billisonboard
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:45:44 GMT -5
Posts: 37,512
|
Post by billisonboard on Feb 28, 2016 15:42:44 GMT -5
|
|
Value Buy
Senior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 17:57:07 GMT -5
Posts: 18,680
Today's Mood: Getting better by the day!
Location: In the middle of enjoying retirement!
Favorite Drink: Zombie Dust from Three Floyd's brewery
Mini-Profile Name Color: e61975
Mini-Profile Text Color: 196ce6
|
Post by Value Buy on Feb 28, 2016 17:43:32 GMT -5
I think Cruz is trending stronger in Texas today than when the poll used was demonstrated in the breakout. That said, Trump should be competitive, and they simply switch positions and Trump comes in fractionally behind Cruz. It looks like the rest may be shut out. Bottomline, this kills Cruz in Super Tuesday, as far as total delegate count, but he will never suspend his campaign to possibly save Rubio. Neither Cruz nor Rubio ever learned hubris
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Feb 28, 2016 18:27:29 GMT -5
I think Cruz is trending stronger in Texas today than when the poll used was demonstrated in the breakout. That said, Trump should be competitive, and they simply switch positions and Trump comes in fractionally behind Cruz. It looks like the rest may be shut out. Bottomline, this kills Cruz in Super Tuesday, as far as total delegate count, but he will never suspend his campaign to possibly save Rubio. Neither Cruz nor Rubio ever learned hubris as poorly as Cruz might do, he will do better than Rubio. so the argument becomes: why shouldn't RUBIO drop out?
|
|
tallguy
Senior Associate
Joined: Apr 2, 2011 19:21:59 GMT -5
Posts: 14,193
|
Post by tallguy on Feb 28, 2016 18:52:30 GMT -5
Was that the word you wanted? I'm of the opinion that Cruz at least is supremely hubristic, along with Trump. Humility, maybe?
|
|
Deleted
Joined: May 18, 2024 4:01:46 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2016 19:07:54 GMT -5
Cruz will do ok in Texas. But not elsewhere. With proportionality Rubio should outperform him. I think there might be a graph about proportional states somewhere
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Feb 28, 2016 19:11:25 GMT -5
Cruz will do ok in Texas. But not elsewhere. With proportionality Rubio should outperform him. I think there might be a graph about proportional states somewhere i think that Cruz will beat Rubio on delegates and move into 2nd. but this depends on Rubio getting less than 20% in Texas.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: May 18, 2024 4:01:46 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2016 19:32:07 GMT -5
Was that the word you wanted? I'm of the opinion that Cruz at least is supremely hubristic, along with Trump. Humility, maybe? Good catch. Yeah this whole batch of candidates had Hubris by the bucketful.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Feb 29, 2016 12:10:10 GMT -5
there are lots of new polls out today, on the eve of Super Tuesday. let's review them.
first of all, the national CNN/ORC poll shows both Trump and Clinton solidifying their leads.
in the Super Tuesday states, we have the following:
Trump and Clinton widening their lead in Alabama Trump widening his lead in OK Clinton has lost her lead in OK- that one is now too close to call Trump widening his lead in MA Clinton holds a narrow but consistent lead in MA Trump's lead is narrowing in MI Clinton's lead in MI is widening
the undecided vote in most of these surveys is falling into the low single digits.
not much of a change overall, other than the fact that Trump is poised to pick up even MORE delegates than before.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 1, 2016 11:22:44 GMT -5
Trump is leading in every state except the following: Alaska: too close to call Colorado: insufficient polling MN: insufficient polling Arkansas and Texas: Cruz leads it is close in Oklahoma. Trump leads by less than 10% it is possible, though unlikely, that Trump will sweep Super Tuesday. recent polling indicates that Clinton and Trump will win Tennessee comfortably. Clinton is leading in every state other than VT and OK. there is insufficient data for CO and MN. this is pretty much identical to Trump, so i would expect these two candidates to perform similarly.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 1, 2016 19:48:29 GMT -5
Sanders wins Vermont, 10/16 delegates awarded thusfar. Clinton 0/16 thusfar. Clinton wins Georgia, 57/102 delegates awarded, Sanders with 21/102. on the GOP side, Trump is flirting with 50% in the Georgia race. voting is too early in Vermont to call, but Trump is leading.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: May 18, 2024 4:01:46 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 19:51:25 GMT -5
But Kasaich was up on trump in exit polls in Vermont... And Virginia is too Close to call... So. Maybe?
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 1, 2016 19:56:35 GMT -5
But Kasaich was up on trump in exit polls in Vermont... And Virginia is too Close to call... So. Maybe? i haven't seen either of those. i am going to go get a bite to eat and do some work, then come back later.
|
|
NoNamePerson
Distinguished Associate
Is There Anybody OUT There?
Joined: Dec 17, 2010 17:03:17 GMT -5
Posts: 25,746
Location: WITNESS PROTECTION
|
Post by NoNamePerson on Mar 1, 2016 19:59:01 GMT -5
Heck, our polls aren't even closed yet. I wish they had to wait until every poll was closed and every vote counted before they talking heads start spouting off.
Oh, and thanks for this thread. I will be back in the morning to see who won what??
All the ad nauseam talk tends to make me nauseous so I can get the answer here and ignore the drones.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: May 18, 2024 4:01:46 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 19:59:59 GMT -5
Virginia too close Trump/Rubio...
I'm pretty much just following 538...
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 1, 2016 21:19:01 GMT -5
Trump and Clinton are both going to lose in OK. Clinton is leading in MA Trump won VA, but very narrowly Vermont is too close to call. Kasich only trails Trump by 2% i think the biggest news is in TX. if Rubio fails to get 20%, Cruz might conceivably get 100 delegates in TX alone. edit: Trump could conceivably lose 6 out of 11 states. wouldn't that be special?
|
|
Deleted
Joined: May 18, 2024 4:01:46 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 21:27:48 GMT -5
Looks like Trump & Clinton won Tennessee
ETA: Trump beat Rubio & Cruz by more than they both got, combined.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 1, 2016 22:05:58 GMT -5
Trump is now ahead in AR (surprisingly) Clinton still leading in MA Rubio is leading in MN- with Trump in THIRD (surprisingly)
Cruz is getting absolutely KILLED in the purple/blue states. he is barely out of single digits.
Rubio is at 18% in TX which means he would get ZERO delegates.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: May 18, 2024 4:01:46 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 22:12:24 GMT -5
And no one drops out again...
Well, Carson. ... ?
|
|
busymom
Distinguished Associate
Why is the rum always gone? Oh...that's why.
Joined: Dec 25, 2010 21:09:36 GMT -5
Posts: 28,458
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"https://cdn.nickpic.host/images/IPauJ5.jpg","color":""}
Mini-Profile Name Color: 0D317F
Mini-Profile Text Color: 0D317F
|
Post by busymom on Mar 1, 2016 22:13:16 GMT -5
Just a little something DD noticed when she went to our caucus tonight. In our state, you can only vote Democratic or Republican, and when she told the folks at the door which party she wished to vote for, they sent her to the wrong room. She reported back to me that the Republican room had cookies, while the Democratic room served nothing. (I couldn't attend tonight, but DD thought it was a great overall experience!)
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 1, 2016 22:19:12 GMT -5
i mentioned in the Nomination thread that i felt that Virginia was the best bellweather in the race.
Trump won Virginia by 2%. the polls showed him +15%
i won't say he is in trouble. i have never said that, and it has never been true. but i would be very troubled by that result if i were The Donald.
this is still not over. he has already lost (3) states, and he might lose another (2).
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 1, 2016 22:20:03 GMT -5
And no one drops out again... Well, Carson. ... ? i think Carson dropping out will help Cruz. if he does it. he got (2) delegates tonight. unfortunately, he has also said that he is going all the way to the convention.
|
|
tallguy
Senior Associate
Joined: Apr 2, 2011 19:21:59 GMT -5
Posts: 14,193
|
Post by tallguy on Mar 1, 2016 22:23:57 GMT -5
Let him stay. Anything that doesn't help Cruz is a good thing.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 1, 2016 22:26:30 GMT -5
Trump has to end up in the HIGH 200's on delegate count tonight to be "on track". i think he falls short of that.
i can post on this later, but not in this thread. gotta run.
have a good evening folks. i think this is a very interesting result. not discouraging, if you are Rubio or Cruz.
not discouraging if you are Trump, either.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Mar 1, 2016 22:27:42 GMT -5
Let him stay. Anything that doesn't help Cruz is a good thing. that is only true if Cruz is more than 10% from winning any state. which has generally been the case. Cruz might have won Arkansas without Carson there.
|
|
chiver78
Administrator
Current Events Admin
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 13:04:45 GMT -5
Posts: 38,647
|
Post by chiver78 on Mar 1, 2016 22:29:08 GMT -5
I've been watching the early returns on/off for a couple hours now, just getting back to my laptop where I can verbally vomit a little. I am honestly thoroughly disgusted by my home state, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. the most recent numbers I've seen for my state have Trump winning our primary at near 50% of the vote.
|
|
billisonboard
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:45:44 GMT -5
Posts: 37,512
|
Post by billisonboard on Mar 1, 2016 22:49:05 GMT -5
I've been watching the early returns on/off for a couple hours now, just getting back to my laptop where I can verbally vomit a little. I am honestly thoroughly disgusted by my home state, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. the most recent numbers I've seen for my state have Trump winning our primary at near 50% of the vote. He only got 20% of the total votes.
|
|
chiver78
Administrator
Current Events Admin
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 13:04:45 GMT -5
Posts: 38,647
|
Post by chiver78 on Mar 1, 2016 23:15:55 GMT -5
I've been watching the early returns on/off for a couple hours now, just getting back to my laptop where I can verbally vomit a little. I am honestly thoroughly disgusted by my home state, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. the most recent numbers I've seen for my state have Trump winning our primary at near 50% of the vote. He only got 20% of the total votes. sadly, delegates aren't always awarded by % of the total vote.
|
|
busymom
Distinguished Associate
Why is the rum always gone? Oh...that's why.
Joined: Dec 25, 2010 21:09:36 GMT -5
Posts: 28,458
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"https://cdn.nickpic.host/images/IPauJ5.jpg","color":""}
Mini-Profile Name Color: 0D317F
Mini-Profile Text Color: 0D317F
|
Post by busymom on Mar 1, 2016 23:21:42 GMT -5
Rubio has been declared the winner in Minnesota. They're still tabulating votes for the Democratic winner...
|
|
Deleted
Joined: May 18, 2024 4:01:46 GMT -5
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 23:24:00 GMT -5
Rubio has been declared the winner in Minnesota. They're still tabulating votes for the Democratic winner... Between Rubio & Cruz... if one of them HAS to win, I like Rubio much better.
|
|
Opti
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 18, 2010 10:45:38 GMT -5
Posts: 39,779
Location: New Jersey
Mini-Profile Name Color: c28523
Mini-Profile Text Color: 990033
|
Post by Opti on Mar 1, 2016 23:32:35 GMT -5
Rubio has been declared the winner in Minnesota. They're still tabulating votes for the Democratic winner... Between Rubio & Cruz... if one of them HAS to win, I like Rubio much better. How about if Trump, Rubio or Cruz has to win?
|
|