Republican voters there, indicating high turnout, and Florida is a closed primary where you have to vote the party you are listed in. Trump will not have enough delegates after Florida and Ohio, but it is just a matter of time until he closes the primary out.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 28, 2016 15:13:40 GMT -5
One poll this morning showed Cruz well ahead in Texas over Trump. Something like a 15 point lead. Since Texas is proportional, Trump will pull enough delegates there to hold Cruz back. Cruz is hoping to win Oklahoma as well. We shall see. I doubt he does. After Super Tuesday, we have a few states that are winner take all, including Ohio and Florida. Kasich will be lucky to take Ohio. We all know neither Cruz or Rubio will win there, so guess who it leaves that has the only chance? Florida is Trump country. There has been a massive influx of new Republican voters there, indicating high turnout, and Florida is a closed primary where you have to vote the party you are listed in. Trump will not have enough delegates after Florida and Ohio, but it is just a matter of time until he closes the primary out. i don't think Cruz has a shot in OK. i think he has a good shot in AR, however. Kasich is only trailing by 5% in OH. he stands a VERY good chance of winning that state. i rate that state currently "too close to call". Rubio seems to think he has a shot in FL, even though he trails by 18%. i don't get how Rubio wins it, honestly. but we shall see. there is absolutely no guarantee at this point that Trump has enough delegates before the convention- but i might feel differently after March 15th.
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