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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 23:41:24 GMT -5
Between Rubio & Cruz... if one of them HAS to win, I like Rubio much better. How about if Trump, Rubio or Cruz has to win?
Trump... unfortunately.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 2, 2016 1:23:42 GMT -5
I've been watching the early returns on/off for a couple hours now, just getting back to my laptop where I can verbally vomit a little. I am honestly thoroughly disgusted by my home state, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. the most recent numbers I've seen for my state have Trump winning our primary at near 50% of the vote. don't let it bother you. Trump won the majority of the states, but less than half the delegates today.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 2, 2016 1:27:56 GMT -5
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Mar 2, 2016 2:13:11 GMT -5
Am I missing something? Supposedly he already has 190 or so from today with a lot still to be officially allotted. The 297 is a cumulative total including what he has already won so far, correct? With the earlier 82 he needs 215 from today to stay on target. Or am I misreading it?
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 2, 2016 2:16:37 GMT -5
Am I missing something? Supposedly he already has 190 or so from today with a lot still to be officially allotted. The 297 is a cumulative total including what he has already won so far, correct? With the earlier 82 he needs 215 from today to stay on target. Or am I misreading it? nope. that is it. so, he needs 25 from Alaska, which only has 28 to give, and which he is currently LOSING. so, i think he is behind the trend. now, of course, Nate Silver might be wrong. ok. i have recovered, now.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Mar 2, 2016 2:22:23 GMT -5
But if you look at the state-by-state, there are a lot that have not been allotted yet. Texas, for example, shows Cruz with 57 and Trump with 20. That leaves 78 that have not yet been allotted, and will be based on individual districts, right? Cruz will not sweep those since he likely did not get 50% in that many districts. Other states also show a lot not pledged so far, but I'm not sure what the breakdown for each state is.
I'm not saying Nate Silver is wrong, but it doesn't look like we have anything close to final totals for the night yet.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 2, 2016 2:40:16 GMT -5
But if you look at the state-by-state, there are a lot that have not been allotted yet. Texas, for example, shows Cruz with 57 and Trump with 20. That leaves 78 that have not yet been allotted, and will be based on individual districts, right? Cruz will not sweep those since he likely did not get 50% in that many districts. Other states also show a lot not pledged so far, but I'm not sure what the breakdown for each state is.
I'm not saying Nate Silver is wrong, but it doesn't look like we have anything close to final totals for the night yet. sure. let's just keep watching, i guess.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Mar 2, 2016 2:44:14 GMT -5
Just counted up what is showing so far. Of the 595 available, it shows: Trump - 192 Cruz - 132 Rubio - 66 Kasich - 19 Carson - 3
That leaves another 183 not yet allotted. Seems like a mighty bold bet to say that Trump won't get 23 of those to reach 297 so far.... You're the expert, though, not me.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 2, 2016 2:48:12 GMT -5
Just counted up what is showing so far. Of the 595 available, it shows: Trump - 192 Cruz - 132 Rubio - 66 Kasich - 19 Carson - 3
That leaves another 183 not yet allotted. Seems like a mighty bold bet to say that Trump won't get 23 of those to reach 297 so far.... You're the expert, though, not me. a certain number might go all the way to convention. i am not above learning a thing or two, tho.
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Post by tallguy on Mar 2, 2016 3:03:39 GMT -5
You want another little fun fact, or two?
Jim Gilmore averaged twice as many votes in each Texas district weeks after he dropped out than he totaled in the Iowa state caucuses when he was still running. And, he apparently got 47% of Tuesday's vote in Chelsea, MA.
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 2, 2016 6:44:18 GMT -5
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 2, 2016 7:00:41 GMT -5
My take of last night. Texas- Trump disappointed me a little. I thought he would be a little closer to Cruz there, in the 6% to 8% range. Oklahoma- Trump failed there-he should have won. Virginia- if Kasich was not running, Rubio probably would have won there. It was that close. Alaska-Trump lost with Palin's backing? Obviously Alaska has gotten over Palin. Alaska and Texas is to the the USA like the Ukraine is to Russia. They both want to be independent countries separate from the USA So.....I guess Cruz winning both states should come as no surprise to us. Trump's speech last night- a press conference no less (that had to be a first on an election night) showed he thinks he will now win. In his own little way, he again was calling for healing in the party, and the new phrase, of "Common sense Conservative" is the new Republican party. dj should be thrilled with that! Trump showed some impressive numbers across the southern states, and yet he won big up in MA also. So, Cruz is feeling like the rooster guarding the hen house this morning. He thinks he put a chink in Donald's armour last night. I admit Cruz won enough delegates to keep his "momentum" going, but too little too late. Problem is, Rubio and Kasich will not drop out, and we repeat and rinse the race in the next few contests. tallguy and dj must have had trouble sleeping last night Posting just three hours ago, wondering when Trump will fold.
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 2, 2016 7:02:43 GMT -5
Hillary last night-wow. Game over. Her speech last night? Basically same one she gave after clobbering Bernie in South Carolina. Rinse and repeat. Didn't Rubio run into trouble doing that? Kind of disappointing really.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 2, 2016 10:26:48 GMT -5
i will generally agree with VB, but i will add one thing:
i think that Trump failed to deliver a knock-out blow last night. losing 4 contests, and having three states he won WITHIN 3% (Vermont, Virginia, and Arkansas) keeps Rubio and Cruz in the game another two weeks, at a minimum.
i think the media is bungling this, and playing to Trump's advantage. this was not a decisive win, but it was a win for Trump- and an expected one. it is just not as mighty a win as he needed to coast to the convention.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 2, 2016 10:44:55 GMT -5
recap:
Trump only got 25 more delegates than Cruz last night. at this pace, i doubt he will have enough to win the nomination by June.
ok, i am going to move further commentary to the nomination thread.
edit: according to RCP, both Hillary and Trump are on pace to win the nomination, but not by a massive margin. both are about 12% ahead of where they needed to be, as of this morning.
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Post by busymom on Mar 2, 2016 11:08:19 GMT -5
Just wanted to say that I'm proud to be living in a state where the people ignore the polls, & think for themselves. (In the final count here, Trump was in 3rd place for the Republicans. And, Sanders won the Democratic Party here.)
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 2, 2016 11:26:04 GMT -5
Just wanted to say that I'm proud to be living in a state where the people ignore the polls, & think for themselves. (In the final count here, Trump was in 3rd place for the Republicans. And, Sanders won the Democratic Party here.) yeah, that was a very pleasing result. it is how every state should look, imo. he is a 3rd rate candidate.
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 2, 2016 12:07:33 GMT -5
i will generally agree with VB, but i will add one thing: i think that Trump failed to deliver a knock-out blow last night. losing 4 contests, and having three states he won WITHIN 3% (Vermont, Virginia, and Arkansas) keeps Rubio and Cruz in the game another two weeks, at a minimum. i think the media is bungling this, and playing to Trump's advantage. this was not a decisive win, but it was a win for Trump- and an expected one. it is just not as mighty a win as he needed to coast to the convention. Have to agree. I think Trump holds Florida. Not sure about Ohio. I think Kasich can win there. I am wondering about Illinois. I have not heard anything how the Republican race is unfolding there. I do not see it as Cruz territory. Maybe they go Rubio? We really do not hear much about Republican standings in California, New Jersey or New York state, and how it will play out there. There has to be lots of delegates in those three states. I think Cruz lost his chance last night. He was originally supposed to carry the south on Super Tuesday. He didn't. I just do not see any way he gains any momentum from here on out. Rubio seems to be happy with third place. He keeps saying it is going to plan, and he will win the winner take all states. Oh boy...............
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 2, 2016 17:47:43 GMT -5
i will generally agree with VB, but i will add one thing: i think that Trump failed to deliver a knock-out blow last night. losing 4 contests, and having three states he won WITHIN 3% (Vermont, Virginia, and Arkansas) keeps Rubio and Cruz in the game another two weeks, at a minimum. i think the media is bungling this, and playing to Trump's advantage. this was not a decisive win, but it was a win for Trump- and an expected one. it is just not as mighty a win as he needed to coast to the convention. Have to agree. I think Trump holds Florida. Not sure about Ohio. I think Kasich can win there. I am wondering about Illinois. I have not heard anything how the Republican race is unfolding there. I do not see it as Cruz territory. Maybe they go Rubio? We really do not hear much about Republican standings in California, New Jersey or New York state, and how it will play out there. There has to be lots of delegates in those three states. I think Cruz lost his chance last night. He was originally supposed to carry the south on Super Tuesday. He didn't. I just do not see any way he gains any momentum from here on out. Rubio seems to be happy with third place. He keeps saying it is going to plan, and he will win the winner take all states. Oh boy............... Rubio is madly behind. he needs another 100 delegates, like...now. and this Saturday is not Rubio territory. he will probably lose all four of THOSE states, as well. this is shaping up really badly for everyone other than Trump- but it is not really GREAT for him, either. it is just "OK".
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 2, 2016 19:46:05 GMT -5
How can it not be going great for Trump, if he is going to win all the states coming up? Hillary should have had that problem in 2008
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 2, 2016 19:49:42 GMT -5
How can it not be going great for Trump, if he is going to win all the states coming up? Hillary should have had that problem in 2008 don't say ALL. it makes people look dumb when they do that.
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Post by Value Buy on Mar 2, 2016 19:55:46 GMT -5
How can it not be going great for Trump, if he is going to win all the states coming up? Hillary should have had that problem in 2008 don't say ALL. it makes people look dumb when they do that. Sorry, I was referencing your previous statement where you said Rubio had no chance in the upcoming states. I guess it was four states?
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 2, 2016 19:57:38 GMT -5
don't say ALL. it makes people look dumb when they do that. Sorry, I was referencing your previous statement where you said Rubio had no chance in the upcoming states. I guess it was four states? yeah. did i really say that? polling is too thin to tell anything, but the demographics are bad for him in those four states. but for the record, i think Cruz has a chance in some of those states. Kansas particularly. edit: no, i didn't say that- i said he will PROBABLY lose. i have no way of telling. but it doesn't seem like Rubio Country to me.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2016 20:00:19 GMT -5
Is there really any more Cruz territory?
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Post by dondub on Mar 2, 2016 20:04:52 GMT -5
I would be surprised if he doesn't win Kansas as they seem to be full of the Cruz type.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 2, 2016 20:10:37 GMT -5
Is there really any more Cruz territory? there are a lot of states that he SHOULD win. deep South, midwest.... but it would require Trump to lose some ground.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2016 20:25:48 GMT -5
recap: Trump only got 25 more delegates than Cruz last night. at this pace, i doubt he will have enough to win the nomination by June. ok, i am going to move further commentary to the nomination thread. edit: according to RCP, both Hillary and Trump are on pace to win the nomination, but not by a massive margin. both are about 12% ahead of where they needed to be, as of this morning. The final was more than 25 wasn't it? And how much of that as Texas. Awesome Texas is for their boy... But you can't win the whole shebang with Texas...
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 2, 2016 20:28:57 GMT -5
recap: Trump only got 25 more delegates than Cruz last night. at this pace, i doubt he will have enough to win the nomination by June. ok, i am going to move further commentary to the nomination thread. edit: according to RCP, both Hillary and Trump are on pace to win the nomination, but not by a massive margin. both are about 12% ahead of where they needed to be, as of this morning. The final was more than 25 wasn't it? And how much of that as Texas. Awesome Texas is for their boy... But you can't win the whole shebang with Texas... +28 he really just BARELY won, but that is not how the media is portraying it, is it?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2016 20:39:12 GMT -5
I can't find final numbers, where are you?
If you take Texas out as an anonoly, what happens?
538 says 254 to 217 which is +37.
Remove Texas, and it's 216 to 118 which is + 98.
I know, what sense does it make to remove Texas... But it is so obvious a state unlike any other in terms of Cruz likely results... If it had been another day, there would be no 'close' narrative.
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Post by tallguy on Mar 2, 2016 21:06:20 GMT -5
Just counted up what is showing so far. Of the 595 available, it shows: Trump - 192 Cruz - 132 Rubio - 66 Kasich - 19 Carson - 3
That leaves another 183 not yet allotted. Seems like a mighty bold bet to say that Trump won't get 23 of those to reach 297 so far.... You're the expert, though, not me. a certain number might go all the way to convention. i am not above learning a thing or two, tho. So, uh, dj?
I haven't been in a math class for a long time, but isn't 336 more than 297?
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